PC - Power Snapshots -Oct 14 -...
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Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report. Power Snapshots Demand revives and so does the power deficits 21 October 2014 PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. Our monthly chart book tracks key variables across the power sector including power generation, deficits, capacity addition, coal production/off take and short term market prices. Key highlights for the month are: » All India power generation up 4% YoY, PLF’s suboptimal. In Sept, all India generation grew 4% YoY to 85BU’s; generation growth was mainly driven by hydro and nuclear based generation up 8.5% and 8% respectively. All India PLF’s at 54% was down 300bps YoY. » NTPC’s generation up 2%, PAF also takes a hit: NTPC’s coal based generation was up 2% YoY to 17.7BU due to base effect, (Sept’13 generation grew 17%). Coal based PLF was down 4.1 ppt YoY to 74% (+4ppt on MoM basis). Gas based generation improved 32% YoY. Gas based PLF was down 100 bps to 31%. » IPP’s utilization improves: The utilization for IPP’s improved 600bps YoY to 69% and generation was up 12% YoY. Also since few state based plants were under shutdown, it also lead to improvement in PLF. Rosa TPS reported PLF of 93% and JSW Ratnagiri TPS reported PLF of 95%. » Sharp fall in coal prices; CIL production steady but off take subdued. RB index prices were down 6% mom to ~ USD66/ton and low grade Indonesian coal prices were flat mom. The dip in RB index prices would be beneficial for imported coal dependent project like Adani’s Mundra TPS, JSW Energy Vijaynagar and Ratnagiri TPS. CIL‘s production in Sept ’14 stood at 35mn tons up 5% YoY and dispatches were down 2% YoY. For FY15, production during April‐ September was up 5.5 % YoY and dispatches were up 3%. » Demand improves: Demand has picked up significantly and was up 7% YoY in Sept’14 and supply grew 6.5% YoY leading to base deficit at 4.1%, up 70bps YoY. We note sharp increase in deficit in Southern India in Telangana (6%) and in UP (22%). The peak deficit was flat YoY at 3.6%. The average IEX prices were up 38% to Rs 4.2/kwh and in Southern region IEX prices stood at 15%. » 3,320 MW capacities added in August ’14; 5GW added YTDFY15. In Aug ’14 capacity addition stood at 3320 MW including thermal capacity and during FY15 (April‐August’14) capacity addition was 8.3 GW, 153% of the targeted capacity. Key capacities commissioned during August include 600 MW Akaltara Project (KSK Energy), 600MW Raghunathpur (DVC) , 660 MW Unit 5 of Sasan UMPP , 660 MW Unit 1 of Nigri TPS (JPVL) and 800 MW Damodar Sanjeeviah by AP Discom Ankur Sharma (+ 9122 6667 759 [email protected]) Hrishikesh Bhagat (+ 9122 6667 9986 [email protected])
Transcript of PC - Power Snapshots -Oct 14 -...
Please refer to Disclosures and Disclaimers at the end of the Research Report.
Power Snapshots Demand revives and so does the power deficits
21 October 2014PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.
Our monthly chart book tracks key variables across the power sector including power generation, deficits, capacity addition, coal production/off take and short term market prices. Key highlights for the month are:
» All India power generation up 4% YoY, PLF’s suboptimal. In Sept, all India generation grew 4% YoY to 85BU’s; generation growth was mainly driven by hydro and nuclear based generation up 8.5% and 8% respectively. All India PLF’s at 54% was down 300bps YoY.
» NTPC’s generation up 2%, PAF also takes a hit: NTPC’s coal based generation was up 2% YoY to 17.7BU due to base effect, (Sept’13 generation grew 17%). Coal based PLF was down 4.1 ppt YoY to 74% (+4ppt on MoM basis). Gas based generation improved 32% YoY. Gas based PLF was down 100 bps to 31%.
» IPP’s utilization improves: The utilization for IPP’s improved 600bps YoY to 69% and generation was up 12% YoY. Also since few state based plants were under shutdown, it also lead to improvement in PLF. Rosa TPS reported PLF of 93% and JSW Ratnagiri TPS reported PLF of 95%.
