Ecological Conditions of US National Parks: Ecological Conditions of US National Parks: Enabling Decision Support Through Monitoring, Enabling Decision Support Through Monitoring,

Analysis, and ForecastingAnalysis, and Forecasting

NASA Applications Sciences Program: Decision Support through Earth Science Research Results (DECISIONS)

NPS I&M Program

Park Analysis of Landscapes and Monitoring Support (PALMS)

or

Andy Hansen and Nate Piekielek, Montana State University

Scott Goetz, Woods Hole Research Center

John Gross, NPS I&M Program

Forrest Melton and Rama Nemani, CSU Monterey Bay / NASA Ames

Dave Theobald, Colorado State University

Ecological Conditions of US National Parks: Enabling Ecological Conditions of US National Parks: Enabling Decision Support Through Monitoring, Analysis, and Decision Support Through Monitoring, Analysis, and

ForecastingForecasting

Background:

The US NPS Inventory and Monitoring (I&M) Program is developing scientifically sound information on the status and trends of national park condition.

NASA products can substantially enhance the success of the NPS I&M effort.

Our goal is to integrate the routine acquisition and analysis of NASA products and other data into the NPS I&M Program.

Ecological Conditions of US National Parks: Enabling Ecological Conditions of US National Parks: Enabling Decision Support Through Monitoring, Analysis, and Decision Support Through Monitoring, Analysis, and

ForecastingForecasting

1) Identify NASA data products and other satellite-derived data products useful to park monitoring.

2) Delineate the boundaries of the park-centered ecosystems appropriate for monitoring.

3) Develop indicators from the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) and other sources. Add value to these data sets for understanding change through analysis and forecasting.

4) Deliver these products and a means to integrate them into the NPS I&M decision support framework.

Objectives

NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program Networks

NPS I&M CollaboratorsNPS I&M Collaborators

Rocky Mountain

Yosemite

Delaware Water Gap

National Park Service Ownership

Focal Parks

Yellowstone and Grand

Teton

GRYN NetworkTom Olliff,

Cathy Jean, Rob Daily

SIEN NetworkLinda Mutch,

Bill Kuhn Alice Chung-MacCubrey

ROMO NetworkMike Britten

Billy Schweiger, Mike Story

ERMN NetworkMatthew

Marshall, Leslie Morelock,

Paul Hansen

Objective 1: IndicatorsObjective 1: Indicators

Objective 2: Protected Area Centered Ecosystems (PACEs)Objective 2: Protected Area Centered Ecosystems (PACEs)

Park-centered ecosystems were delineated using scientific criteria based on NASA products. These ecosystems are locations of high priority for monitoring, reporting, research, and collaborative management.

Objective 3: Product Development and Analysis: Objective 3: Product Development and Analysis: Climate Change Impacts Climate Change Impacts

Understanding climate change impacts is a high priority for NPS. Forecasts of climate change impacts from TOPS show reductions in snow water equivalent and ecosystem productivity for Yosemite National Park. These simulations increased NPS understanding of the potential rates of climate change impacts and implications for park management.

Predicted reductions in snow water equivalent and mean gross primary productivity in Yosemite from simulations using TOPS.

The TOPS Data Gateway for NPS summarizes indicators of potential climate change impacts derived from NASA satellites and models, including measures of shifts in vegetation phenology and trends in ecosystem productivity. The Data Gateway allows NPS to monitor for emerging patterns and trends within different ecosystem and land cover types.

Nemani et al. 2008. Rem. Sens. Env. 113

The richness of stream benthic taxa provides an indication of how

residential development is impacting the watersheds containing the parks.

Red = low / badGreen = high / good

Current and Predicted Urbanization

Using maps of future urbanization provided by this project and produced

with NASA data, NPS managers are managing to minimize future impact of development on park aquatic natural

resources .

The Upper Delaware Scenic River & Delaware Water Gap National Park

(shown in green above) are surrounded by lands experiencing increased residential development, which influences park management.

Objective 3: Product Development and Analysis: Objective 3: Product Development and Analysis: Land Use Change Impacts Land Use Change Impacts

Objective 3: Product Development and Analysis: Objective 3: Product Development and Analysis: Landscape DynamicsLandscape Dynamics

Connectivity of Natural LandscapesWhat: Measures the connectivity of natural

landscapes Why: Movement of plants & animals and

ecological processes connect to adjacent landscapes beyond the park boundary

Stressors: Land use change, climate changeExample: YOSE is situated on a pathway that

provides greater than average connectivity (compared nationwide) and serves as a key location of connectivity along the Sierra range.

Patterns of Natural Landscapes

What: Measures the natural landscape context

Why: Movement of plants & animals and ecological processes connect to adjacent landscapes beyond the park boundary

Stressors: Land use change, climate change

Example: DEWA scores higher than its ecoregion, but is declining from 0.6811 in 1992 to 0.6631 in 2001 to 0.6123 in 2030.

Theobald et al., 2010. Landscape Ecol

Habitat Connectivity across the

Northeastern United States

Connectivity and Patch habitat importance change as urbanization expands

and climate change alters habitat suitability..

Goetz et al. 2009, USGCRP OCP 2010

Objective 4: Deliver Products and a Means to Integrate into Objective 4: Deliver Products and a Means to Integrate into NPS I&M Decision Support FrameworkNPS I&M Decision Support Framework

• Methods – Standard Operating Procedure Manuals, ArcGIS plugins

• Data – Compiled within TOPS, ArcGIS geodatabases

• Stories - Interpretation of trends and interactions. Developed with NPS collaborators in a series of 3 conference calls.

• Summaries – Written synthesis documents for each network, e.g., Resource Briefs and Indicator Summaries

• Delivery - Web-services based interface (Ecocast), NPS web site, ArcServer

• Assessment – Satisfaction surveys with collaborators at midpoint and end of project.

Schedule: The project will be completed by the end of 2010

TOPS Data GatewayTOPS Data Gateway

• Browser-based, open source (ka-Map / Geoserver) data gateway

• Rapid data access, visualization, query, and analysis

• Supports timeseries plots, data queries

• FTP, WMS, WCS, OPeNDAP data access

• Direct access to metadata

Pan / zoom / query

Location / data value at cursor

Select date / layers

PALMS NPS Web SitePALMS NPS Web Site

PALMS NPS Web SitePALMS NPS Web Site

Key Accomplishments

• Successful development and application of ecological data products from NASA satellites and ecosystem models to support NPS I&M objectives.

• Mapping of the areas around parks that are of high priority for monitoring, research, and collaborative management.

• Analysis of changes in park conditions based on ecological hindcasts and forecasts, such as in habitat connectivity under past, current, and potential future climate and land use.

• Establishment of direct collaborations between NASA scientists and NPS scientists and managers.Testimonials“The approach taken to address land use change, connectivity, and climate were certainly novel, and will be highly valuable”. Stacey Ostermann-Kelm Greater Yellowstone Network

“Overall this seems like a very useful effort that can benefit the four parks and the NPS as a whole”. Mike Britten, Rocky Mountain Network

Contributions to NPS Decision SupportContributions to NPS Decision Support

Examples of Applications

•In SIEN Network, TOPS forecasts of potential ecosystem response to climate change were used to inform fire management strategies.

•The ERMN Network adapted the protocols for monitoring stream biota that were developed in this project.

•The GRYN Network is using results of land use change and biodiversity consequences to help formulate the Yellowstone Science Agenda.

•PALMS products on connectivity and PACEs were proposed for use by the Great Northern Landscape Conservation Cooperative.