OSK DMG Report Regional Asian Consumer Day Highlights 110913
Transcript of OSK DMG Report Regional Asian Consumer Day Highlights 110913
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8/13/2019 OSK DMG Report Regional Asian Consumer Day Highlights 110913
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Sector Update, 10 September 2013
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Asian Consumers
OSK|DMG Asean-HK Consumer Day Highlights
Macro
Risks
Growth
Value
OSK|DMG Consumer Day
Source: OSK-DMG estimates
Event Statistics
Date: 3 September 2013Venue: The Fullerton Hotel, Singapore
Number of corporate:21Number of institutional client: 139Number of meeting request:790
Source: OSK-DMG estimates
Tan Han Meng, CFA, CPA+65 6232 3839, +66 2862 [email protected]
Hong Kong Research
Indonesia Research
Malaysia Research
Thailand Research
Singapore Research
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
At our OSK|DMG inaugural Asean and Hong Kong Consumer Day at
The Fullerton Hotel in Singapore on 3 Sept 2013, we showcased 21consumer counters from six countries/territories. Altogether, we hosted790 meetings involving 140 institutional clients. Philippines JollibeeFoods, Singapores Parkson Retail Asia, and Thailands Oishi wereamong the companies that garnered the most attention.
Upbeat on long term prospects. The 21 counters, with an averagemarket cap of USD1.2bn, are trading at a FY13F P/E of ~19.0x. Thissuggests that investors remain upbeat on the regions long termprospects despite the recent correction. The Philippine companies havean average FY13F P/E of 29.0x, followed by Malaysia (19.0x), Singapore(19.0x), Thailand (17.0x), Indonesia (14.0x) and Hong Kong (10.0x).
Strong interest for Philippines. We see the high valuations reflectingoptimism on the country, going by the average 40 investors who met upwith each of the three Philippine-centric companies - Del Monte Pacific(DELM SP, NR), Jollibee Foods (JFC PM, NR) and Puregold Price Club(PGOLD PM, NR). These companies generally experience good growthmomentum in their domestic market and are upbeat on their future
prospects.
Indonesia faces near term headwinds.On the other hand, companiesfrom Indonesia are trying to adjust to accelerating inflation as well as aweakening currency. A number of them have started to increase theirselling prices in order to preserve margins. Elsewhere, we gathersentiment in China may soon stabilise. In this report, we summarise thekey takeaways of the meetings held during the event.
P/E (x) P/B (x) Yield (%)Dec-12 Dec-12 Dec-12
AEON MYR14.08 MYR16.20 23.3 3.4 1.6 BUYBrahims Holdings MYR1.29 - 32.0 1.3 - NOT RATEDDaibochi MYR3.30 MYR3.53 15.3 2.5 4.0 NEUTRALDel Monte Pacific SGD0.81 - 25.6 3.2 2.9 NOT RATEDEu Yan Sang SGD0.75 SGD0.92 20.1 2.3 2.8 BUYJollibee Foods PHP165 - 46.4 8.2 1.3 NOT RATEDMalindo Feedmill Tbk PT IDR2,900 IDR4,000 16.4 7.2 0.9 BUYNok Airlines Co Ltd THB21 THB38 13.6 11.7 5.3 BUYOishi Group PCL THB90 THB130 25.6 5.4 - NEUTRALOriental Watch Holdings HKD2.34 HKD2.60 10.3 0.6 3.4 NEUTRALParkson Retail Asia Ltd SGD1.22 SGD1.28 19.5 3.4 2.3 NEUTRALPetra Foods SGD3.60 - 31.7 5.3 1.4 NOT RATEDPuregold Price Club PHP39 - 40.0 3.9 0.9 NOT RATEDQL Resources Bhd MYR3.48 MYR4.20 21.9 3.3 1.3 BUYSheng Siong Group SGD0.67 SGD0.78 28.3 6.1 4.2 BUYSino Grandness Food Industry Group LtdSGD1.22 SGD1.74 5.6 2.0 - BUYSupra Boga Lestari IDR500 - 21.5 2.2 - NOT RATEDTenfu Cayman Holdings
HKD3.81
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12.5
2.0
5.9
NOT RATED
Thai Beverage SGD0.50 - 18.9 3.9 3.3 NOT RATEDTiga Pilar Sejahtera Food IDR1,150 - 18.2 2.0 - NOT RATEDWismilak Inti Makmur Tbk PT IDR650 IDR1,000 20.8 2.1 5.3 BUY
Company Name Price Target Rating
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Hong KongOriental Watch (398 HK, Neutral, FV: HKD2.60); Market Cap: USD172m
OW is a Hong Kong-based luxury watch retailer with >105 stores in Greater China. Ithas strategic partnerships with Rolex and Tudor, which together account for >70% ofits sales. Despite our NEUTRAL call, we are positive on OWs long-term prospects asa leading luxury watch retailer, as well as the hidden value in its realizable NAV of
HKD4.0/share. Although the current sales slowdown in China (attributed to theclampdown on corruption) as well as higher rentals and labour costs will affectperformance in the near term, consumer sentiment will eventually stabilise in China.The company said it disposed of one of its Hong Kong properties in FY13, leaving itwith four. Management is still looking to sell one or two more stores at a suitableprice. These stores could either be too small (watch retailers and boutiques arelooking to own larger shop fronts), located at 2nd tier locations, or due to OWsstrategy to unlock the value from its prime stores.
