Paul Hoffman – [email protected] 703-377-0496 [email protected] Personal Rapid Transit...
Transcript of Paul Hoffman – [email protected] 703-377-0496 [email protected] Personal Rapid Transit...
Paul Hoffman – Paul Hoffman – [email protected] 703-377-0496
Personal Rapid Transit
Strategies for Advancing Strategies for Advancing
The State Of The IndustryThe State Of The Industry
Transportation Research Board - January 23, 2007Transportation Research Board - January 23, 2007
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AgendaAgendaAgendaAgenda
The Urban Transportation Challenge
Overview of Personal Rapid Transit
Performance Comparisons
State of the Industry
Lessons Learned from Other Industries
The Transportation Utility Business Model
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Congestion – The Urban Transportation ChallengeCongestion – The Urban Transportation ChallengeCongestion – The Urban Transportation ChallengeCongestion – The Urban Transportation Challenge
Congestion in the U.S. is a significant problem affecting:
Economic viability of urban regions
Quality of life
Environment
National metrics of congestion*:
2.3 billion annual gallons of fuel wasted
$63 billion in financial costs
Average annual delay per person 93 hours in Los Angeles 69 hours in Washington DC 49 hours in NY/NJ 47 hours US average
Congestion is only getting worse and has increased an average 9% per year since 1982
*Source TTI 2005 Urban Mobility Study
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1919thth Century Options for a 21 Century Options for a 21stst Century Problem Century Problem1919thth Century Options for a 21 Century Options for a 21stst Century Problem Century Problem
Expansion of current modes is limited by:
High costs
Land availability
Impact and public acceptance
Highways
Expensive in urban areas
Limited land availability
Metro/Commuter Rail
Expensive in urban areas
Light Rail
High service factor but limited by surface traffic unless separated at higher cost
Bus
Low cost but limited by surface traffic and slower trip times
Additional capacity is needed
ITS can optimize use of current infrastructure
Congestion pricing can manage demand
New infrastructure that offers high service and capacity at a reasonable cost and impact is also needed to meet growing demand
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The Genesis of PRT - Needs and Features The Genesis of PRT - Needs and Features The Genesis of PRT - Needs and Features The Genesis of PRT - Needs and Features
A New Paradigm for Urban Public Transportation
PRT has been engineered as an innovative and new system using advanced, commercially available automation to address the needs of urban transportation
Need Design Feature and Goal
Faster and more attractive service
Non-stop, on-demand service
Private, seated-only vehicles
Lower operating costs Reduced staffing through increased levels of automation
Reduced energy use
Lower capital costs Reduced size of infrastructure for stations, track and right-of-way
Improve urban integration and access
Lower costs, smaller footprint and tighter turning radius to integrate into dense urban environments
Reduce congestion Faster and personalized service to attract private automobile users
Reduced pollution Quiet, electric vehicles
Reduced energy use Small, lightweight vehicles operating non-stop and on demand to eliminate unnecessary vehicle movements
Increased safety and security Distributed demand and continuous flow to eliminate crowds under advanced monitoring and control
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Technology Overview – PRT FundamentalsTechnology Overview – PRT FundamentalsTechnology Overview – PRT FundamentalsTechnology Overview – PRT Fundamentals
Fundamental elements of PRT technology:
On-demand, non-stop, origin-to-destination service
Small, automated vehicles
Small, exclusive use guideways
Off-line stations
Network of connected guideways
Combines elements of automotive, computer, network and transit technologies
Uses current state-of-the-art technologies including:
Advanced propulsion systems
On-board switching and guidance
High speed controls and communication
Lightweight advanced materials
PRT represents a new option for sustainable,
effective urban transportation providing higher access and service
at a lower cost than current transit options.
