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Overview of Drought Preparedness and Coping Strategies

Robert StefanskiAgricultural Meteorology Division

Climate Prediction and Adaptation BranchClimate and Water Department

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• Drought Overview

• Coping Strategies (Water Management)

• Drought Risk Assessment

• Conclusions and Challenges

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Natural and Social Dimensions of Drought

Meteorological

Agricultural Hydrological

Socio-economic

Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies)

Increasing complexity of impacts and conflicts

Time/Duration of the event

Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management

Source: Wilhite 2006

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The Cycle of Disaster Management

Source: Wilhite 2006

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WMO OMMWhy the concern?

• Drought is a normal part of climate, however• Water supplies are fully or over used• Outdated water policies and institutions• Inability to manage climate variability/extremes• Climate change/global warming . . .

– How will these changes impacts on the frequency, duration, and severity of extreme events?

Source: Wilhite 2006

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(social factors)(natural event)

Exposure (Static or

Dynamic?)

Static or Dynamic?

Components of Drought Risk Management

Source: Wilhite 2006

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Selected factors influencing vulnerability to drought

• Population growth• Population migration• Urbanization• Environmental values/awareness• Land use changes• Environmental degradation/desertification• Technology• Government policies

Source: Wilhite 2006

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Drought Flooding

Pro

babi

lity

P (x

)

X (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.)

Coping range

Drought vulnerability is a variableDrought vulnerability is a variable

Within every society, there is a certain capacity to

cope with drought.

Societal changes can increase or decrease

this coping range.

Source: Wilhite 2006

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WMO OMMRisk management strategies….

• Avoid dangers• Prevent/reduce the frequency of impacts• Control/reduce consequences (adaptation

measures)• Transfer the risk (e.g. insurance)• Respond appropriately to incidents/accidents (e.g.

disaster management)• Recover or rehabilitate asap (e.g. media response)

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Integrate conservation and production technologies with watershed as a unit of management

Ensure maximum in situ rainwater conservation

Harvest rainwater for recycling -to high value crops -to support establishment of tree crops

Recharging groundwater

Rainwater Management

Source: Rama Krishna et al 2006

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Conservation furrow -retains about 37% additional soil moisture compared to farmers’ practice-better plant growth and higher yields by about 17%

GroundnutCastor + Pigeonpea

In-Situ Conservation Practices

Source: Rama Krishna et al 2006

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Micro-catchments- improves perennial plant establishment even on steep slopes

In-Situ Conservation Practices

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Trench bund for soil and water conservation

In-situ soil and water conservation

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Stone and vegetative field bunding- field bunds are time tested means of soil and water conservation

Indigenous Knowledge

Source: Rama Krishna et al 2006

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Contour trenching for runoff collectionWater Harvesting

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On Farm Reservoir (OFR) technology in Chattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand created major impact on drought management during kharif

The Government of Chhattisgarh included this technology in the drought relief programme

Water Harvesting

Source: Rama Krishna et al 2006

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Rs. 200/Cum Source: Rama Krishna et al 2006

Water Harvesting

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A percolation tank - Enhances yield of down-stream wells

Groundwater recharge structures

Source: Rama Krishna et al 2006

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Tobacco Irrigation through harvested rainwater

• Crop yield improved by 25% through one irrigation during dryspell• Payback 4-5 years without lining

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Rainwater stored in farm pond can be judiciously utilized using sprinkler

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Sweet oranges + groundnut in rabi in Anantapur district, AP

Banana in Cuddapah district, AP

Micro Irrigation techniques for improved water use efficiency

Source: Rama Krishna et al 2006

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Intercrops along with casuarina

Intercrops along with Eucalyptus

Intercrops along with Subabul

Agri-silviculture

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Preparedness and Coping Strategies

…through drought risk assessment.

How do we determine where and when to these strategies …..

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Moving toward state-level trend analysis capabilities (left) and providing more county-level drought assessment information (right).