» Sharp fall in coal prices; CIL production steady but off take subdued. RB index prices were down 6% mom to ~ USD66/ton and low grade Indonesian coal prices were flat mom. The dip in RB index prices would be beneficial for imported coal dependent project like Adani’s Mundra TPS, JSW Energy Vijaynagar and Ratnagiri TPS. CIL‘s production in Sept ’14 stood at 35mn tons up 5% YoY and dispatches were down 2% YoY. For FY15, production during April‐ September was up 5.5 % YoY and dispatches were up 3%.
» Demand improves: Demand has picked up significantly and was up 7% YoY in Sept’14 and supply grew 6.5% YoY leading to base deficit at 4.1%, up 70bps YoY. We note sharp increase in deficit in Southern India in Telangana (6%) and in UP (22%). The peak deficit was flat YoY at 3.6%. The average IEX prices were up 38% to Rs 4.2/kwh and in Southern region IEX prices stood at 15%.
» 3,320 MW capacities added in August ’14; 5GW added YTDFY15. In Aug ’14 capacity addition stood at 3320 MW including thermal capacity and during FY15 (April‐August’14) capacity addition was 8.3 GW, 153% of the targeted capacity. Key capacities commissioned during August include 600 MW Akaltara Project (KSK Energy), 600MW Raghunathpur (DVC) , 660 MW Unit 5 of Sasan UMPP , 660 MW Unit 1 of Nigri TPS (JPVL) and 800 MW Damodar Sanjeeviah by AP Discom
Ankur Sharma (+ 9122 6667 759 [email protected]) Hrishikesh Bhagat (+ 9122 6667 9986 [email protected])
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21 October 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
All India generation and PLF’s
All India Capacity (excl renew.) and PLF (MW)
In August ’14 all India PLF was flat YoY at 55.5% and was up 400 bps MoM driven by seasonal variation.
Fuel wise generation and growth (%)
Thermal generation stood at 66BU up 2.6% YoY lead by robust coal based generation. Nuclear generation was up 9% to 2.7BU and hydro generation was up 7.8% .
Thermal PLF’s (sector wise) (%)
Central utilities PLF declined YoY to 61%. State utilities PLF stood at 56% and IPP’s PLF although sub optimal improved 600bps to 69%.
PLF by fuel type (%)
Overall coal PLF’s were flat MoM at 60% but down 500bps YoY. Gas based plants continue to operate at sub‐optimal PLF of 19%.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 October 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
NTPC’s generation and PLF’s
Coal based generation and PLF
NTPC’s coal based generation was up 2% to 17.7 BU. We note decline in share of NTPC’s generation as a % of overall generation to ~20% vs. 28‐30% historically.
Gas based generation and PLF
NTPC’s gas based generation was down 2% and PLF’s continue to languish at 31% on low availability of gas.
Coal based PLF (Plant wise)
NTPC’s Rihand TPS and Sipat TPS reported substantial improvement on YoY basis. PLF of Tanda TPS and Singrauli TPS declined significantly yoy
Gas based PLF (plant wise)
PLF for most gas based plants improved MoM.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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NTPC’s generation and PLF’s
NTPC’ coal based generation (MU)
Sep‐13 Oct‐13 Nov‐13 Dec‐13 Jan‐14 Feb‐14 Mar‐14 Apr‐14 May‐14 Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Aug‐14 Sep‐14Growth
YoYGrowth MoM
