Peak Oil Implications Trauger FINAL
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Transcript of Peak Oil Implications Trauger FINAL
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Peak Oil: Implications forPeak Oil: Implications for
Sustainable Natural ResourcesSustainable Natural ResourcesManagementManagement
David L. TraugerDavid L. Trauger
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
J. Edward GatesJ. Edward GatesUniversity of Maryland Center for EnvironmentalUniversity of Maryland Center for Environmental
ScienceScience
USDA Forest Service Sustainable OperationsUSDA Forest Service Sustainable OperationsSummitSummit
November 18November 18--20, 200820, 2008
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IntroductionIntroduction
Contemporary natural resources managementContemporary natural resources managementis highly dependent on cheap, abundantis highly dependent on cheap, abundantenergyenergy
A critical evaluation of implications of Peak OilA critical evaluation of implications of Peak Oilis needed in order to anticipate and plan for ais needed in order to anticipate and plan for arange of futuresrange of futures
We will face great challenges as well asWe will face great challenges as well asopportunities in different biogeographicopportunities in different biogeographicregions as we adjust to new realities duringregions as we adjust to new realities duringthe coming decadesthe coming decades
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Global Peak OilGlobal Peak Oil
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Energy governs how we do our jobsEnergy governs how we do our jobs
Powering facilities, computers, generators,Powering facilities, computers, generators,or motor vehiclesor motor vehicles
Consuming food energy hiking to the nextConsuming food energy hiking to the nextobservation or sampling pointobservation or sampling point
Manufacturing some useful field orManufacturing some useful field orlaboratory device or toollaboratory device or tool
Much of what we describe here willMuch of what we describe here will
be influenced by future economicbe influenced by future economicconditions and whether we can avoidconditions and whether we can avoidcollapsecollapse
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Management ImplicationsManagement Implications
of Peak Oilof Peak Oil
Impacts on BudgetsImpacts on Budgets
Impacts on OperationsImpacts on Operations
Impacts on MaintenanceImpacts on Maintenance
Impacts on PersonnelImpacts on Personnel
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Impacts on BudgetsImpacts on Budgets
Expensive, increasingly scarce oilExpensive, increasingly scarce oil
will not only affect our ability to drivewill not only affect our ability to drive
our cars and trucks, butour cars and trucks, but
Costs of everything will go upCosts of everything will go up
dramaticallydramatically
Effects will ripple throughout our national economyEffects will ripple throughout our national economy
Significantly impact institutional and agencySignificantly impact institutional and agency
budgetsbudgets
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Major Budgetary ImplicationsMajor Budgetary Implications
Greater justification of expenditures and aGreater justification of expenditures and a
sharper focus on setting program prioritiessharper focus on setting program priorities
Mandated high efficiency in bothMandated high efficiency in bothoperations and equipmentoperations and equipment
Curtailment or elimination of obsolete orCurtailment or elimination of obsolete or
inefficient programs or operationsinefficient programs or operations
Sharing of resources and responsibilitiesSharing of resources and responsibilities
among personnel and different agenciesamong personnel and different agencies
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Impacts on OperationsImpacts on Operations
Operations may be focused withinOperations may be focused withinautonomous administrative regionsautonomous administrative regions
-- Movement of personnel around theMovement of personnel around the
country or state or province may be too costlycountry or state or province may be too costly
Greater reliance on electronicGreater reliance on electroniccommunications using renewablecommunications using renewable
energy sourcesenergy sources
-- Brownouts and blackouts may affect theBrownouts and blackouts may affect the
electrical grids dependabilityelectrical grids dependability
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Forests, Refuges, Parks, andForests, Refuges, Parks, and
other Public Landsother Public Lands
Lack of disposable income may meanLack of disposable income may meanfewer visitations by the publicfewer visitations by the public Declines in ecotourism leading to economicDeclines in ecotourism leading to economic
nonviabilitynonviability
Pressure to privatize or open public landsPressure to privatize or open public lands
for needed revenues to operatefor needed revenues to operate Directly for income to support operationsDirectly for income to support operations
Indirectly for metals, minerals, hydrocarbons,Indirectly for metals, minerals, hydrocarbons,geothermal, wood, biomass, etc.geothermal, wood, biomass, etc.
