Pedro.ribeiro
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Transcript of Pedro.ribeiro
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Predictable Project SurprisesBridging Risk Perception Gaps
Pedro C. Ribeiro, MBA, PMPPresident, Stratech/TheProjectOffice
Presented by
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Pedro C Ribeiro, MBA, PMP
Pedro C Ribeiro is President of Stratech/TheProjectOffice which specializes in project management and risk management consulting and training. A former Director of Ernst & Young Consulting, Unisys and EDS he has over 25 years of executive and consulting experience with global organizations. He holds an M.B.A. from The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, having participated in the Project Management Program of the Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology (M.I.T.) and in the Managing Business Transformation Program of the Harvard Business School. He is a certified Project Management Professional PMP, a Director for Central & South America PMI Risk Management SIG, a member of ISO 31000 International Risk Management Working Group, and a Board Director of PMI Educational Foundation. He has conducted presentations, executive workshops and seminars in Latin America, United States and Europe and has contributed to publications including PMI Today, Chief Project Officer and PM World Today. Pedro Ribeiro lives in Sao Paulo, Brazil.
He can be reached at [email protected]
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
• In many projects that fail there are early warning signs that the project will run into trouble.
• However,many times, these signs are ignored and organizations end up not recognizing the early signs of failure until it is too late.
• This presentation will explore the challenges of Predictable Project Surprises, Risk Perception Gaps, research, tools and ideas on how to identify early warning signs of project trouble.
Presentation Summary
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Agenda
• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News
• Predictable Project Surprises, Project Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps
• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe
• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)
• Results of PCM Workshops
• Conclusions
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Projects Fail For Many Reasons...
– Expectations were not realistic, not managed, or poorly communicated.
– Requirements were unclear, contradictory, ambiguous, or there was a lack of agreement and priority
– Lack of resources, resource conflicts, or poor resource planning.
– Risks were poorly identified or not managed.
– .....Source:Center for Business Practices Troubled Projects Research: Project Failure or Project Recovery 2006
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
...however,independently of why a project failed...
A Key Question:Was it a complete
surprise for all project team members ?...
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Good News!...
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
...rarely a surprise.
• Some people in the organization knew it.
• The grapevine knew it...may be well in advance.
• Some project team members knew it and tried to warn the organization.
Source:The Wisdom of Grapevinesby Pedro C Ribeiro, MBA, PMP
The Dead Fish of Failure…It sits on the table of far too many projects…Everybody smells it right away.- Tim Lister
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
The Silence Fails Study
• 90% of employees know far in advance when projects are doomed.
• 82% of employees say that there are significant organization-wide initiatives underway in their workplace that will likely to fail.
• 78% of employees say that they are personnalyworking on a “doomed”project right now.
Source: The Silence Fails Study Vital Smarts and The Concours Group - 2006
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
• “71 % of surveyed employees say that they try to speak up about their concerns to key decision makers but do not feel they are heard
• 19% don’t event attempted to speak”• 85% of all project failures can be
attributed to “organizational silence”.
The bad news is that some of these potential early warnings go sometimes unnoticed...
Source: The Silence Fails Study Vital Smarts and The Concours Group - 2006
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
....at all levels...
“There is a large disconnect between senior management and project sponsors on one hand ,and project managers and their teammates on the other.They are not communicating”.
Source:PCI Global Survey 2004Does your organization support, ignore or obstruct project management?
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
...leading to Predictable Surprises
“Predictable surprises are events that catch leaders off guard even though they had all the information necessary to anticipate them”.“Predictable surprises occur regularly in organizations public and private” Source:
M.Bazerman and M.WatkinsPredictable SurprisesHBS Press 2004
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Agenda
• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News
• Predictable Project Surprises, Project Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps
• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe
• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)
• Results of PCM Workshops
• Conclusions
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Predictable Project Surprise – PPS
A sudden project status change, or "discontinuity”in project expected or actual results, that take an organization by surprise, when project team members, already expected it, and tried to warn the organization.
Source:Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion GapsHow to avoid Predictable Project Surprisesby Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Predictable Project Surprises behave similarly to Catastrophes
• Catastrophe Theory - Branch of topology developed by René Thom to qualitatively describe events characterized by major abrupt changes. Catastrophes are discontinuous transitions that occurs when a system suddenly jumps, or is perceived to jump, from one state to another, such as the collapse of a bridge, a stock market crash or change in perceptions.
• Project Catastrophe: A discontinuous transition that occurs when a project status suddenly jumps, or is perceived to jump, from one status to another. The project suddenly collapses leaving us wondering what went wrong.
Source:Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion GapsHow to avoid Predictable Project Surprisesby Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Project Catastrophes may unfold due to unadressed differences in Risk Perceptions
• Perceived Project Risk Level– An individual’s subjective assessment of a
project’s risk level (likelihood and consequence), before risk responses.
• Perceived Risk Response Capability– An individual’s subjective assessment of
an organization’s competence ( technology, processes and people) to effectively formulate, plan and execute risk responses to perceived project risks.
• Expected Project Results– An individual’s expectations with regard to
the feasibility of achieving project objectives as a result of Perceived Risk Levels and Risk Response Capability.
Source:Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion GapsHow to avoid Predictable Project Surprisesby Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Risk Perceptions depend on many factors
HIG
H
Perc
eive
d R
isk
Lev
el
HIGHLO
WLOW
Perceived Risk Response Capability
Mission Impossible...
