Hi.$Today$Im$going$to$walk$you$though$some$of$my$thoughts$on$how$to$make$lightweight$experience$probes$to$test$hypotheses$about$what$poten=al$customers$and$users$value$in$a$connected$hardware$experience,$without$making$any$hardware,$and$while$itera=ng$rapidly.$Ive$divided$the$workshop$into$three$parts:$an$introduc=on$where$I$talk$about$how$I$got$to$developing$this$technique.$Some$background$on$the$technique,$and$then$the$technique$itself,$where$youll$get$to$try$out$a$couple$of$key$pieces.$I$would$also$like$to$issue$a$disclaimer$up$front:$This$is$the$rst$=me$Ive$put$most$of$this$material$down,$and$I$havent$had$a$chance$to$test$run$this$workshop,$so$theres$bound$to$be$plenty$of$holes$and$rough$edges$in$the$method.$Given$that$Im$advoca=ng$lightweight$itera=ve$prototyping,$I$ra=onalize$this$as$OK,$that$this$is$an$opportunity$for$you$and$me$to$coHcreate$these$ideas.$Thus,$please$ask$ques=ons$and$suggest$other$ways$of$doing$things.$When$it$comes$=me$for$the$handsHon$sec=on,$feel$free$to$experiment.$Im$saving$some$=me$at$the$end$to$talk$about$how$to$make$this$approach$beJer,$or$if$it$even$works$at$all.$

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Let me begin by telling you a bit about my background. Im a user experience designer. I was one of the first professional Web designers. This is the navigation for a hot sauce shopping site I designed in the spring of 1994.

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Ive$also$worked$on$the$user$experience$design$of$a$lot$of$consumer$electronics$products$from$companies$youve$probably$heard$of.$

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I$wrote$a$couple$of$books$based$on$my$experience$as$a$designer.$One$is$a$cookbook$of$user$research$methods,$and$the$second$describes$what$I$think$are$some$of$the$core$concerns$when$designing$networked$computa=onal$devices.$

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I$also$started$a$couple$of$companies.$The$rst,$Adap=ve$Path,$was$primarily$focused$on$the$web,$and$with$the$second$one,$ThingM,$I$got$deep$into$developing$hardware.$

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Today$I$work$for$PARC,$the$famous$research$lab,$as$a$principal$in$its$Innova=on$Services$group.$We$help$companies$reduce$the$risk$of$adop=ng$novel$technologies$using$a$mix$of$ethnographic$research,$user$experience$design$and$innova=on$strategy.$We$do$everything$from$coaching$teams$inside$companies$to$developing$novel$products.$

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How$do$you$know$whether$there's$a$market$for$something,$that$people$will$want$it$and$use$it,$without$building$it?$

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One$of$the$biggest$ques=ons$that$our$clients$have,$and$frankly$we$have,$is$how$to$know$if$a$new$hardware$product$or$service$is$going$to$be$successful$without$actually$going$through$the$expense$of$developing$a$nished$device$and$building$out$a$cloud$service$to$support$it.$Thats$incredibly$expensive$and$=meHconsuming.$On$the$other$hand,$no$one$in$an$interview$or$a$focus$group$is$going$to$tell$you$that$theyd$like$a$WiHconnected$speaker$that$listens$to$you$all$the$=me$and$tries$to$predict$what$kind$of$music$youre$going$to$want$to$hear$next$or$what$kind$of$thing$youre$going$to$want$to$buy,$and$if$they$do$you$probably$wont$listen.$The$reason$Amazon$can$go$ahead$and$make$a$complete$product$like$this,$is$that$they$have$very$deep$pockets$and$they$can$loose$money$for$a$long$=me$learning$how$to$t$a$product$and$its$service$to$a$market.$but$most$other$projects$have$Indiegogo$and$hunches$at$best.$$Take$the$ninja$sphere$from$the$Ninja$Blocks$folks.$They$had$a$super$successful$Kickstarter$for$their$MakerHoriented$products,$and$for$their$second$thing$they$decided$to$go$with$a$consumer$product.$But$consumer$products$are$really$hard,$and$if$you$dont$get$all$the$nuances$right,$the$manufacturing,$the$design,$the$service,$the$=ming$$and$the$nances$required$to$employ$all$the$people$who$make$that$happen,$you$dont$get$the$volumes$that$you$need$to$create$a$sustainable$business,$and$thats$what$happened$to$them.$Theyre$barely$going$to$get$the$rst$run$made$for$their$backers$and$then$theyre$going$to$shut$down.$

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So]ware$used$to$be$a$physical$product,$too,$with$the$same$kinds$of$linear$waterfall$manufacturing$and$distribu=on$dynamics$