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Species ManagementSpecies Management
Recreational hunting, fishing, and camping likelyRecreational hunting, fishing, and camping likelywill declinewill decline
Increase in poaching and timber theft for subsistenceIncrease in poaching and timber theft for subsistence
Rare, threatened, and endangered speciesRare, threatened, and endangered species Increase in extirpation and extinctionIncrease in extirpation and extinction
Greater emphasis on law enforcementGreater emphasis on law enforcement
Exotic and invasive speciesExotic and invasive species Control may be too expensiveControl may be too expensive
Habitat and landscape restorationHabitat and landscape restoration Lets work with nature!Lets work with nature!
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Inventories, Monitoring, andInventories, Monitoring, and
ResearchResearch Research activitiesResearch activities
Greatly reduced capabilityGreatly reduced capability
Focus on rigorous and integrated adaptiveFocus on rigorous and integrated adaptiveresource managementresource management
Activities dependent on extensive use ofActivities dependent on extensive use of
manned, motorized craftmanned, motorized craft Severely compromised, e.g. Routine patrols,Severely compromised, e.g. Routine patrols,Fire fighting, Breeding Waterfowl Surveys,Fire fighting, Breeding Waterfowl Surveys,
Big Game SurveysBig Game Surveys
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Surveys using volunteersSurveys using volunteers
Breeding Bird Survey, etc., may becomeBreeding Bird Survey, etc., may become
difficult to maintaindifficult to maintain
Remotely accessed or automatedRemotely accessed or automated
monitoring systemsmonitoring systems
Expansion of their applicationExpansion of their application Role in law enforcementRole in law enforcement
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Increased costs will mean that thereIncreased costs will mean that there
will be even fewer incentives to travelwill be even fewer incentives to travel
long distances to meetings,long distances to meetings,particularly via jet planesparticularly via jet planes
InternationalInternational
NationalNational RegionalRegional
StateState
TravelTravel
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Impacts on MaintenanceImpacts on Maintenance
Reduction of many types ofReduction of many types of
maintenance and repairmaintenance and repair
Road maintenance and other access pointsRoad maintenance and other access points
NonNon--essential infrastructure, e.g., visitoressential infrastructure, e.g., visitor
servicesservices
Recovery from catastrophic eventsRecovery from catastrophic eventswill be problematicwill be problematic
Wind storms, wild fires, tornadoes, floods,Wind storms, wild fires, tornadoes, floods,
hurricanes, etc.hurricanes, etc.
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Maintaining levees, dikes, and otherMaintaining levees, dikes, and other
impoundments will be expensiveimpoundments will be expensive
-- Especially in coastal areas where seaEspecially in coastal areas where sea
level rise is predictedlevel rise is predicted
Retrofit, Repair, and Recycling willRetrofit, Repair, and Recycling will
be new watchwordsbe new watchwords
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Sustainable approaches will be anSustainable approaches will be an
overriding goaloverriding goal
Demand for personnel with particularDemand for personnel with particular
skillsskills
Law enforcement
Law enforcement
Adaptive resource managementAdaptive resource management
Remote sensing and GISRemote sensing and GIS
Information technology and electronicInformation technology and electronic
communicationcommunication Equipment maintenance and repairEquipment maintenance and repair
Care of livestock, i.e., pack animals and horses!Care of livestock, i.e., pack animals and horses!