Forecasts and Valuations Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14F
Total turnover (HKDm) 3,243 3,918 3,936 3,733 4,276
Reported net profit (HKDm) 113 219 164 163 165
Recurring net profit (HKDm) 113 219 258 86 165
Recurring net profit growth (%) 12.2 95.0 17.6 (66.6) 90.9
Core EPS (HKD) 0.30 0.44 0.46 0.15 0.29
DPS (HKD) 0.05 0.11 0.11 0.07 0.07
Dividend Yield (%) 2.4 4.7 4.7 3.0 3.1
Core P/E (x) 7.7 5.3 5.1 15.5 8.1
Return on average equity (%) 8.5 13.5 8.3 7.5 7.0
P/B (x) 0.65 0.59 0.64 0.60 0.54
P/CF (x) 7.3 5.5 na 13.1 3.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.34 2.82 4.92 9.50 4.36
Net debt to equity (%) 5.9 net cash 14.3 14.0 net cash
Our vs consensus EPS (%) 16.4 Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
Tenfu Cayman Holdings (6868 HK, Not Rated); Market Cap: USD603mTenfu is Chinas leading tea product company that sells and markets tea leaves, teasnacks and tea ware. According to Euromonitor, it was ranked no. 1 in China in all itsmain product categories in 2010, with market shares of 3.7%, 46.3% and 30.8% forbranded tea leaves, tea snacks and tea ware respectively. It has the largestdistribution network among its peers, with 1,315 retail stores nationwide in China. Ithas made 3 recent acquisitions, including a tea processing plant and a bubble teacompany. As a result, high-end tea products have seen their share of revenue mixfallen from 30% to 25% currently. It is working to attract the younger generation viathe bubble tea business that it recently acquired. The counter is currently trading at a11.8x FY13F P/E vs the peer average of 23.4x (as per Bloomberg consensus).
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Total turnover (CNYm) 571 693 1,247 1,753 1,707
Reported net profit (CNYm) 109 139 223 294 295Recurring net profit (CNYm) 109 139 223 294 295
Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 27.2 60.5 31.6 0.4
Core EPS (CNY) 0.10 0.13 0.21 0.27 0.24
DPS (CNY) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.18
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 5.9
Core P/E (x) 29.6 23.2 14.5 11.0 12.5
Return on average equity (%) 0.0 28.8 36.7 23.0 15.8
P/B (x) 7.81 5.84 4.86 1.71 2.02
P/CF (x) 22.9 na 17.3 18.9 12.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.8 16.9 10.1 5.5 7.8
Net debt to equity (%) 29.3 20.5 net cash net cash net cash
Our vs consensus EPS (%)
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
67
76
84
93
101
110
118
127
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
Oriental Watch (398 HK)P ri ce Cl os e R el at iv e t o Ha ng S en g In de x (R HS )
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
54
60
65
71
76
82
87
93
98
104
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.5
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
Tenfu Cayman Holdings (6868 HK)P ri ce Cl os e R el at iv e t o Ha ng S en g In de x (R HS )
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
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IndonesiaMalindo Feedmill (MAIN IJ, Buy, FV: IDR4,000); Market Cap: USD432m
MAIN is engaged in the growing domestic poultry industry, with its main productsbeing poultry feed (70% of sales), day old chicks (DOC) (19% of sales), and broilers(9% of sales). It has 8% share of the poultry feed market and 9% of the DOCsegments. It is also currently the third largest of poultry feed producers in Indonesia.
Two months ago, MAIN launched its processed food products (Sunny and ChickyWicky) which are sold in both modern markets (Indomaret and Lotte Mart) andgeneral trade. It is said that MAIN will not spend too much on advertising andpromotion for these new processed food products as they target the regional marketin Java, instead of nationally. These processed food products may contribute around5%-6% of consolidated sales in the next three-five years. To deal with higher rawmaterial costs due to the weakening Rupiah, MAIN has increased its selling price byIDR300/kg, hence partially passing on the higher cost. It expects to increase itsselling prices by IDR200/kg to fully pass on the costs increases. So far, the companyhas not seen any drop in chicken consumption.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Total turnover (IDRm) 2,036,519 2,634,461 3,349,567 4,088,201 4,885,138
Reported net profit (IDRm) 179,842 204,675 302,087 364,414 455,542
Recurring net profit (IDRm) 178,981 201,123 299,745 364,414 455,542
Recurring net profit growth (%) 141.9 12.4 49.0 21.6 25.0
Core EPS (IDR) 106 119 177 215 269
DPS (IDR) 25.2 23.0 25.0 44.4 55.5
Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.9
Core P/E (x) 27.5 24.4 16.4 13.5 10.8
Return on average equity (%) 94.9 60.0 54.5 43.9 39.5
P/B (x) 19.0 11.6 7.2 5.0 3.7
P/CF (x) 33.0 74.2 16.8 15.3 10.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.1 17.4 12.0 10.2 8.1
Net debt to equity (%) 133.2 120.0 85.2 88.8 47.4
Our vs consensus EPS (%) (10.0) (14.4) Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
Supra Boga Lestari (RANC IJ, Not Rated); Market Cap: USD68.7m
RANC is a leading lifestyle and healthy living retailer that retains customer loyalty byoffering a unique shopping experience, using its supermarket kitchen concept as acrucial traffic magnet. As at end-June, RANC managed a total of 19 stores and will,moving forward, focus on opening new stores in Greater Jakarta. Its operatingleverage will likely improve as the number of stores increases. Separately, it has afranchise agreement with Japans Ministop to develop a network of Ministopconvenience stores in Indonesia. It will open nine stores in 2H13, 20 in 2014 andanother 30 in 2015. It expects Ministopto break even on about two years after eachstore opens, with a payback period around 4-5 years. So far, RANC has not raised itsselling price despite escalating cost pressure. However, in the second-half, it plans toincrease selling prices by 17-20% to pass on the higher costs.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F