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but$the$Internet$fundamentally$changed$the$way$that$so]ware$is$deployed,$and$now$there$is$a$robust$ecosystem$to$quickly$design,$develop$and$deploy$so]ware,$websites$and$apps$to$test$product$market$t.$The$Web$and$app$stacks$are$tailored$around$tools$for$rapidly$evalua=ng$how$well$products$work$and$whether$they$t$the$needs$and$behaviors$of$their$market.$

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No$such$ecosystem$exists$for$hardware.$The$best$we$get$is$this$(arduino)$and$this$(Kickstarter).$Crowdfunding$is$essen=ally$only$a$very$crude$tool$for$evalua=ng$the$desirability$of$an$idea,$and$its$a$preJy$messy$tool$where$theres$very$liJle$clear$signal.$

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This$means$that$the$classic$Lean$Startup$model$doesnt$work$for$hardware.$If$you$try$it$for$a$physical$product,$you$realize$that$it$is$based$on$Internet$and$so]ware$assump=ons$that$just$dont$apply$to$todays$hardware$manufacturing$ecosystem.$For$example,$maybe$you$can$cobble$together$an$MVP$with$an$Arduino$on$a$breadboard$and$a$3D$printed$plas=c$enclosure,$but$you$s=ll$cant$deploy$it$quickly$or$get$accurate$feedback$about$it$to$measure$usage.$The$barrier$to$gegng$past$the$very$rst$part$of$the$very$rst$itera=on$is$enormous.$

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Physical$product$design$is$s=ll$very$much$a$slow,$old$waterfall$development$model.$A]er$20$years$dismantling$it$in$so]ware,$hardware$today$is$worse$than$so]ware$ever$was.$Product$design$is$actually$LESS$agile$than$the$LEAST$agile$so]ware$waterfall$model.$

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Sure$some=mes$people$will$draw$it$as$a$circle,$but$that$doesnt$x$the$underlying$problem.$

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In$reality,$when$developing$a$new$connected$hardware$product$today,$the$process$is$liJle$dierent$than$when$Michael$Porter$dened$it$like$this$in$1980$for$tradi=onal$manufactured$goods$like$coee$makers.$You$s=ll$have$to$do$each$one$of$these$steps,$and$each$one$takes$months,$if$not$years.$$You$get$one$shot$and$if$youre$lucky$and$all$the$stars$align,$you$get$to$roll$the$dice$again,$and$they$dont,$then$you$shut$down$and$have$to$start$over.$That$sucks!$I$want$to$change$it.$

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And$when$you$go$down$that$technology,$manufacturing,$launch$and$market$route,$which$is$kind$of$like$saying$ReadyHFireHAim,$you$typically$get$one$of$three$outcomes:$1.$kinda$pointless$gadgets$that$exist$because$they$can,$not$because$anyone$wants$them,$such$as$this$Quirky$egg$thing.$This$is$product$design$by$willful$ignorance.$Its$essen=ally$saying:$Figuring$out$what$people$actually$need$and$want$is$hard,$so$well$just$work$on$the$stu$we$know$and$well$spend$a$lot$of$=me$and$money,$and$well$cross$our$ngers$and$hope$that$we$dont$have$to$sell$the$overstock$to$woot.$

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2.$supercial$formal$varia=on$with$very$liJle$change$of$core$func=onality.$This$is$product$design$by$fear.$Its$saying$Figuring$out$what$people$want$and$need$is$hard,$so$well$make$small$changes$to$things$that$we$already$know$they$want$and$hope$that$our$tweaks$will$bring$them$to$us$instead$of$a$compe=tor.$$Or$3.,$the$worst$situa=on$is$that$even$if$you$hit$on$a$success$through$this$random$walk$through$product$space,$its$impossible$to$replicate$it$because$you$dont$know$what$you$did$right$or$wrong.$The$big$consumer$electronics$companies$are$notorious$for$this.$

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Seeed$is$trying$to$=ghten$the$loop,$or$how$to$create$a$loop$at$all,$by$trying$to$see$what$they$can$make$in$a$day,$but$its$s=ll$highly$experimental,$and$even$if$you$can$make$something$quickly,$its$s=ll$really$expensive$to$design$and$develop$it,$and$you$s=ll$have$no$good$way$to$get$market$feedback$on$it.$

