PEERLESS MASTER PICKS -MONTHLY · hdfc bank 1779 28-jul-17 1950 accumulate 1776.00 open britannia...

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31

st August 2017

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PORTFOLIO PICKS

STOCK PICKS FOR SEPTEMBER 2017

Stock price in INR

COMPANY SECTOR

MARKET CAP(INR

CR) CMP (INR) RATING

POTENTIAL TARGET

POTENTIAL UPSIDE

NESTLE INDIA Consumer Staples 68465 7121 ACCUMULATE 7700 8.13%

BALKRISHNA IND Speciality Tyre 15165 1568 ACCUMULATE 1800 14.80%

DR REDDY Pharma 33502 2021 BUY 2500 23.70%

CESC Power Distribution 13464 1016 BUY 1200 18.11%

BAJAJ AUTO Auto 2 & 3 Wheelers 81267 2815 ACCUMULATE 3100 10.12%

Time horizon of the recommended stock picks: 12 months unless specified

Market Outlook:

Indian equity markets consolidate its recent gains in the month of August and flows from Foreign

institutional desk was negative (outflow of USD 2 billion) on geo political uncertainty and weakness in US

dollar also affecting investors sentiment. However flows from domestic institutional investors were quite

strong and expected to remain strong in near term. Benchmark Nifty shed nearly 1.6 percent in the month

amid volatility. Recent rally in last few months has made stock prices overvalued in some sectors and

pockets of markets and risk reward is not favorably placed for short term. However, strong liquidity and

expectations of faster recovery in earnings, stability in political establishment in India could provide markets

at lower levels and India remains a "buy on dip Markets" .We are cautiously optimistic on Indian equities.

US Fed would sets the process to wind down its massive USD 4.5 trillion balance sheet “relatively soon” in

part its exercise to normalize the interest rate and it is expected that gradual approach of Fed could mitigate

the risk of adverse effects on market functioning or outsized effects on interest rates. The process comes as

the Fed is on a gradual path towards interest rate hike cycle. Fed is expected to hike interest rate by 25 bps

by December 2017.

Market likely to be volatile in near term as valuation is stretched in near term. Geo political and protectionist

policies are the biggest risk in equity markets performance globally. Q1FY18 Earnings session in India was

mixed with Cement companies and selects private banks posted reasonably robust numbers whereas

growth momentum for IT and Pharma companies continues to be weak. Earnings recovery may kicks in the

early 2018 and increase in government's spending would help to capex recovery in 2018.

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UPDATE ON AUGUST 2017 STOCK PICKS

STOCK

CALL INITATED AT (INR) DATE

POTENTIAL TARGET RATING

PRICE(31 AUG 2017) REMARKS

HDFC BANK 1779 28-Jul-17 1950 ACCUMULATE 1776.00 OPEN

BRITANNIA INDUSTRIES 3907 28-Jul-17 4270 ACCUMULATE 4231 TARGET ACHVD

MGL 986 28-Jul-17 1100 ACCUMULATE 1044.00 OPEN

CAPITAL FIRST LTD 767 28-Jul-17 850 ACCUMULATE 723.00 OPEN

BATA INDIA 575 28-Jul-17 680 BUY

680.85 TARGET ACHVD

Stock price in INR

Performance reports of recommended stock return in this report are carried on cash closing price and the call deemed to be open (for 12 months) on F&O expiry date of respective month until target is revised downward/upward depending on companies’ future performance. We have now revised this stock return performance policy from 30 Sep 2016(Oct derivative series) onwards and STOPLOSS BASIS stock calls are not given.