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Components of PRTComponents of PRTComponents of PRTComponents of PRT
Small, fully automated vehicles
Small, exclusive use guideways
Small guideway and foundation reduces right of
way requirements
Low impact allows ease of urban integration
Skyweb Express ULTra Vectus
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3 Berth
6 Berth
9 Berth
12 Berth
3 Berth
6 Berth
9 Berth
12 Berth
Components of PRTComponents of PRTComponents of PRTComponents of PRT
Off-line stations sized to demand
Networks supporting distributed demand and line haul access
Line-Haul Rail System
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Comparison and Performance of PRTComparison and Performance of PRTComparison and Performance of PRTComparison and Performance of PRT
PRT is expected to offer cost and performance improvements over conventional transit and road solutions. Expected benefits from engineering studies and pilots systems include:
Need Design Feature and Goal
Faster total travel times 14 – 65% faster overall travel speeds than rail
Lower operating costs 25 -50% lower than light rail
Comparable or slightly higher than heavy rail
Lower or comparable with automobile
Lower capital costs 25-50% lower than light rail
35-75% lower than monorail or heavy rail
Reduced energy use Auto equivalent of 70-90 mpg
Up to 50% less than rail
Capacity Comparable to light rail and advanced bus systems
Lower than heavy rail per corridor, higher on a capacity/cost basis
One-way guideway equal to 2-3 highway lanes
Small right of way 3’-5’ wide guideway
Able to be installed on curb or median
Stations integrated into buildings
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PRT Performance Comparison – Average SpeedPRT Performance Comparison – Average SpeedPRT Performance Comparison – Average SpeedPRT Performance Comparison – Average Speed
Average speed is determined by line speed, number of stops, distance between stops, dwell time at stops, and trip length
PRT systems can achieve an average speed of 20-25 mph with line speed of 25-30 mph due to non-stop trip
PRT trips can be 80-100% faster than a typical bus trip
PRT trips can be 20-30% faster than a typical heavy rail trip
All else being equal, higher average speed can result in higher patronage
Source: 2005 APTA Fact Book
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20
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Avera
ge S
peed (m
ph)
TransitAverage
Metro Rail Light Rail Bus PRT
Mode
Non-stop service allows PRT to have higher average speeds than
other transit modes
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O&M Cost ComparisonO&M Cost ComparisonO&M Cost ComparisonO&M Cost Comparison
$0.00$0.10$0.20$0.30$0.40$0.50$0.60$0.70$0.80$0.90
O&M Cost Per Passenger Mile
Source: 2005 APTA Transit Fact Book, NJT, FTA, Case Studies, PRT Vendors
High levels of automation, reliable commercial components and exclusive use guideways should allow PRT systems to have
competitive Operating and Maintenance (O&M) costs.
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O&M Cost and Revenue Per Trip ComparisonO&M Cost and Revenue Per Trip ComparisonO&M Cost and Revenue Per Trip ComparisonO&M Cost and Revenue Per Trip Comparison
Transit O&M cost recovery is 34% nationally
PRT systems can be expected to recover a higher percentage of O&M costs if fares reflect per mile O&M cost
PRT in a moderate scale application can expect to break even on operating costs for an average four mile trip and average fare of $1.60
Source: 2005 APTA Transit Fact Book, NJT, FTA, Case Studies, PRT Vendors
$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8$9
US Ove
rall
US Commuter
US LRT
US Bus
US Metro
M-PRT
PRT
$ pe
r T
rip
Revenue O&M Cost
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PRT Capital Cost ComparisonPRT Capital Cost ComparisonPRT Capital Cost ComparisonPRT Capital Cost Comparison
Capital costs are highly specific to location, line layout, number and complexity of stations
The design of PRT systems, with small vehicles and guideways, can support lower capital costs than other exclusive, grade-separated, fixed guideway rail systems
PRT costs can be expected to be comparable with exclusive right-of-way BRT systems
Lower capital costs would be primarily due to:
Smaller guideway and stations
Reduced civil work and right-of-way acquisition
Capital Cost/Mile ($M)
Mode Low Average High
Metro Rail $110 $200 $2,000
Light Rail $25 $50-$70 $195
APM – Urban $30 $100-$120 $145
APM - Airport $49 $100-$150 $237
BRT Busway $7 $14-$25 $50
BRT Tunnel $200 $250 $300
PRT One Way $15 $20-$35 $50
PRT Two Way $25 $30- $50 $75
Sources:Kerr-2005, TCRP –R90, GAO – BRT 2000, Vendor Estimates, Case Studies
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PRT Energy ComparisonPRT Energy ComparisonPRT Energy ComparisonPRT Energy Comparison
Source: Anderson 1998 - Note: PRT figures are engineering estimates only
HR - Heavy Rail Transit; LR - Light Rail Transit; TB - Trolley Bus; MB - Motor Bus; VP - Van Pool; DB - Dial-a-Bus;
A - Automobile; PR - Personal Rapid Transit.