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So$to$reduce$your$chances$of$failure,$all$you$have$to$fall$back$on$right$now$the$tradi=onal$customerHcentered$new$product$development$model$derived$from$industrial$design$and$popularized$by$companies$like$IDEO$and$frog.$Let$me$go$through$that$just$so$you$know.$In$the$model$you$use$a$combina=on$of$ethnographic$observa=on,$idea=on$and$a$lot$of$talking$and$analysis$to$iden=fy$what$sounds$like$a$good$idea;$then$you$dene$personas,$build$storyboards,$models,$customer$journeys$and$perhaps$make$some$looksHlike$and$worksHlike$prototypes$that$you$show$key$stakeholders$and$perhaps$a$handful$of$users.$$This$is$as$eec=ve$a$process$as$we$have$right$now,$and$most$companies$dont$even$go$through$these$rela=vely$simple$steps.$S=ll,$I$think$this$approach$doesnt$get$at$the$hard$part,$rapidly$iden=fying$whether$an$idea$is$even$interes=ng$to$people,$and$throwing$it$away$as$soon$as$you$can$if$it$isnt,$while$itera=ng$on$the$parts$that$ARE$interes=ng.$

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By$the$way$if$youre$interested$in$this$tradi=onal$new$product$development$method,$I$highly$recommend$IDEO.orgs$Crea=ve$CommonsHlicensed$Human$Centered$Design$toolkits.$Theyre$aimed$at$people$designing$products$for$the$developing$world,$but$the$ideas$and$methods$are$exactly$the$same$as$designing$a$product$for$anywhere.$

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So$how$do$we$design$not$from$posi=ons$of$ignorance$and$fear$to$create$products$that$we$have$a$high$degree$of$condence$that$people$will$want?$Ive$been$thinking$about$this$for$a$while.$

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And$heres$the$process$Im$currently$using$to$help$us$push$the$bounds$of$exis=ng$products$and$services$with$some$idea$of$what$people$value$and$whats$technologically$feasible.$Its$explicitly$based$on$the$Lean$Startup$approach,$but$geared$toward$hardware.$$The$top$layer$describes$a$highly$itera=ve$exploratory$phase$that$exists$solely$to$help$us$understand$what$experiences$provide$value$to$people$and$what$technology$our$team$can$reasonably$deliver.$Probes,$which$I$will$go$to$in$more$detail$later,$are$things$that$resemble$nished$productsperhaps$theyre$nonfunc=onal$apps$or$boxes$with$lightsbut$exist$to$explore$hypotheses$about$what$kinds$of$products$and$services$people$will$respond$well$to.$We$give$them$to$people$for$a$couple$of$days$or$a$week$and$then$we$interview$them$when$theyve$had$a$chance$to$live$with$them.$Proofs$of$concept$exist$to$test$the$core$technological$ideas.$I$dont$care$if$we$have$to$throw$a$$3000$server$at$the$problem$when$the$end$product$has$to$cost$$10,$is$it$possible$for$us$to$do$that$thing$AT$ALL?$This$kind$of$technical$proofHofHconcept$is$what$Alan$Kay$used$to$call$a$=me$machine.$If$we$can$do$it$for$$3000$today,$well$be$able$to$do$it$for$$10$in$ve$years,$so$its$as$if$were$paying$a$bunch$of$money$to$get$a$device$from$the$future.$$A]er$this$phase$is$done,$we$throw$everything$we$did$away$and$start$designing$the$real$product$from$scratch,$and$thats$where$the$prototyping$process$starts.$We$itera=vely$develop$prototypes$with$addi=onal$user$feedback$un=l$were$preJy$sure$it$represents$a$valuable$and$technologically$feasible$service.$Then$we$deliver$that$to$our$client$who$throws$away$all$of$our$work,$but$uses$it$as$a$reference$design$that$they$can$then$tear$apart$and$rebuild$using$their$own$inHhouse$technologies$or$processes$or$teams.$

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The$probe$approach$is$designed$to$get$feedback$quickly$and$help$us$ask$beJer$ques=ons$about$the$value$of$the$core$ideas.$$Before$I$con=nue$with$our$approach,$let$me$digress$a$bit$into$the$history$of$probes,$because$I$think$its$both$somewhat$unusual$and$important.$

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We$start$in$the$late$1990s$with$cultural$probes,$which$were$developed$by$Bill$Gaver$[and$others]$as$part$of$Equator,$which$was$a$UK$project$to$look$at$how$physical$and$digital$worlds$interacted$(sound$familiar?$Its$basically$what$we$call$the$Internet$of$Things$today).$$They$realized$that$asking$people$what$they$want$is$not$very$helpful$when$those$people$have$no$idea$whats$possible,$so$they$developed$a$method$to$get$inspira=on$about$peoples$lives$obliquely.$Working$from$the$insight$that$people$play$with$technology$as$they$use$it,$they$created$packs$of$gamelike$ac=vi=es$and$asked$par=cipants$to$use$those$kits$over$an$extended$period,$such$as$a$week,$though$some$lasted$as$long$as$six$months.$They$also$o]en$included$an$evoca=ve$nondigital$tool.$$Heres$a$pack$that$Gaver$put$together$that$has$a$notebook,$a$disposable$camera,$and$a$kind$of$stethoscope,$I$think$its$just$a$glass,$that$was$posi=oned$as$a$way$to$listen$through$doors$and$walls.$The$pack$asked$par=cipants$to$document$using$photos$and$wri=ng$where$and$why$they$would$like$to$use$the$stethoscope$to$know$whats$going$on$in$the$next$room.$You$can$see$how$this$would$be$valuable$to$crea=ng$technologyits$in$fact$the$basis$of$the$Kik$appbut$they$explicitly$didnt$try$to$come$up$with$solu=ons,$but$nd$ways$to$ask$beJer$ques=ons.$$The$one$on$the$right$is$by$Louise$Klinker.$Its$focused$on$gegng$people$to$talk$about$$

