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![Page 1: percentage of total variance over decade – associated with forced component – associated with internal variability p and p tend to be inverses of one.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070404/56649f395503460f94c567ef/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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• percentage of total variance over decade– associated with forced
component– associated with internal
variability
• pW and pn tend to be inverses of one another so p = pW + pn is more uniform than either
pW
pn
p
Potential predictability of temperature for 2010-20
(“next decade”)
Boer 2008
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CMIP5 Experiment Design
“Long-Term”(century & longer)
TIER 1
TIER 2
CORE“realistic”
diagnostic
“Near-Term”(decadal)
(initialized ocean state)
prediction & predictability
CORE
TIER 1
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Decadal forecast results to 2015
CCCma
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U. Miami
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© Crown copyright Met Office
We are exchanging very basic quantities:Global Annual Mean Temperature
One file for each year, each memberExchanged once per year around
NovemberEqual ownership
Example diagnostics:
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Annual global temperature
(20)
(9)
(9)
(3)
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Annual global temperature
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Surface temperature: 2011relative to 1971-2000
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Surface temperature: 2012
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Surface temperature: 2013
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Surface temperature: 2012-16
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Surface temperature: 2015-19
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© Crown copyright Met Office
We’ve had an overwhelmingly positive response:
GFDL – Tony Rosati Uni. Tokyo – Kimoto MasahideMRI – Masayoshi Ishii SMHI – Klaus Wyser,Colin Jones
KNMI – Wilco Hazeleger IC3 – Francisco Doblas-ReyesMPI – Daniela Matei RSMAS – Ben KirtmanCCCMA-EC – George Boer IfM-GEOMAR - Mojib LatifCERFACS – Laurent Terray UKMO-Hadley – Doug Smith
Are others planning to make regular decadal predictions? If so, would you like to take part?