Outlook on power interconnection in North-East Asia 1-4... · 2018-11-19 · 3 1. Current status of...
Transcript of Outlook on power interconnection in North-East Asia 1-4... · 2018-11-19 · 3 1. Current status of...
Outlook on Power Interconnection in
North-East Asia
China Electric Power Planning & Engineering Institute (EPPEI)
2018.10
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Outline
Current status of power interconnection
Potential analysis
Outlook on power interconnection in North-East Asia
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2
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1、Current status of power interconnection
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1. Current status of power interconnection
China-Russia
5 lines ,500/220/110kV
Import:3290 GWh
China-North Korea
2 lines,66kV
Export:1 GWh
China-Mongolia
12 lines,220/35/10kV
Export:1220 GWh
Power Interconnection between China and North-East Asian
Neighboring Countries, 2017
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2804 3662
4549 5353 4846 4715 4700 4700
5776 4716
2686
4718 3414 3238 3000
2790
0
5000
10000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2010-2017 Power Trade between China and Neighboring
Countries
Import
Export
Unit: GWh
Russia
69%
Myanmar
31%
Power Import
Vietnam
52%
Myanmar
5%
Laos
8%
Mongolia
35%
Power Export
1. Current status of power interconnection
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Entrusted by ESCAP and China National Energy Administration, EPPEI is Chinese
Secretariat of the Energy Connectivity expert working group of the ESCAP Energy
Commission.
1. Current status of power interconnection
During the 73rd Session of ESCAP, we adopted a proposal to establish Energy
Connectivity expert working group which is proposed by China, 2017.
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1. Current status of power interconnection
Research on Outlook of Power Interconnection between China and
North East Asia Countries
China-Russia Power Cooperation Planning
China-Mongolia Energy Cooperation Planning
Research on Roadmap of Energy Connectivity in Asia and Pacific
Region
……
Related Research conducted by EPPEI:
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2、Potential analysis
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• Russia Energy Resource Reserves
2. Potential Analysis
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Wind Power theoretical Reserves 80 Trillion kWh/Year
Solar Power theoretical Reserves 2.2 Trillion kWh/Year
Hydro Power theoretical Reserves 2.3 Trillion kWh/Year
Coal Proved Reserves 106 Billion Tons
Nature Gas Proved Reserves 32 Trillion Cubic Meter
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• Russia
EFA (Energy Forecasting Agency) of Russia made forecast on the power
demand of Russia in 2030, and put forward 2 scenario.
2. Potential Analysis
Power electricity consumption forecast
Unit: TWh
Power generation capacity forecast
Unit: GW
980 994
1151
1388
1619
1860
980 985
1127
1288
1419
1593
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
High scenario Low scenario
215 215
379
324
High scenario Low scenario
2008 2030
2.6% 1.9%
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2. Potential Analysis
• Russia
According to Russia EFA forecast, the power surplus installed capacity
of Russia in 2020 will be more than 40GW. Russia has the potential of
conducting interconnection with neighboring countries and exporting
surplus power electricity.
Eastern Power Joint System Power Surplus >4GW
Eastern Siberia Power Surplus >5GW
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• Mongolia Energy Resource Reserves
2. Potential Analysis
Wind Power theoretical Reserves 1.1 TW
Solar Power theoretical Reserves 1.5 TW
Coal Proved Reserves 12 Billion Tons
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• Mongolia
The 2015-2030 power demand forecast report of Mongolia put forward 3 scenario. The growth rate of power electricity demand in Mongolia will be very fast.
2. Potential Analysis
Power electricity consumption forecast Unit: TWh Unit: GW
Power load forecast
Mongolia’s power system is not particularly large. Although the power consumption
will increase very rapidly ,the amount of power consumption is relatively small and the
demand for domestic installed capacity will not be very large.
12.3
22
6.59
13.3
23.8
15.8
28.3
2015 2020 2030
Low Mid High
13%,15%,19%
6%,6%,6%
2.24
4.07
1.25
2.4
4.38
2.72
4.96
2015 2020 2030
Low Mid High
12%,14%,17%
6.2%,6.2%,2.9%
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• Mongolia
Mongolia has abundant energy resources, which can be converted into
power electricity. According to preliminary estimates, Mongolia export
power potential is more than 15GW in the eastern and southern regions. In
the future, Mongolia would actively seek power consumption market in the
Northeast Asian countries.
