Pearland Demographic Independent Update School Fall 2017 ......District New Home Activity Pearland...
Transcript of Pearland Demographic Independent Update School Fall 2017 ......District New Home Activity Pearland...
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Pearland
Independent
School
District
Demographic Update
Fall 2017
Economic Conditions – Houston Area (September 2017)
2
Unemployment
Rate
-1.0%
34,589 new jobs
National rate 1.6%
Job Growth
1.1%
1,904 more
starts than 3Q16
Annual
Home Starts
27,713
Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy
U.S. 4.1%
Texas 4.0%
Houston MSA 4.8%
Pearland 3.5%
• Between 30,000 and 40,000 homes are estimated to have been destroyed in the Houston area, roughly 3.8% - 5.1% of Houston area homes
• Approximately 100,000 total homes are estimated to have been affected in the Houston area
• Approximately 105,000 apartment units have sustained damage as a result of flooding
• Most affected areas include: Port Arthur, Galveston/Houston, Port Aransas, Dickinson, and League City
• Local retail sales are expected to increase in Harris, Montgomery, and Fort Bend Counties
• Recovery total investment is estimated to be $150-$180 Billion
• Major spikes in rental and condo properties are expected as buyers seek to secure short term housing options
• Renovation activity is expected to increase as homeowners begin to rebuild damaged homes
Local Economy- Harvey Impact
3
Local Economic Conditions
4
Lonza Expansion project
• Swiss pharmaceutical and biotech company, Lonza
plans to add approx. 150,000 sq. ft. to expand
production of commercial quantities of viral gene and
cell therapies
• Estimated opening in late 2017
• Additional several hundred jobs for scientists,
engineers, and biotech professionals added over the
next ten years
• Part of collaborative effort between Pearland
Economic Development Corporation, city of
Pearland, and the Greater Houston Partnership
• Part of Houston ISD
Lower Kirby District Development
Tool-Flo Groundbreaking
• Construction started May 2017 for Tool-Flo’s new
headquarters in Pearland
• The 75,000 sq ft facility is located in Houston ISD off
Kirby Drive
• Manufacturer of tools and products for the oil/gas,
automotive, aerospace, and medical industries
• Will include offices, manufacturing zones, and training
facilities
• Creating 150 jobs in the management, engineering,
sales, operations, and administrative personnel fields
Source: Pearland Economic Development Corporation
Local Economic Conditions
5
Expressway construction• Stretching from CR 58 to Hwy 59, Brazoria County Expressway
and Hwy 288 toll roads are being built in tandem
• Four-lane toll road roughly 15 mi. long
• Began in July 2017; slated for completion in July 2019
• $97.2 million construction project
• $80 million used for toll lanes
• $15 million funded by TxDOT to widen FM 518 from
Business Center Dr. to Smith Ranch Rd
• $2 million funded by Pearland for aesthetic improvements
and landscaping
Brazoria County Expressway
Source: Community Impact Newspaper
Local Economic Conditions
6
McHard Road Extension• The City of Pearland is extending McHard Road for 3.5 miles
• The four lane road with signalized intersections will include sideways, pond
design, landscape plans and drainage
• The City of Pearland will receive reimbursement for up to 80% of the cost of the
design and construction
• The extension is intended to reduce traffic on FM 518 for an alternative east/west
connector between SH 288 and SH 35
• The construction is expected to start by mid 2019 and be completed by mid 2021
Source: City of Pearland September 2017 Memo
Texas Enrollment Trends 2016/17 State Enrollment
Total Enrollment 5,359,127
Total Growth 59,540
7
73,685
78,644
78,078
98,273
85,773
64,962
77,261
76,085
80,140
67,522
59,540