How Benchmark Index- Nifty moved in AUGUST 2017

OPEN: 10101 HIGH: 9685 CLOSE:9918

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Global Economy Update:

1) World Economy preparing for the faster growth:

Now World Economy is looking good for taking its’ position for faster and firmer growth, after rising it’s

most rapid pace in 2.5 years in the second quarter. As per the economist’s pointer – The improvement

in World Economy and set for sustainable future growth broadly back by improvement in Japan and

Euro area picks up, as these areas of economy was shirker over last period of time. And the more

sustainable outlook seen as Japan and Euro areas are not generating much in the way of inflation. As

per the chief international economist of Deutsch – “The global economy is in better shape than it has

been in several years, we just don't see what would be a trigger for a recession." Also the Global GDP

is projected to increase by 3.4% this year and 3.5% next year, based on a median forecast of

economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

2) The next big enemy for World Economy would be raising China’s debt:

As per the IMF projection China’s debt would be increase to 300% of its’ GDP by early next decade. As

per the IMF director "noted that economic activity had recently firmed and saw this as an opportunity to

accelerate needed reforms and focus more on the quality and sustainability of growth". As per the IMF

report the trade surplus receding to 3 per cent of GDP in 2022 from 4.4 per cent last year. China's

deficit in services is going in the opposite direction, widening to 2.5 per cent from 2.2 per cent in the

same period. The current account surplus is on course to almost disappear. It will shrink to just 0.4 per

cent of GDP in 2022.

3) US Fed may slow down in the pace of interest rate hikes: As the concern of mounted over lagging

inflation the US fed may possible slowing down the hike of interest rate. As per FOMC "could afford to

be patient under current circumstances in deciding when to increase the federal funds rate further" and

said it should hold off on additional adjustments until "incoming information confirmed that the recent

low readings on inflation were not likely to persist". As the Fed’s targeted inflation was 2% since 2012,

but since then it was averaged at 1.3%.

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Indian Economy Wrap: Key Statistics:

1) July inflation surge back by higher food vegetable prices: India's retail inflation jump to 2.36% in July

from 1.46% in June 2017, numbers showing the implementation of GST and 7th pay commission. In

food basket of CPI Sugar and prepare meals are rises by 3.82% and 5.04%, while tobacco product’s

inflation rises about 6.39% in July. While the WPI rises by 1.88% in July back by increases in food and

mineral prices, it raises by 0.90% from June 2017.

2) June IIP numbers are lower in four years, with highly negative growth in Electrical apparatus: The IIP

index is 0.1% lower as compared to the level in the month of June 2016. The cumulative growth for the

period April-June 2017 over the corresponding period of the previous year stands at 2.0 percent. The

industry group ‘Manufacture of electrical equipment’ has shown the highest negative growth of (-) 20.1

percent followed by (-) 11.1 percent in ‘Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and

equipment’.

3) RBI expectedly cuts repo rate by 25 bps: The August bi-monthly policy meet RBI reduce the policy

repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points from 6.25 per cent to 6.0%.

Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF stands adjusted to 5.75%, and the MSF rate and

the Bank Rate to 6.25%. The decision of the MPC is consistent with a neutral stance of monetary policy

in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium-term target for consumer price index (CPI)

inflation of 4% within a band of +/- 2%, while supporting growth. As per the MEC review - on the state of

the economy, the MPC is of the view that there is an urgent need to reinvigorate private investment,

remove infrastructure bottlenecks and provide a major thrust to the PMAY for housing needs of all. This

hinges on speedier clearance of projects by the States. On their part, the Government and the Reserve

Bank are working in close coordination to resolve large stressed corporate borrowers and recapitalize

public sector banks within the fiscal deficit target. These efforts should help restart credit flows to the

productive sectors as demand revives.

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STOCK PICKS

Company Data

Market Cap (cr) 68465

52 week high (Rs) 7140

52 week low (Rs) 5656

3m average volume NSE 37985

Beta 0.53

Face value ( RS ) 10

Shareholding (%) Q2CY 2017

Promoters 62.76%

Institutions 19.77%

Non-Institutions 17.46%

Key Financials

CY16 CY15 CY14

Net Sales (Cr) 9223.8 8175.3 9854.8

EBITDA (Cr) 1891.7 1418.4 2093.2

PAT (Cr) 926.5 563.3 1184.7

Net Profit Margin (%) 10.0% 6.9% 12.0%

EPS (RS) 96.1 58.4 122.9

Book Value (Cr) 3013.7 2817.8 2837.2

P/E 72.0 118.4 56.3

P/BV 19.3 19.9 21.7

RoNW(%) 30.7% 20.0% 41.8%

RoCE(%) 17.9% 12.2% 26.5%

Nestle India Ltd. Sector: Food Processing NSE CODE: NESTLEIND

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 7121| Target: Rs 7700

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock has been consolidating over last three

months in a broader range of 6400-6800 and has

been making higher top higher bottom formation.

