Explanatory Variables for Violent Rebellion in Chattisgarh

8/10/2019 Explanatory Variables for Violent Rebellion in Chattisgarh

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Explanatory Variables for Violent Rebellion in

ChhattisgarhJessica Ward

Political Science 243e

Rachel BruleMarch 20, 2013

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Explanatory Variables for Violent Rebellion in Chhattisgarh

Introduction

Poverty is frequently hihlihted as a cause of !any of rural "ndia#s econo!ic, social, and

$olitical $ro%le!s& Wides$read $overty can %e a $o'erful hinderance to any (ind of $ositive action or

refor!& )o'ever, the e*istence of 'or(ers# !ove!ents and $easants# !ove!ents led %y the !ost

i!$overished 'ith the oals of i!$rovin their lives 'ould suest that $overty can also %e a $o'erful

!otivator for collective action& So!e of these !ove!ents turn to violence to acco!$lish their ends&

+heorists such as urr -1./0 arue that econo!ic inequality is a leadin root e*$lanation for 'hy

violent !ove!ents occur& +illy -1./ arues that it is lac( of $olitical o$$ortunities and resources, not

econo!ic ones, that e*$lain violent re%ellion& n additional e*$lanation is that 'hen !inority rou$s

feel threatened, they 'ill re%el& si!$ler e*$lanation is that violence is !ore li(ely to occur in ty$es of

eora$hy in 'hich it is easier to !aintain a violent re%ellion, such as !ountainous or forested areas

-earon and aitin 2003&

+he "ndian state of 5hhattisarh serves as an e*cellent natural e*$eri!ent to test these theories&

$$ro*i!ately half of the districts of 5hhattisarh are a!onst the districts !ost effected %y the

continuin violent Maoist re%ellion in "ndia#s 6red %elt&7 " 'ill test three of these theories8 econo!ic

inequality, $resence of #at ris(# rou$s, and eora$hy& 9cono!ic data on 5hhattisarh in li!ited due to

continual shiftin of district %oundaries, %ut usin 2001 census data and the 200/ :istrict evel )ealth

and acility Survey -:)S, it is $ossi%le to %uild a %asic co!$arative $icture of the econo!ic status

of the districts 'ithin the state& +his $icture sho's 'ea( su$$ort for the theory that econo!ic

inequality is reater in the !ore violent districts as a 'hole& dditional su$$ort for this aru!ent

co!es fro! the cited rievances of the Maoists, 'hich are $ri!arily econo!ic related& ;sin the sa!e

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2001 census data and re$orts fro! those in the field, evidence has %een found to sho' that it is !ostly

tri%al $eo$le 'ho ta(e $art in the re%ellion& dditionally, !a$s of terrain and the rural8ur%an

distri%ution at the district level sho' su$$ort for the eora$hy theory& "t is i!$ortant to note that in

5hhattisarh, it is $ossi%le that all three of the theories could %e true8 tri%al $o$ulations tend to live in

forested areas, 'hich also tend to %e the !ost underdevelo$ed& "n !y analysis no sinle theory has

stood out to %e the !ost co!$ellin e*$lanation of violent re%ellion, %ut the #at ris(# rou$s and

eora$hy theories are su$$orted %y clearer evidence than the econo!ic inequality aru!ent &

+he Maoist !ove!ent has a lon history in $ost8

inde$endence "ndia& / fro! a !o%ili?ation

of the rural $oor %y @risha( Sa!aiti -Peasants#

Arani?ation led %y @anu Sanyal& +his ideoloy 'as ta(en

u$ %y Siliuri @ishan Sa%ha led %y Janal Santhal, 'ho 'ith

a rou$ of Santhal tri%als, (illed a $olice ins$ector and

%ean a violent ca!$ain aainst landlords in the area& +he

=a*al%ari de!onstrations 'ere held in the conte*t of land

scarcity and o$$ression a!onst the $easant castes -uha 423& +he co!!unist !ove!ent %eca!e a

$ro!inent !ove!ent 'ithin 6red %elt7 of central and eastern "ndia, 'ith its focus on 6free access to

forest $roduce, %etter 'aes for la%orer, and the redistri%ution of land7 a$$ealin to the $easantry

'hich !ade u$ !ost of the $o$ulation -uha 424&

+he co!!unist !ove!ent soon s$lit %et'een $eaceful co!!unist !ove!ent, 'hich

over'hel!inly choose to o$erate 'ithin the structure of the state, and the violent co!!unist

!ove!ent, 'hich sa' the state as illeiti!ate and choose to re%el aainst it& +he 5o!!unist Party of

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"ndia has had a record of electoral success in the states of West Benal and @erala& +he violent 'in is

led %y the 5o!!unist Party of "ndia -Maoist, a desinated terrorist orani?ation& +he violent

!ove!ent s$read fro! its oriins in West Beal to %eco!e centered in ndhra Pradesh& +he 2004

!erer of the Peo$le#s War rou$ -PW and the Maoist 5o!!unist 5entre -M55 into the ne'

5o!!unist Party of "ndia8Maoist -5P"8M shifted a strateic shift for the Maoist ca!$ain& +his ne'

ca!$ain had the oal of s$readin the co!!unist !ove!ent, %ut %ac(fired, causin leaders to !ove

6into forest areas to (ee$ off the $olice radar7 -Pradhan 2013& dditionally, in 2012, t'o leaders of the

!ove!ent, Sadanala Ra!a(rishna and Mohan


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5hhattisharh is a re$resentative of the ty$es of $laces 'here the =a*alite re%els have found a stron

