Overview

Economic Development Framework for Interpreting

Local Housing Markets in Small Town Canada

Laura Ryser1, Greg Halseth1 & David Bruce2

1University of Northern British Columbia2Mount Allison University

Overview

• Rural Restructuring and Housing Linkages

• Defining Rural and Small Town Places

• Clustering Places by Economic Activity

• Framework for Understanding Change

• Case Studies– Port Clements, BC– Gold River, BC

• Discussion

Rural Restructuring and Housing

• Housing investments based on projected future

• Employers may face difficulty with housing shortages or lack of affordability

• Lenders / insurers concerned about ability to recover losses on property in default

Defining Rural and Small Town Places

• Definitions link to why / what people are exploring in rural and small town places

• Census Subdivisions (CSDs)– Relatively stable– Facilitate comparisons over time

• No MIZ and Weak MIZ used

• Places selected:– Population 50 - 4,999– First Nations reserves excluded

Distribution of Places by MIZ Designation & Population Group

Population Group MIZ Code Total

No MIZ Weak MIZ

2,500-4,999

% within population group 3.7% 96.3%134

50-2,499

% within population group 47.3% 52.7%1,298

Total Count

% within population group 43.2% 56.8%1,432

Source: Derived from Rambeau, S. and K. Todd. 2000. Census Metropolitan Area and Census Agglomeration Influenced Zones (MIZ) with Census Data. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.

Clustering Places by Economic Activity

• Threshold: 25% of labour force employed in a sector or 25% age 65+

• SIC=Standard Industrial Classification 1980

Economic sectors include:– agricultural– fishing– forestry– mining– tourism– manufacturing

1Dynamic services = transportation & storage, communication & utility, wholesale, finance, real estate & business

2Non-market services = government, education, health, and social services

– dynamic services1

– non-market services2

– retirement– dual specialization– non-specialized

Models of Community Development

• Lucas (1971)– Construction– Recruitment– Transition– Maturity

• Bradbury (1988)– Winding down– Closure

• Halseth and Sullivan (2002)– Alternative futures

Framework for Understanding Change in the Local Economy

• Start-up• Growth• Plateau• Decline• Alternative Futures

– Transform into another economic sector and grow

– Transform and plateau at a similar level– Transform and decline– Function in same sector at a lower plateau– Decommission / closure

Socio-economic Characteristics to Indicate Change in Community Development

• Population

• Household

• Migration

• Income

• Labour Force Participation

• Housing

Summary of RST Population Change

All Communities with 1991 Population 50-4,999, 1991-2001

Source: Statistics Canada 2001, 1991.

Category Total Lost

% Total Gained

% N=

All communities 954 71.0 388 29.0 1342

Agricultural 236 84.9 42 15.1 278

Fishing 21 95.5 1 4.5 22

Forestry 9 69.2 4 30.8 13

Mining 23 88.5 3 11.5 26

Tourism 6 50.0 6 50.0 12

Manufacturing 90 80.4 22 19.6 112

Dynamic 27 54.0 23 46.0 50

Non-market 143 54.0 122 46.0 265

Retirement 30 71.4 12 28.6 42

Dual specialization 217 72.8 81 27.2 298

Non-specialized 144 65.2 77 34.8 221

Case Studies I

• Purposeful sampling methodology

• 11 case studies reflect the 11 sectors

• Case studies drawn from database

• Triangulation– Newspaper archives, reports, gov’t

publications, community websites, etc.

Case Studies II

Socio-economic Characteristics – Decline I

Socio-economic Characteristics Decline Stage Expectations for

Forestry Communities

Decline Stage Expectations for Manufacturing Communities

Population Characteristics

% Pop’n change Decrease Decrease

% Pop’n 0-14 Decrease Decrease



% Pop’n 45-64 Increase Increase

% Pop’n 65+ Increase Increase

Household Characteristics

Change in % lone parent families Increase Increase

Change in % one-person households

Increase Increase

Change in % families with children Decrease Decrease

Change in youth dependency ratio Decrease Decrease

Change in elderly dependency ratio Increase Increase

Socio-economic Characteristics – Decline II

Socio-economic Characteristics Decline Stage Expectations for

Forestry Communities

Decline Stage Expectations for Manufacturing Communities

Income Characteristics

Change in % employment income Decrease Decrease

Change in % gov’t transfer payments Increase Increase

Change in % other income Increase Increase

Labour Force Characteristics

Change in % employed in forestry/manuf Decrease Decrease

Change in LF Participation rate 15+ Decrease Decrease

Change in LF Participation rate Females 15+

Decrease Decrease

Change in % commute outside CSD Increase Increase

Housing Characteristics

Change in % built last 5 years Decrease Decrease

% Change in average dwelling value Decrease Decrease

Forestry: Port Clements

• Decline period: 1996-2001– 1996: 44% employed in forestry– 2001: 33.3% employed in forestry