Badarpur 342 344 250 300 382 321 281 270 371 433 405 290 237 (13) 38 Dadri 1,113 1,155 1,098 1,100 1,239 1,042 1,082 847 1,168 1,166 1,086 1,015 1,055 3 38 Farakka 1,079 1,134 1,091 1,282 1,302 1,095 1,244 1,026 1,148 1,034 1,130 1,086 919 9 12 Kahalgaon 1,130 1,213 1,291 1,402 1,387 1,186 1,338 1,381 1,311 1,242 1,096 1,179 1,140 16 (5) Korba 1,797 1,794 1,893 1,798 1,909 1,742 1,853 1,626 1,743 1,756 1,403 1,344 1,700 (8) 7 Mauda 18 5 100 136 193 195 148 380 329 215 216 284 274 (14) Ramagundem 1,437 1,453 1,716 1,802 1,729 1,722 1,881 1,875 1,623 1,592 1,565 1,554 1,444 (15) (13) Rihand 1,408 1,390 1,475 1,705 1,554 1,549 1,810 1,939 1,882 1,775 1,729 1,466 1,567 8 (3) Simhadri 1,133 1,043 1,025 1,295 1,382 1,310 1,445 1,458 1,452 1,380 1,386 1,034 1,048 19 (0) Singrauli 1,316 1,483 1,446 1,457 1,429 1,300 1,089 1,329 1,308 1,267 1,290 1,145 1,099 (5) (2) Sipat 1,465 1,062 1,568 1,950 1,983 1,624 2,025 2,021 1,601 1,547 1,567 1,690 1,921 16 (21) Talcher 323 323 322 344 348 311 349 334 647 318 267 308 300 91 93 Talcher 1,674 1,433 1,955 2,015 2,165 1,938 2,204 2,095 1,795 1,731 1,722 1,658 2,183 17 (14) Tanda 239 263 317 331 319 296 302 272 303 251 284 242 248 (10) 11 Unchahar 716 591 702 710 704 644 644 618 644 696 751 708 555 (8) 4 Vindhyachal 2,162 2,361 2,525 2,677 2,393 2,335 2,753 2,849 2,874 2,620 2,320 1,830 2,083 16 1 Coal gen 17,351 17,049 18,776 20,304 20,418 18,610 20,449 20,392 20,217 19,065 18,330 16,875 17,773 8 (1)
NTPC’ coal based PLF’s (%)
PLF (%) Sep‐13 Oct‐13 Nov‐13 Dec‐13 Jan‐14 Feb‐14 Mar‐14 Apr‐14 May‐14 Jun‐14 Jul‐14 Aug‐14 Sep‐14YoY (%)
MoM (%)
Badarpur 67 66 49 57 73 68 64 53 71 85 77 55 46 (10.8) 17.6 Dadri 85 85 84 81 91 85 80 65 86 82 80 75 77 2.4 21.7 Farakka 71 73 72 82 83 78 80 68 73 68 72 69 61 5.9 5.6 Kahalgaon 67 70 77 81 80 75 77 82 75 74 63 68 60 10.1 (6.7)Korba 96 93 101 93 99 100 96 87 90 94 73 69 70 (7.5) 3.3 Mauda 5 1 28 36 52 58 18 53 44 30 29 38 44 44.2 (8.6)Ramagundem 77 75 92 93 89 99 97 100 84 85 81 80 76 (14.4) (16.3)Rihand 78 75 82 92 84 92 89 90 84 82 77 66 74 (9.0) (5.5)Simhadri 79 70 71 87 93 97 97 101 98 96 93 69 71 15.6 (3.6)Singrauli 91 100 100 98 96 97 73 92 88 88 87 77 75 (5.0) (4.4)Sipat 68 48 73 88 89 81 91 94 72 72 71 76 87 10.0 (22.0)Talcher 95 92 95 98 100 98 100 101 102 96 78 90 88 5.6 1.5 Talcher 78 64 91 90 97 96 99 97 96 80 77 74 81 27.2 (1.1)Tanda 75 80 100 101 97 100 92 86 92 79 87 74 74 (10.0) 6.6 Unchahar 95 76 93 91 90 91 82 82 82 92 96 91 73 (6.9) 0.6 Vindhyachal 80 84 93 96 86 92 93 93 91 85 73 58 68 2.2 (2.2)Coal PLF (rhs) 78 74 84 88 89 90 87 87 84 82 76 70 74 2.7 (3.3)
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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IPP’s generation and PLF’s
Tata Power ‐ Mundra UMPP
Mundra UMPP’s PLF stood at 66% as one of the unit was under shut down.
Tata Power ‐ Maithon power
Maithon PLF stood at 73% down MoM.
Adani Power ‐ Mundra
Adani Power’s Mundra unit operated at PLF of 66% as it has stopped supply to Haryana due to uneconomical operation..
Reliance Power ‐ Rosa
Rosa TPS PLF at 93% due to higher demand from UP.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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IPP’s generation and PLF’s
JSW Energy ‐ Vijaynagar
JSW continued generation at robust PLF in Vijaynagar. For the260MW plant, PLF stood at 101% and in the 660MW plant PLF stood at 60%.