Total turnover ( IDRm) 890,353 1,076,915 1,399,989 1,679,987 2,015,984
Reported net profit (IDRm) 21,936 36,460 40,569 55,885 62,050
Recurring net profit (IDRm) 21,936 36,460 40,569 55,885 62,050
Recurring net profit growth (%) na 66.2 11.3 37.8 11.0
Core EPS (IDR) 14.0 23.3 25.9 35.7 39.7
DPS (IDR) 0.00 0.00 3.89 3.89 5.36
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 1.1
Core P/E (x) 35.7 21.5 19.3 14.0 12.6
Return on average equity (%) 25.3 13.7 10.8 13.3 13.2
P/B (x) 4.52 2.18 1.99 1.76 1.57
P/CF (x) 350 25 14 11 10
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.2 9.2 8.1 7.2 6.4
Net debt to equity (%) 37.5 net cash net cash net cash 2.1
Our vs consensus EPS (%) (19.1) (18.7) (31.0) Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
80
116
151
187
223
259
294
330
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Malindo Feedmill (MAIN IJ)Pri ce Close Relat i ve to Jakar ta Compos ite Index (RHS)
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
54
63
71
80
88
97
105
114
440
540
640
740
840
940
1,040
1,140
Supra Boga Lestari (RANC IJ)Pri ce Close Relat i ve to Jakar ta Compos ite Index (RHS)
2468
1012141618
20
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
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Indonesia (continued)Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food (AISA IJ, Not Rated); Market Cap: USD296m
AISAs three earnings growth drivers are basic foods, rice, and palm oil plantations. Ithas a solid position in the traditional trade via its dried noodles products Ayam 2Telor,and aims to strengthen its position in the modern trade segment as well. Thecompany has introduced a number of new products under its basic foods division,
such as Growiebiscuits, Gulascandies in jars, and a new variant of Taro snacks.After it acquired Tarofrom Unilever (UNVR, NR), AISA went on to acquire consumerfood brands/manufacturers such as Subafood Pangan, which produces Superiorpremium vermicelli. It is currently eyeing a healthy drink company which targets thechildrensmarket. In its rice business, AISA has consolidated its brands into a singleCap Ayam Jago brand,as well as introduced a new packaging design. It is set todouble its rice mills capacity by year-end to cater to the growing demand for qualityrice. It also plans to increase its planted area to 41k hectares by 2015, from 16k hacurrently.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Total turnover ( IDRm) 705,220 1,752,802 2,747,623 3,698,665 4,665,293
Reported net profit (IDRm) 75,235 126,906 211,197 277,892 289,096
Recurring net profit (IDRm) 67,621 130,530 184,762 254,223 265,426
Recurring net profit growth (%) 73.1 93.0 41.5 37.6 4.4
Core EPS (IDR) 23.1 44.6 63.1 86.9 90.7
Core P/E (x) 49.8 25.8 18.2 13.2 12.7
Return on average equity (%) 12.4 10.8 12.1 14.9 13.5
P/B (x) 5.84 1.90 1.95 1.68 1.47
P/CF (x) na 113 31 na 39
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.5 11.8 10.5 8.9 7.5
Net debt to equity (%) 171.2 44.9 63.8 82.6 89.1
Our vs consensus EPS (%) 14.0 (9.4) Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
Wismilak Inti Makmur (WIIM IJ, Buy, FV: IDR1,000); Market Cap:
USD120mEstablished in 1994, WIIM produces a variety of machine-made and hand-madecigarettes under several brands. Management told investors that the demand for itsDiplomat Mildcigarettes has been overwhelming, beating internal expectations. Theproduct, launched in Sept 2012, targets consumers within the 18-25 age group.Wismilak hopes that smokers in this segment will eventually uptrade to its premiumcigarettes, Wismilak Diplomat. Since 75% of the companys tobacco leafrequirements are sourced locally, a 1% depreciation in IDR is estimated to erode itsbottomline by 1.3%. it has guided for capex of IDR100bn/IDR80bn for FY13/FY14and FY13 A&P of 4.5% of sales vs last years 3.4%. Although profit margins are l ikelyto shrink next year, the nominal value should still grow y-o-y.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Total turnover (IDRm) 592,184 925,237 1,119,062 1,609,563 2,097,697Reported net profit (IDRm) 27,372 129,386 77,205 124,541 117,977
Recurring net profit (IDRm) 24,497 62,900 65,491 114,213 104,517
Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 156.8 4.1 74.4 (8.5)
Core EPS (IDR) 11.7 30.0 31.2 54.4 49.8
DPS (IDR) 0.0 45.3 34.3 55.3 52.4
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 7.0 5.3 8.5 8.1
Core P/E (x) 55.7 21.7 20.8 12.0 13.1
Return on average equity (%) 0.0 47.6 16.3 17.4 14.3
P/B (x) 5.36 4.72 2.08 1.75 1.57
P/CF (x) 46 na 103 44 na
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.1 14.9 11.0 6.9 8.5
Net debt to equity (%) 33.7 72.7 net cash net cash 16.8
Our vs consensus EPS (%) 0.0 0.0 Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
87
114
140
167
194
220
247
560
760
960
1,160
1,360
1,560
1,760
Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food (AISA IJ)Pri ce Close Relat i ve to Jakar ta Compos ite Index (RHS)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
95
101
107
113
119
125
131
137
143
149
155
590
640
690
740
790
840
890
940
990
1,040
1,090
Wismilak Inti Makmur Tbk PT (WIIM IJ)
Pri ce Close Relat i ve to Jakar ta Compos ite Index (RHS)
2040
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Dec-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
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MalaysiaAEON (AEON MK, Buy, FV: MYR16.2); Market Cap: USD1,501m
Formerly known as Jaya Jusco Stores, AEON was established in 1984 following acall from the Malaysian Government to modernize the countrys retail industry. Healthy sales growth at its existing and new outlets, as well as higher propertymanagement fees from its upcoming malls, is likely to shore up future earnings.