%ase& "n addition to the central overn!ent counterinsurency actions, the state overn!ent of

5hhattisarh has stronly o$$osed the violent !ove!ent& tte!$ts to cur% =a*alite violence in

5hhattisarh %y the state overn!ent $redo!inantly follo' the 6ndhra Pradesh !odel7 that 'as used

to drive the re%els out of ndhra Pradesh& +his !odel include re!a(in of the $olice and intellience

syste!s, 'ith an e!$hasis on trainin $olice in unle environ!ent uerilla 'ar tactics -Pradhan

2013& 9fforts uniquely underta(en %y the 5hhattishari state overn!ent 'hich have $roved

controversial include involvin civilians directly in counter8insurency actions and even 6recruitin

children as S$ecial Police Afficers7 -Rah!an 111& +hese child S$ecial Police Afficers, often very

youn children, 'ho live in Maoist villaes, are used %y the $olice to infor! u$on their villaes an

even fa!iliesE this has at ti!es caused rave social consequences -Roy 2010& "n co!%ination 'ith the

central overn!ent efforts, these efforts have !ade ains at identifyin re%el stronholds and

$reventin the s$read of the violence, %ut have not %een successful at re!ovin the Maoists fro! their

stronholds&

+he state of 5hhattisarh is a rural and heavily forested& "t is a landloc(ed, %orderin

Maharashtra, ndhra Pradesh, Arissa, Jhar(hand, ;ttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh& +he state 'as

created in the year 2000, se$aratin fro! Madhya Pradesh in order to ive a state to the tri%al $eo$le of

the reion& +his creation of the ne' state 'as an, 6unco!$licated %irth,7 %einnin in the late 1..0s,

'ith a !ostly a$olitical 6inde$endent rou$ of intellectuals 'ho !et frequently in Rai$ur to e*chane

ideas on the conce$t and contours of the ne' State,7-&4F& 40F of the $eo$le in

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5hhattisarh %elon to tri%al $o$ulations and 13F to scheduled castes, co!$ared to F and 1>&2F in

"ndia res$ectively -:)S 44&+he ca$itol of the state is the city of Rai$ur in the Rai$ur district&

5hhattisarhi is a dialect of )indi s$o(en %y 11 !illion $eo$le !ostly 'ithin 5hhattisarh, %ut other

lanuaes, $articularly tri%al lanuaes, are s$o(en throuhout the state&

+ri%al rou$s have a lon history of re%ellion in 5hhattisarh& Bet'een 1//4 and 1.10, ten

tri%al re%ellions occurred in the reion& +hese re%ellions $redo!inantly occurred in the Bashtar reion

of 5hhattisarh, 'hich includes the !odern8day districts of Bastar, =arayan$ur, @an(er, :ante'ada,

and Bia$ur& +hese districts !a(e u$ five of the seven districts !ost effected %y Maoist violence& Many

of these revolts durin the colonial era 'ere caused %y econo!ic inequalities and $roloned fa!ine

-Rah!an 200>& +his includes the Paral(ot re%ellion of 12D aainst e*$loitation %y the British and the

rulin Marathas, and the 14281D4 +ara$ur re%ellion aainst coercive ta*ation and 6the assertion of

the tri%als aainst the invasion of their local culture and the ta!$erin 'ith their traditional $rinci$les

of social, econo!ic and $olitical orani?ation,7 -Rah!an 4& +he continued loss of land rihts and

i!$osition on social and econo!ic nor!s re!ain !aor rievances for the tri%al $o$ulations of

5hhattisarh&

Ane $articular tri%al rou$, the dviasis, have %een heavily involved in the Maoist conflict, at

ti!es aainst their 'ill %ein used as 6$a'ns of %oth $arties of the conflict,7 havin %eco!e tarets

the!selves of the =a*alites -Rah!an 10.& +his rou$ constitutes /&DF of the $o$ulation of the

district of :ante'ada& +hey also constitute the !aority of the =a*alite re%els, %ut are not its leaders

-Rah!an 10& Resent!ent to'ards the =a*alites has ro'n fro! the divasi, $articularly 'ith reard

to a $olicy of forci%ly recruitin one =a*alite cadre fro! each divasi fa!ily& +his forced recruit!ent

$olicy co!$elled !any fa!ilies to ive fe!ale fa!ily !e!%ers to the =a*alites, so!ethin 'hich

violated social ta%oos -Rah!an 10.& +his is consistent 'ith the sy!%iotic relationshi$ found %et'een

households in conflict areas and re%el rou$s, in 'hich households dra' on the re%els for $rotection

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and re%els dra' fro! households to su$$ort the! -Justino 200.&

"n co!$arison to the violence re%ellion, incidents of non8violent collective action are far less

nota%le& non8violent leftist !ove!ent, the 5hhattisarh Mu(ti Morch -5MM is %ased in

5hhattisarh& +he 5MM is concentrated in the ur%an areas of the state, such as the ca$itol in Rai$ur

and the ur%an district of :ur, as 'ell as in the north of the state 'here !inin and industry are %ased&

+his !ove!ent has %een !oderately successful at raisin 'aes for industrial 'or(ers and

encourain the for!ation of la%or unions -Shar!a 2011& nother orani?ation, 5hhattiarh

Mine'or(ers Shra!i( Sanh -5MSS is led %y Shan(ar uha =iyoi& 5MSS see(s to 6%lend the ideas

of andhi and Mar*7 -uha D40& +he !ove!ent 'or(ed 'ith !ine 'or(ers of a chiefly tri%al

