Pantsuits and Combovers: Challenges and Opportunities for .... FABRICANT.pdf · Daniel Fabricant,...

Daniel Fabricant, Ph.D.

CEO & Exec. Director

NIA-West Spring Conference

May 25, 2016

Pantsuits and Combovers: Challenges and Opportunities for the most volatile political

cycle EVER!!!!

Politics, politics everywhere

Puerto Rico?????

Yes, the same place that brought you the Pina Colada

Debt problems

Next Industry Challenge brought to you by….

www.saveoursupplements.org

http://www.saveoursupplements.org/

PROMSEA

114th Congress

House of Representatives

• Majority Party: Republican (246)

• Minority Party: Democrat (188)

• Speaker of the House – Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin)

• Majority Leader – Kevin McCarthy (R-California)

• Minority Leader – Nancy Pelosi (D-California)

Senate

• Majority Party: Republican (54)

• Minority Party: Democrat (46)

• President Pro Tempore – The Honorable Orrin Hatch (R-Utah)

• Majority Leader – Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky)

• Minority Leader – Harry Reid (D-Nevada)

Next Congress – and a new Admin

House of Representatives

• R majority but not as big as it is now

Senate

• Big 4 states – WI, PA, NH, IL

• NV – Flip

• HELP – likely Patty Murray (D-WA)

– Elevation of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren

Donald Trump: Presumptive GOP Nominee

Darling of the anti-establishment grassroots

Currently the leader in the primaries and the likely Republican nominee

Concerns about his inexperience in politics and general lack of tact

Doesn’t connect with most moderate voters, women, or minorities.

National Total Contributions: $57.7 million

• Individual: $13,857,206

• PAC: $0

• Party: $58

• Candidate: $43,804,727

Total Disbursements: $55,080,299

Cash On Hand: $2,408,642

*Contributions Through 4/30/2016

Donald J. Trump (R)


• Individual: $206,025,230

• PAC: $5,150

• Party: $0

• Candidate: $0




Bernie Sanders (D)


• Individual: $709,256,820

• PAC: $2,281,842

• Party: $1,159

• Candidate: $45,785,688




All 2016 Presidential Candidates

What the hell is a PAC?

Video

https://youtu.be/SGGSycLAcyw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGGSycLAcyw

Hillary Clinton: $33,410,943

Bernie Sanders: $16,435,573

Donald J. Trump: $385,929


California 2016 Presidential Candidate Contributions

Thinning The Herd

Former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

Current front runner for the Democratic primary

Massive war-chest and organization

Questions about corruption

Are we tired of hearing about those emails?


• Individual: $185,564,858

• PAC: $1,181,170

• Party: $1,000

• Candidate: $796,562




Hillary Clinton (D)

Senator Bernie Sanders (Vermont)

Darling of young voters

Catching up to Hillary in Democratic Primary

Ranking Member of Senate Budget Committee

Self described Democratic Socialist, most liberal candidate in the race

The State of the 2016 Election’s GOP & Democratic Fields

Trump v. Clinton Recent Polling Data

Democrats need a net of five seats to win control of the senate

If there’s a 50/50 split, as there was in early 2001, control would depend on who wins the White House, because the vice president would break the tie

States with Senate Races in 2016

Republican-held seat – state won by Romney in 2012

Democratic-held seat

Mont.

Va. W .Va.

Ga.

Idaho

Ill.

Iowa

Kan. K y .

La.

Maine

Colo.

Del.

N.J.

Mass.

N.C.

S.C.

Mich.

Minn.

Miss.

R.I.

N.M.

T exas

W yo.

S.D.

Tenn. Okla.

Ore.

Ark.

N.H.

Alaska

Hawaii

Ala.

Mo.

Nev.

Vt.

Utah

Fla.

Ind. Ohio

Md.

N. Y. W is.

Conn.

Ariz.

N.D.

Pa.

Wash.

Calif.

Neb.