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13 2014/15 2016/17
Enrollment Change
4,592,8494,671,493
4,749,5714,847,844
4,933,6174,998,579
5,075,8405,151,925
5,232,0655,299,587
5,359,127
4,000,000
4,200,000
4,400,000
4,600,000
4,800,000
5,000,000
5,200,000
5,400,000
5,600,000
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
Total State Enrollment
Source: Texas Education Agency
Region 4 & 6 Enrollment Trends
8Source: Texas Education Agency
• Pearland ISD has added 2,380
students in the last 5 years
• This is a 5 year growth rate of 12.4%
Houston New Home Ranking Report
9
ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 2Q17
Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future
1 Fort Bend ISD 3,118 3,057 3,079 14,603
2 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 2,879 2,879 3,089 15,809
3 Katy ISD 2,289 2,398 3,180 16,314
4 Lamar CISD 2,518 2,359 4,255 17,285
5 Houston ISD 2,051 1,994 3,251 7,346
6 Conroe ISD 1,935 1,964 4,538 24,733
7 Klein ISD 961 1,242 1,734 2,228
8 Alvin ISD 1,251 1,121 1,682 16,477
9 Humble ISD 1,204 1,088 2,144 8,219
10 Clear Creek ISD 990 965 1,549 3,726
11 Tomball ISD 1,031 881 2,380 2,534
12 Spring ISD 716 675 545 6,777
13 Aldine ISD 514 517 998 1,285
14 Spring Branch ISD 542 473 1,456 903
15 Sheldon ISD 449 465 548 3,521
16 New Caney ISD 418 433 864 3,819
17 Pearland ISD* 362 378 243 454
18 Magnolia ISD 335 371 1,128 4,055
19 Goose Creek CISD 286 331 565 1,492
20 Montgomery ISD 284 326 1,066 4,543*Based on additional research by Templeton Demographics
District New Home ActivityPearland ISD
10
• Through 2Q17, Pearland ISD has started 168 new homes, this is a rise of
18 units over the same period in 2016
• The district is on pace to close more than 350 new homes in 2017
• New home inventory is low at 4.6 month’s supply due to closings
outpacing starts in the first half of 2017
Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1Q 23 43 42 113 81 94 1Q 34 34 53 69 112 107
2Q 61 39 48 86 69 74 2Q 38 45 47 97 98 81
3Q 47 51 89 106 104 3Q 45 39 38 87 74
4Q 30 46 70 107 90 4Q 47 29 53 99 116
Total 161 179 249 412 344 168 Total 164 147 191 352 400 188
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Starts Closings
Annual Closings Distribution 2Q17
11
Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q17 (Ranked by Annual Closings)
Rank SubdivisionElementary
Zone Annual
Closings VDL Future
1 Canterbury Park MAGNOLIA 71 7 130
2 Province Village SHADYCREST 59 5 0
3 Avalon Terrace LAWHON 40 73 0
4 Oakshire RUSTIC OAK 40 0 0
5 Pearland Lakes CHALLENGER 32 0 0
6 Highland Crossing COCKRELL 31 0 0
7 Highland Park COCKRELL 28 7 0
8 Oakbrook Estates RUSTIC OAK 16 1 0
9 Cullen Park Estates MASSEY RANCH 14 0 0
10 Orchard Glen MAGNOLIA 13 4 0
TOTALS 344 97 130
Vacant Developed Lots 2Q17
12
Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q17 (Ranked by remaining VDL)
Rank Subdivision Elementary Zone Annual Closings VDL Future
1 Avalon Terrace LAWHON 40 73 0
2 Bakers Landing SF HARRIS 11 62 78
3 Massey Lake Estates MASSEY RANCH 11 53 0
4 Afton Lake CARLESTON 0 19 0
5 Canterbury Park MAGNOLIA 71 7 130
6 Highland Park COCKRELL 28 7 0
7 Jamison Landing RUSTIC OAK 0 6 0
8 Province Village SHADYCREST 59 5 0
9 Orchard Glen MAGNOLIA 13 4 0
10 Tuscany Estates SHADYCREST 0 4 0
TOTALS 233 240 256
Future Lots 2Q17
13
Top 5 Subdivisions - 2Q17 (Ranked by Future Inventory)
Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings VDL Future
1 CANTERBURY PARK 71 7 130
2 STONEBRIDGE II 0 0 91
3 BAKERS LANDING SF 11 62 78
4 MIDTOWN/MAGNOLIA 0 0 60
5 BAKERS LANDING THS 0 0 48
TOTALS 82 69 407
New Home Activity by Elementary Zone
14
Highest Activity in Category
Second Highest Activity in Category
Third Highest Activity in Category
ELEMENTARYZONE
Annual Starts
Quarter Starts
Annual Closings
Quarter Closings
Under Const.