%ac(round, ca!$ained for equal $ay for 'o!en, aainst alcohol a%use, for school, and struled to

encourae health and safety, and livin 'ae standards to %e ado$ted %y !ine o'ners -uha D40&

+he 5o!!unist !ove!ent has not %een successful at $artici$ation in leiti!ate $olitical

activities in 5hhattisarh& +he 5o!!unist Party of "ndia has ran candidates in elections in

5hhattisarh, for %oth state and national $ositions, %ut has %een unsuccessful& +he 5hhattisarh state

asse!%ly is do!inated %y the Bharatiya Janata Party -BJP and has sinificant re$resentation fro! the

"ndian =ational 5onress $arty& :es$ite calls for election %oycotts %y the violent Maoists, turnout for

these elections has not %een sinificantly effected -uha /3>& "nstead of $ariti$atin in the "ndia state

structure, the Maoists have esta%lished a 6$arallel overn!ent in the :anda(aranya reion,7 -Rah!an

243& +he :anda(aranya reion is the Maoist stronhold, 'hich includes si* districts fro!

5hhattisharh in the Bastar reion as 'ell as districts in Maharashtra, ndhra Pradesh, and Arissa& +his

Maoist overn!ent includes the runnin of 6$eo$le#s courts7 to settle dis$utes and i!$ose

$unish!ents& "t also includes the esta%lish!ent of shado' overn!ent structures and co!!ittees -Roy

2010&

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Literature review

+here are several school of thouht on 'hy violent re%ellion occurs& +his includes theories

%ased on the idea of lac( of o$$ortunityG one 'hich arues econo!ic inequality as root cause of violent

conflict and another 'hich arues lac( of $olitical o$$ortunities& +here are other theories that arue that

ethnic heteroeneity can %e a cause of violence, es$ecially 'hen one !inority rou$ is threatened %y a

do!inant rou$& nother theory arues that violence is !ore li(ely to occur in eora$hical $laces

'here it is easier to sustain violence&

Ane set of theories is %ased on econo!ic discontent theories 'hich arue that violent $olitical

conflict 'ill occur 'hen econo!ic inequality is hih -urr 1./0& +here are t'o 'ays to conceive 'hat

econo!ic inequality !eans& Ane 'ay is throuh an individual udin his or her econo!ic situation

relative to others in society -Rean and =orton 200D& A$$onents of this definition of econo!ic

inequality as a e*$lanation for violence arue usin a!e theory that the idea that econo!ic inequality

thouht of in this 'ay could cause violent re%ellion is not li(ely unless there is an e*$ected $ayoff fro!

$artici$ation in the !ove!ent -ich%ach 1..0& +he other 'ay of definin econo!ic inequality is as

relative or $erceived de$rivation, 'hich is the a$ %et'een the e*$ectation of 'hat the individual

%elieves they should receive fro! society and the reality of 'hat they receive -Schoc( 1..>& +his

difference in e*$ectation fro! reality can cause an individual or a rou$ to underta(e action 'hich is

%elieved to result in a $ayoff reater than 'hat they are currently receivin&

reed or !aterial self interest is different fro! this conce$t of $erceived de$rivation& #reed#

i!$lies that the individual re%el is !otivated %y self8interested ain rather than de$rivation& )o'ever,

reed %eco!es i!$ortant 'hen analy?in the dyna!ics of re%el orani?ations the!selves& +here are

cases 'here individual reed can %eco!e a tool to !otivate individuals 'ithin the re%el orani?ation or

decrease defection -Rean and =orton 200D& +his !eans that !aterial self8interest is !ore li(ely to %e

a !otivatin tool after the re%ellion has already started, and the rievance of $erceived de$rivation,


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'hich %eco!es ideoloy of econo!ic ustice and equality, is the !otivator at the %einnin of

individual involve!ent 'ith the violent orani?ation&

nother e*$lanation for violent re%ellion is $olitical o$$ortunity& ;nder this theory, it is not lac(

of econo!ic o$$ortunities, %ut $olitical ones that are the !otivatin rievance for collective action&

+he $olitical o$$ortunity theory arues that the availa%ility of $olitical resources and o$$ortunities to

the $o$ulation deter!ine the e*tent of $olitical violence -+illy 1./& Political resources and

o$$ortunities include the availa%ility of $olitical structures throuh 'hich one can $eacefully e*$ress

rievances& +hese could include elections or $etitions& Political resources also include the e*istence of a

fair and useful udicial syste! or dis$ute ar%itration syste!& When these structures do not e*ist, there

are no 'ays for the $o$ulation to $eacefully assert their rihts and there is no foru! for the leiti!ate

e*$ression of rievances& So therefore, if the rievances %eco!e sinificant enouh the $o$ulation 'ill

turn to violence& " 'ill not %e testin this theory in this $a$er %ecause of the assu!$tion that %ecause all

of the districts discussed are 'ithin the sa!e state, and all are rural, the citi?ens of all districts 'ill have

a$$ro*i!ately equal access to $olitical o$$ortunities and resources& +his holds the varia%le of $olitical

o$$ortunity equal across districts and allo's for e*a!ination of other indicators& +his is one of the

reasons 'hy Rai$ur, the state ca$itol, 'here there !ay %e easier $olitical access, is not included in this

analysis&

Both these schools of thouht on 'hy violent re%ellion occurs follo' a sinle the!eG lac( of

o$$ortunity& +his includes %oth the lac( of $olitical o$$ortunities to fully resolve rievances, as 'ell as

lac( of econo!ic o$$ortunities to achieve the econo!ic situation e*$ected %y an individual& +here !ay

