Page 1 NGUETSE TEGOUM Pierre NAKELSE Tebila OUEDRAOGO Issaka Combining Qualitative and Quantitative...

NGUETSE TEGOUM PierreNGUETSE TEGOUM PierreNAKELSE Tebila NAKELSE Tebila

OUEDRAOGO IssakaOUEDRAOGO Issaka

Combining Qualitative and Combining Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Quantitative Methods in

Assessing the Impact of Agro-Assessing the Impact of Agro-pastoral Projects on the pastoral Projects on the Productivity of Farmers Productivity of Farmers

Organisations: The Case of Organisations: The Case of Cameroon Cameroon

•IntroductionIntroduction

•MethodologyMethodology

•ResultsResults

•ConclusionConclusion

OutlinOutlinee

• Millennium Development Goals : fight against Millennium Development Goals : fight against extreme poverty and hunger;extreme poverty and hunger;

• Implementation of the Poverty Reduction Implementation of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) adopted in 2003;Strategy Paper (PRSP) adopted in 2003;

• Low economic growth and increase poverty Low economic growth and increase poverty incidence in rural areas (+2.9%) result of "non incidence in rural areas (+2.9%) result of "non success" of the implementation of the PRSP;success" of the implementation of the PRSP;

• New development vision expressed through the New development vision expressed through the Growth and Employment Strategy PaperGrowth and Employment Strategy Paper

• Deployment of many projects and programs in Deployment of many projects and programs in rural areas between 2002 and 2008.rural areas between 2002 and 2008.

Introduction (1/2)Introduction (1/2)

• The support in terms of projects and programs The support in terms of projects and programs (PP) for farmers' organizations (POs) do not (PP) for farmers' organizations (POs) do not seem to have a real impact on people in rural seem to have a real impact on people in rural areas;areas;

• • Yet the development of agro-products is a Yet the development of agro-products is a major objective of the State in the GESP;major objective of the State in the GESP;

• Thus it is important to assess the impact of Thus it is important to assess the impact of projects and programs undertaken by the projects and programs undertaken by the Government Government

•Did the projects and programs significantly Did the projects and programs significantly improved productivity and living conditions of improved productivity and living conditions of farmers' organizations? farmers' organizations?

Introduction (2/2)Introduction (2/2)

Methodology for the analysis of satisfaction (D. Methodology for the analysis of satisfaction (D.

Szabo et al (1968))Szabo et al (1968)) Its implementation was performed by calculating Its implementation was performed by calculating the scores using a Likert scale (1932).the scores using a Likert scale (1932).

Disadvantage:Disadvantage: Subjective: do not allow an objective Subjective: do not allow an objective assessment of the impact of PP due subjective assessment of the impact of PP due subjective response.response.

Advantage:Advantage: For taking into account the views of For taking into account the views of beneficiaries and an explanation of the results of beneficiaries and an explanation of the results of projects and programs.projects and programs.

Methodology Methodology (1/5)(1/5)A mixed methodology (qualitative and A mixed methodology (qualitative and

quantitative) is implemented.quantitative) is implemented.

Evaluation by ordinary least squares (OLS)Evaluation by ordinary least squares (OLS)Advantage: Easy to implementAdvantage: Easy to implementDisadvantage : Endogeneity of the variable profit Disadvantage : Endogeneity of the variable profit which leads to underestimation and non-which leads to underestimation and non-convergence of the estimators.convergence of the estimators.

• Causal model of Rubin (1977)Causal model of Rubin (1977)Two techniques used are used:Two techniques used are used:- One to one matching with replacement (easier but - One to one matching with replacement (easier but asymptotic properties of the causal effect in the asymptotic properties of the causal effect in the treated group is unknown)treated group is unknown)- Epanechnikov Kernel matching (asymptotic - Epanechnikov Kernel matching (asymptotic properties established by Heckman et al. (1998))properties established by Heckman et al. (1998))

Methodology (2/5)Methodology (2/5)Quantitative methods of impact assessment (1/2)Quantitative methods of impact assessment (1/2)

AdvantageAdvantage DesadvantageDesadvantage

•Lower costs, Lower costs, •More results, More results, •Generalizable results Generalizable results • Control selection • Control selection problems related to problems related to observable observable characteristics;characteristics;• Intuition is very • Intuition is very similar to that of the similar to that of the controlled experiment controlled experiment which is ideal for which is ideal for measuring impact;measuring impact;

• • Complexity of resultsComplexity of results• Selection bias due to • Selection bias due to unobservable unobservable characteristicscharacteristics• Substitution Bias• Substitution Bias

Quantitative methods of impact assessment (2/2)Quantitative methods of impact assessment (2/2)

Methodology (3/5)Methodology (3/5)

Methodology(4/5)Methodology(4/5)

The data used are those of the EIPA survey The data used are those of the EIPA survey

(2009) (2009) conducted by Cameroonian Ministry of conducted by Cameroonian Ministry of

Economy and Planning in 2009 Economy and Planning in 2009

- It's a quota survey that covered the entire - It's a quota survey that covered the entire

country and involved 1350 FOs.country and involved 1350 FOs.