Inventory VDL Future
CARLESTON 11 5 0 0 9 11 19 24
CHALLENGER 17 0 32 2 0 0 0 0
COCKRELL 42 9 59 6 14 17 7 91
HARRIS 51 16 11 9 27 40 62 126
LAWHON 51 20 40 10 20 24 73 0
MAGNOLIA 72 2 84 21 11 12 11 130
MASSEY RANCH 39 7 25 11 15 21 53 60
RUSTIC OAK 23 1 56 5 6 1 7 0
SHADYCREST 56 14 59 17 16 20 11 23
SILVERCREST 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
SILVERLAKE 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0
TOTALS 362 74 378 81 118 146 243 454
Residential Activity Overview
• Pearland ISD has nearly 250 lots
available to build on
• The district has appx. 450 future
lots plannedFuture SubdivisionActive Subdivision
15
Residential ActivityBakers Landing and Canterbury Park
16
Bakers Landing
• 239 total lots
• 191 total single family lots
• 48 future townhome lots
• 126 total futures
• 11 occupied
• 27 homes U/C
• 62 VDL
• Groundwork underway on 58 future
lots, delivering October 2017
• Building 100 homes in 2018
• DR Horton Homes
• $250K - $400K
• Current student yield: 0.61
• Harris Elementary
Canterbury Park
• 461 total lots
• 130 futures
• 313 occupied
• 3 homes U/C
• 7 VDL
• Groundwork underway on
remaining 130 lots
• Phase 5 with 58 lots
delivering spring 2018
• KB Homes
• $210K - $260K
• Current student yield: 0.82
• Magnolia Elementary
Residential ActivityAvalon Terrace
17
Avalon Terrace
• 529 total lots
• 432 occupied
• 20 U/C
• 73 VDL
• $260K - $345K
• Building 50 - 60 homes per year
• Current student yield: 0.60
• Lawhon Elementary
Residential ActivityMassey Lake Estates
18
Massey Lake Estates
• 82 total lots
• 11 occupied
• 14 U/C
• 53 VDL
• Meritage Homes
• Building 30 - 40 homes a year
• $315K - $440K
• Current student yield: 1.19
• Massey Ranch Elementary
Residential ActivityLake Park Townhomes
19
Lake Park Townhomes
• 247 total lots
• 40 – 45 units under construction
• Brownstone Builders
• Built out by end of 2018
• Lawhon Elementary
Future SubdivisionMassey Oaks
20
Massey Oaks
• 975 total future lots
• 357-acre development
• Property was rezoned and annexed into
the City of Pearland in July 2017
• Developer seeking to have entire
development moved into AISD boundary
• No future lots within Pearland ISD
• Massey Ranch Elementary
Alvin ISD
Future Infill Development Vacant parcels larger than 5 acres
21
• Pearland ISD will start experiencing infill developments
• Within the district, there is still roughly 3,000 acres of vacant land
• This could yield roughly 4,000 to 6,000 additional future homes in
smaller, higher density developments
2017/18 Apartment Yield Analysis
22
• Pearland ISD has 1,594 students
currently residing in more than
4,000 multi-family apartments
• The district average apartment
yield is 0.38
2017/18 Mobile Home Yield Analysis
23
• Pearland ISD has 886 students
currently residing in 950
manufactured homes
• The district average manufactured
home community yield is 0.95
2016-17 2017-18One Year Change
Newcomers 2,035 1,913 -122
Leavers 1,648 1,734 +86
NET CHANGE +387 +179 -208
Student Migration
* Student geocode data is taken from an enrollment snapshot, totals may vary from official enrollment reports.
Newcomers: Number of student IDs that were in the 2017-18 student geocode, and did not exist in
2016-17 student file (excludes incoming KG).
Leavers: Number of student IDs that were in the 2016-17 student geocode, and did not exist in
2017-18 student file (excludes graduating seniors).