Management is positive that the group will achieve double digit earnings growth givena decent YTD same-store-sales growth of 5% and a better 2H due to festiveseasons. We expect the group to open 7-8 new malls from FY13-15. It will open anew mall in Kulai, Johor, with a net lettable area (NLA) of around 457k sq ft by end-2013. The three confirmed new malls in the pipeline for FY14 are in Bukit Mertajam(~600k sqft), Klebang (-500k sqft), and Taiping (~400k). It introduced a private brand,Top Valu, to replace the existing in-house brand, Jusco Selection. The group is alsogrowing other businesses besides retail eg pharmacy, with opening of AEONWellness, and electrical appliances with AEONelectrical stores. We continue to likeAEONs solid fundamentals, strong branding and aggressive expansion.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Total turnover (MYRm) 2,894 2,985 3,256 3,766 4,039
Reported net profit (MYRm) 166 186 212 247 266
Recurring net profit (MYRm) 166 175 212 247 266
Recurring net profit growth (%) 24.1 5.8 21.3 16.4 7.4
Core EPS (MYR) 0.47 0.50 0.61 0.70 0.76
DPS (MYR) (0.16) (0.19) (0.23) (0.27) 0.29
Dividend Yield (%) (1.1) (1.3) (1.6) (1.9) 2.0
Core P/E (x) 29.8 28.2 23.3 20.0 18.6
Return on average equity (%) 15.7 15.4 15.4 16.2 15.9
P/B (x) 4.39 3.84 3.36 3.12 2.82
P/CF (x) 13.4 13.8 11.9 6.9 9.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.9 11.6 9.9 7.6 6.9
Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Our vs consensus EPS (%) (0.3) (1.1) Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
Brahims Holdings (BRAH MK, Not Rated); Market Cap: USD84.2m
Brahims is Malaysias leading halalinflight catering company through wholly-ownedBrahims-LSG Sky Chefs (BLSG), which in turn owns 70% of LSG Sky Chefs-Brahims (LSGB). In February, BLSG and LSGB were renamed Brahims AirlineCatering Holdings (BACH) and Brahims Airline Catering SB respectively. As five newairlines initiated flights to KLIA in 1H2013, Brahims Airline Caterings clients nowinclude Air France, Turkish Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, Philippines and Nas Air. It plansto declare maiden dividend of 0.5 sen in FY13. As Brahims continues to expand, wesee the possibility of more asset injections ahead. The potential candidates are: i)Dewina Food Industries SB, which manufactures Brahimssauces and ready-to-eatmeals, and ii) Desatera SB, which has a 15-year military catering contract expiring in2026. Both companies are under Dewina Holdings, which is privately owned by
Brahims major shareholder, Datuk Ibrahim bin Haji Ahmad. We expect the potentialdealsto enlarge its halalfood empire should they materialize.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Total turnover (MYRm) 108 157 166 186 197
Reported net profit (MYRm) (4.10) 2.38 6.55 9.50 8.66
Recurring net profit (MYRm) (4.10) 2.38 6.55 9.50 8.66
Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 na 175.2 45.0 (8.9)
Core EPS (MYR) (0.02) 0.01 0.03 0.04 0.04
Core P/E (x) na 116 42 29 32
Return on average equity (%) 0.0 1.6 4.1 5.7 4.5
P/B (x) 1.84 1.79 1.71 1.62 1.28
P/CF (x) na 11.4 9.9 9.6 19.8
EV/EBITDA (x) na na na na na
Net debt to equity (%) 54.3 43.7 26.2 21.7 8.3
Our vs consensus EPS (%)
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
93
101
109
117
125
133
141
149
157
165
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
AEON ( AEON MK)Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS)
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
70
78
85
93
100
108
115
123
130
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
Brahims Holdings (BRAH MK)Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS)
1
2
3
4
5
67
8
9
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
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Malaysia (continued)Daibochi (DPP MK, Neutral, FV: MYR3.53); Market Cap: USD114m
Founded in 1972, Daibochi is a leading flexible packaging solutions provider forglobally-renowned clients in the F&B and FMCG industries. Listed in Oct 1990, thegroup has a strong MNC-focused clientele including Nestle, Kraft, BAT and PepsiCo.The construction of its new factory at Melaka is due for completion by Sept 2013 and
new machineries will be put into place by 4QFY13. Management, which expects toboost production capacity by 20%, has budgeted for capex of MYR35m. It also seesgood response from customers for its new 2-layer film product. We understand it is acheaper alternative to the conventional 4-layer film, but with the same functionality.Daibochi is the first in the industry to develop and test this products commercial use;production will commence in 3QFY13. Management is looking to generate MYR30mmore in revenue from PepsiCo next year by riding on the latters new product lines inThailand.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Total turnover (MYRm) 268 284 279 313 348
Reported net profit (MYRm) 18.2 20.1 24.6 29.3 33.6
Recurring net profit (MYRm) 18.2 20.1 24.6 29.3 33.6
Recurring net profit growth (%) (20.1) 10.4 22.7 19.1 14.4
Core EPS (MYR) 0.16 0.18 0.22 0.26 0.29
DPS (MYR) 0.08 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.18
Dividend Yield (%) 2.5 2.7 4.0 4.8 5.5
Core P/E (x) 20.7 18.7 15.3 12.8 11.2
Return on average equity (%) 14.3 14.8 17.0 18.8 19.9
P/B (x) 2.86 2.68 2.50 2.33 2.15
P/CF (x) 43.1 10.8 9.4 6.7 7.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.81 6.47 4.87 4.05 3.66
Net debt to equity (%) 15.0 14.0 13.3 6.5 7.4
Our vs consensus EPS (%) 3.9 4.1 Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
QL Resources (QLG MK, Buy, FV: MYR4.20); Market Cap: USD880m
QL has evolved from a livestock feed trading company with a small fishery into asuccessful marine and poultry egg producer with a fast-growing palm oil business.The groups future growth will be fuelled by aggressive expansion in its marineproduction, integrated poultry and palm oil divisions in Indonesia. It is investing inmarine white prawn aquaculture in Kudat, which is slated to be ready by 4QFY15.The group is also looking for opportunities to venture into surimi-based products inIndonesia in order to tap into a relatively untouched market. It is building a feedmillwith a capacity of 20k tonnes per month in Indonesia to extend the value chain aswell as lower feed cost. The plant is targeted for completion by 4QFY15. We believethat the groups Indonesian operation will boost its future earnings given theaggressive expansion in its marine production, integrated poultry and palm oildivisions.