2. Potential Analysis
中 国
蒙 古 国
Power development potential>15GW
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• Republic of Korea
The 7th power demand and supply long-term planning (2015-2029) made
forecast for power demand of ROK. The power electricity consumption may
reach to 657TWh in 2029. South Korea may need to add new power capacity
of 28GW from now to 2029. This demand may be met by importing energy
resources to build power plants, or by importing power electricity directly from
neighboring countries.
2. Potential Analysis
Power electricity consumption forecast
Unit: TWh
505
657
2015 2029
2.2%
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• Republic of Korea
2. Potential Analysis
The power generation in ROK
are mainly coal-fired and gas-
fired units, while the amount of
coal and gas resource in ROK is
relatively small which largely rely
on import.
Korean power companies
hope to guarantee their domestic
power supply through power
interconnection with neighbors .
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• Democratic People's Republic of Korea
2. Potential Analysis
Recently, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has gradually eased. The
future power construction market in North Korea is worthy of attention and
research. At the same time, it also provides more possibilities for the
Northeast Asia power interconnection channels.
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• Japan
The forecast by EIA on power installed capacity and generation of Japan are as
follow. The demand of power generation in Japan is not growing very fast in the
future. However, because of the large base amount, the new installed capacity is
still relatively large, need to add more than 40GW new power generation.
2. Potential Analysis
Power electricity production forecast
Unit: TWh Unit: TkW
1013
1042
1079
1111
2016 2020 2025 2030
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
Power generation capacity forecast
3300
3434
3591
3737
2016 2020 2025 2030
0.9%
1.0%
0.8%
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2. Potential Analysis
The power generation in Japan are mainly coal-fired, gas-fired, oil-fired and nuclear power units, while the amount of coal, gas and oil in Japan is relatively small which largely rely on import.
Moreover, Japan focuses on new energy development and utilization to ensure environment protection and sustainable development. Japanese companies has been conducting power interconnection in NEA related research positively.
Thermal
Hydro
Nuclear
• Japan power plants distribution map
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• China
In 2017, the overall power consumption in China is 6310TWh. The average
annual growth rate from 2012-2017 is 4.9%.
Unit: TWh
2. Potential Analysis
1347
2478
4200 4703 4966
5342 5640 5690 5920
6310 13.0%
11.1%12.0%
5.6%
7.6%
5.6%
0.9%
5.0%
6.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Power Consumption Increase Rate
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• China
By the end of 2017, the overall capacity in China is 1780GW. The average annual
growth rate from 2012-2017 is 7.3%.
Hydro power is 340GW, wind power is 160GW, solar power is 130GW. Renewable
energy power generation accounted for 38%.
Thermal
62%
Hydro
19%
Nuclear
2%Wind
9%
Solar and Other
8%
2017 Power Generation Structure
Unit:GW
2. Potential Analysis
319
517
966 1063
1147 1250
1360 1530
1650 1780
10.1%
13.3%
9.9%
7.9%9.0% 8.8%
12.5%
7.8%
7.9%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Installed Capacity Increase Rate
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• China
According to the 13th Five-Year power development planning, the total power
consumption of China will reach 9500 TWh in 2030. In the next decade. Power
demand in Northeast and North China will continue to grow steadily.
2. Potential Analysis
Unit: TWh
5550
7000
85009500
2015 2020 2025 2030
4.8%
4.0%2.3%
North-East Region
ChinaNorth Region
Power electricity consumption forecast
Unit: TWh
418 477
572
2016 2020 2025
3.6%3.7%
1448 1740
2052
2016 2020 2025
4.7%
3.4%
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• China
2. Potential Analysis
2025-2030, north-east and north China have certain space for power
growth, which could consider to receive power from outside.
In the long term, China encourages to conduct research on financial and
technical feasibility of more power interconnection projects, based on the
principle of mutual benefits.