24
0
50
100
150
200
250
GRD1 GRD2 GRD3 GRD4 GRD5 GRD6 GRD7 GRD8 GRD9 GRD10 GRD11 GRD12
2017/18 Newcomers by Grade
Student Migration
25
2016/17 Leavers: Student IDs that were in the 2015/16 geocode, but did not exist in the 2016/17 geocode
2017/18 Leavers: Student IDs that were in the 2016/17 geocode, but did not exist in the 2017/18 geocode
• Pearland ISD had 1,734 students leave the district this year that enrolled last year
• Last year, Pearland ISD lost 1,648 students
• Pearland ISD had 86 more students leave the district than last year, a rise of 5%
GRADE16/17
Leavers17/18
LeaversChange
EE 8 8 0
PK 42 53 11
KG 142 132 -10
GRD1 131 163 5
GRD2 128 139 11
GRD3 140 163 23
GRD4 148 148 0
GRD5 117 129 12
GRD6 127 139 12
GRD7 107 118 11
GRD8 124 136 12
GRD9 141 127 -14
GRD10 154 140 -14
GRD11 139 139 0
TOTAL 1,648 1,734 86
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
EE PK KG GRD1 GRD2 GRD3 GRD4 GRD5 GRD6 GRD7 GRD8 GRD9 GRD10 GRD11
Year- Over-Year Leavers Comparison, excluding 12th grade
16/17 Leavers 17/18 Leavers
Ten Year ForecastBy Grade Level
*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year
26
• Pearland ISD will reach more than 22,000 students by the fall of 2020
• 5 year growth = 683 students
• 2022/23 enrollment = 22,324
• 10 year growth = 1,190 students
• 2027/28 enrollment = 22,831
Year (Oct.) EE Pre-K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal
Growth%
Growth
2013/14 89 316 1,401 1,431 1,509 1,522 1,537 1,608 1,618 1,612 1,576 1,624 1,482 1,380 1,329 20,034
2014/15 86 328 1,411 1,505 1,498 1,542 1,541 1,583 1,616 1,657 1,629 1,714 1,612 1,465 1,363 20,550 516 2.6%
2015/16 73 291 1,435 1,494 1,567 1,517 1,588 1,592 1,663 1,648 1,722 1,745 1,736 1,582 1,440 21,093 543 2.6%
2016/17 90 370 1,383 1,548 1,589 1,636 1,559 1,625 1,665 1,697 1,700 1,823 1,702 1,651 1,547 21,585 492 2.3%
2017/18 87 317 1,369 1,495 1,570 1,609 1,674 1,596 1,667 1,673 1,724 1,783 1,795 1,659 1,623 21,641 56 0.3%
2018/19 87 317 1,416 1,467 1,534 1,611 1,658 1,699 1,634 1,684 1,715 1,813 1,784 1,750 1,642 21,811 170 0.8%
2019/20 87 317 1,398 1,525 1,490 1,559 1,654 1,701 1,749 1,640 1,728 1,826 1,805 1,736 1,721 21,936 125 0.6%
2020/21 87 317 1,476 1,496 1,553 1,510 1,583 1,679 1,743 1,757 1,671 1,872 1,819 1,757 1,709 22,029 93 0.4%
2021/22 87 317 1,484 1,583 1,519 1,572 1,537 1,626 1,730 1,742 1,776 1,819 1,867 1,772 1,732 22,162 134 0.6%
2022/23 87 317 1,492 1,584 1,611 1,548 1,611 1,590 1,679 1,737 1,775 1,921 1,812 1,817 1,744 22,324 161 0.7%
2023/24 87 317 1,490 1,591 1,615 1,634 1,578 1,667 1,643 1,694 1,777 1,910 1,913 1,763 1,793 22,473 149 0.7%
2024/25 87 317 1,503 1,591 1,615 1,636 1,659 1,640 1,725 1,662 1,724 1,922 1,903 1,862 1,737 22,583 111 0.5%
2025/26 87 317 1,509 1,602 1,613 1,638 1,665 1,709 1,690 1,734 1,694 1,868 1,914 1,852 1,836 22,728 145 0.6%
2026/27 87 317 1,513 1,602 1,624 1,636 1,663 1,716 1,762 1,696 1,769 1,833 1,861 1,864 1,826 22,770 42 0.2%
2027/28 87 317 1,520 1,609 1,626 1,645 1,659 1,719 1,769 1,769 1,728 1,904 1,828 1,812 1,839 22,831 61 0.3%
Ten Year ForecastBy Elementary Campus
27
*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity
HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
CAMPUS Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28
B Cockrell Elementary 858 806 767 778 797 823 835 841 842 851 853 852 855
CJ Harris Elementary 770 685 638 655 654 664 687 709 716 725 732 734 741