JSW Energy‐ Ratnagiri
Ratnagiri generation stood at 818MU and PLF stood at 95%.
JSW Energy‐ RWPL
Rajwest PLF improved to 79% lead by clearance for mineexpansion.
Torrent – Sugen
Subdued performance in Sugen continued due to lower availability of gas. PLF stood at 26%.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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IPP’s generation and PLF’s
Karcham Wangtoo
Karcham Wangtoo PLF stood at 109% led by seasonal factors on higher availability of water.
Bina
Bina TPS reported PLF at 56% as merchant capacity continueto suffer.
CESC
CESC generated 811MU in Sept, ‘14 while PLF’s was flat YoY at87%
Jindal Power – Tamnar I
Tamnar TPS generated 1 BU and operated at PLF of 97%.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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International coal prices and Coal India’s production/off take Richard Bay, New Castle and HBA index (USD/ton)
Source: Bloomberg, PhillipCapital India Research
RB index prices were down 6% mom to ~ USD66/ton to almost 4 year lows in the month of Sept’14. New Castle and HBA index also followed a similar trend.
CIL production (mn ton) & growth
CIL production in Sept ’14 stood at 35mton up 5% yoy due tolower base. In FY15, production during April‐ Sept was up 5.4%yoy.
CIL off take (mn ton) & growth
CIL off take in Sept ’14 stood at 35mton down 2% yoy. In FY15, during April‐ Sept offtake grew 3% yoy.
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 October 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
Energy demand and supply
Power demand(MU) and growth
Demand has picked up meaningfully and was up 7% YoY in Sept’14
Base deficit and Peak deficit
Base deficit was up 70bps yoy to 4.1%. The peak deficit was flat yoy at 3.5%
Region wise base deficit
The deficit in Northern region was up 200bps yoy to 6%. In Southern region deficit was flat at 3%.
Power cut on industry
Power cut in industry in Northern region was mainly led by Uttarakhand (140 MW) and UP (700MW). In Southern region,all the states contributed leading to power cuts on industry of 5,667MW.
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 October 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
Short term volumes and prices
Short term volumes (MU) & as % of overall gen Bilateral volumes(MU) and prices
Short term volumes stood at 9.6BU’s, ~11% of total generation
Bilateral volumes improved 26% mom to 5.5BU and Bilateral prices was up 3% yoy to Rs 4.03/kwh.
UI volumes(MU) and prices
UI volumes were up 4% yoy and UI prices were down 3% mom to Rs 2.87/kwh.
IEX volumes(MU) and prices
The IEX prices were down 6% mom Rs 3.5/kwh in the month of July ’14 and volumes were down 10% mom. The average IEX price in Sept was up 38% YoY to Rs 4.2/kwh and in southern region was up 15% to Rs 4.5/kwh.
Source: CERC, PhillipCapital India Research
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21 October 2014 / INDIA EQUITY RESEARCH / POWER SECTOR SNAPSHOTS
Capacity addition
Capacity addition month wise
In Aug ’14 capacity addition stood at 3320MW of thermal capacity
Installed capacity break up as on Sept,’14 – 237GW
All India installed capacity stood at 249GW in Sep ‘14. Coal capacity comprised 60%. We expect contribution of coal based capacity to further improve.
Capacity Addition: Capacity Addition Aug '14 Target Ach (%) YTDFY15 Target Ach (%)Thermal 3320 1233 260 8051 5,151 156Nuclear ‐ ‐ na ‐ na Hydro 130 85 267 286 93Total 3320 1363 260 8318 5,437 153
Source: CEA, PhillipCapital India Research In Aug ’14 capacity addition stood at 3320 MW including thermal capacity and during FY15 (April‐August’14) capacity addition was 8.3 GW, 153% of the targeted capacity. Key capacities commissioned during August include 600 MW Akaltara Project (KSK Energy), 600MW Raghunathpur (DVC) , 660 MW Unit 5 of Sasan UMPP , 660 MW Unit 1 of Nigri TPS (JPVL) and 800 MW Damodar Sanjeeviah by AP Discom
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