Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy PERFECT...

Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets!Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets!Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development StrategyWhole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy

PERFECT STORMPERFECT STORMTo Hit Job Markets!To Hit Job Markets!


22 Aging Aging PopulationPopulation

33 Upskilling Upskillingof Jobsof Jobs

44 Unprepared UnpreparedWorkforceWorkforce

Storm WarningsStorm Warnings4 Converging Megatrends4 Converging Megatrends

11 Great Great RecessionRecession


• GGlobal economy in the throes of thelobal economy in the throes of the

worst economic storm in a centuryworst economic storm in a century• Jobs in jeopardyJobs in jeopardy• Recovery slow and falteringRecovery slow and faltering• Governments in record debtGovernments in record debt

• GGlobal economy in the throes of thelobal economy in the throes of the

worst economic storm in a centuryworst economic storm in a century• Jobs in jeopardyJobs in jeopardy• Recovery slow and falteringRecovery slow and faltering• Governments in record debtGovernments in record debt

Megatrend 1:Megatrend 1:

The Great RecessionThe Great RecessionMegatrend 1:Megatrend 1:

The Great RecessionThe Great Recession



Aging PopulationAging PopulationPredictable DemographicsPredictable Demographics


Aging PopulationAging PopulationPredictable DemographicsPredictable Demographics

• Birth rate in decline since 1967Birth rate in decline since 1967• Marriage & childbirth later, fewer childrenMarriage & childbirth later, fewer children• Boomers retiring (1947-64) Boomers retiring (1947-64) • Labour force participation rate decliningLabour force participation rate declining• Immigration can’t offset natural declineImmigration can’t offset natural decline

• Birth rate in decline since 1967Birth rate in decline since 1967• Marriage & childbirth later, fewer childrenMarriage & childbirth later, fewer children• Boomers retiring (1947-64) Boomers retiring (1947-64) • Labour force participation rate decliningLabour force participation rate declining• Immigration can’t offset natural declineImmigration can’t offset natural decline


Percent of Canadian PopulationPercent of Canadian Population15-64 Years of Age15-64 Years of Age

Percent of Canadian PopulationPercent of Canadian Population15-64 Years of Age15-64 Years of Age


20122012 420,000 420,00020162016 950,000 950,00020212021 1,550,0001,550,00020262026 2,080,0002,080,00020312031 2,760,0002,760,000

20122012 420,000 420,00020162016 950,000 950,00020212021 1,550,0001,550,00020262026 2,080,0002,080,00020312031 2,760,0002,760,000

Projected Worker ShortfallProjected Worker ShortfallProjected Worker ShortfallProjected Worker Shortfall

Rick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without PeopleRick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People[Figures projected nationally from Miner’s Ontario (38%) medium growth estimates][Figures projected nationally from Miner’s Ontario (38%) medium growth estimates]

Rick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without PeopleRick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People[Figures projected nationally from Miner’s Ontario (38%) medium growth estimates][Figures projected nationally from Miner’s Ontario (38%) medium growth estimates]

• Vast majority of 2031 work force has already been bornVast majority of 2031 work force has already been born• Immigration – 280,000 (family, credentials, competition)Immigration – 280,000 (family, credentials, competition)• Under-represented - poor, aboriginals, women, disabledUnder-represented - poor, aboriginals, women, disabled

• Vast majority of 2031 work force has already been bornVast majority of 2031 work force has already been born• Immigration – 280,000 (family, credentials, competition)Immigration – 280,000 (family, credentials, competition)• Under-represented - poor, aboriginals, women, disabledUnder-represented - poor, aboriginals, women, disabled



Upskilling of JobsUpskilling of JobsAccelerating Knowledge EconomyAccelerating Knowledge Economy


Upskilling of JobsUpskilling of JobsAccelerating Knowledge EconomyAccelerating Knowledge Economy

Rick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without PeopleRick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without PeopleRick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without PeopleRick Miner, February 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People


Businesses Can’t Find TalentBusinesses Can’t Find Talent

Overall, 52% of businesses surveyed are having a Overall, 52% of businesses surveyed are having a difficult time recruiting for specific jobs. difficult time recruiting for specific jobs.

• 71% of high-tech companies71% of high-tech companies• 68% of manufacturers68% of manufacturers• 49% of financial firms49% of financial firms• 59% of professional services firms59% of professional services firms• 51% of construction, mining, oil and gas 51% of construction, mining, oil and gas companiescompanies• 33% of state and local governments33% of state and local governments• 31% of federal government agencies31% of federal government agencies

Society for Human Resources Managers (SHRM), Society for Human Resources Managers (SHRM), Leading Indicators of Leading Indicators of National Employment SurveyNational Employment Survey, November, 2011, November, 2011


Frustrating ParadoxFrustrating ParadoxIn a period of high unemployment, 600,000 jobs remain In a period of high unemployment, 600,000 jobs remain unfilled because manufacturers cannot find skilled unfilled because manufacturers cannot find skilled workers.workers.