%e a $erceived lac( of o$$ortunity in rural areas !ore than ur%an areas %ecause the state has less

$resence in rural areas and cannot $rovide even the se!%lance of health or education services& +here is

also less infrastructure, 'hich !eans less connectivity to other areas& +his !ay create the $erce$tion

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that rural individuals are stuc( in their local areas 'ithout the a%ility to e*$ress rievances or $ursue

ne' econo!ic activities 'hen co!$ared to their ur%an counter$arts, leadin to increased violent

activity in rural areas&

nother theory that atte!$ts to e*$lain 'hy violent re%ellions occur is that re%ellion is caused

%y ethnic or rou$ tensions& +hese $o$ulations 'hich are !ost li(ely to re%el aainst state authority are

often !inority rou$s 'ho feel threatened %y do!inant rou$s -urr 1..3& 5ontradictory e!$irical

evidence has sho'n that ethnic rievances are not correlated 'ith hiher incidence of civil 'ars

-earon and aitin 2003& "n the case of 5hhattisharh, it is the tri%al $o$ulation that is !ade to feel

threatened %y the do!inant non8tri%al rou$&Because incentive and o$$ortunity are critical to the

li(elihood of these at ris( rou$s challenin the state#s authority %y $rotestin or re%ellin, this does

not necessarily $reclude the $reviously discussed theories fro! %ein true -urr 2000& +his sense of

ris( is an i!$ortant conce$t in discussin violence& Ris( can %e e*istential, such as as security threat to

the continued e*istence of the $erson or society, or it could %e the ris( to the individual or fa!ily

enerated %y e*tended $overty& "f the $erceived ris( is hih enouh, $eo$le 'ill value their o'n lives

so little that it 'ill increase their li(elihood of $artici$atin in violent action, es$ecially 'ith reard to

the underta(in of suicide !issions -e'is 2012&

n alternative e*$lanation is si!$ly eora$hy& "t has %een sho'n that havin a eora$hy

characteri?ed %y rouh terrain !ay increase the li(elihood of civil 'ar -earon and aitin 2003&

Mountainous and forested areas are harder to $enetrate %y state authority, and this could %e a reason for

the concentration of re%ellion in the southern districts of 5hhattisarh& +hese districts are a!on the

!ost heavily forest districts in the state alon 'ith the !ountainous reion %orderin Madhya Pradesh

-i& 2& +he areas 'hich e*$erience less =a*alite violence, $ri!arily the reion that runs alon

5hhattisarh#s %order 'ith Arissa is less forested and less !ountainous& "t is also true that all %ut one of

the districts 'hich face the hihest levels of violence are eora$hically conruent to each other& "t is

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loical that 'hen there is a sinle violent !ove!ent, that !ove!ent 'ill have one eora$hical %ase

and not %e rando!ly distri%uted throuhout the state, creatin a $attern 'here eora$hy !atters&

Hypothesis

" 'ill test three theories of violent re%ellion usin district level data fro! 5hhattisarh %ased on

theories of the causes of violent re%ellion& My three hy$otheses are 1 econo!ic inequality, !easured

throuh relative inequality, 'ill %e hiher in the !ost violent districts 2 hih tri%al $o$ulations 'ill %e

correlated 'ith hih violence 3 the !ost violent districts 'ill %e the !ost forested, !ost !ountainous

and enerally eora$hically contiuous&

+he first hy$othesis is the !ost difficult to $rove 'ith the availa%le data %ecause data is at the

district, and not villae level& +his hy$othesis arues that econo!ic inequality 'ill %e hihest in the

!ost violent districts& +his is done %y !easurin the econo!ic realities of violent districts co!$ared to

less violent ones, as 'ell as esta%lishin 'hat the %asic e*$ectations that relative econo!ic inequality is

%ased on are& +his 'ill %e sho'n throuh direct econo!ic indicators, such as access to electricity, as

'ell as $ro*y varia%les for the availa%ility of econo!ic o$$ortunity, such as literacy rates&

+he second hy$othesis that 'ill %e tested is that !inority rou$s considered at ris( are !ore

li(ely to enae in re%ellion& +his 'ill %e done %y deter!inin the 'hich districts have the hihest

concentrations of #at ris(# rou$s in their $o$ulations& dditionally, scheduled castes !ay %e another at

ris( rou$& " 'ill deter!ine 'hether there is a correlation %et'een districts 'ith hih concentrations of

!inority $o$ulations and districts !ost affected %y violence, and also su$$ort this 'ith evidence of the

de!ora$hics !a(eu$ Maoist !ove!ents&

+he last hy$othesis is tests the eora$hy aru!ent& " 'ill esta%lish the ty$e of territory and

eora$hical location of the !ost violence $rone districts& +he relative rural $o$ulation of the districts

'ill %e co!$ared& "t is e*$ected that the !ost violent districts 'ill %e eora$hically contiuous,

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heavily forested, !ost !ountainous, and !ost rural&

+he 6!ost violent7 districts used in this analysis are the seven of 5hhattisarh#s seventeen

districts1'hich have %een identified as

a!on the 33 6'orst hit7 districts in

the country %y the ;nion Ministry of

)o!e ffairs -South sia +erroris!

