PEAK Report Climate, Energy and Air qualitygoals...PEAK REPORT CLIMATE, ENERGY AND AIR QUALITY GOALS...
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PEAK REPORT CLIMATE, ENERGY AND AIR QUALITY GOALS Department of Environmental Health and the Mayor’s Office of Sustainability September 12, 2016
Transcript of PEAK Report Climate, Energy and Air qualitygoals...PEAK REPORT CLIMATE, ENERGY AND AIR QUALITY GOALS...
PEAK REPORTCLIMATE, ENERGY
AND AIR QUALITY GOALS
Department of Environmental Health
and the Mayor’s Office of Sustainability
September 12, 2016
Presenter
Presentation Notes
DEH has been active in air, climate and energy work dating back to 1990. But the 2020 goal setup has really allowed us to be more effective and efficient in how we collectively approach the three goals that we coordinate, as most strategies developed for one goal have co-benefits in the other goals With that in mind, our presentation today address all three goals under the umbrella of climate and our climate metrics, like carbon and GHG emissions with some time at the end to specifically address air and energy.
OUTLINE
• Climate change impacts
• Climate goals
• Comparison to peer cities
• Strategies to achieve the goals
• Buildings
• Transportation
• Energy goal
• Air Quality goal
Presenter
Presentation Notes
We will tee up this presentation by focusing on the climate impacts that Denver and most cities will face in the upcoming century.
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
GLOBAL TEMPERATURE AND CARBON DIOXIDE
Source: NOAA–Global annual average temperature measured over land and oceans.
Presenter
Presentation Notes
You have likely seen a graph such as this that shows the relationship between global atmoshpheric carbon and temperature. Throughout our planetary history, as carbon concentrations change, so has temperature. As carbon and other heat trapping gases increase, so does temperature. Howver, in the last 75 years, man made carbon emissions have rapidly increased atmohspheric concentrations to an unprecedented level. Past evidence as well as scientific models forecast an ever increasing global temperature as our carbon concentration continues to climb. The bad news is that carbon will stay in our atmosphere for decades, but the good news is that we can stop those emissions and keep the planet from continually warming throughout the rest of this century. Red bars indicate temperatures above and blue bars indicate temperatures below the 1901-2000 average temperature. The black line shows atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in parts per million.
0.3 2
7
18
34
2 3 2 20
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1970-1999 2020-2039 2040-2059 2060-2079 2080-2099
Days >= 100o
Actual Current Emission Level Reduce Emission Level
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The years of 1970 to 1999 are fairly representative of the 20th and 19th century when Denver was being settled and developed. Denver rarely saw days over 100 degrees. While there were a few here and there, there would also be year after year where the thermometer never approached 100. Given global emissions, that will change in a very dramatic way. Again to point out some good news, it doesn’t have to be that way. Leading Cities like Denver, the world over, are making commitments and developing strategies to greatly reduce emissions. What cities do matters, as globally, cities by far emit the majority of heat trapping carbon emissions.
50% of Denver homes do not
have air conditioning
Heat related mortality likely
to double by 2050, with low-
income and vulnerable most
at risk
Presenter
Presentation Notes
Address impacts to public safety, emergeny response, and healthcare.
3RD WORST URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECTAFTER LAS VEGAS AND PHOENIX
Source: Climate Central, methodology controlled for elevation and climate of surrounding areas
HOTTER TEMPERATURES MEAN MORE AIR POLLUTION
Source: Climate Central
PROJECTED HEALTH IMPACT IN 2025 OF SMOG/OZONE
Source: Gasping for Breath report by Clean Air Task Force with CSU researchers
CLIMATE GOALS
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
mill
ion
MT-
CO
2eDenver’s GHG Emissions with Projection, Goals and 2050 Glide-path
Actual Projected Path to 2050 Goal
2050 Goal
2020 Goal
WHAT WILL AN 80% REDUCTION BY 2050 LOOK LIKE?
Electricity 100% Renewable
Buildings use 80% less natural gas
Transportation uses 80% less gas and diesel
DENVER’S 80% BY 2050 PROCESS
Stakeholders from industry, real estate, universities, nonprofits, Utilities, State Federal and Local policy experts
Interim Targets
Vetted Strategies for fully reaching
an 80% reduction
Denver’s Long Term Climate Plan for an 80% reduction of GHGs by
2050.Mid 2017
COMPARISON TO OTHER CITIES
HOW DOES DENVER COMPARE ON CLIMATE & ENERGY?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
#27 KansasCity, MO
#19 SaltLake City,
UT
#15 Atlanta,GA
#10 Denver,CO
#9 Austin,TX
#8 Portland,OR
#7Minneapolis,
MN
#5 Seattle,WA
#4 SanFrancisco,
CA
#1 Boston,MA
AC
EEE
City
Ene
rgy
Effic
ienc
y Sc
ore
American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Scorecard Comparison of Cities
Transportation
Utilities
Buildings
Community
Local Government
San Francisco
Denver
Boston
Minneapolis
San Francisco
Portland, OR
DenverMinneapolis
Portland, OR
San Francisco
Austin
Seattle
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% GHG Reduction Goals
COLORADANS CARE
• 73% of Coloradans say global warming is very or somewhat important to them personally
• 67% support significant steps to combat climate change
• 81% of Democrats support significant steps to address climate change now even if it would mean paying somewhat more for energy
• Majority of Coloradans agree local government officials should do more about global warming
• 86% support taking steps to become more energy efficient.