Republican-held seat – state won by Obama in 2012

Florida: Aug. 30 Primaries for OPEN SEAT

Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio, who isn’t running

Primaries: Aug. 30

Democrats: Representatives Alan Grayson and Patrick Murphy

Republicans: Representatives Ron DeSantis and David Jolly, developer Carlos Beruff, Lieutenant Governor Carlos Lopez-Cantera, and businessman Todd Wilcox

Why watch: A true swing state, Florida went for Obama by less than 1 percentage point in the 2012 presidential election — the closest margin in the nation.

Race ratings

Cook Political Report Toss-up

Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up

Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up

Photo credits: Lopez-Cantera from Florida website; all others from Twitter

Grayson

Murphy

DeSantis

Jolly

Lopez-Cantera

Wilcox

Beruff

Illinois: Kirk-Duckworth Battle this Fall

Incumbent: Republican Mark Kirk, vying for a second term (left)

Challenger: Democratic Representative Tammy Duckworth,(right)

Why watch: The incumbent is a Republican in a Democratic

state and the occupant of the Senate seat Obama once held.

Race ratings


Rothenberg & Gonzales Lean Democratic (changed May 5 from “Toss Up/Tilt Democrat”)

Sabato’s Crystal Ball Leans Democratic

Photo credits: Kirk from Senate website; Duckworth from House website

Nevada: Who Replaces Top Senate Democrat?

Incumbent: Democratic Leader Harry Reid, who is retiring

June 14 primaries may affirm heavy favorites:

Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, former state attorney general backed by Reid (left)

Republican Representative Joe Heck, emergency room doctor and veteran (right)

Why watch: This is the Republicans’ best opportunity to pick up a Democratic seat.

Race ratings




Photo credits: Heck from BGOV database; Masto from state attorney general website

New Hampshire: Ayotte-Hassan Matchup Ahead

Incumbent: Republican Kelly Ayotte (left)

Challenger: Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan (right)

Primaries: Sept. 13

Why watch: Obama won the state in 2012 and its voting patterns come close to mirroring the national popular vote in that election.

Race ratings


Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Republican


Photo credits: Ayotte ; Hassan from governor’s website

Ohio: Portman and Strickland to Face Off

Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (left)

Challenger: Former Governor Ted Strickland (right)

Why watch: Typically a bellwether in presidential elections, Ohio is one of the seven states that supported Obama in 2012 and have Republican Senate seats up for grabs. Portman and Strickland both are familiar faces to the electorate.

Race ratings




Photo credits: Portman from Senate website; Strickland from campaign website

Pennsylvania: Toomey-McGinty Race Set

Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey (left)

Challenger: Katie McGinty (right), former chief of staff to Governor Tom Wolf, who won April 26 primary; she was backed by White House and Democratic campaign arm and defeated former Representative Joe Sestak

Why watch: A Republican is defending a seat in a state that votes Democratic for president.

Race ratings




Photo credits: Toomey from Senate website; McGinty from Twitter account

Wisconsin: Johnson-Feingold Rematch Likely

Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson, seeking a second term (left)

Challenger: Former Senator Russ Feingold (right)

Primaries on Aug. 9

Why watch: The last time a Wisconsin Republican won a Senate race in a presidential election year was 1980, raising questions about what the presidential turnout will mean for Johnson’s re-election chances. Race ratings



Sabato’s Crystal Ball Leans Democratic

Photo credits: Johnson from Senate website; Feingold from campaign website biography

House Races to Watch in 2016

Governors’ Races in 2016

Source:

Democratic incumbent running

Republican incumbent running

Mont.

Neb.

Va. W.Va.

Ga.

Idaho

Ill.

Iowa

Kan. K y .

La.

Maine

Colo.

Del.

N.J.

Mass.

N.C.

S.C.

Mich.

Minn.

Miss.

R.I.

N.M.

T exas

W yo.

S.D.

T enn. Okla.

Ore.

Ark.

N.H.

Alaska

Hawaii

Ala.

Mo.

Ne v .

Vt.

