Peak Water, Climate Change, and California Planning in an Uncertain World
42
Peak Water, Climate Change, and California Planning in an Uncertain World Dr. Peter Gleick Pacific Institute, Oakland, California
-
Upload
laura-rinaldi -
Category
Education
-
view
254 -
download
0
Transcript of Peak Water, Climate Change, and California Planning in an Uncertain World
Peak Water, Climate Change, and California
Planning in an Uncertain World
Dr. Peter Gleick
Pacific Institute, Oakland, California
Overview
• “Peak Water” - What does it mean?• California’s water: a quick glance• Climate changes are coming• New trends and thinking about solutions• New challenges: Planning in an uncertain
world• Moving forward
Global Population
Global CO2 Concentration
U.S. Oil Production
Atlantic Cod1950-2008
Market Penetration of
Telephones in US
Ecosystem carrying capacities
Cumulative Dam Capacity in US
Renewable or Non-Renewable?
• Non-renewable resources are “stock” limited.• Renewable resources are “flow” limited.
• Water uniquely exhibits characteristics of both: overall renewable but with some fixed, isolated non-renewable stocks.
Peak Renewable Water
Total Renewable Supply
But, how much can we actually use??How much should we actually use?
Total Colorado River Flow at the Delta
Gleick and Palaniappan 2010
Peak “Non-Renewable” Water
Such as fossil groundwater (Central Valley, Ogallala, Libya, North China Plains, central India…)
Peak “Ecological” WaterO
vera
ll Ec
onom
ic a
nd E
colo
gica
l Val
ue
Amount of Water Appropriated by Humans
So, What Does Peak Water Mean?
• We’ll never “run out” of water overall. It is (mostly) renewable.
• Where water is “non-renewable” we will run into stock constraints.
• We will run up against “flow” limits that are a combination of natural and economic constraints.
• We are increasingly hitting (or exceeding) peak “ecological” water limits.
• We have to change the way we plan for the future.
California’s Water
Challenges for California water
• Droughts, floods, and limited water availability (peak renewable)
• Overpumped aquifers (peak non-renewable)• Water quality• Collapsing Delta ecosystems and fisheries
(peak ecological water)• Growing demands• Long-term climate change
What does this all mean for planning?
California’s Population
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
140,000,000
160,000,000
1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
Population
CALIFORNIA
CA Dept. of FinanceProjections
High Series
Middle Series
Low Series
Source: California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unithttp://www.dof.ca.gov/Research/Research.asp
Source: CA State Water Project reports and US Bureau of Reclamation 2012 data
Water Diversions from the Delta
Delta Fisheries: Massive Declines
• Delta smelt• Longfin smelt• Chinook salmon• Steelhead trout• Threadfin shad• Green and white sturgeon• Sacramento splittail• Striped bass
How does California use its water?
Source: DWR 2005a
North
Coa
st
San F
rancis
co B
ay
Centra
l Coa
st
Sout
h Coa
st
Sacra
mento
Riv
er
San J
oaqu
in R
iver
Tulare
Lak
e
North
Lah
ontan
Sout
h Lah
ontan
Color
ado R
iver
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Traditional solutions are tapped out, or no longer appropriate (or are the
problem!)
Reservoir Capacity in California 1850 to Present
Approaching Peak Non-Renewable
Groundwater
Observed groundwater trends in the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins
Oct. 2003 to March 2009
(Image courtesy of NASA).
• And Climate Change is Here
We are as sure that humans are causing climate change as we are that smoking tobacco causes cancer.
Global Average Sea Level Changes
Natural Catastrophes in North America 1980 to 2011
What Does Climate Change Mean for Planning?
• Rising temperatures and extreme heat events.• Disappearing snowpack and a change in water
availability, timing, and quality.• Rising sea levels and dramatic changes in
coastal flooding risks.• More extreme events: droughts and floods.
New Thinking about Water Solutions
• Rethink “supply”– Conjunctive use, treated wastewater, innovative
transfers, desalination, rainwater harvesting
• Rethink “demand”– Reduce waste and increase efficiency, rethink
economic priorities and choices
• Rethink “management”– New institutions, improve existing institutions,
better water monitoring
Water Conservation and Efficiency
$
$
$
$
$$
What’s the first thing to do to a leaky bucket?
Distribution of Toilets in California
Haasz et al. 2002
Indoor Residential Water Use
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Year
Acr
e-fe
et p
er y
ear
No Conservation
“Full Conservation”
Current Use
California Urban Water Use Scenarios
Producing More Food and Fiber with Less Water
• Efficient Irrigation Technology – Changing irrigation technology
• Improved Irrigation Scheduling – Using local climate and soil information to
schedule irrigation; and
• Regulated Deficit Irrigation– applying RDI to appropriate lands and crops.
Irrigation Technology is Improving, More Potential Remains
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Field Crops Vegetables Orchards Vineyards All Crops
Per
cen
t o
f Ir
rig
ated
Acr
eag
e
Micro/Drip Sprinkler Flood
Final Thoughts About Planning
• Our assumptions that the past is a good guide to the future are no longer valid.
• There are good scientific and analytical tools for looking at future scenarios.
• There are strategies for reducing vulnerability to “peak water” limits and to climate changes.
• But new thinking, open minds, new approaches are needed for planners and policy makers.
Dr. Peter H. Gleick
Pacific Institute, Oakland, California
www.pacinst.org
www.worldwater.org