During this period , pattern wise formation of

symmetrical triangle has been formed. Recently the

stock broke out of the pattern and that too with

strong volumes implying start of fresh upmove in

short to medium term. Momentum indicators RSI is

in strength & ADX with Moving up thereby showing

that the stock will move up

Pattern wise breakout target comes to much higher

levels but we give target of 7700 in time frame of

around next 12 months

NESTLÉ India is a subsidiary of NESTLÉ S.A. of

Switzerland. With eight factories and a large number

of co-packers, Nestlé India is a vibrant Company

that provides consumers in India with products of

global standards and is committed to long-term

sustainable growth.

In H1CY17 revenue of the company stood at Rs.

5044 crore, with a growth of 8.2% Y-o-Y. The half

yearly operating profit was Rs. 820 crores, it is

16.2% of sales, and it’s lower by 210bps. The PAT

was Rs. 570 crore. The PAT for the half yearly has

grown by 7.5% over the period in the previous year.

In H1CY17 domestic volume growth was 9.5% to

188.7 (000’ tons) from 172.3 (000’ tons) in same

period of last year. Domestic Sales Growth

supported by rebuild of Maggi Noodles and New

Products.

Some of the key initiative like - Launch new

products in each category; Key role of penetration,

frequency and insight led innovation; Fast, Focused,

Flexible in thought and action; Embrace powerful

ways of working etc. will Drive Volumes and

Sustain Profitability.

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Company Data





Beta 0.74

Face value ( RS ) 2

Shareholding (%) Q1FY2018

Promoters 54.4%

Institutions 31.9%


Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 3727.0 3239.5 3816.8

EBITDA (Cr) 1384.6 996.4 1004.8

PAT (Cr) 1058.6 674.2 713.3 Net Profit Margin (%) 19.2% 17.7% 12.4%

EPS (RS) 73.1 44.5 48.4

Book Value (Cr) 3523.5 2768.5 2256.6

P/E 21.3 34.9 32.1

P/BV 3.8 2.2 2.7

RoNW(%) 22.7% 17.6% 22.7%

RoCE(%) 22.4% 15.3% 17.0%

Balkrishna Industries Ltd. Sector: Auto Tyre & Rubber Products NSE CODE: BALKRISIND

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 1568 | Target: Rs 1800

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock underwent medium term correction from 1740

to around 1450 which has been its 38.2% Fibonacci

retracement of the current rally from around 1000.

Thereafter it gave a massive price volume breakout which

broke past its previous last high of 1564. Trend indicator

of the stock, Moving average convergence

diverenge(MACD) has giving buy signal after 2 months

and historically whenever it does so, the price moves up

consistently.

Stock has made higher base and now ready to move up

above its recent high and we expect price target of 1800 in

next 1 year.

The company mainly operates in one single segment i.e.

“tyres” with focus on manufacture of wide range of “Off-

Highway Tyres”(OHT), which are mainly used in

Agricultural, Industrial & Construction, Earthmover &

Port, Mining, Forestry, Lawn & Garden and All Terrain

Vehicles (ATV). More than 80% of revenue is generated

through exports.

In Q1FY17 standalone revenue of the company stood at Rs

1076 crore, improve by 10% Y-o-Y. The EBITDA for the

quarter was Rs. 275 crore, decreases by 1% Y-o-Y; and the

margin was lower by 300bps to 25.5% due to higher raw

material costs. The PBT and the PAT were Rs. 228 crore

and Rs. 153 crore. The PAT for the quarter has grown by

3%, and the contraction in margin was for higher tax, i.e

margin contracted by 90 bps to 14.2%.

Outlook for FY18:

Revival in commodity cycle and overall good agricultural

activities across the globe will help the industry to grow

faster.