• 52% report lack of problem solving skills52% report lack of problem solving skills• 43% report lack of industry certification or vocational 43% report lack of industry certification or vocational trainingtraining• 40% report lack of basic employability (soft) skills40% report lack of basic employability (soft) skills• 36% report lack of technology or computer skills36% report lack of technology or computer skills

NotablyNotably, inadequate math, reading, and writing skills , inadequate math, reading, and writing skills weren't seen as being as serious as other concerns.weren't seen as being as serious as other concerns.

Manufacturing Institute Fall, October 2011Manufacturing Institute Fall, October 2011


With the double shock we're experiencing With the double shock we're experiencing now - now - globalizationglobalization and and computer-aided computer-aided industrial productivityindustrial productivity - income inequality - income inequality is growing, as the rewards for being skilled is growing, as the rewards for being skilled grow and the opportunities for the grow and the opportunities for the unskilled diminish.unskilled diminish.

Adam Davidson, Adam Davidson, Making It in AmericaMaking It in America, the Atlantic, Jan/Feb 2012, the Atlantic, Jan/Feb 2012

Income Inequality GrowsIncome Inequality GrowsIncome Inequality GrowsIncome Inequality Grows


New & Changing JobsNew & Changing JobsThere’s never been a better time to imagine career prospects!There’s never been a better time to imagine career prospects!

New & Changing JobsNew & Changing JobsThere’s never been a better time to imagine career prospects!There’s never been a better time to imagine career prospects!

• Nano-mechanicNano-mechanic• Old age wellness managerOld age wellness manager• Memory augmentation surgeonMemory augmentation surgeon• Weather modification policeWeather modification police• Waste data handlerWaste data handler• Social networking workerSocial networking worker• Personal brander/communications Personal brander/communications advisoradvisor• Stem cell bank managerStem cell bank manager

Adam Gordon, August 2009, Jobs of the Future, Science and Adam Gordon, August 2009, Jobs of the Future, Science and Technology Enabled Employment 2020-2030Technology Enabled Employment 2020-2030

• Nano-mechanicNano-mechanic• Old age wellness managerOld age wellness manager• Memory augmentation surgeonMemory augmentation surgeon• Weather modification policeWeather modification police• Waste data handlerWaste data handler• Social networking workerSocial networking worker• Personal brander/communications Personal brander/communications advisoradvisor• Stem cell bank managerStem cell bank manager

Adam Gordon, August 2009, Jobs of the Future, Science and Adam Gordon, August 2009, Jobs of the Future, Science and Technology Enabled Employment 2020-2030Technology Enabled Employment 2020-2030



Unprepared WorkforceUnprepared WorkforceEducation System and EmployersEducation System and Employers


Unprepared WorkforceUnprepared WorkforceEducation System and EmployersEducation System and Employers

The Talent PipelineThe Talent PipelineThe Talent PipelineThe Talent Pipeline


National HS graduation rate 79% National HS graduation rate 79% (Education Indicators 2011, (Education Indicators 2011, Statistics Canada & Council of Ministers of Education Canada)Statistics Canada & Council of Ministers of Education Canada)

60% of HS grads (47%) register immediately for post-60% of HS grads (47%) register immediately for post-secondary programs secondary programs (King, 2009, Who Doesn’t Go To Post-Secondary (King, 2009, Who Doesn’t Go To Post-Secondary Education?)Education?)

25% of post-secondary students dropout by the end 25% of post-secondary students dropout by the end of the first year. A similar percent change programs or of the first year. A similar percent change programs or majors majors (Miner, 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People)(Miner, 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People)

National HS graduation rate 79% National HS graduation rate 79% (Education Indicators 2011, (Education Indicators 2011, Statistics Canada & Council of Ministers of Education Canada)Statistics Canada & Council of Ministers of Education Canada)

60% of HS grads (47%) register immediately for post-60% of HS grads (47%) register immediately for post-secondary programs secondary programs (King, 2009, Who Doesn’t Go To Post-Secondary (King, 2009, Who Doesn’t Go To Post-Secondary Education?)Education?)