Portal& +hese seven districts are

Bastar, =arayan$ur, :ante'ada,

Bia$ur, @an(er, Ranandaon and

Surua& +he first si* of these

districts are eora$hically

contiuous, %einnin in the

south'estern corner of the state

'hich %orders Arissa and ndhra Pradesh and stretchin north alon 5hhattisharh#s %orders 'ith

Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh& Surua is non8contiuous 'ith the other si* 'orst affected districts

and is in the northeast corner of the state, alon its %orders 'ith Jhar(hand and ;ttar Pradesh&

" 'ill co!$are these seven 'orst affected districts to the eiht districts of 5hhattisarh 'hich

do not a$$ear on the 'orst affected list& " 'ill not include the three !ost densely $o$ulated districts,

:ur, Rai$ur, and Janir85ha!$a, %ecause Maoist violence a$$ears to %e a rural $heno!enon& +hese

eiht less8affected districts are Bilas$ur, @oriya, Jash$ur, @or%a, Raiarh, Mahasa!und, :ha!tari, and

@a%eerdha!& +hese districts are for the !ost $art less rural than the 'orst districts& Several of the

districts share %orders 'ith the violence affected districts, so this does include districts 'hich violence

1 +his is %ased on a 200/ re$ort %y the "ndian overn!ent& Since its creation as a state in 2000, the nu!%er of districts in

5hhattisarh has chaned, resultin in a different nu!%er of districts counted in the 2001 census, the 200/ re$ort on=a*alite violence, and the 2011 census&

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could have $ossi%ly e*$anded to&

"t is i!$ortant to note that " see( to esta%lish a correlation %et'een econo!ic inequality, tri%al

$o$ulations, and eora$hy 'ith violence& While this !ay indicate there is a relationshi$ %et'een these

varia%les, data correlation alone does not esta%lish causality& dditionally, if this 'ere to %e a causal

relationshi$, there is no indication of the direction of causality& "t !ay %e $ossi%le that violent re%ellion

has caused the reion to %eco!e econo!ically underdevelo$ed& +his should %e es$ecially ta(en into

consideration %ecause of the e*tended nature of the conflict& )o'ever, the theories 'hich !y

hy$otheses test a%out causes violent re%ellion do suest that there is in fact a causation and the

directionality is that the factors e*a!ined, 'ith the e*ce$tion of eora$hy, cause $olitical violence&

Data

+he "ndian overn!ent does an e*cellent o% of collectin data on its $o$ulation 'hich is useful

for this analysis& Af s$ecial i!$ortance is the :istrict evel )ealth and acility Survey -:)S 'hich

collects data on the ty$es of houses and household assets, as 'ell health issues& :)S data is availa%le

at the district level, unli(e !ost census data& )o'ever, due to fluctuatin district %oundaries in

5hhattisarh, a historical quantitative analysis is not $ossi%le at the district level& :ata is availa%le to

su$$ort all three hy$othesi?es, 'ith the 'ea(est su$$ort for the econo!ic theory& +his data is

su!!ari?ed in $$endi* &

+he ur%an rural8distri%ution is one of the easiest factors to esta%lish& Provisional $o$ulation

totals fro! the 2011 "ndian census include ur%an and rural $o$ulation counts& +his data indicates that at

the district 'ide level, districts !ost effected %y violence are !ore rural& "n the seven !ost affected

districts, an averae of >F of the $o$ulation of the district is rural, 'ith no district havin less than

1F rural $o$ulation -5ensus 2011& +hese seven districts had an averae $o$ulation density of 102

$eo$le $er square (ilo!eter, 'ith the least dense district, Bia$ur, havin a $o$ulation density of only

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3. $eo$le $er square (ilo!eter and an F rural $o$ulation& "n co!$arison, the eiht less affected

districts had a less rural $o$ulation on averae& +he rural $o$ulation of these districts is an averae of

/>F& +hese districts sho' a reater variance than the violent ones, 'ith Raiarh havin only D0F rural

$o$ulation, %ut Jash$ur havin .1F of its $o$ulation rural& dditionally the averae $o$ulation

density is nearly t'ice that of the 'orst affected districts, 'ith an averae of 201 $eo$le $er square

(ilo!eter, varyin fro! 14> $eo$le $er square (ilo!eter in Jash$ur to 322 $eo$le $er square (ilo!eter

in Bilas$ur&

Ane statistic 'hich !easures econo!ic activities directly is the 'or( $artici$ation rate 2& +he

'or( $artici$ation rate is an indicator of 'hat $ercentae of the $o$ulation is e!$loyed +his statistic

challenes the assu!$tion that the !ost violent districts are the !ost econo!ically unequal& +he seven

violent districts have an averae 'or( $artici$ation rate of D1&.F of their $o$ulation $artici$atin in

'or(, D4F in rural areas& +he eiht less violent states have lo'er rates of 'or( $artici$ation, 'ith 4/F

averae across these districts and a D1F averae in rural areas& -5ensus 2001& +his could %e evidence

aainst the econo!ic inequality theory&

9*a!inin at so!e of the !ost %asic assets of the households can indicate 'hether relative

de$rivation e*ists& uc(ily, "ndia conducts health surveys 'hich ive this data at the level of each

district3& Averall, the districts 'ith hiher level of violence also $ossess on averae less develo$ed

household facilities&+he 'orst effected districts are only slihtly less li(ely to $ossess a toilet facility4

'ith an averae of 1D&4F of households surveyed co!$ared to 1&3F& n averae of /1F of

households in less violent areas have electricity, co!$ared to D.F in violent areas& )o'ever,

2 ll data follo'in, unless other'ise s$ecified, co!es fro! the 2001 census of "ndia& Because of ad!inistrative chanes,

in the districts of 5hhattisarh, one of the least affected districts, @a%eedha!, and t'o of the !ost affected districts,