- Two units of observation were used: the - Two units of observation were used: the

members and the FOs for which the information members and the FOs for which the information

was collected from the leaders.was collected from the leaders.

Data Data (1/2)(1/2)

The questionnaire leader:The questionnaire leader:

- A section on general information about the FOs - A section on general information about the FOs

(age, rate of women, ...)(age, rate of women, ...)

- A section for the spending of the FOs- A section for the spending of the FOs

- A section on perceptions of the FOs in relation to - A section on perceptions of the FOs in relation to

the impact of state grantthe impact of state grant

Data processing:Data processing:

• • Variables having non-response rate higher than Variables having non-response rate higher than

30%were dropped. 30%were dropped.

• • Hotdeck Random method was used to treat Hotdeck Random method was used to treat

missing values missing values

Methodology (5/5)Methodology (5/5) Data Data (2/2)(2/2)

Results (1/2)BeneficiaryBeneficiary satisfaction satisfaction

Satisfaction of the leaders by region and poverty Satisfaction of the leaders by region and poverty incidenceincidence

Results (2/2)Results of the matching and Results of the matching and OLSOLS Returns to government grants/subsidies (in %)

Breeding Agricultu

re

Together

Difference of productivity before

matching

25.9 1.4 10.6

Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) 16.1** -1.9 4.0

One to one

matching

Effect on the treated

(ATT)

20.9** 0.4** 3.4

Effect on the non-

treated (ATNT)

7.4*** 11.1** 6.6

Kernel

Epanechnikov

Effect on the treated

(ATT)

18.9*** -4.4* -0.2

Effect on the non-

treated (ATNT)

21.9*** 2.1** 12.1

Poverty gap in 2007 is estimated at 70 000 FCFA Poverty gap in 2007 is estimated at 70 000 FCFA at the national level (ECAM 3 Report)at the national level (ECAM 3 Report)

Qualitative method:Qualitative method:

Satisfaction Analysis: Satisfaction Analysis: Leaders and members of Leaders and members of farmers’ organizations consider themselves farmers’ organizations consider themselves satisfied with the support of the State and its satisfied with the support of the State and its partners.partners.

Quantitative methods:Quantitative methods:

OLS: OLS: Overall OLS show a positive impact of projects Overall OLS show a positive impact of projects and programs. However for the case of agriculture and programs. However for the case of agriculture the impact is negative.the impact is negative.

Matching: Matching: Overall matching highlights the positive Overall matching highlights the positive impact of support on the productivity of FOs.impact of support on the productivity of FOs.Specifically the impact of support was more Specifically the impact of support was more important and statistically significant in the important and statistically significant in the livestock sector than in agriculture.livestock sector than in agriculture.

Conclusion (1/3)Conclusion (1/3)

Policy recommendations:Policy recommendations:1 1 – Updating the existing file of FOs with contact – Updating the existing file of FOs with contact

information, this would combat the existence of information, this would combat the existence of

fictitious FOs (indeed, it was realized that some fictitious FOs (indeed, it was realized that some

beneficiary FOs have ever existed on field). beneficiary FOs have ever existed on field).

2. Encouraging rural people to form themselves 2. Encouraging rural people to form themselves

into organizations to be more efficient and into organizations to be more efficient and

easier to solicit assistance; easier to solicit assistance;


Policy recommendations:Policy recommendations:3 - making the process for awarding grants more 3 - making the process for awarding grants more

transparent, as people pointed out that the grants transparent, as people pointed out that the grants

are often awarded based on criteria such as the are often awarded based on criteria such as the

segregationist, political affiliation, ethnicity or segregationist, political affiliation, ethnicity or

"networks";"networks";

4- Increasing the budget devoted to the 4- Increasing the budget devoted to the

development of rural areas;development of rural areas;

5- Establishing a permanent monitoring and 5- Establishing a permanent monitoring and

impact evaluation of agro-pastoral projects.impact evaluation of agro-pastoral projects.


Thank You!

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