Sources: Yale Project on Climate Change CommunicationConservation Colorado Poll, December 2014, by Benenson Strategy Group
SOURCES OF EMISSIONS &SECTOR SPECIFIC STRATEGIES
DENVER’S CORE EMISSIONS
Single Family Homes, 14%
Commercial and Multifamily Bldgs, 57%
Gasoline Vehicles,
23%
Diesel Vehicles, 6%
57%of total greenhouse gas emissions
ENERGIZE DENVER
The City convened a balanced, thoughtful
task force
Energy Performance?
Work
Live
Study
Eat
ENERGIZE DENVER TASK FORCE RECOMMENDATIONS
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Buildings Track and
Report Energy
Perf.Annually
Track and Report Energy
Perf.
Track and Report Energy
Perf.
Track and Report Energy
Perf.
Track and Report Energy
Perf.
Track and Report Energy
Perf.
20%Perform
or Improve
20% Perform
or Improve
PROJECTED EMISSIONS WITH ENERGIZE DENVER
10.8
11.3
11.8
12.3
12.8
mill
ion
MT-
CO
2e
Actual Projected
Projection with Energize Denver Parts 1&2 Projection with Energize Denver Part 1
2020 Goal: 11.8 MMTons
29%Core Carbon Emissions
#1 Air Pollution
TRANSPORTATION EMISSIONS
MODE SWITCHING FUEL SWITCHINGCarpool Electricity
Bike Natural Gas
Transit Biofuels
Walk Hydrogen
Reduction Strategies
BENEFITS OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES (EV)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Air Pollution
Carbon Dioxide
Energy
Electricity vs. Gasoline - 2020
Gas EV
1. Grants and Incentives
2. Charging AccessGrant: charging analysis
3. Building code update
4. Smart City Challenge
#5EV FRIENDLY CITY
6,924 6,999 7,415 9,484 10,771
18,50024,087
05,000
10,00015,00020,00025,00030,000
CUMULATIVE EV SALES
WHAT ARE WE DOING?
GETTING THERE
9942,717 3,747
5,843 7,50010,000
12,50015,000
17,500
9942,717 3,747
5,843 7,500
14,000
22,000
30,000
40,000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Colorado EV Market Adoption ProjectionsCurrent Projection 2020 Projection
Smart City Goal
Strategy 2020 GHG Reduction (mtCO2)
2x PEV growth Awareness, Infrastructure
56,000
PEV Taxis/TNCs Infrastructure, subsidy,marketing
5,600
Grid Decarbonization
Advocacy, legislation
113,000
TOTAL = 175,000 mtCO2
PROJECTED EMISSIONS WITH BOTH ENERGIZE DENVER AND SMART CITY
10.8
11.3
11.8
12.3
12.8
13.3
mill
ion
MT-
CO
2e
Actual Projected Projection with Energize Denver Parts 1&2 Smart City EVs
2020 Goal: 11.8 MMTons
AIR QUALITY
2020 AIR QUALITY GOAL:ATTAIN ALL NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS
(NAAQS)
Sulfur Dioxide (SO2)
Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2)
Carbon Monoxide (CO)
Lead (Pb)
Coarse Particulate Matter (PM10)
Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5)
Ozone (O3)
• Health based standard
• Used to be out of attainment for 5 out of 6
• We are not out of the woods
• Standards change over time
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
CAMP La Casa Chatfield NREL
Ozo
ne L
evel
(pp
b)Ozone Compliance (3-yr avg 4th max)
201420152016
75 (old)
70 (new)
WHAT ARE WE DOING?
Monitoring Modeling Regulatory
ENERGY GOAL
88,00089,00090,00091,00092,00093,00094,00095,00096,000
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Thou
sand
s MM
BTU
2020 Energy GoalMaintain 2012 Energy Consumption
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
100,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
mm
BTU
Energy Goal = 50% reduction in fossil fuels, hold consumption to 2012 Levels
Fossil Fuel Target (mmBTU) Fossil Energy Business as Usual Forecast (mmBTU)
THANK YOU!