• No MIZ status– 42 kms to Masset– 6 hour ferry ride to Prince Rupert

Port Clements I: 1996-2001

Socio-economic Characteristics Decline Stage Expectations for Forestry Communities

Port Clements

1996-2001


% Pop’n change Decrease -7.5%

% Pop’n 0-14 Decrease -17.9%



% Pop’n 45-64 Increase 12.5%

% Pop’n 65+ Increase 16.7%


Change in % lone parent families Increase 14.4%

Change in % one-person households Increase 4.6%

Change in % families with children Decrease -15.2%

Change in youth dependency ratio Decrease -2.1%

Change in elderly dependency ratio Increase 2.5%

Port Clements II: 1996-2001

Socio-economic Characteristics Decline Stage Expectations for Forestry Communities

Port Clements

1996-2001


Change in % employment income Decrease 0.9%

Change in % gov’t transfer payments Increase 1.2%

Change in % other income Increase -2.5%


Change in % employed in forestry Decrease -11.3%

Change in LF Participation rate 15+ Decrease -1.9%

Change in LF Participation rate Females 15+ Decrease 11.7%

Change in % commute outside CSD Increase -36.5%


Change in % built last 5 years Decrease -16.1%

% Change in average dwelling value Decrease 18.5%

Port Clements: Context for Change

• Challenges

– Isolation

– Softwood Lumber Dispute

– Crown land controlled by large corporations

– Aboriginal land claims

– Regionalization of services in Terrace

Port Clements: Context for Change

• Alternative Futures / Opportunities

– Non-market service sector growing

– Broadband Internet access

– Off-shore oil and gas

– Cinola mine site

– Community forest

Manufacturing: Gold River

• Decline period: 1991-2001– 1991: 47.1% employed in manufacturing– 2001: 2.7% employed in manufacturing– 2001: 28.9% employed in non-market

services

• Weak MIZ status– 90 kms from Campbell River

Gold River I: 1991-2001

Socio-economic Characteristics Decline Stage Expectations for Manufact. Towns

Gold River

1991-2001


% Pop’n change Decrease -37.3%




% Pop’n 45-64 Increase 25.0%

% Pop’n 65+ Increase 600.0%


Change in % lone parent families Increase -2.3%

Change in % one-person households Increase 7.1%

Change in % families with children Decrease -26.5%

Change in youth dependency ratio Decrease -10.1%

Change in elderly dependency ratio Increase 9.7%

Gold River II: 1991-2001

Socio-economic Characteristics Decline Stage Expectations for Manufacturing Communities

Gold River

1991-2001


Change in % employment income Decrease -15.6%

Change in % gov’t transfer payments Increase 5.8%

Change in % other income Increase 10.0%


Change in % employed in manufacturing Decrease -44.4%

Change in LF Participation rate 15+ Decrease -10.2%

Change in LF Participation rate Females 15+ Decrease -0.5%

Change in % commute outside CSD Increase 3.4%


Change in % built last 5 years Decrease 0.0%

% Change in average dwelling value Decrease -13.1%

Gold River: Context for Change

• Challenges– Poor newsprint prices– High fibre, transportation, and energy

costs– High bank interest– Increase in stumpage rates– Economic slump in Asia– Mill closure

Gold River: Context for Change

• Alternative Future / Opportunities

– Commercial / tourism fishing re-opened in 1997

– Gold River Housing Corporation – sale in 1999

– Provincial funding to maintain services / ease burden of lost tax base

– Epcor power plant

Discussion I

• Housing is an important commodity and service

• Decisions must be taken with care and appropriate information

• Mortgage insurance providers, investors, and policy makers need to look beyond the current state of the economy

Discussion II

• Framework to understand trajectory of economic development in RST places

• 11 types of economic sectors• Socio-economic characteristics provide

mechanism for tracking change• Case studies reasonably consistent with

framework• Inconsistencies demonstrate that places

are unique – context matters

3333 University Way, Prince George, BC, Canada

V2N 4Z9http://www.unbc.ca/cdi

Dr. Greg Halseth, Acting Director Phone: (250) 960-5826Fax: (250) 960-6533Email: [email protected]

Community Development Institute (CDI)

Overview

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