PRT can provide lower overall energy use than other transit modes with an auto equivalent of 70-90 MPG
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PRT Performance Comparison – CapacityPRT Performance Comparison – CapacityPRT Performance Comparison – CapacityPRT Performance Comparison – Capacity
Line capacity is determined by headway, vehicle capacity and load factor
PRT systems can have comparable line capacity with bus and light rail if safe and reliable short headway operation is achieved
PRT systems can have higher overall system capacity when multiple lines and network layouts are considered with comparable total costs
Source: TCRP Transit Capacity Manual
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Passengers/Hour/Direction (k)
Observed
METRO RAIL Theoretical
Observed
LIGHT RAIL Theoretical
Observed
BUSWAY Theoretical
Expected
PRT Theoretical
Transit Mode Line Capacity
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PRT Technology MaturationPRT Technology MaturationPRT Technology MaturationPRT Technology Maturation
PRT has followed an extended R&D stage and is entering an early adopter stage of maturation
Hig
hA
doptio
nLo
w
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Basic Research -Concept Development
Applied Research -Prototype and Pilot Systems
Early Adopters - Public Systems
Small – Moderate Scale Systems
Large Scale Urban Mass Market
Cabintaxi, CVS, Raytheon, ULTRa, EDICT, Vectus, Siemens?
Aerospace, UMTA, AGRT, U of M
Morgantown Heathrow, UAE? Sweden? Macau?
Standardization, Public/Private Development
Regulated Utilities, Commoditization
We are at a technology inflection point
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Summary PRT State-of-the-IndustrySummary PRT State-of-the-IndustrySummary PRT State-of-the-IndustrySummary PRT State-of-the-Industry
Active or past test track operationULTra, CabinTaxi, Raytheon, CVS, Morgantown, Aramis
Current prototype developmentVectus, SkyWeb Express, Microrail, Coaster, Ecotaxi/Kone
Readiness
Significant research, engineering, development and application studies for over 40 years
Past efforts provide a solid foundation for final engineering and development
Advanced technology components are proven and ready to support an integrated PRT system design
An optimum configuration and viable vendor base has not been established
Acceptance
Cities and regions continue to display interest in PRT and select as preferred alternative but disqualify PRT due to lack of proven technology
Research and developmentDevelopers are limited due to lack of market acceptance and financial backingKorean, Swedish and British development programs underway
Current application interest and procurementsGreat Britain - Heathrow; United States; Dubai, UAE; Korea; Europe
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Moving Forward – PRT as Full Option for Urban TransportationMoving Forward – PRT as Full Option for Urban TransportationMoving Forward – PRT as Full Option for Urban TransportationMoving Forward – PRT as Full Option for Urban Transportation
Conventional transit guideway systems have difficulty providing urban scale service due to limitations including:
Custom designs
Limited standards and interoperability
Limited scalability
Expensive and disruptive implementation
Required transfers between line haul segments
Service reductions for station additions
To achieve the promise of an urban transportation solution, PRT will need to:
Avoid custom designs and vendor specific solutions that limit scalability, require transfers, increase complexity
Adopt standards and commercial business models that provide increase revenue potential and decreased costs
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Vision for the Future PRT - The Network Utility ModelVision for the Future PRT - The Network Utility ModelVision for the Future PRT - The Network Utility ModelVision for the Future PRT - The Network Utility Model
PRT has the opportunity to develop a new business model with the potential to SCALE beyond the limited access of fixed guideway transit
The model is founded on the success of other commercial network businesses such as:
Telephone
Internet
Cell Phones
Cable
These network industries are founded on several fundamental principles:
Open standards
Mass production and economies of scale
Multiple suppliers and providers
Government regulation of public access and right of way
Market pricing
Open competition
Private funding
Transit can also follow these network successes if the fundamentals are applied to a common technology
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Scalable Transit NetworksScalable Transit NetworksScalable Transit NetworksScalable Transit Networks
PRT systems have the potential to evolve from local circulation and distribution systems to a full regional network
Franchise District #1
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Scalable Transit NetworksScalable Transit NetworksScalable Transit NetworksScalable Transit Networks
PRT systems have the potential to evolve from local circulation and distribution systems to a full regional network
Franchise District #1
Franchise District #3
Franchise District #2
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The Internet ExampleThe Internet ExampleThe Internet ExampleThe Internet Example
Standard-Enabled Business
TCP/IP protocol allowed all manufacturers to build to a common standard that allowed different devices and software products to work on a common network.