25% of post-secondary students dropout by the end 25% of post-secondary students dropout by the end of the first year. A similar percent change programs or of the first year. A similar percent change programs or majors majors (Miner, 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People)(Miner, 2010, People Without Jobs, Jobs Without People)

The Pipeline LeaksThe Pipeline LeaksThe Pipeline LeaksThe Pipeline Leaks


Of 100 students in the educational pipeline in grade 9 Of 100 students in the educational pipeline in grade 9 each year …each year …

29 will graduate on schedule with a post-secondary 29 will graduate on schedule with a post-secondary degree, diploma or certificatedegree, diploma or certificate

50% will not be in jobs directly related to their 50% will not be in jobs directly related to their majors 2 years after majors 2 years after graduation graduation (Statistics Canada and Human (Statistics Canada and Human Resources & Skills Development Canada, School Leavers Survey)Resources & Skills Development Canada, School Leavers Survey)

Many carry heavy student loan debt with unclear Many carry heavy student loan debt with unclear employment prospectsemployment prospects

Of 100 students in the educational pipeline in grade 9 Of 100 students in the educational pipeline in grade 9 each year …each year …

29 will graduate on schedule with a post-secondary 29 will graduate on schedule with a post-secondary degree, diploma or certificatedegree, diploma or certificate

50% will not be in jobs directly related to their 50% will not be in jobs directly related to their majors 2 years after majors 2 years after graduation graduation (Statistics Canada and Human (Statistics Canada and Human Resources & Skills Development Canada, School Leavers Survey)Resources & Skills Development Canada, School Leavers Survey)

Many carry heavy student loan debt with unclear Many carry heavy student loan debt with unclear employment prospectsemployment prospects

End of the PipelineEnd of the PipelineEnd of the PipelineEnd of the Pipeline


More Demanding Labour MarketMore Demanding Labour Market(Upskilling)(Upskilling)

More Demanding Labour MarketMore Demanding Labour Market(Upskilling)(Upskilling)

““Over the past third of a century Over the past third of a century allall net job growth net job growthhas been generated by positions requiring somehas been generated by positions requiring some

post-secondary education.”post-secondary education.”Pathways to Prosperity, February 2011, Harvard Graduate School of EducationPathways to Prosperity, February 2011, Harvard Graduate School of Education

““Only 14% of undergrads enroll in STEM subjects.Only 14% of undergrads enroll in STEM subjects.Only 2 in 5 will graduate with a STEM degree orOnly 2 in 5 will graduate with a STEM degree orcertification within 6 years. We must do better.”certification within 6 years. We must do better.”

President Obama, June 2011President Obama, June 2011


Potential Labour CrisisPotential Labour CrisisPotential Labour CrisisPotential Labour Crisis

““Canada is already facing a labour crunch as Canada is already facing a labour crunch as baby boomers retire. It could turn into a baby boomers retire. It could turn into a

labour crisis if the education system is not labour crisis if the education system is not fixed.”fixed.”

Dr. Paul CapponDr. Paul CapponCanadian Council on LearningCanadian Council on Learning


Bottom Line RequirementBottom Line RequirementBottom Line RequirementBottom Line Requirement

Implement in all education and training sites Implement in all education and training sites the best available:the best available:

1.1. experiential career learning programs for experiential career learning programs for allall primary, middle, secondary and post-primary, middle, secondary and post-secondary studentssecondary students

2.2. career exploration and planning systemcareer exploration and planning system3.3. electronic portfolio system electronic portfolio system (all levels plus (all levels plus

adults)adults)4.4. course planning system course planning system (ILP for every student)(ILP for every student)5.5. online networking system to connect online networking system to connect

students with informed dreams to employers students with informed dreams to employers seeking talentseeking talent


The Perfect Talent Storm makes a The Perfect Talent Storm makes a

harmonized, whole-community harmonized, whole-community

commitment to career and workforce commitment to career and workforce

development andevelopment an

economic imperativeeconomic imperative. .

The Perfect Talent Storm makes a The Perfect Talent Storm makes a

harmonized, whole-community harmonized, whole-community

commitment to career and workforce commitment to career and workforce

development andevelopment an

economic imperativeeconomic imperative. .


Economic Imperative?Economic Imperative?

Businesses drive economic prosperityBusinesses drive economic prosperityGood employees power successful businessesGood employees power successful businesses

30% of employees are fully engaged 30% of employees are fully engaged (productivity)(productivity)25% of students are fully engaged 25% of students are fully engaged (achievement)(achievement)The majority graduate without clear career The majority graduate without clear career goals goals (Harvard)(Harvard)

Students need to be ready to step into success Students need to be ready to step into success when they graduate. Companies need to when they graduate. Companies need to identify future talent earlier (ccInspire).identify future talent earlier (ccInspire).


What is the purpose of K-What is the purpose of K-12 education?12 education? To qualify for university entrance?To qualify for university entrance? To qualify for employment?To qualify for employment? To prepare for success in life?To prepare for success in life?