Before 2025, northeast and north China power generations are
oversupplied, which have the potential to export clean energy to the
neighboring countries .
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• North East Asia Power Flow Direction
2. Potential Analysis
Market
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3、Outlook on power interconnection
in North-East Asia
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◼ Political factors: cross-border power connectivity requiresrelevant countries have strong political trust; needs tocoordinate the demands of all stakeholders; concerns ondegrading of state energy security.
◼ Economic and business factors: Large investments; Complicatedbusiness model. The payback period is long and uncertain,especially under different legal and national systems.
◼ Technical and standards factors: requires to coordinate theplanning and operation of power systems in different countries,including grid code, electricity market design and dispatching,etc..
◼ ……
3. Outlook
• Challenges
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3. Outlook
• NEED TO STEP BY STEP
Road-Map Idea:
⚫ Short term(now-2025): Give priority to the implementation of less
difficult interconnection projects. Actively conduct research on difficult
projects. Improve consensus.
⚫ Long term(2025-2050): Based on the experience of implemented
interconnection projects, we will expand the consensus among NEA
countries and promote wider regional power interconnection.
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3. Outlook
Short-term:
North-east and north China are all
over-supplied. Therefore, China and
Russia could maintain a stable power
trade in recent. Carrying out research
work to expand the scale of
interconnection.
Long-term:
North China has certain space for
power growth. It is possible to
promote large-scale power inter-
connection projects in China and
Russia.
• China-Russia
Research could be conducted on the scale, plan, economics ofpower transmission project between China and Russia.
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3. Outlook
The cross border power trade can be carried out in the early stage.The large-scale power interconnection could be taken intoconsideration according the power market, electricity tariff and etc..
• China-Mongolia Short-term:
Strengthen the interconnection
between Mongolia southern region
and China Inner Mongolia by 220kV or
500kV. Expand the scale of power trade
between the two sides. Improve the
stability of regional power grids, and
promote the optimal allocation of
resources in close border area.
Long-term:
It is possible to construct a large-scale
power interconnection channel, which
exports the power from southeast
Mongolia to north China.
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3. Outlook
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There are still technical, economic and other related issues in the power interconnectionbetween China, Korea and Japan that need further in-depth research.In the future, relevant projects can be promoted in a timely manner according torelevant research results and the willing of all countries.
Technology
Undersea power transmission is Difficult
Economics
Huge investment
Power source
Renewable energy from China, Russia and
Mongolia
Distribution
Complex
• China-Korea-Japan Power Interconnection Long-term:
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3. Outlook
For long-term, research could be conducted to explore the feasibility of the
interconnection on Russia-China-DPRK-Korea-Japan, including the transmission scale,
technology selection, economic evaluation, operation mode, business model, etc..
• Russia-China-DPRK-Korea-Japan Power Interconnection
Long-term:
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3. Outlook
Suggestions
1. Strengthen the cooperation mechanism for power
interconnection
• Strengthen policy communication between countries, makefull use of existed multilateral cooperation platform ormechanism, promote the cooperation mechanism of powerinterconnection. Mobilize the enthusiasm of relevantenterprises and financial.
2. Jointly carry out the research and planning work on power
interconnection
• Carry out the research jointly on power interconnectionplanning and make reasonable roadmap with widelyparticipation. Make full exchange and coordination amongeach country’s power development planning.
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3. Outlook
Suggestions
3. Promote the exchange of grid construction and
operation standards• Study on the grid construction and operation standards of
multiple countries. Strengthen the exchange of relatedstandards, to provide support for power interconnectionprojects.
4. Explore the construction of regional power market
• Study power market mechanism of related countries, andformulate regional power trading and dispatching mechanism.Explore to establish regional power market.
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3. Outlook
Suggestions
5. Increase financial support
• Build a platform for cooperation between financialinstitutions and power enterprises, broadenfinancing channels, reduce financing costs, andprovide financial support for power interconnectionprojects.
6. Promote innovation and application in some key
technologies
• Accelerate technological innovation, solve theproblems of long-distance transmission of largecapacity under ocean. Strengthen cooperation andpromote exchanges of technical personnel in thefield of power interconnection.
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Thank you!