Forecasts and Valuations Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14F Mar-15F
Total turnover (MYRm) 1,777 1,947 2,147 2,286 2,482
Reported net profit (MYRm) 124 131 132 168 189
Recurring net profit (MYRm) 124 131 132 168 189
Recurring net profit growth (%) 17.0 5.5 0.6 27.1 12.6
Core EPS (MYR) 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.20 0.23
DPS (MYR) 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06
Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.8
Core P/E (x) 23.3 22.0 21.9 17.2 15.3
Return on average equity (%) 20.1 17.0 15.5 17.5 17.2
P/B (x) 3.93 3.57 3.25 2.81 2.48
P/CF (x) 24.1 17.6 26.7 10.5 12.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.8 14.0 13.7 10.8 9.7
Net debt to equity (%) 47.1 56.2 71.5 29.5 29.8
Our vs consensus EPS (%) 0.4 (1.1) Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
90
97
104
111
118
125
132
139
146
153
160
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.0
Daibochi (DPP MK)Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS)
1
1
2
2
3
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
86
89
92
94
97
100
103
105
108
111
2.8
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
QL Resources (QLG MK)Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS)
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
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7/14
10 September 2013
See important disclosures at the end of this report 7
Philippines
Jollibee Foods (JFC PM, Not Rated); Market Cap: USD3,911m
JFC is the Philippines largest fast food chain operator, commanding a ~60% marketshare with 2,102 outlets. It achieved a 10-year profit CAGR of 14% to PHP3.7bn inFY12 owing to brand acquisitions, store expansions and widening margins. 1H13earnings surged 33% y-o-y to PHP2.1bn. JFC aims for 5% sustainable SSSG (samestore sales growth), but exceeded this target recently due to good response for itsnewly launched products. In general, the company aims to introduce a new productevery quarter and will discontinue slow-moving items, resulting in constant number ofstock keeping units (SKU). JFC believes that its annual expansion pace of 200 newstores is sustainable, given that the companyspresence is only in 200 out of the 300addressable cities. In China, JFC now sees less new openings, due to slowingconsumption growth there. The companysoverseas strategy is to buy into local fastfood brands, especially those serving traditional cuisines, in markets like China andVietnam. Typically the company pays around 12.0x-15.0x P/E for its acquisition, areasonable valuation that can be achieved due to existing business operator retaininga certain level of ownership.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Total turnover (PHPm) 43,892 47,958 53,372 62,555 71,059
Reported net profit (PHPm) 2,319 2,665 3,198 3,232 3,728
Recurring net profit (PHPm) 2,319 2,665 3,198 3,232 3,728
Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 14.9 20.0 1.0 15.4
Core EPS (PHP) 2.21 2.54 3.05 3.08 3.56
DPS (PHP) 0.00 0.83 2.20 1.05 2.19
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 1.3
Core P/E (x) 74.5 64.9 54.1 53.5 46.4
Return on average equity (%) 0.0 17.5 19.2 17.7 18.3
P/B (x) 12.2 10.6 10.2 8.9 8.2
P/CF (x) 40.1 28.5 29.0 67.5 24.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 39.1 32.1 31.0 27.4 24.5
Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Our vs consensus EPS (%)
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
Puregold Price Club (PGOLD PM, Not Rated); Market Cap: USD2,454m
PGOLD is the Philippines second-largest grocer with 192 stores. It delivered animpressive 114% profit CAGR in 2008-2012 on the back of a 32% revenue CAGR,driven by store expansion and M&As, as well as margin gains from economies ofscale. Profit jumped 72% y-o-y to PHP1.8bn in 1H13. Fresh items make up 15% ofrevenue and are on consignment basis, thus, there is no inventory risk to thecompany. To support its growth, PGOLD is exploring the viability of adding its firstdistribution centre. The company has a presence in 88 cities currently and hasidentified close to 500 cities that it can address in the Philippines. It targets a 30% y-o-y topline growth in FY13, from: i) 36 new stores this year, ii) full-year operations of31 Puregold stores that opened in 2012, iii) ~1%-plus like-for-like net sales growth,
and iv) newly acquired stores. It also aims for 0.4ppt gain in net margin to 5.1%.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Total turnover (PHPm) 18,842 24,112 29,108 38,988 57,467
Reported net profit (PHPm) 129 131 510 1,545 2,718
Recurring net profit (PHPm) 129 131 510 1,545 2,718
Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 1.5 288.4 202.7 75.9
Core EPS (PHP) 0.05 0.05 0.18 0.56 0.98
DPS (PHP) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.34
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
Core P/E (x) 839 826 213 70 40
Return on average equity (%) 0.0 11.0 30.8 27.2 14.8
P/B (x) 95.8 85.8 53.0 11.7 3.9
P/CF (x) na na 18 630 45
EV/EBITDA (x) na na 225 67 38
Net debt to equity (%) 266.0 393.3 12.4 net cash net cash
Our vs consensus EPS (%)
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
84
93
102
111
120
129
138
147
156
165
174
86
96
106
116
126
136
146
156
166
176
186
Jollibee Foods (JFC PM)Price Close Relative to Phil ippines Stock Exchange PSEi (RHS)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
78
83
88
93
98
103
108
113
118
123
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
43
45
Puregold Price Club (PGOLD PM)Price Close Relative to Phil ippines Stock Exchange PSEi (RHS)
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
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See important disclosures at the end of this report 8
SingaporeDel Monte Pacific (DELM SP, Not Rated); Market Cap: USD821m
DELM is the rights-holder of the Del Monte and S&W brands in selected regions. Itachieved an average profit growth of 40% in 2009-2012, and is set to benefit frombetter sales and supply terms. The Philippines account for 80% of operating profit,and DELM is a dominant market leader, with at least 70% share in the canned
pineapple, mixed fruits, ready-to-drink (RTD) juices and tomato sauce segments.Growth will be backed by higher F&B consumption in Asia and the Philippines, aswell as renegotiated terms of several contracts. Specifically, the latter refers to theexpiry of Del Monte Foods Cos processed pineapple supply contract in the US inNov 2014, and a change in market pricing for Fresh Del Monte Produces pineapplesupply contract in Jan 2015, as well as the expiry of a toll packing contract in thePhilippines. Positives from the first contract include a possible 10-15ppt gain in GPMdue to unfavourable terms previously, while the market pricing mechanism for thesecond contact could potentially add an additional USD3m-4m to annual profit.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Total turnover (USDm) 381 331 379 425 460
Reported net profit (USDm) 37.0 11.3 15.8 27.4 32.1
