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![Page 1: Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008 Review of Ozone Performance in WRAP Modeling and Relevance to Future Regional Ozone Planning Gail Tonnesen, Zion.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ede5503460f94bee913/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Review of Ozone Performance in WRAP Modeling and Relevance to Future Regional
Ozone Planning
Gail Tonnesen, Zion Wang, Mohammad Omary, Chao-Jung ChienUniversity of California, Riverside
Zac AdelmanUniversity of North Carolina
Ralph Morris et al.ENVIRON Corporation Int., Novato, CA
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Ozone Planning Needs
• New 75 ppb eight-hr average NAAQS for ozone will result in increased number of ozone non-attainment areas and the need for new ozone SIPs.
• New ozone non-attainment areas will be located in western states including rural and remote regions.
• To what extent can previous WRAP visibility modeling be used to assist in ozone planning?
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
White Paper on WRAP Ozone Modeling
• Review ozone performance in WRAP regional scale visibility modeling.
• Assess suitability of 2002 Base Case and 2018 WRAP model results for use as boundary conditions for future high resolution ozone model simulations.
• Recommend updates and boundary condition values to be used in future ozone modeling studies.
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Modeling Needs for Ozone
• Must use photochemical air quality models (CMAQ, CAMx) for ozone SIPs to address several issues:– Need to address both 1-hr and 8-hr average.– Control strategies might differ in urban versus rural
areas.– Contributors to ozone include:
• International transport.
• Regional transport.
• local photochemical production: natural & anthropogenic
• Stratospheric intrusion.
![Page 5: Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008 Review of Ozone Performance in WRAP Modeling and Relevance to Future Regional Ozone Planning Gail Tonnesen, Zion.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062517/56649ede5503460f94bee913/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Previous WRAP Ozone Modeling
• All WRAP CMAQ and CAMx visibility modeling included modeling of ozone:
– Ozone and other oxidants effect the formation of secondary PM2.5 species sulfate, nitrate and OC. Gas phase NO2 affects visibility directly.
– Limited evaluation of ozone performance because regional ozone levels have small uncertainty compared to other input data.
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
WRAP Visibility Modeling Cases• 2002 Base version B used for the model performance
evaluation (MPE):– Full year for 36 km model.
– Selected months for 12km for 2002 Base version A.
• Planning Cases include:– 2002 planning case using typical baseline period emissions
(Plan02d).
– 2018 base case that includes “on the books” emissions reductions (Base18b).
– Preliminary Reasonable Progress (PRP18a).
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Modeling Domain
WRAP 36-km CMAQ/CAMx Domain within MM5 36-km domain
WRAP CMAQ domain:red: 36-km blue: 12-km
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Review of Previous Ozone MPE
• AQS gas phase data includes ozone data at 249 sites in the western US in 2002.
• Most of the sites in the AQS are for urban influenced sites.
• Some urban sites also include NO2, CO, HC, SO2. • We do not expect the 36 km model to perform
well for urban areas because of grid resolution.• Limited gas phase data available at rural and
remote sites – need more rural gas species monitoring.
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Model Performance Approach• Time-series plots of model and observed data.• Spatial plots of model and data.• Mean error and bias performance metrics.
MPE Results available at:
www.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml #base02aV4512kvs36k#base02bvsbase02a36k
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
2002 Model Annual Average Ozone
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Daily comparisons at 4 pm PDT: June 9, 2002
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Annual O3 Time-series: Grand Canyon NP
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Annual O3 Time-series: Yosemite NP
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Annual O3 Time-series: Joshua Tree
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Annual O3 Time-series: Rocky Mountain NP
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Annual O3 Time-series: Glacier NP
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Annual O3 Time-series: Yellowstone NP
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Tabulated Fractional Bias and Error(using 60 ppb filter for observed data)
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Tabulated Fractional Bias and Error(using 60 ppb filter for observed data)
AQSO3
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Fra
cti
on
al
Gro
ss
Err
or
12km
36km
12km -37.7 -19.5 -12.1 -23.2 -36.5
36km -38.1 -16.4 -7.5 -17.5 -30.9
January February June July November
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Ozone 36km vs. 12km: Joshua Tree
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Ozone 36km vs. 12km: Yosemite NP
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Ozone 36km vs. 12km: Yellowstone NP
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Summary for Ozone MPE
• Limited monitoring data available for rural and remote sites.
• 12km model was not superior to 36km model.
• CMAQ performed well for ozone for remote sites (although data for MPE was very limited).