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UniversitiesUniversities declining budgets, decliningdeclining budgets, decliningstudent enrollments, declining researchstudent enrollments, declining researchdollars, and downsizing facultydollars, and downsizing faculty
Fewer students going into forestry, wildlife, fisheries, andFewer students going into forestry, wildlife, fisheries, andother conservation fields due to costs and lack of jobsother conservation fields due to costs and lack of jobs
Emphasis on training fewer postEmphasis on training fewer post--graduatesgraduates
Major universities will undergo contraction in many disciplinesMajor universities will undergo contraction in many disciplines
Smaller colleges and universities nearer to home maySmaller colleges and universities nearer to home mayweather the storm betterweather the storm better
Approaches to education and training willApproaches to education and training willchange and evolvechange and evolve
Alternatives to attending universityAlternatives to attending university Distance learning and training technologies, e.g., CDs, DVDs,Distance learning and training technologies, e.g., CDs, DVDs,
web, interactive video networkweb, interactive video network
Scattered faculty offer a coherent program of specialized trainingScattered faculty offer a coherent program of specialized trainingto a wider audienceto a wider audience
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OpportunitiesOpportunities Will we be able to react quickly enough?Will we be able to react quickly enough?
Duplication and waste will be less toleratedDuplication and waste will be less tolerateddue to high costs and focus ondue to high costs and focus onsustainabilitysustainability
Decision making will be streamlined andDecision making will be streamlined andentrusted to those on the front linesentrusted to those on the front lines Innovative, logical, multiInnovative, logical, multi--taskes, risk takerstaskes, risk takers
Initiative and success rewardedInitiative and success rewarded
Employees will be challenged by a dynamicEmployees will be challenged by a dynamicwork environmentwork environment Novel situations and conditionsNovel situations and conditions
Need for adaptability and innovation
Need for adaptability and innovation
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Can We be Proactive?Can We be Proactive?
Most budget adjustments and expendituresMost budget adjustments and expenditures
must be made early while energy is stillmust be made early while energy is still
relatively cheap and abundant and beforerelatively cheap and abundant and before
other costs risethe future is NOW!other costs risethe future is NOW!
However, could be a difficult task given flatHowever, could be a difficult task given flat
or declining budgets and inflationaryor declining budgets and inflationary
pressurespressures
Doing more with less will surely take on newDoing more with less will surely take on new
meaning for allmeaning for all
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Efficiency andConservationEfficiency andConservation
History shows that savings due toincreased fuel-efficiency can easily bewiped out by increased population(number of drivers) and energy use
(travel)
Not a strategy to enable business asusual, but one to effect a net reduction inoil consumption
Must be coupled with the eventualelimination of greenhouse gas emissionsfrom the burning of fossil fuels
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Solar and WindSolar and Wind
RetrofittingRetrofitting
existing facilitiesexisting facilities
and operating fieldand operating field
equipmentequipment Example: EasternExample: Eastern
Neck NationalNeck National
Wildlife Refuge onWildlife Refuge on
Marylands upperMarylands upperEastern ShoreEastern Shore
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Prediction: Budget pressures will force consolidation ofPrediction: Budget pressures will force consolidation of
natural resources agencies across the U.S.natural resources agencies across the U.S.Government in the next 5 years.Government in the next 5 years.
Flash: Creation of aFlash: Creation of a Earth Systems Science AgencyEarth Systems Science Agency
proposed byproposed by merging National Oceanic andmerging National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. GeologicalAtmospheric Administration and the U.S. Geological
Survey.Survey.
Question: Can the USDAForest Service, U. S. FishQuestion: Can the USDAForest Service, U. S. Fish
and Wildlife Service, Bureau ofLand Management,and Wildlife Service, Bureau ofLand Management,
and National Park Service be far behind? Hummmand National Park Service be far behind? Hummm
Natural Resources Management AgencyNatural Resources Management Agencyhas a certainhas a certain
ring to it!ring to it!
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ConclusionsConclusions
Peak Oil will force drastic changes inPeak Oil will force drastic changes innatural resource management programsnatural resource management programsand prioritiesand priorities
Major challenge to protect and manage theMajor challenge to protect and manage theintegrity of our forests and other bioticintegrity of our forests and other bioticsystemssystems
Greater emphasis onGreater emphasis on REALREAL sustainablesustainable
resource management strategiesresource management strategies
Whether we leave a natural heritage forWhether we leave a natural heritage forour descendents and future generationsour descendents and future generationswill depend on the pathway we take now!will depend on the pathway we take now!