Source: Wilhite 2006

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Source: Stone & Meinke 2006

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After: Stone and Meinke 2006

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www.dmcsee.org

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WMO OMMDMCSEE Project components

1. To assess the data available for effective drought monitoring and early warning system.

2. To evaluate and select the most effective and reliable indices and indicators for drought assessment.

3. To conduct a drought risk assessment.4. To identify the specific training needs.5. To develop and implement a data and information delivery system on

drought management.6. To develop a comprehensive network of experts and institutions to

assist the DMCSEE.7. To ensure communication and user feedback.8. To establish the permanent DMCSEE and ensure its sustainable

functioning and operations.

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WMO OMMDrought Monitoring by DMCSEE

• Using GPCC data, some preliminary maps of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Percentiles and Precipitation for the region were prepared.

• Maps are updated twice per month. Final data maps with two months delay are available after 20th day of the current month. First-guess maps are available after 5th day of the next month.

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Keys to effective drought risk management and mitigation• Developing end-to-end-to-end information

delivery systems– Involve stakeholders early in the

process– Feedback from users

• Determine critical decision points—timing is everything!

• Effective delivery of information (timely, properly formatted, appropriate resolution)

• Interactive, tailored to fit user needs• Integrates data from multiple sources• Increased emphasis on decision-support

tools

Source: Wilhite 2006

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Summary of WMO Risk Workshop

International Workshop on Agricultural Risk Management:Opportunities and Challenges NewDelhi, India October 2006(188 participants from 78 countries)

In Conjuction with 14th Session of the WMO Commission for AgriculturalMeteorology (CAgM)

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• Rural areas need to gain access to support mechanisms in terms of technical expertise or technological innovations (credit or crop insurance)

• Agrometeorological services and support systems for agrometeorologicalservices should be strengthened for effective management of drought risks.

• Drought contingency plans should be translated into an effective policy covering the range of activities required to address short and long-term consequences. Effective and interactive management systems need to be set in place.

• Drought contingency planning, drought preparedness, and drought impact assistance policies need to be considered under long-term climate change.

Conclusions

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• Public-private partnership models need to be further explored in order to ‘mainstream’ drought risk management. Involving the development of risk management tools and approaches within the context of overall rural livelihood strategies, integrating risk arising from markets and threats to the natural resource base. Also involves communicating risk management knowledge through existing communication networks of farmers, rather than pursuing specific communication programs.

• Promote concept of a drought mitigation and monitoring center, coordinated by both meteorological and agricultural agencies at national and state levels, to define standards and policy for monitoring and mitigation of drought

• Combination of locally adapted traditional farming technologies, seasonal weather forecasts and warning/forecast methods may help farmers improve productivity and incomes

Conclusions 2

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• Scientific desertification monitoring and evaluation system involving agriculture, forestry, water conservation, environmental protection, meteorological and natural resource conservation should be established.

• Measures to combat desertification must be vigorously pursued. These include: shelterbelts, windbreaks, converting cropland to forests, grazing prohibition, grassland construction, water-saving irrigation project, and integrated ecological agro-forest measures or integrated ecological agro-economic measures.

Conclusions 3

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• A key challenge is in the combination of the coping strategies and in facing a combination of challenges to each of them.

• Impact of climate variability and change on extreme events

• The strategy of erring on the safe side through over-irrigation, over-protection and over fertilization of crops has been counter productive

• Development of well differentiated and sufficiently scaled up operational agromet services supporting preparedness strategies.

Challenges to Coping Strategies

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• Lack of effective communication services in the timely delivery of weather and climate information to enable effective decision making

• Lack of systematic and standardized data collection on drought events. There is no recognized and acceptable international systemfor disaster-data (drought) gathering, verification and storage.

• Weak linkages between farmers and agricultural extension services

• Lack of an enabling environment for effective and efficient insurance markets in developing countries

Challenges to Coping Strategies (contd.)

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