Life typically now involves more working hoursLife typically now involves more working hoursthan anything but sleep for 40 years or more.than anything but sleep for 40 years or more.

(Better be emotionally engaged and enjoy it)(Better be emotionally engaged and enjoy it)

Image from Image from The Real GameThe Real Game for middle school for middle school studentsstudents


Sports AnalogySports AnalogyWe discover hockey potential at a very young ageWe discover hockey potential at a very young age

Most others must find their way through the educationalMost others must find their way through the educationalmaze then see if anyone wants them.maze then see if anyone wants them.


ChoosingOccupationWorkInformationLists

ChoosingOccupationWorkInformationLists

Career and WorkforceDevelopment

Paradigm Shift

Career and WorkforceDevelopment

Paradigm Shift

LearningSkills

LifeImagination

Introductions

LearningSkills

LifeImagination

Introductions


Helping students imagine the future they want to Helping students imagine the future they want to createcreate

““Your imagination is a preview of life’s coming attractions.” Your imagination is a preview of life’s coming attractions.” Albert Einstein Albert Einstein

““I wish The Real Game was MANDATORY for all students. The information I wish The Real Game was MANDATORY for all students. The information and life experience it provides are more valuable than some required and life experience it provides are more valuable than some required

coursework. Giving our students the tools they need to be successful in “the coursework. Giving our students the tools they need to be successful in “the real world” should be our first priority.” real world” should be our first priority.” Tanya McKay, First Northern Bank, Tanya McKay, First Northern Bank,

Woodland, CA, April 2011Woodland, CA, April 2011


Case StudyCase Study• 99thth grade NC student - bright, but hated school grade NC student - bright, but hated school• Couldn’t wait for school day to end to dropCouldn’t wait for school day to end to drop another transmissionanother transmission• Exposed to F4K, Career Cruising, Real GameExposed to F4K, Career Cruising, Real Game• Passion and talents for things mechanicalPassion and talents for things mechanical becomes evidentbecomes evident• Receives invitation from companiesReceives invitation from companies• John Deere relationship evolves (mentorship,John Deere relationship evolves (mentorship, job shadowing, summer jobs)job shadowing, summer jobs)


Case StudyCase Study• 99thth grade NC student - bright, but hated school grade NC student - bright, but hated school• Couldn’t wait for school day to end to dropCouldn’t wait for school day to end to drop another transmissionanother transmission• Exposed to F4K, Career Cruising, Real GameExposed to F4K, Career Cruising, Real Game• Passion and talents for things mechanicalPassion and talents for things mechanical becomes evidentbecomes evident• Receives invitation from companiesReceives invitation from companies• John Deere relationship evolves (mentorship,John Deere relationship evolves (mentorship, job shadowing, summer jobs)job shadowing, summer jobs)

OutcomeOutcomeJohn Deere paid tuition for 2-year Community CollegeJohn Deere paid tuition for 2-year Community College

Small Engine Repair course then hired at $50K, loan free.Small Engine Repair course then hired at $50K, loan free.


Expected ResultsExpected ResultsTo be measuredTo be measured

Expected ResultsExpected ResultsTo be measuredTo be measured

• More informed, purposeful, engaged, and higherMore informed, purposeful, engaged, and higher achieving students - happier teachers andachieving students - happier teachers and parentsparents• Reduced truancy and bullyingReduced truancy and bullying• Higher productivity for employers with reducedHigher productivity for employers with reduced recruiting and retention costsrecruiting and retention costs• Reduced costs for support programs (alternativeReduced costs for support programs (alternative education, drug and substance abuse, socialeducation, drug and substance abuse, social assistance, welfare, corrections)assistance, welfare, corrections)• More engaged, self-reliant, resilient citizensMore engaged, self-reliant, resilient citizens• Pride of accomplishment shared by communityPride of accomplishment shared by community


ConsequencesConsequencesof staying the courseof staying the course

ConsequencesConsequencesof staying the courseof staying the course

• Ongoing unacceptable levels of studentOngoing unacceptable levels of student underachievement and disengagementunderachievement and disengagement• Continued faltering in school to work transitionsContinued faltering in school to work transitions• Continued out-migration of talentContinued out-migration of talent• Increasing recruitment challenges for employersIncreasing recruitment challenges for employers• More storm victims in future job marketsMore storm victims in future job markets• Reduced community prosperityReduced community prosperity

Government Budget Impact: RevenuesGovernment Budget Impact: Revenues(personal income, business and consumption (personal income, business and consumption taxes, G/HST), education, social assistance, taxes, G/HST), education, social assistance, corrections, health corrections, health

Perfect Storm To Hit Job Markets! Whole-Community Career & Workforce Development Strategy PERFECT...

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