Also expects volume of 185,000-190,000 tons for the

current fiscal, implying growth of 7-10 per cent.

With focused on specialist segments i.e. agricultural,

construction and industrial vehicles as well as earthmoving,

port and mining, ATV and gardening applications will

helps to drive the growth.

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Company Data





Beta 0.48

Face value ( RS ) 5

Shareholding (%) Q1 FY 2018

Promoters 26.78%

Institutions 43.38%


Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 14196.1 15568.3 15023.3

EBITDA (Cr) 2643.7 3880.3 3767.7


EPS (RS) 77.5 126.1 137.2

Book Value (Cr) 12262.1 11700.9 9853.1

P/E 26.4 16.2 14.9

P/BV 3.6 4.4 6.0

RoNW(%) 10.5% 18.4% 23.7%

RoCE(%) 9.6% 16.3% 19.8%

Dr.Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. Sector: Pharmaceuticals NSE CODE: DRREDDY

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 2021 | Target: Rs 2500

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock in long term has completed its long term

corrective pattern of Elliot wave a-b-c-d-e which also

coincides with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of last 8

year chart pattern.

Momentum indicators are in oversold zone and buying

volume is witnessed around current levels.

The stock is likely to rally for minimum immediate

retracement level on the up for target of 2500 in

medium term.

Company is involved in the business activities of

Manufacture of pharmaceuticals, medicinal chemical

and botanical products.

Q1FY17 revenue for the quarter grew by 3% to Rs.3316

crore Y-o-Y, EBITDA also registered 16% de growth to

Rs.336 crore. While R&D expenses were 507 crore

during the quarter, it raises by 50bps to 15.3% of

revenue on Y-o-Y basis.

Revenue from global generics ware up by 3% to Rs.

2746 crore, led by emerging market growth was 34% to

Rs. 575 crore; Europe growth was 28% to Rs. 208 crore;

NAG market de grew by 4% to Rs. 1495 crore; and

Indian market de grew by 10% to Rs. 469 crore.

Forward Outlook:

Company continues to work with the agency and remain

optimistic about eventual approvals. Our new launches

for coming fiscal looks healthy and we expect 10+

launches in the next 12- months. That will ensure the

future growth.

Company continues to focus on improving productivity

and augmenting the pipeline. And are on track to expand

the geographic presence through leverage the institution

business portfolio and biosimilars. Commercialization of

biosimilars across Emerging Markets have now started

gaining meaningful traction. Management remain

optimistic of building this momentum further.

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Company Data





Beta 1.1



Promoters 49.9%

Institutions 40.6%


Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 13903.5 12124.2 11066.6

EBITDA (Cr) 3613.9 3401.6 2131.9


EPS (RS) 49.8 41.1 13.1

Book Value (Cr) 10622.7 6267.7 6029.0

P/E 20.1 24.3 76.3

P/BV 1.1 1.1 1.6

RoNW(%) 6.5% 6.6% 3.8%

RoCE(%) 2.3% 1.6% 0.9%

CESC Ltd. Sector: Power – Generation/Distribution NSE CODE: CESC

BUY | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 1016 |Target: Rs 1200

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock has been moving up in higher top higher bottom

formation and after following the upward trendline, it

broke its 52 week high. Pattern wise formation it also

formed ascending triangle and it also broke out of it which

implies strong rally in days to come.

The stock has been above its supertrend and momentum

indicators clearly showing bullish signal

We expect the stock price to achieve conservative target of

the stock is 1200 in medium term

Company's business segments include Power generation

and distribution of electricity; organized retailing; property

development, and business process outsourcing.

During Q1FY18 it has registered 9% growth in its

standalone sales to Rs 2184 crore. Gained further by 240

bps expansion in operating profit margin to 27.8%, the

operating profit was up by 19% to Rs 607 crore. The PAT

was up by 2% to Rs 178 crore, back by 94% jump in

regulatory expenses to Rs 194.00 crore.