A commercial business model with mass production, competition and division of providers
Backbone Trunk Lines
Devices
Software
Customer Access
Billing
Administration
Content Providers
Private utilities with government regulatory involvement
The Internet: On Demand Information, Anytime,
Anywhere
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PRT StandardsPRT StandardsPRT StandardsPRT Standards
Performance and technical standards needed for scaleable PRT deployments:
Vehicle Guideway Interface
Power
Propulsion
Control and Communication
Ticketing
Safety, Security
Development of standards can occur:
As de facto from the industry leading technology
In cooperation with public agencies, federal government, associations, and manufacturers
Standards allow competition and mass production to occur resulting in:
• reduced costs
• increased quality
• market certainty
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PRT Standards – Vehicle Guideway InterfacePRT Standards – Vehicle Guideway InterfacePRT Standards – Vehicle Guideway InterfacePRT Standards – Vehicle Guideway Interface
The vehicle guideway interface is a critical standard that will require market validation to determine the optimum configuration
ULTra Vehicle Front Elevation & Transverse Section Ref.: OJECVehicleElevations1Drawn by JD Robertson
NTSAll Dimensions in mm.
9 August 2004
CommercialIn Confidence
Advanced Transport Systems Ltd.Unit 5, Brunel Way, Thornbury, Bristol BS35 3URTel.: 0044-1454-414700 Fax: 0044-1454-414770This drawing is the property of Advanced Transport Systems Ltd. and may only be shown orcopied to third parties with the prior agreement of the company.
Front Elevation:
114mm. unladen84mm. at 1200kg. GVW
Front Track - 950mm.
1800 (unladen)1770 (at 1200kg. GVW)
1400 (at rubbing strip)1455 (max.at bottom of window)
Transverse Cross Section at Vehicle Centreline:(looking towards the fixed rear seats)
60
190
Internal Widthat Floor Level = 1220
195 19550
Max. ClearInterior Height= 1460
860
5555
Clear DoorOpeningHeight= 1415
105
300
Skyweb Express ULTra Vectus
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Transportation Utility Business ModelTransportation Utility Business ModelTransportation Utility Business ModelTransportation Utility Business Model
Structured to be a distributed, self-promulgating model similar to the Internet, Cable or Cellular
Elements of an integrated business model
Regulator Agency
Developers/Franchise Holders
Service Operators
Vehicle Operators
Manufacturers
Regulatory agency:
Sells or grants public access/right-of-way through franchises
Oversee standards compliance
Insure safety, security, equal access
Manage fare policy and costs of developer/service provider
Manage central operations provider
Provides supplemental funding
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Development Funded Capital ExpansionDevelopment Funded Capital ExpansionDevelopment Funded Capital ExpansionDevelopment Funded Capital Expansion
Developers
Granted air-rights to install guideways in specific regions
Multiple developers with adjoining regions provide connectivity between networks
Contract with manufacturers to build and install guideways
Contract with central operations provider for system management and control
Revenue Opportunities
Value Capture from capital appreciation or revenue from increased land value and real estate development
Station Fee from local developers to install stations and off-line guideways as an aid to development
Franchise #1 Network
Franchise #2 Network
Cargo Services
Fare Revenue
Right-of-Way Fees
Advertising and Entertainment fees
Supplemental Public Support
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Operators Contract to Provide ServicesOperators Contract to Provide ServicesOperators Contract to Provide ServicesOperators Contract to Provide Services
Service Operators
Provide command and control functions
Supervise overall control of system
Insure vehicles and guideway sections are performing to standards
Vehicle Operators
Multiple providers are allowed to operate vehicles
Similar to access providers for the internet
Contract with manufacturers to build vehicles
Contract with service operators for access to systems
Manufacturers
Build components such as control, vehicles and guideways to standards
Compete on design, cost, efficacy, reliability, performance
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SummarySummarySummarySummary
PRT has the potential to offer:
High level of service that can potentially attract drivers from their cars and help relieve congestion
Lower capital and operating costs than other fixed rail options
Lower right-of-way requirements and opportunity to integrate and expand existing transportation systems with potentially reduced urban disruption
Reduced energy use and environmental impact
Increased safety and security
To advance beyond limited scale implementations, the industry needs:
Proven performance in public applications
Safe and reliable service
Standardized and scaleable technology
Mass production and economies of scale
A business model that: Reduces government capital and operating investments through private
development and value capture Allows market competition and innovation to address urban needs