Recurring net profit (USDm) 37.0 11.3 15.8 27.4 32.1
Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 (69.4) 39.5 73.6 16.9
Core EPS (USD) 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
DPS (USD) 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 1.0 1.5 2.5 2.9
Core P/E (x) 22.2 72.4 51.9 29.9 25.6
Return on average equity (%) 0.0 5.6 7.5 12.1 13.2
P/B (x) 4.01 4.17 3.70 3.56 3.22
P/CF (x) 12.9 10.9 na 23.2 97.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.3 24.7 21.7 15.7 14.2
Net debt to equity (%) 31.2 18.4 39.0 39.3 46.2
Our vs consensus EPS (%)
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
Eu Yan Sang (EYSAN SP, Buy, FV: SGD0.92); Market Cap: USD262mEYSAN is a family-controlled traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) retailer and also theleading TCM player in South-East Asia. Its core markets are Hong Kong, Singaporeand Malaysia. Among its new initiatives are: i) venturing into Australia via theacquisition of HealthyLife Australias largest health food chain, ii) forming a JV tobuild a herbs-slicing plant in China, iii) building a new Hong Kong plant that will tripleits current capacity, and iv) collaborating with F&B giants such as Nestle to launchproducts with TCM herbs like American Ginseng. In view of escalating rental costs,the group will focus on growing its wholesale business, which contributed 14.6% to itsFY13 revenue. Going forward, management expects this segment to grow by at least25% per annum, underpinned by the acquisition of new wholesale customers. Withregards to its loss-making Australian business, management expects the losses tonarrow to SGD4m in FY14 (FY13: SGD9m losses) as EYSAN opens more self-operated outlets. The group aims to achieve breakeven for this business by FY15,
when number of self-operated outlets hits 40.Forecasts and Valuations Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14F
Total turnover (SGDm) 245 266 290 327 364
Reported net profit (SGDm) 19.2 25.3 16.3 18.1 20.2
Recurring net profit (SGDm) 19.2 22.6 18.2 14.8 20.2
Recurring net profit growth (%) 47.0 17.9 (19.5) (18.9) 36.9
Core EPS (SGD) 0.04 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.05
DPS (SGD) 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02
Dividend Yield (%) 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.3
Core P/E (x) 17.3 14.7 18.2 22.5 16.4
Return on average equity (%) 19.0 22.0 12.7 12.8 13.1
P/B (x) 3.06 2.73 2.46 2.22 2.09
P/CF (x) 14.2 10.5 66.5 15.2 16.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.9 9.3 12.6 13.4 11.2Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash 31.2 41.4 48.6
Our vs consensus EPS (%) (2.8) Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
81
104
127
150
172
195
218
241
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP)P ri ce C lo se R el at iv e t o S tr ai ts Ti me s In de x (R HS )
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
78
84
89
95
101
107
112
118
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
0.80
0.85
Eu Yan Sang (EYSAN SP)P ri ce C lo se R el at iv e t o S tr ai ts Ti me s In de x (R HS )
246
8101214161820
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
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10 September 2013
See important disclosures at the end of this report 9
Singapore (continued)Parkson Retail Asia (PRA SP, Neutral, FV: SGD1.28); Market Cap:USD650m
PRA is a Pan-Asean department store operator with a presence in Malaysia,Vietnam, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Myanmar. It achieved an impressive historical58% three-year profit CAGR to SGD46m in FY12, driven by new stores and margin
gains. However, earnings took a dip in FY13 on start-up losses and weak traffic inMalaysia during the election period. As at 31 Jul 2013, PRA has 57 stores and plansto open 10 new ones in FY14 five will be in Indonesia, two in Vietnam and amaiden store in Cambodia. The group is bullish on its prospects in Indonesia, and isguiding for SSSG of 7-9% in FY14. For Vietnam, PRA has guided for SSSG of 5%.Margins are expected to be under pressure, mainly due to start-up costs for newstores. The Group also expects to scale up its Myanmar operations over the nextthree years.
Forecasts and Valuations Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14F
Total turnover (SGDm) 333 367 433 446 507
Reported net profit (SGDm) 21.4 35.0 45.5 37.9 41.1
Recurring net profit (SGDm) 21.4 35.0 46.9 37.9 41.1
Recurring net profit growth (%) 87.0 63.8 34.1 (19.2) 8.5
Core EPS (SGD) 0.03 0.05 0.07 0.06 0.06
DPS (SGD) 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.2 2.4
Core P/E (x) 38.7 23.6 17.6 21.8 20.1
Return on average equity (%) 16.6 26.6 25.2 15.4 15.6
P/B (x) 5.89 6.70 3.47 3.26 3.00
P/CF (x) 24.4 22.6 15.9 22.4 11.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.5 8.7 6.6 6.4 6.1
Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Our vs consensus EPS (%) (32.5) Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
Petra Foods (PETRA SP, Not Rated); Market Cap: USD1,730m
An Asean chocolate confectionery founded in the 1950s, Petra owns a portfolio ofheritage brands, eg SilverQueen in Indonesia and Goya in the Philippines twocountries where it holds a ~60% and ~10% market share respectively. The companyis a key beneficiary of the regions rising chocolate intake, with profit growing by a29% 5-year CAGR to USD55.0m in FY12. Petra introduces about 20 new productsannuallymainly extensions to existing brands to tap on opportunities, especiallyin the premium segment, thus capitalising on increasing consumer affluence. Thesuccess rate of its new products is about 80%. Following the divestment of its cocoaingredient business (completed in June 2013), Petra is now a pure brandedchocolate confectionery company. 1H13 profits from continuing operations increased13% y-o-y to USD29m, driven by a 6% growth in revenue and a 2.3ppt gain in GPMto 32.7%.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Total turnover (USDm) 1,127 1,244 1,566 420 478
Reported net profit (USDm) 14.1 24.6 44.5 60.6 25.9
Recurring net profit (USDm) 14.1 24.6 44.5 39.4 54.6
Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 75.1 80.6 (11.5) 38.6
Core EPS (USD) 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.06 0.09
DPS (USD) 0.00 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.4
Core P/E (x) 123 70 39 44 32
Return on average equity (%) 0.0 12.6 17.7 20.5 8.3
P/B (x) 9.43 8.33 5.88 5.83 5.28
P/CF (x) 68.2 na na 22.6 na
EV/EBITDA (x) 51.6 36.9 21.9 36.2 25.5
Net debt to equity (%) 149.6 201.7 172.2 169.1 120.0
Our vs consensus EPS (%)
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
1.10
1.20
1.30
1.40
1.50
1.60
1.70
1.80
Parkson Retail Asia (PRA SP)P ri ce C lo se R el at iv e t o S tr ai ts Ti me s In de x (R HS )
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
88
106
124
142
160
2.1
2.6
3.1
3.6
4.1
4.6
Petra Foods ( PETRA SP)P ri ce C lo se R el at iv e t o S tr ai ts Ti me s In de x (R HS )
1
1
2
2
3