Utah

Fla.

Ind. Ohio

Md.

N. Y . W is.

Conn.

Ariz.

N.D.

Pa.

Wash.

Calif.

Source: National Governors Association, 2016 Candidates and State Term Limit Information

Democratic incumbent not running

Republican incumbent not running

http://www.nga.org/cms/home/governors/elections/col2-content/2016-candidates-and-state-term-l.default.html

State Incumbent Democrats Republicans Primary date

Presidential vote 2012

Delaware Jack Markell (D) term-limited

• John Carney • Colin Bonini • Lacey Lafferty

Sept. 13 Obama 59% Romney 40%

Indiana Mike Pence (R), seeking re-election

• John Gregg • Pence May 3 Romney 54% Obama 44%

Missouri Jay Nixon (D), term-limited

• Chris Koster • John Brunner • Eric Greitens • Catherine

Hanaway • Peter Kinder

Aug. 2 Romney 54% Obama 44%

Montana Steve Bullock (D), seeking re-election

• Bullock • Greg Gianforte June 7 Romney 55% Obama 42%

New Hampshire

Maggie Hassan (D), running for U.S. Senate

• Mark Connolly • Colin Van Ostern • Steve Marchand

• Frank Edelblut • Ted Gatsas • Chris Sununu • Jeanie Forrester

Sept. 13 Obama 52% Romney 46%

North Carolina

Pat McCrory (R), seeking re-election

• Roy Cooper • McCrory March 15 Romney 50% Obama 48%

Source: National Governors Association, 2016 Candidates and State Term Limit Information; state election boards

States With Governors’ Elections in 2016


States With Governors’ Elections in 2016

State Incumbent Democrats Republicans Primary date

Presidential vote 2012

North Dakota

Jack Dalrymple (R), retiring

• Marvin Nelson • Paul Sorum • Wayne Stenehjem • Doug Burgum

June 14 Romney 58% Obama 39%

Oregon Kate Brown (D), seeking election*

• Brown • Julian Bell

• Bud Pierce • Bob Niemeyer

May 17 Obama 54% Romney 42%

Utah Gary Herbert (R), seeking re-election

• Vaughn R. Cook • Mike Weinholtz

• Herbert • Jonathan Johnson

Aug. 9 Romney 73% Obama 25%

Vermont Peter Shumlin (D), retiring

• Matt Dunne • Sue Minter • H. Brooke Paige

• Bruce Lisman • Phil Scott

Aug. 9 Obama 67% Romney 31%

Washington Jay Inslee (D), seeking re-election

• Inslee • Bill Bryant Aug. 2 Obama 56% Romney 41%

West Virginia Earl Ray Tomblin (D), retiring

• Booth Goodwin • Jim Justice • Jeff Kessler

• Bill Cole May 10 Romney 62% Obama 36%

* Kate Brown became governor in 2015 after John Kitzhaber resigned.

Source: National Governors Association, 2016 Candidates and State Term Limit Information; state election boards


Total Receipts: $69,448,146


Democrat: $42,703,269

Republican: $26,674,287

*California has 53 Congressional Districts


California 2016 U.S. House Races

Total Receipts: $14,156,030


Democrat: $13,055,924

Republican: $1,044,785

*Senator Barbara Boxer (D) is retiring


California 2016 U.S. Senate Race

State Assembly

• Total Receipts: $32,123,847

State Senate

• Total Receipts: $18,444,848

*California has 80 State Assembly Districts

*California has 40 State Senate Districts

California 2016 State Leg. Races

Congressional Dietary Supplement Caucus

Founded in 2006

Provides a forum for the exchange of ideas and information on

dietary supplements, nutrition, sports nutrition, etc.

Bipartisan and Bicameral

• 34 members in House

• 5 members in Senate

Federal Trade Commission (FTC) Overreach

Under the FFDCA, the FTC regulates the advertising of dietary

supplements and foods to determine that they are truthful and not

misleading.