..A Walk in the Park
Source:Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion GapsHow to avoid Predictable Project Surprisesby Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP
Risk Perception Map (RPM)
..OR
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Agenda
• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News
• Predictable Project Surprises, Project Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps
• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe
• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)
• Results of PCM Workshops
• Conclusions
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
How Project Catastrophes unfoldThe International Telecom Project…
• A global services corporation entering a major global bid in South America.
• The company did not match all bid requirements, but..
• The international bid team did an excellent job in preparing a proposal, and winning the bid …
…the project that would save the Quarter and the Fiscal Year…
A Pattern of Project Catastrophe
ITP
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Management Expectations
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Client Expectations
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Project Team Expectations
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Project Results
- I knew it from day one- Remember, I warned you...- Nobody listened...
- How could this happen?- You did not say that...- If I knew that I would...
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Agenda
• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News
• Predictable Project Surprises, Project Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps
• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe
• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)
• Results of PCM Workshops
• Conclusions
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)A visual brainstorming tool designed to help identifying and discussing project Risk Perception Gaps and Catastrophes.
HIG
H
Perc
eive
d R
isk
Lev
el
HIGH
LOW
LOW
Perceived Risk Response Capability
Risk Perception Map (RPM)
Project Catastrophe Map (PCM)
Source:Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion GapsHow to avoid Predictable Project Surprisesby Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Mapping Risk Perceptions
HIG
H
Perc
eive
d R
isk
Lev
el
HIGH
LOW
LOW
Perceived Risk Response Capability
Piece of
Cake
MissionImpossible
T
M
C
ITP Early Warnings during Concept/Planning
Difference in Perceived Residual Risks
Residual Risk: A risk that remains after risk responses have been implemented PMBOK 3rd Edition Risk Perception Map (RPM)
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
A Risk Management Divide
Risk Analysis
PlannedRisk Responses
Risk Identification
Risk Analysis
UnnoficialOfficialRisk Identification
Official Unnoficial
Official UnnofficialAssessment of
Cababilities
PERCEIVED RISK LEVEL
PERCEIVED RISK RESPONSE CAPABILITIES
Official Processes and Tools
Source:The Wisdom of Grapevinesby Pedro C Ribeiro, MBA, PMP
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Barriers to detectingRisk Perception Gaps
• Risk is a Four Letter Word• Organization Culture.• Pressure for Results• Attitutes towards Risk• Methodology=Filling forms• Technical Jargon• Best Software, Hardware
...and little Peopleware• Unclear Risk Decision Rights
HELP!
Source:Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion GapsHow to avoid Predictable Project Surprisesby Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
HIG
H
Perc
eive
d R
isk
Lev
el
HIGH
LOW
LOW
Perceived Risk Response Capability
Piece of
Cake
Big Challenge
MissionImpossible
T
M
C
Mapping Risk PerceptionsITP Early Warnings during Execution
Risk Perception Map (RPM)
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
HIG
H
Perc
eive
d R
isk
Lev
el
HIGH
LOW
LOW
Perceived Risk Response Capability
Piece of
Cake
Big Challenge
MissionImpossible
T
C M
Mapping Risk PerceptionsITP End game
Risk Perception Map (RPM)
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Mapping Project CatastrophesUnderstanding Scenarios and Consequences
A
B
C
Perceived Risk Response Capability
Perc
eived
Risk
Lev
el
Expected ProjectResults
A
B
C
Perceived Risk Response Capability
Perc
eived
Risk
Lev
el
Expected ProjectResults
Source:Project Catastrophes and Risk Percetion GapsHow to avoid Predictable Project Surprisesby Pedro C Ribeiro , MBA, PMP
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Agenda
• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News
• Predictable Project Surprises, Projec Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps
• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe
• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)
• Results of PCM Workshops
• Conclusions
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
H
IGH
Perc
eive
d R
isk
Lev
el
HIGH
LOW
LOW
Perceived Risk Response Capability
Workshop Results ORG1 NPB: HEM
45 % 60 %
10 %
Risk Perception Map (RPM)
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
H
IGH
Perc
eive
d R
isk
Lev
el
HIGH
LOW
LOW
Perceived Risk Response Capability
Workshop ResultsORG2 PB: ECF
68% 16 %
70 %
Risk Perception Map (RPM)
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Agenda
• Project Failure: The Good and the Bad News
• Predictable Project Surprises, Project Catastrophes and Risk Perception Gaps
• A real case: The Unfold of a Project Catastrophe
• Applying Project Catastrophe Mapping (PCM)
• Results of PCM Workshops
• Conclusions
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
PMNetwork July 2007
Risk Management and Communications
Opportunity
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Learn to Recognize Risk Perception Gaps– Early warnings always precede project surprises and project
surprises are often the result of ignoring available signs of risk.Listen to your Project Team– Project Catastrophes starts forming when the real project risk
identification and analysis start happening only in the cafeteria, after hours or during informal conversations and not during your official risk reviews.
Prepare your organization to detect looming Project Catastrophes– Unaddressed Risk Perception Gaps breed Project Catastrophes
and are detrimental to project teamwork and commitment.PCM can complement Risk Identification and Lessons Learned
- Recognizing early formation Project Catastrophes is an opportunity for project management continuous improvement....
Summary
turning vision into reality through projects®STRATECH / TheProjectOffice
www.theprojectoffice.net© Pedro C Ribeiro 2007
Pedro C. Ribeiro, MBA, PMPStratech/TheProjectOffice
www.TheProjectOffice.nete-mail: [email protected]
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