=arayan$ur and Bia$ur do not a$$ear on the 2001 census& +here is an additional district 'hich a$$ears on the census,

@a'ardha, that is not included in this analysis&

3 :ata in this $arara$h, unless other'ise s$ecified, co!es fro! :)S 4>

4 +his is defined as includin $i$ed into d'ellin, $i$ed to yardH$lot, $u%lic ta$Hstand $i$eHhand $u!$,Htu%e 'ellH %ore'ellH'ell coveredHs$rin tan(er, cart 'ith s!all tan( and %ottled 'ater -:)S 4.&

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households in violent areas are slihtly !ore li(ely to have access to drin(in 'ater in the house or

near%y, 'ith 2F of households havin drin(in 'ater co!$ared to and averae of /F of households

in less violent areas& "n co!$arison, for "ndia as a 'hole, /0&3F of households have electricity, 4.&3F

have a toilet facility, and 4&4F have drin(in 'ater -""PS 200%& +his !eans that for all districts, the

only indicator that is reater than the "ndian total is electricity in less violent districts& +his difference

could illustrate an e*a!$le of e*$ectations 'hich are not !et&

)ealth infrastructure can also indicate an un!et e*$ectation& "nterestinly, in the districts !ost

affected %y violence, children are are !ore li(ely to receive full vaccinations %y ae t'o -""PS 200a&

)o'ever, the !ost effected areas are a!on the 'orst in the state for use of contrace$tives -:)S 20&

)ealth care infrastructure can %e used as a $ro*y varia%le for econo!ic equality as 'ell as the a%ility of

the state to overn effectively& "n the violent districts, an averae of 3&3F of villaes had any

overn!ent health facility, 'hile in the less violent districts only 32F of villaes had a overn!ent

health facility -:)S 4& dditionally in less violent districts, 34F of 'o!en re$orted havin access

to safe deliveries of children, defined as deliverin the child in an institution or at ho!e 'ith a s(illed

$erson, co!$ared to 2/F of 'o!en in the violence $rone districts -:)S /2 &nother $ro*y varia%le

for the reach of state overnance in districts is the nu!%er of 'o!en 'ho !arried youner than the

leal ae of eihteen years old& or the 'orst districts, an averae of 24&F of !arriaes occurred 'ith

a 'o!an %elo' the leal !arriae ae& "n the less effected districts, this nu!%er 'as !uch lo'er, 'ith

1D&DF of !arriaes involvin a irl youner than eihteen -:)S 3. &

iteracy rates are another i!$ortant varia%le for !easurin the a!ount of econo!ic

o$$ortunity& +he 'orst effected districts are enerally less educated than the less8effected districts,

'ith the 'orst districts havin and averae rural literacy rate of D2F of $eo$le older than / years old,

and the %etter off districts a rural literacy rate of >F -5ensus 2011& +he rural literacy rate varied fro!

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>0F in @a%eedha! to //F in :ha!tari for the less effected districts and fro! 34F in :ante'ada to

/4F in Ranandaon for the !ost effected districts& ive of the seven !ost violence effected districts

had a rural literacy rate of less than >0F, %ut the less effected districts 'ere all at or a%ove >0F rural

literacy& +he difference %et'een fe!ale rural literacy and total rural literacy can also %e used as a $ro*y

varia%le to the a!ount of o$$ortunity availa%le to the $o$ulation& An averae, the !ost violent districts

had a 10F %et'een overall rural literacy rates and rural fe!ale literacy rates& "n the less violent8$rone

districts this difference 'as 12F -5ensus 2011& +his could indicate that lac( of o$$ortunity in violence

$rone districts is due less to social issues such as ender than issues that effect cause a restriction on

o$$ortunity to the entire $o$ulation&

:ata, as 'ell as field accounts such as Roy -2010 indicate that the districts 'ith the hihest

tri%al $o$ulations are the !ost effected %y violence, and that it is the tri%als 'ho !a(e u$ !ost of the

$o$ulation, %ut not leadershi$, of the Maoists& "n 2001, five districts in 5hhattisarh had a scheduled

tri%e $o$ulation of !ore than D0F, Bastar, :ante'ada, Jash$ur, @an(er, and Surua -5ensus 2001&

our of these districts are included in the districts !ost affected %y violence& Anly one of the hihly

tri%al districts, Jash$ur, does not& Jash$ur is in the Bastar reion 'here violence is concentrated&

Ranandaon, the other hih violence district for 'hich data 'as availa%le in 2001, has a scheduled

tri%e $o$ulation of 2/F& +his is still a !uch hiher rate than the overall "ndia#s F tri%al $o$ulation&

)o'ever, it is lo'er than the 5hhattisarh total 32&DF tri%al $o$ulation -Rah!an 4>& =o district in

5hhattisarh 'as re$orted as havin a scheduled caste $o$ulation of !ore than 2DF in the 2001

census, so it is unli(ely that the scheduled castes are a $otential at ris( rou$ for violence&

Analysis

While the districts 'ith hih levels of violence a$$ear to %e in eneral less 'ell off

econo!ically, for !ost indicators there is not a lare difference %et'een the t'o cateories of districts

and for several indicators the violent districts are %etter than the less violent districts& +his sho's that

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there is li(ely a 'ea( correlation %et'een violence and econo!ic status& +his fits 'ith the idea of

$erceived de$rivation as a rievance 'hich can serve as a !otivation for collective action& When