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
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10 September 2013
See important disclosures at the end of this report 10
Singapore (continued)Sheng Siong (SSG SP, Buy, FV: SGD0.78); Market Cap: USD724m
SSG is Singapores third-largest grocer, catering to the budget segment. It started itsfirst store in Ang Mo Kio town in 1985 and has since expanded its retail network to 33outlets across the country. Between 2008 and 2012, earnings grew at a 12% CAGRto SGD33m, boosted by an annual 5% expansion in retail area, and margin gains on
better product mix and direct purchases. Singapores grocery sector is highlycompetitive, especially in the budget segment, and SSG recently saw one of itscompetitors retreating from this space via a rebranding exercise. Its 23.2% GPM waslifted by the groups focus on increasing direct and bulk purchases, improving itsfresh produce mix and growing profitability of new stores that commenced operationsin 2H12.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Total turnover (SGDm) 628 578 637 685 740
Reported net profit (SGDm) 42.6 27.3 41.7 36.9 41.4
Recurring net profit (SGDm) 33.1 27.3 32.5 36.9 41.4
Recurring net profit growth (%) 9.5 (17.6) 19.4 13.4 12.2
Core EPS (SGD) 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03
DPS (SGD) 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.03
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 4.2 3.7 4.1
Core P/E (x) 27.8 33.8 28.3 24.9 22.2
Return on average equity (%) 48.0 25.7 27.8 24.2 26.8
P/B (x) 14.4 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9
P/CF (x) 6.4 64.2 28.7 21.2 19.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 22.5 21.5 18.5 16.8 15.0
Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Our vs consensus EPS (%) (8.0) (6.5) Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
Sino Grandness (SFGI SP, Buy, FV: SGD1.74); Market Cap: USD281m
SFGI started out exporting canned vegetables. Subsequently, it ventured into the
canned fruits and beverages business in China, under the Garden Fresh label. Itsbeverage business is doing so well that it has overtaken the canned food businesswithin three years, and the former currently accounts for 60% of the groups overallbusiness. SFGI maintains its plans to list its beverage business under the GardenFreshbrand by Oct 2014, and expects to announce an update on this within the nexttwo months. There has been a change in the product mix for its fruit juices. SFGIlaunched its mixed juice drinks in 1H13, which contain lower fruit juice content, andthese juices are proving to be very popular, especially during the current hot weatherin China. However, margins for these products are lower. SFGIs strategy is to besynonymous with the loquat fruit. Hence, it plans to continue to expand its loquatbeverage products and targets to introduce 1-2 new SKUs of Garden Fresh juicesannually.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Total turnover (CNYm) 645 1,020 1,640 2,225 2,573
Reported net profit (CNYm) 117 152 290 387 458
Recurring net profit (CNYm) 117 152 290 387 458
Recurring net profit growth (%) 48.6 29.4 91.2 33.7 18.2
Core EPS (CNY) 0.44 0.57 1.04 1.32 1.56
Core P/E (x) 13.2 10.2 5.6 4.4 3.8
Return on average equity (%) 33.9 31.3 41.4 37.3 31.3
P/B (x) 3.73 2.79 2.04 1.40 1.02
P/CF (x) 20 118 11 7 5
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.1 7.8 4.3 3.3 2.5
Net debt to equity (%) 1.8 19.7 21.2 9.1 net cash
Our vs consensus EPS (%) 0.0 0.0 Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
91
100
108
117
125
134
142
151
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
Sheng Siong (SSG SP)P ri ce C lo se R el at iv e t o S tr ai ts Ti me s In de x (R HS )
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
73
116
159
202
244
287
330
373
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
Sino Grandness (SFGI SP)P ri ce C lo se R el at iv e t o S tr ai ts Ti me s In de x (R HS )
2468
101214161820
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
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See important disclosures at the end of this report 11
Singapore (continued)Thai Beverage (THBEV SP, Not Rated); Market Cap: USD9,874m
THBEV is the largest beverage producer in Thailand, with an established portfolio ofproducts in spirits, beer and RTD green tea, for which it commands market shares ofmore than 80%, 30% and 50% respectively. Its key brands include RuangKhao(spirits), Chang (beer) and Oishi (RTD green tea). Its non-alcoholic division, which
contributes 13% of total revenue, slipped into a THB750m loss in 1H13 vs aTHB885m profit a year ago. This was due to the expiry of its Pepsicontract in Nov2012 and intense competition in the RTD green tea segment. In terms of outlook, thespirits business will see some normalisation this year after last years high baseeffect, which resulted from raising prices to offset Aug 2012s increase in excisetaxes. Similarly, efforts to grow and turnaround its beer business is ongoing, withprice increases and marketing activities. THBEVs regional expansion will beexecuted with the additional reach of F&N (FNN SP, Not Rated) s regional network.For mismatched asset-liability and currency risk, the company revealed that itsSGD4.4bn foreign debt (for buying F&N) will decline to around SGD3.0bn afterTHBEV pays down debt by THB1.4bn in 3Q13. With plans for F&N to issue a REIT,its foreign debt will likely be further reduced going forward.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Total turnover (THBm) 105,452 107,969 121,361 132,187 161,044
Reported net profit (THBm) 10,342 10,566 10,612 12,028 28,493
Recurring net profit (THBm) 10,342 10,566 10,612 12,188 16,828
Recurring net profit growth (%) 0.0 2.2 0.4 14.9 38.1
Core EPS (THB) 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.49 0.67
DPS (THB) 0.00 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.42
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.3
Core P/E (x) 30.7 30.1 30.0 26.1 18.9
Return on average equity (%) 0.0 19.2 18.8 20.7 40.4
P/B (x) 5.91 5.66 5.62 5.32 3.91
P/CF (x) 16.6 18.9 21.3 32.7 16.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.8 16.7 16.9 16.9 16.1
Net debt to equity (%) 28.5 16.6 10.6 23.4 117.2
Our vs consensus EPS (%)
Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
87
100
114
127
140
154
167
180
194
207
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
0.60
0.65
0.70
0.75
Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)P ri ce C lo se R el at iv e t o S tr ai ts Ti me s In de x (R HS )
50
100
150
200
250
300
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
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See important disclosures at the end of this report 12
Thailand
Nok Airlines (NOK TB, Buy, FV: THB37.6); Market Cap: USD402m