In recent years, FTC has increased action against dietary

supplement companies making claims on product labels, they

continue to overstep its regulatory authority.

• Example: Bayer vs. FTC

NPA welcomes regulatory action from the FTC when appropriate,

within the agency’s boundaries that do not violate DSHEA or

FFDCA.

Dietary Supplement Labeling Act (DSLA)

Senator Richard Durbin (D-IL) has introduced his DSLA legislation

in each of the last two Congresses.

• NPA expects the Senator to re-introduce in the 114th Congress.

In previous iterations, the DSLA has proposed amending the

FFDCA to create additional registration and labeling requirements

for dietary supplements.

NPA will strongly oppose the DSLA when re-introduced in 114th

Congress.

AG tie in? Oregon, NY

However, multiple industry initiatives are moving ahead

• Registration database

• Uniform cGMP audit for retail

• Botanical Raw material cGMPs

GMO Labeling

Ongoing GMO debate has spurned nearly half of U.S. States to introduce GMO food labeling legislation – Vermont being the most prominent.

Sen. Stabenow and Sen. Roberts working on a compromise to beat Vt. implementation

Gen Mills, Campbells, etc.

The House of Representatives passed legislation in 2015 which would establish a national voluntary labeling standard and federal preemption of states.

The Senate is currently considering similar legislation.

NPA’s Four Guiding Principles:

• Voluntary labeling of non-GMO foods;

• Uniform federal standard to avoid separate standards at the

state level;

• Opposing a private enforcement provision; and

• Supporting the FDA consistently reviewing the concept of GMO.

Health Savings Act of 2016

Legislation introduced in the House and Senate as H.R. 4469 and S.

2499 respectively.

Would allow reimbursement for dietary and nutritional supplements

from Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and Flexible Spending

Accounts (FSAs), up to a cap of $1,000 per year.

NPA strongly supports this legislation and urges the House and

Senate to quickly pass it.

Ask your Member of Congress to co-sponsor this legislation!

• Current Cosponsors in House: Kelly, Jenkins, Costello, Kline, Comstock, Chaffetz and Gibbs

• Current Cosponsors in Senate: Rubio, Barrasso, Johnson, Kirk, and Portman

Sen. McCaskill (D-MO) lots of inquiries on FDA and now DoJ

Picamilon

Vinpocetine

No hearing yet

FDA cGMP stats - flat

Select Sen. Aging Comm.

Beat Blumenthal in Committee

New faces: Manchin, Lee, Cotton

NDAA

Dietary Supplement Labeling Act (DSLA)

Senator Richard Durbin (D-IL) has introduced his DSLA legislation

in each of the last two Congresses.

• NPA expects the Senator to re-introduce in the 114th Congress.

In previous iterations, the DSLA has proposed amending the

FFDCA to create additional registration and labeling requirements

for dietary supplements.

NPA will strongly oppose the DSLA when re-introduced in 114th

Congress.

AG tie in? Oregon, NY

However, multiple industry initiatives are moving ahead

• Registration database

• Uniform cGMP audit for retail

• Botanical Raw material cGMPs

Nutrition Facts

Med Foods Guidance

Other “fun” from DC and your governments

Unified Agenda from HHS

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaMain?operation=OPE

RATION_GET_AGENCY_RULE_LIST&currentPub=true&agen

cyCode=&showStage=active&agencyCd=0900

NDI Redraft between now and the lame duck • Legislate by fiat

Other “fun” from DC and your governments

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaMain?operation=OPERATION_GET_AGENCY_RULE_LIST&currentPub=true&agencyCode=&showStage=active&agencyCd=0900




Thanks to Mike Kelley, Matt Keelen, Dr. Corey Hilmas

www.npainfo.org

[email protected]

New Office: • 440 1st Street, NW

Washington, DC

(202)-223-0101

Questions

http://www.npainfo.org/

mailto:[email protected]

Pantsuits and Combovers: Challenges and Opportunities for .... FABRICANT.pdf · Daniel Fabricant,...

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