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Fusion RAMI Evolution, part 1 of 2:A Low TRL RAMI Process for Fusion Energy Research and Development

ARIES 2011 Quarter #2 Review27-28 July, 2011; Gaithersburg, Maryland

Tom Weaver

Counter CBRNE DEW

Platform Systems Technology

Boeing Research and Technology

I-Li Lu, Ph.D.

Applied Statistics

Platform Performance Technology

Boeing Research and Technology

of 18ARIES Quarterly ReviewGaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011

Fusion RAMI Strategy

Tailor aerospace/nuclear industrial RM&SH process to fusion

• I-Li Lu:Applied Mathematics and StatisticsKnowledge CaptureBoeing Research and Technology

• James Robinson:Reliability, Maintainability, and TestabilityBoeing Commercial Aircraft

Enlisted aid of relevant support groups


Presentation Agenda

• Two parts– 1) Administration, Background, and Theory

– 2) Fusion application of the process• Key Concepts

– RAMI model→test→model cycle shown effective in aerospace

– Develop a fusion plant RAMI estimating tool including available data and physics models for missing data

– Use tool results to advise experiment plans to increase benefits and reduce risks

– Repeat cycle with more detailed tool and more informative tests


Part 1

Administration and Process Background and Theory


June – Sept 2011 Activity

RAMI Process

DefineRAMI

Program Collect &Provide

ExperienceData

ProvideRAMIin the

Product

AssessRAMI

InDesign

AndProduction

ResponsibleEntity

Customer and Regulator

Program Manager

Prime Contractor Standards

RAMIEngineering

Logistics

Design Engineering

Systems and Safety

Engineering

Suppliers

Output

Requirements and Data

RAMI “Design”

Incorporation of RAMI in

Design

Candidate Logistics Support Analyses

InputProvided

RAMI Data

Requirements

Design Data

HW & SW Rqmts

CAE/CAD/CAM Systems

Data, Methods, Tools, Expertise, Processes

“Command Media”

SoW and Spec Rqmts

Requirements

SoW and Spec Rqmts


Oct – Dec 2011 Activity

RAMI Process

DefineRAMI

Program Collect &Provide

ExperienceData

ProvideRAMIin the

Product

AssessRAMI

InDesign

AndProduction

ResponsibleEntity

Customer and Regulator

Program Manager

Prime Contractor Standards

RAMIEngineering

Logistics

Design Engineering

Systems and Safety

Engineering

Suppliers

Output

Requirements and Data

RAMI “Design”

Incorporation of RAMI in

Design

Candidate Logistics Support Analyses

InputProvided

RAMI Data

Requirements

Design Data

HW & SW Rqmts

CAE/CAD/CAM Systems

Data, Methods, Tools, Expertise, Processes

“Command Media”

SoW and Spec Rqmts

Requirements

SoW and Spec Rqmts


Critical Fusion R&D Issue

• Chicken-and-Egg Problem– Need more data

– Need facilities to get data

– Need to know what to build with scarce funds

– Need more data

• ICF found a defense escape route

• Industrial RAMI may show way out for MCF– Data Mining

– Engineering-guided Experiment Planning with RAMI as prototype


Critical Fusion RAMI Issue

• Not unique in attempting RAMI estimation and

enhancement across a major technological leap;

however,

• The gap the technological leap fusion is to cross

is unusually large.

• Aerospace and military engineering addressing

the issue


Introduction to RCM

Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM)

Goal of RCM• Avoid or reduce failure CONSEQUENCES• Not necessarily avoid failures (failure prevention

remains an important part of the process, it is just recognized as never 100% possible)

Failure Consequences are the effects of failure on:• Personal and Equipment Safety• Environmental Health/Compliance• Operations• Economics

An analytical process used to determine appropriate failure management strategies to ensure safe and cost-effective operations of a physical asset in a

specific operating environment.


RCM Definition

• SAE JA1011 “Evaluation Criteria for RCM Processes” defines seven questions for RCM:

• What are the functions…of the asset…(functions)?

• In what ways can it fail…(functional failures)?

• What causes each functional failure (failure modes)?

• What happens when each failure occurs (failure

effects)?

• In what way does each failure matter

(failure consequences)?

• What should be done…(proactive tasks and

intervals)?

• What should be done if a suitable proactive task

cannot be found?


RCM History

• Early PM Programs based on concept that periodic

overhauls ensured reliability and, therefore, safety

Overhaul: Tearing down and rebuilding components

• By the 1960s:

• Introduction of 747, DC-10, L-1011 led airlines to

conclusion that current preventive maintenance

philosophies were unsustainable

• FAA and Commercial Aviation Industry formed a group

to study preventive maintenance

• FAA/Airline Group conclusion: overhauls had little or

no effect on overall reliability or safety in many cases

• Why?


Assumptions Needed Challenging

What the airlines and manufacturers discovered.

Statistical analysis showed, in most cases, no change in safety or reliability when overhaul limits changed.

Initial overhaul limits were not analytically based.

High repair costs for little or no benefits.

Con

dit

ion

al P

rob

ab

ilit

yof

Failu

re

Time

Overhaul interval

Facts about overhauls Many failure modes do not

support overhaul philosophy- have no ‘right’ overhaul time.

Lose considerable component life.

Overhauls re-introduce infant mortality failures.

Led to the creation of the “Maintenance Steering Group”Led to the creation of the “Maintenance Steering Group”


Found 6 Patterns of Failure

Modes of part failures must be characterized

“Bathtub” curveInfant Mortality Wear out zone

Wear out zone

Continuous degradation, but no defined wear out zone or age

Continuous degradation

Low chance of early failure to a constant probability of failure

Constant probability of failure (random failure)

High Infant Mortality dropping to constant or slowly increasing probability of failure

Fraction of parts in Civil Aircraft

4%

2%

5%

7%

14%

68%

Clearly defined wear out zone

Opportunity for Condition Based Maintenance

Condition monitoring is only effective on a small fraction of parts

Condition-Based Maintenance becomes an element of the new approachCondition-Based Maintenance becomes an element of the new approach


Maintenance Generations

1960s maintenance mostly still used a first generation “fix it when it breaks” philosophy

Philosophy needed changing in order to achieve greater expectations

– Improved availability, reliability, safety, cost effectiveness, etc.

This is an excerpt of the first chapter of the book "Reliability-centered Maintenance" by John Moubray.


New Techniques Example

ICBM maintenance was improved by a relook at equipment monitoring, analysis and design


The Solution

Boeing engineers and statisticians have developed a Decision Support System that

is Data-Driven, Knowledge-Guided, and Statistical-Based, with analysis that will

provide Cost and Risk Optimized solutions.

Key Factors:

– The need surfaced in Maintenance Steering Group (MSG) international oversight body.

– All major regulatory agencies and OEMs participate.

– Boeing guided the development of the Issue Paper for Scheduled Maintenance

– FAA has approved the Issue Paper and tool

– Centralized Task Force with multi-disciplinary approach : Subject Matter Experts from

Engineering, Information Technology, Statistics, Operations Research, Data/Text Mining,

and Economics.

Remark: what distinguishes Boeing approach

• Novel measures for degradation using Latent and Evident Lifetimes

• Bottom-Up approach for task and system reliability

• Advanced statistical reliability methods developed by thinking outside the box

• Centralized software development and technology integration


Next Step

Part 2, Fusion Application of the Process

will be after a break

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