• Tabulated metrics shown above are not appropriate for rural ozone MPE because of 60 ppb filter and the predominance of urban sites.
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Future Needs for Ozone MPE
• Need to identify rural and upwind urban sites in AQS database for more complete MPE, and need to add new monitoring sites.
• Explore use of satellite data for ozone, NO2 and other gas species.
• Need aloft measurements and ocean aloft measurements to better characterize transport.
• Develop new metrics for MPE that do not employ the 60 ppb ozone filter.
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Projected Ozone for 2018
• Compare Base 2018 Base Case and 2018 Preliminary Reasonable Progress Case to the 2002 Planning Case for benefits on ozone reduction.
• Results available on RMC webpage:
www.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml
#base18bvsplan02b
#prp18avsplan02d• Results include daily average, monthly average and
annual average spatial difference plots.
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Projected June average ozone change for 2018 base case
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Projected June average ozone change for 2018 PRP case
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Projected 4st Max 8-hr average ozone for 2018 PRP case
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Projected 1st Max 8-hr average ozone for 2018 PRP case
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Summary of 2018 Ozone Predictions
• Reductions in monthly average ozone of 1 to 10 ppb during summer in 2018 Base Case.
• Slightly larger reductions in 2018 PRP case.• PRP18a case predicts exceedence of the 8-hr
average ozone standard in much of the southwestern US, mostly in spring.
• Likely that there is large contribution from tranported ozone.
• Need to re-evaluate GEOSCHEM ozone BC.
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Uncertainties in Input Data• Emissions data – largest uncertainty, ranges from 30% to a
factor of 3 depending on source category. WRAP made significant improvements in emissions, largest uncertainties remain in biogenic VOC, and NH3.
• Meteorology, vertical mixing and PBL height – can have large effect on model performance, especially for urban areas. Need to compare MM5 and WRF.
• Boundary conditions – we have pretty good BC estimates from GEOSCHEM. Larger uncertainty in ozone at model top and in the future BC and transport.
• Uncertainty related to future climate – probable increases in biogenic VOC and in reactivity.
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Uncertainties in Model Science• Photochemical mechanisms – gas phase ozone chemistry
is best for rural low NOx conditions. Mechanisms underestimate reactivity for urban high NOx conditions.
• Heterogeneous and aqueous chemistry – potentially largest uncertainty affecting regional ozone formation. Large uncertainty in NOx budget and fate of NOx (N2O5 hydrolysis, renoxification, HOx radical budgets).
• Grid resolution effects – artificial dispersion might over estimate ozone formation in areas with large emissions. Also makes MPE more difficult. Nested grids in CAMx can better handle urban ozone budgets.
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Applications of WRAP data
• Existing planning cases and 2002 base case are useful for evaluating ozone in rural & remote areas.
• Sensitivity studies can be performed to estimate effects of boundary conditions and sensitivity to emissions controls, either across the board emissions reductions or by source category.
• Data can be extracted from 2002 base case to create BC for new, high resolution 4-km ozone modeling.
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Ozone Sensitivity to VOC and NOx• Ozone can be reduced by controlling both VOC and NOx.
• Urban ozone in the west is more sensitive to VOC control, while NOx controls can have both benefits and transient dis-benefits for urban ozone. (There is no NOx dis-benefit for urban ozone if NOx reductions are sufficiently large.)
• Rural ozone is more sensitive to NOx controls.
• Ozone sensitivity to VOC and NOx reductions can be estimated directly using ambient indicator ratios (although data is limited) and using model sensitivity simulations.
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Ozone Production Efficiency per NOx• Ozone produced per molecule of NOx emissions varies
considerably – less efficient ozone production at low VOC/NOx ratios and at higher VOC and NOx concentrations because NOx is more rapidly converted to inert HNO3:– Power plant plumes: 1-3 molecules O3 per NOx
– Urban conditions: 4-10 molecules O3 per NOx
– Rural conditions: 10-100 molecules O3 per NOx
• Much greater benefit of controlling mobile and areas sources of NOx in rural areas for an equivalent mass reduction.
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Ozone MPE, TAF Meeting, July 30, 2008
Recommended Model Updates
• New emissions data should be included in future CMAQ or CAMx runs: MEGAN biogenic model; new oil & gas inventory; lightning NOx emissions.
• Should use updated model versions and updated chemistry, new CB-05 or new SAPRC07, if available.
• Updated global simulations for present and future BC.• Need to save 3-d concentration files in all future runs.• Long-term needs:
– More ambient monitoring of gas species.
– Advances in science of NOx budget and fate.