$eo$le have the %elief that they e*$ect certain thins fro! society, such as electricity, 'or(, or health

care, they !ay %e !otivated to underta(e action 'hen these e*$ectations are not !et& +hey 'ill

$artici$ate in violence action 'hen they %elieve, iven the li(elihood of success and the e*$ected

$ayoff, that they 'ill %e %etter off havin $artici$ated in the re%ellion&

9*$loitation and econo!ic inequality have already %een identified as rievances for 'hich

collective action has %een orani?ed in 5hhattisarh& "t 'as the %elief that the local $o$ulation 'ere

%ein e*$loited throuh the 6invasion of forest lands,7 'hich held nu!erous resources, includin

!inerals and 'ater, led to the creation of the 5hhattisarh state -uha D4/& 9cono!ics and inequality

are at the heart of the rievances and de!ands of the Maoist !ove!ent in 5hhattisarh& +he Maoists

'ere initially unsuccessful at recruitin in the state, %ut the !ove!ent %eca!e entrenched in the forest

areas after a 1.1 ca!$ain to orani?e tri%al $eo$les to de!and a rise in the $rice of tendu leaves

-Roy 2010& +his ca!$ain 'as successful at increasin the $rice of the leaves& +hose 'ho live in

Maoist villaes re$ort lac( of electricity, schools, and drin(in 'ater as a !aor co!$laintsE they also

note that !any have left the villae in order to see( 'or( -u$ta 2013&

)o'ever, fro! the $ers$ective of those involved in the re%ellions, it is not ust econo!ic

inequality that serves as a !otivatin factors& "n the vie'$oint of the $eo$le livin in these reions,

state authority is seen a threat to their very 'ay of lifeG

9very !ornin, forest officials, even the !ost unior of the!, 'ould a$$ear in villaesli(e a %ad drea!, $reventin $eo$le fro! $louhin their fields, collectin fire'ood,

$luc(in leaves, $ic(in fruit, ra?in their cattle, fro! living& +hey %rouht ele$hants to

overrun fields and scattered %a%ool seeds to destroy the soil as they $assed %y& Peo$le'ould %e %eaten, arrested, hu!iliated, their cro$s destroyed& Af course, fro! the forest

de$art!entIs $oint of vie', these 'ere illeal $eo$le enaed in unconstitutional

activity, and the de$art!ent 'as only i!$le!entin the Rule of a'& -Roy 2010&

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+his leads evidence to the #at ris(# rou$ hy$othesis& +he "ndian overn!ent has reconi?ed this,

choosin to see( %an on Bau*ite !inin %ecause it could cause tri%al $eo$le to turn to the Maoists

-+i!es of "ndia 2013& ;nion !inister for tri%al affairs @ishore 5handra :eo said in a recent intervie'

that Maoists 6ain sy!$athy7 fro! tri%al $o$ulations %ecause of threats fro! the state to drive the! off

their land throuh activities li(e !inin& :eo $ointed to 6nelect of $eo$le there, the lac( of %asic

facilities and e*$loitation %y outsiders,7 as 6the !ain cause of unrest in the fifth and si*th schedule

areas7 -:as 2013& Because the tri%al $eo$le see their 'ay of life threatened, they are !otivated to

oin the Maoist !ove!ent& Many of those 'ho are $art of the !ove!ent oin fro! a very youn aeE

one of the co!!anders encountered %y rundhati Roy durin her ti!e s$ent 'ith Maoists in the

:ante'ada district had %een $art of the !ove!ent since he 'as nine years old& )o'ever, 'hile it is

li(ely that tri%al rou$s initially oined the Maoists %ecause of a $erceived threat fro! the state, it is

$ossi%le that no' the Maoist !ove!ent, 'hich 'hile co!$osed larely of tri%als, is not lead %y the!,

is hurtin the tri%al rou$s& Ane e*a!$le is in a Maoist villae 'here the school house 'as desined

for and used as a Maoist fortress, %ecause the teachers 'ould not o into the villae -Roy 2010&

+his conclusion 'ould suest that further data collection and analysis should %e done at a

scale lare enouh to esta%lish statistical sinificance& Because there are indicators for 'hich the

violent districts are %etter than the less violent districts, such as access to overn!ent health facilities

and access to 'ater, it is not $ossi%le to clearly conclude 'ith the iven data that the violence effected

districts are econo!ically 'orse off than the less violent districts in the reion, and if they are it is not

dra!atically so& "t is also $ossi%le that the differences in econo!ic factors !ay %e related to the !ore

rural nature of the violent districts than the fact that they are !ore violent& +here is also the $ossi%ility

that the direction of causation runs in the o$$osite direction, 'ith increased levels of violence causin

decreased invest!ent and develo$!ent in these districts& "t is also i!$ortant to note that the less violent

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districts tend to have !inin and industry as their !aor econo!ic activities, 'hile the !ore violent

$rone districts tend to %e !uch !ore forested and de$endent on ariculture and forest $roducts&

+his analysis does not also $reclude the $ossi%ility of the $olitical o$$ortunity theory fro!