Challenger Elementary 770 688 684 672 655 635 641 661 663 665 660 662 668
EA Lawhon Elementary 950 809 819 834 839 856 888 887 887 898 906 909 911
HC Carleston Elementary 950 772 814 813 826 831 848 847 843 846 844 838 839
Magnolia Elementary 858 878 869 860 844 817 807 837 843 848 847 840 833
Massey Ranch Elementary 858 705 682 686 684 693 699 709 719 728 730 740 751
Rustic Oak Elementary 770 678 707 731 714 737 745 753 757 768 771 776 778
Shadycrest Elementary 748 698 684 649 620 609 600 633 661 678 682 683 679
Silvercrest Elementary 814 747 727 688 669 647 638 655 660 670 673 677 676
Silverlake Elementary 770 709 730 724 728 710 711 718 721 731 733 731 732
ELEMENTARY TOTALS 9,116 8,175 8,121 8,090 8,030 8,022 8,099 8,250 8,312 8,408 8,431 8,442 8,463
Elementary Absolute Growth 210 -54 -31 -60 -8 77 151 62 96 23 11 21
Elementary Percent Growth 2.64% -0.66% -0.38% -0.74% -0.10% 0.96% 1.86% 0.75% 1.15% 0.27% 0.13% 0.25%
Ten Year Forecast By Secondary Campus
28
*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated campus capacity
HISTORY Current ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS
CAMPUS Capacity 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28
Alexander Middle 925 705 806 818 869 864 822 800 793 818 844 867 869
Leon H Sablatura Mid 900 896 831 786 795 767 762 820 872 853 850 873 881
Rogers Middle 925 853 814 841 854 855 848 767 749 764 774 796 801
Sam Jamison Mid 925 836 812 888 932 936 924 882 896 930 931 942 937
MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTALS 3,675 3,290 3,263 3,333 3,450 3,422 3,356 3,269 3,310 3,365 3,399 3,478 3,488
Middle School Absolute Growth 35 -27 70 117 -28 -66 -87 41 55 34 79 10
Middle School Percent Growth 1.08% -0.82% 2.15% 3.51% -0.81% -1.93% -2.59% 1.25% 1.66% 1.01% 2.32% 0.29%
Berry Miller JH 900 906 907 887 852 877 892 890 886 800 783 800 810
Pearland JH East 900 798 783 820 915 912 958 953 914 902 901 922 947
Pearland JH South 875 863 890 865 821 894 932 952 960 921 930 948 947
Pearland JH West 900 830 817 827 780 745 736 717 711 763 814 795 793
JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 3,575 3,397 3,397 3,399 3,368 3,428 3,518 3,512 3,471 3,386 3,428 3,465 3,497
Junior High Absolute Growth 28 0 2 -31 60 90 -6 -41 -85 42 37 32
Junior High Percent Growth 0.83% 0.00% 0.06% -0.91% 1.78% 2.63% -0.17% -1.17% -2.45% 1.24% 1.08% 0.92%
Glenda Dawson HS 2,000 2,466 2,519 2,545 2,554 2,535 2,549 2,616 2,633 2,677 2,702 2,615 2,605
Pearland HS 3,850 2,982 3,055 3,101 3,173 3,252 3,273 3,304 3,376 3,377 3,397 3,400 3,408
Pace Center 300 102 82 101 95 93 96 95 95 95 95 95 95
Turner College & Career HS 1,250 1,169 1,200 1,238 1,262 1,273 1,267 1,274 1,272 1,271 1,272 1,271 1,271
HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL 7,400 6,719 6,856 6,985 7,084 7,153 7,185 7,289 7,376 7,420 7,466 7,381 7,379
High School Absolute Growth 222 137 129 99 69 33 103 87 45 46 -85 -2
High School Percent Growth 3.42% 2.04% 1.89% 1.41% 0.97% 0.46% 1.44% 1.19% 0.60% 0.61% -1.14% -0.03%
Brazoria County JJ AEP 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
DISTRICT TOTALS 23,766 21,585 21,641 21,811 21,936 22,029 22,162 22,324 22,473 22,583 22,728 22,770 22,831
District Absolute Growth 492 56 170 125 93 134 161 149 111 145 42 61
District Percent Growth 2.33% 0.26% 0.79% 0.57% 0.42% 0.61% 0.73% 0.67% 0.49% 0.64% 0.18% 0.27%