Outlook & Developments:

The demerger of CESC would be a big value unlocking for,

especially for power and generation businesses, and strong

cash generation business, the distribution business

generates nearly 20 per cent return on equity and would be

the only listed Power Company with such high ROEs. After

de merger group's power business will divide into two –

generation & distribution; while Spencer's Retail will

become the third company. The rest of the business

verticals, includes First source Solutions; New Rising

Promoters; Quest Properties India, Guiltfree, and others

will form the fourth entity.

To diversify its’ power business and to grab the current

opportunity CESC Plans to increase footprints in the wind

business, driven by positive long term outlook for

renewable energy.

Currently the stock traded at 19.25x of current EPS, and

1.3x of its FY18 book value. We expect the current

valuation will re rate and unlocking extra value for

shareholders.

We expect the current valuation will re rate and unlocking extra value for shareholders.

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Company Data





Beta 0.85



Promoters 49.3%

Institutions 25.8%


Key Financials

FY17 FY16 FY15

Net Sales (Cr) 21766.7 22586.5 21614.3

EBITDA (Cr) 5896.2 5987.1 4356.9


EPS (RS) 141.0 130.8 104.6

Book Value (Cr) 17856.6 13045.4 11095.3

P/E 19.5 21.1 26.2

P/BV 4.6 5.3 5.3

RoNW(%) 22.8% 29.0% 27.3%

RoCE(%) 22.1% 28.1% 26.3%

Bajaj Auto Ltd. Sector: Automobile NSE CODE: BAJAJ-AUTO

ACCUMULATE | PERIOD: 12 Months | CMP: Rs 2815 |Target: Rs 3100

During Q1FY18 net profit on a consolidated basis fell 20%

to Rs 836.75 Y-o-Y, revenue fell 5% to Rs 5442 crore

compared with Rs 5,748 crore in same quarter last year

following decline in sales volumes. Weak operational

performance was witnessed by the company during the

quarter. Bottom line was partly supported by surge in other

income.

Sales in terms of volume ware 8.88 lakh units during the

quarter, down by 10.7% compared with 9.94 lakh units

sold in year ago quarter. The down term largely due to of

GST & transition to BS-IV from BS-III that impacted the

domestic industry in general.

Outlook:

Bajaj Auto continues to dominate the petrol and alternate

fuel market with a domestic market share of 88%. In the

small diesel category, its market share now stands at 71%.

In the larger diesel segment, the market share is up from

20% to 23%. Thus, in the overall diesel category, BAL’s

market share now stands at 34%.

Also partnership with Triumph will provide both

organizations the opportunity to reach new market

segments within the global motorcycle market. It also

helps to compete with Royal Enfield in domestic market

and global market; through Bajaj Auto’s manufacturing

and engineering capabilities and Triumph’s positioning as

premium luxury brand with global reach.

TECHNICAL VIEW:

The stock made multiple bottoms around price level of

2700 and this level also happens to be classical previous

resistance now acting as support level. Henceforth the

stock has consolidated and made strong base

Price level is also closer to its 100wma (weekly moving

average) which historically has been strong support for the

stock.

We expect the price to consolidate and move to ascending

triangle (formed in long term chart) breakout level of

150% Fibonacci retracement level which above 3100 in

medium term.

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RATING PARAMETER

BUY We expect the stock to deliver more than 15% returns over the next 12 months

ACCUMULATE We expect the stock to deliver 6% - 15% returns over the next 12 months

REDUCE We expect the stock to deliver 0% - 5% returns over the next 12 months

SELL We expect the stock to deliver negative returns over the next 12 months NOTE Target prices are for a period of 12-month perspective. Returns stated in the rating parameter are for our internal

benchmark.

TECHNICAL CALL RATING PARAMETER

BUY A condition that indicates a good time to buy a stock. The exact circumstances of the signal will be determined by the

indicator that an analyst is using.

SELL A condition that indicates a good time to sell a stock. The exact circumstances of the signal will be determined by the

indicator that an analyst is using.

STOP LOSS An instruction to the broker to buy or sell stock when it trades beyond a specified price. They serve to either protect

your profits or limit your losses.

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PEERLESS MASTER PICKS -MONTHLY · hdfc bank 1779 28-jul-17 1950 accumulate 1776.00 open britannia...

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