%ein true& hih $ercentae of rural $o$ulation !eans that $olitical e*$ression is !ore costly in ter!s

of ti!e& Rural areas, alon 'ith hih rural illiteracy rates also li(ely !eans that there are sinificant

difficulties in co!!unicatin 'ith the state, decreasin the cost of violent re%ellion relative to nor!al

dissent, either throuh individual or collective action& Because the t'o !ost $ro!inent $arties in the

state, the BJP and the 5onress Party, are %oth national $arties, there !ay %e less $olitical o$$ortunity

for e*$ressin dissent a%out local issues&

+he data suests that hih rates of tri%al $o$ulations !ay %e correlated 'ith hih levels of

violence& our out of the five districts 'ith availa%le data in 2001 affected %y violence, had tri%al

$o$ulations a%ove D0F and the re!ainin district had a tri%al $o$ulation of 2/F& Anly one of the

districts not 'orst affected %y violence had a tri%al $o$ulation of reater than D0F& )o'ever, it is not

$ossi%le to say 'ith confidence that tri%al $o$ulations are a cause of violence %ecause of the s!all

nu!%er of districts %ein considered& "t is also $ossi%le that tri%al $o$ulation correlates 'ith other

factors such as eora$hy or rural $o$ulations, and factors 'hich are also associated 'ith violence&

)o'ever, tri%al $o$ulations are not 'ithout rievances& +ri%al $o$ulations face !any econo!ic

and social $ro%le!s& +ri%al $o$ulations tend to %e a!onst the $oorest $o$ulations in "ndia and often

$artici$ate less in econo!ic activities & +he tri%al $o$ulations have less access to infrastructure,

education, or econo!ic o$$ortunities than non8tri%al $o$ulations do& ll of these factors could create

the situation of $erceived de$rivation %ased on real su%stantive econo!ic differences %et'een tri%al

and non8tri%al $o$ulations& +ri%al $o$ulations 'ith these rievances !ay %e easily led into re%ellion

%ecause of the !essae of the Maoist co!!unists, 'hich $ro!ise class equality& +his ideoloy, if it

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'ere to succeed 'ould result in ains of quality of life for the tri%al $o$ulations&

loo( at the eora$hy of the state sho's that

the districts 'hich are !ost heavily effected %y

violence are the !ost eora$hically li(ely to sustain

an e*tended re%el !ove!ent& +hese are districts are the

!ost heavily forested and !ountainous& dditionally,

'ith the e*ce$tion of the Surua district, they are all

eora$hically contiuous in the southern $art of the

state %orderin ndhra Pradesh and Maharashtra& +he

less violent districts are considera%ly less forested and

not in !ountainous reions&

Ather factors 'hich !ay influence the decision to $artici$ate in re%ellion at the individual level

!ust %e ta(en into account& Ane e*a!$le is coercion, such as that e*$erienced %y the divasi& +here is

also the i!$ortance of %elief in ideoloy& While $re8conditions are i!$ortant, the a%ility to s$read

ideoloy and ideas are critical to recruit!ent fro! the $ers$ective of the violent orani?ation& +here are

also social issues, such as social alienation, 'hich can influence at the individual level -Sae!an

200&

Conclusion

;lti!ately, all three hy$othesis e*$lainin violent re%ellion !ay %e $ossi%ly true in

5hhattisarh& While the econo!ic data 'ea(ly su$$orts the theory of econo!ic inequality, econo!ic

rievances are the cited !otivations for re%ellion& 9vidence a%out the de!ora$hics of the Maoist

re%els and the de!ora$hic !a(eu$ of the !ost violent districts !a(es it clear that tri%al rou$s are

clearly closely tied to the violence& +he tri%als involved hihliht threats to their e*istence as a reason

for oinin the re%ellion& dditionally, it is clear that the re%ellion is %ased in forested areas, 'hich

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su$$orts the eora$hical theory& +hese three factors are closely tied toether in the Bastar reion of

5hhattisarh 'here the tri%al $o$ulations live in heavily forested reions and face econo!ic hardshi$s&

suestion for further research 'ould %e to underta(e field 'or( at the villae level,

classifyin all villaes in 5hhattisarh accordin to levels of violence and collectin socioecono!ic

data& +his data 'ould $rovide clearer evidence for the econo!ic status of the s$ecific $o$ulation that

$artici$ates in the Maoist re%ellion co!$ared to the non8$artici$atin $o$ulation& villae level

analysis could 'or( to !ore closely identify the areas effected %y violence, and 'ith this identification

further isolate the s$ecific causes 'hich lead to violence&

Appendix A

:ata Su!!ary

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5ensus of "ndia, 6Provisional Po$ulation +otals, 7 2011,

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5ensus of "ndia, 65ensus 2001G :ata Anline7htt$GHH'''&censusindia&ov&inH5ensus:ata2001H5ensus:ataAnlineH9cono!ic:ata&as$*,

accessed March 1, 2013

:as, Sriana Mitra, 6+ri%als !ust have equity in !inin8 it isn#t !eant to enrich a fe'G @ishore5handra :eo,7 +i!es of "ndia, March 1, 2013,

htt$GHHti!esofindia&indiati!es&co!Hho!eHo$inionHintervie'sH+ri%als8!ust8have8equity8in8

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earon, Ja!es and :avid aitin, 69thnicity, "nsurency, and 5ivil War,7 !erican Political Science

Revie', , 2013

Pradhan, a(ir Mohan, 6"ndiaG +actical Retreat of Maosists8 nalysis7 9urasia Revie', March 11,

2013, htt$GHH'''&eurasiarevie'&co!H110320138india8tactical8retreat8of8!aoists8analysisH,accessed March 1., 2013

Sae!an, Marc,Leaderless *ihad, ;niversity of Pennsylvania Press, 200

Schoc(, @urt, 6+he 5onunctional Model of Political 5onflictG +he "!$act of Political A$$ortunities

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Explanatory Variables for Violent Rebellion in Chattisgarh

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