NOK is one of Thailands leading low-cost carriers and has the most extensivedomestic route coverage. It operates out of two hubsChiang Mai and Don Mueang.It has been noted that Thailands rising per capita income and growing urbanisationwill be conducive for long-term air travel growth. In addition, 90% of NOKspassengers are Thai nationals; hence, it is very dependent on domestic travel.However, the airline is currently working on developing international routes tocountries like Myanmar and China over the next two years. Thus, NOKs revenue isexpected to grow strongly from FY13-FY15 in tandem with this route expansion,which will be bolstered by the delivery of new aircraft, as well as optimised seatconfigurations, new routes and higher aircraft utilisation rates. With a lower projectedvariable unit cost, arising from improved operating efficiency, as well as greatereconomies of scale, we expect NOK to record superior core earnings growth of 86%y-o-y for FY13.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F
Total turnover (THBm) 6,039 8,218 11,719 15,272 19,498
Reported net profit (THBm) 200 505 1,413 1,801 2,536
Recurring net profit (THBm) 198 760 1,413 1,801 2,536Recurring net profit growth (%) (67.3) 284.5 85.9 27.4 40.8
Core EPS (THB) 0.40 1.52 2.51 2.88 4.06
DPS (THB) 0.23 1.10 1.13 1.44 2.03
Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 5.3 5.5 7.0 9.8
Core P/E (x) 52.4 13.6 8.2 7.2 5.1
Return on average equity (%) 26.0 59.9 46.0 27.7 26.8
P/B (x) 13.0 11.7 2.5 1.7 1.2
P/CF (x) 32.3 12.3 7.3 6.7 4.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 30.0 11.0 4.1 2.6 1.1
Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash
Our vs consensus EPS (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
Oishi Group (OISHI TB, Neutral, FV: THB130); Market Cap: USD524m
Oishi, a THBEV subsidiary, operates two main business segments: i) a Japanesefood franchise, and ii) non-alcoholic beverages under the well-recognised Oishibrand. The ratio of its beverages vs food segments stands at 55:45 in terms of salescontribution, and 75%:25% in terms of net profit contribution. As part of the valuechain of THBEV, Oishi expects to undertake a major overhaul for its marketing andgrowth strategy for both its food and green tea businesses. For its Japaneserestaurant food businesswhich contributes ~45% to revenue and >60% of net profit its performance should be even better going forward with a 5-yr growth target of25%. Among Oishis nine brands of Japanese restaurants, its growth target will befocuses on its niche Shabushi brand, which currently contributes >50% to its foodbusinesses revenue and net profit. Meanwhile, its green tea drink business still facesintense competition, and the company needs to spend on more marketing campaigns
and promotions to counter its main rival Ichiton in order to maintain market share.However, going forward, Oishis distribution channel will be re-arranged by leveragingmore on traditional trade and additional use of THBEVs national and internationalnetwork.
Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F
Total turnover (THBm) 8,733 9,501 11,634 14,322 17,521
Reported net profit (THBm) 975 808 654 637 756
Recurring net profit (THBm) 965 810 660 637 756
Recurring net profit growth (%) 28.5 (16.1) (18.5) (3.4) 18.7
Core EPS (THB) 5.15 4.32 3.52 3.40 4.03
Core P/E (x) 17.5 20.8 25.6 26.5 22.3
Return on average equity (%) 38.9 28.9 21.7 19.8 21.1
P/B (x) 6.29 5.81 5.41 5.11 4.36
P/CF (x) 14.0 13.0 10.4 7.7 6.9EV/EBITDA (x) 12.2 14.0 16.9 15.8 13.5
Net debt to equity (%) 11.9 41.0 87.3 70.2 55.8
Our vs consensus EPS (%) 0.0 0.0 Source: Company data, OSK-DMG estimates
73
79
84
90
96
102
107
113
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
Nok Airlines (NOK TB)Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jun-13
Jul-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
27
37
47
57
67
77
87
97
107
117
71
91
111
131
151
171
191
211
231
251
Oishi Group (OISHI TB)Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)
111
11222
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Volm
Source: Bloomberg
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See important disclosures at the end of this report 13
Special thanks
We would like to express special thanks to the following who have played an integralpart in making our first Consumer Day possible: i) corporate managements andinstitutional clients that graced the event; ii) the research and institutional sales teamsfrom our offices in Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and, in particular,Singapore for hosting the event; iii) the CIBS team; iv) the editorial team, and v)those whom we may have unintentionally left out. Thank you.
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DMG & Partners Research Guide to Investment Ratings
Buy:Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 monthsTrading Buy:Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertainNeutral:Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 monthsTake Profit:Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levelsSell:Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 monthsNot Rated:Stock is not within regular research coverage
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This research is issued by DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd and it is for general distribution only. It does not have any regard to the specific investmentobjectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific recipient of this research report. You should independently evaluate particularinvestments and consult an independent financial adviser before making any investments or entering into any transaction in relation to any securities orinvestment instruments mentioned in this report.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources we believed to be reliable but we do not make any representation or warranty noraccept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and views expressed in this report are subject to changewithout notice.
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DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd is a wholly-owned subsidiary of DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd, a joint venture between OSK Investment Bank
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DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and their associates, directors, and/or employees may have positions in, and may effect transactions in the securitiescovered in the report, and may also perform or seek to perform broking and other corporate finance related services for the corporations whose securitiesare covered in the report. This report is therefore classified as a non-independent report.
As of 9 September 2013, DMG & Partners Securities Pte Ltd and its subsidiaries, including DMG & Partners Research Pte Ltd, do not have proprietarypositions in the subject companies, except for:a) -
As of 9 September 2013, none of the analysts who covered the stock in this report has an interest in the subject companies covered in this report, exceptfor:a) -
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