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Gaver$and$his$team$went$as$far$as$to$create$actual$working$electronic$objects,$but$never$as$products,$but$more$as$ques=ons.$This$is$the$Dri]$Table,$which$was$a$table$with$an$embedded$scrolling$satellite$view.$They$made$it$several$years$before$Google$Maps$because$they$wanted$to$explore$what$it$was$like$to$live$with$a$digital$map$that$you$could$explore$as$entertainment,$rather$than$as$a$way$to$nd$a$specic$route.$Weve$probably$all$played$with$satellite$view$on$maps,$well$this$project$explored$that$experience$way$before$it$was$commonplace$and$it$ended$up$inuencing$a$bunch$of$the$work$that$eventually$went$into$Google$Earth$and$similar$products.$

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You$probably$sense$a$kind$of$ar=ness$about$this$work,$well$thats$not$accidental.$Gaver$and$his$collaborators$based$their$technique$on$art$movements$that$ques=oned$peoples$rela=onships$to$technological$tools$and$consumer$products.$Situa=onism$was$a$Marxist$art$movement$in$France$in$the$late$1950s$that$ques=oned$the$roles$people$play$in$society$and$how$the$objects$they$use$support$those$roles.$Then$they$tried$to$create$playful$experiences$that$aimed$to$expose$these$rela=onship$between$people,$their$society$and$their$things.$Heres$one$of$their$deconstructed$maps$of$Paris,$where$they$cut$apart$a$tradi=onal$map$and$rearranged$it$based$on$one$persons$use$of$the$city,$rather$than$its$physical$layout.$To$some$extent$this$is$how$Foursquare$and$Yelp$let$us$see$ci=es$today,$though$of$course$the$Situa=onists$were$much$more$radical,$intense$and$much$less$prac=cal,$in$their$approach.$$About$ten$years$later$similar$ideas$were$created$by$a$group$called$Fluxus$in$the$US$and$Japanits$the$art$movement$Yoko$Ono$was$part$of$when$she$met$John$Lennonwho$were$also$very$interested$in$the$role$of$commercial$products,$and$created$many,$many$playful$products$and$performances$that$also$challenged$peoples$assump=ons.$Heres$one$of$their$boxes,$which$is$lled$with$all$kinds$of$ridiculous$and$some=mes$clever$artworks$that$were$mass$produced$and$cross$the$line$to$being$products$of$a$sort,$which$you$could$buy$from$their$store$in$New$York.$

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OK$enough$digression$into$1960s$conceptual$art,$but$I$wanted$to$give$you$a$sense$that$people$have$been$trying$for$about$40$years$to$understand$how$people$relate$to$technological$products$other$than$the$Industrial$Revolu=on$technologyHrst$manufacturing$waterfall$model.$$Our$approach$to$probes$approach$owes$a$lot$to$the$technology$probes$project$Hillary$Hutchison$and$others$in$the$early$2000s.$Their$probes$extended$Gavers$cultural$probes$into$the$eects$of$specic$technologies$on$specic$situa=ons.$Rather$than$asking$completely$openHended$inspira=onal$ques=ons,$they$were$trying$to$come$up$with$a$method$that$asked$more$directed$ques=ons,$but$s=ll$did$not$try$to$solve$specic$problems.$What$they$ended$up$making$resemble$what$I$would$call$Lean$Startup$MVP$products.$$For$example,$one$set$of$technology$probes$looked$at$how$mul=genera=onal$extended$families$could$communicate.$One$probe$was$a$set$of$connected$touchscreens,$but$they$didnt$tell$people$what$to$draw,$and$instead$they$watched$what$they$drew$with$this$openHended$tool.$In$fact,$they$inten=onally$stripped$a$lot$of$func=onality$away$to$make$it$feel$less$like$a$product,$so$they$could$focus$on$how$people$used$it$as$a$medium.$

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I$really$like$the$dis=nc=ons$they$draw$between$a$probe$and$a$prototype,$and$I$think$is$really$a$list$of$why$we$dont$want$to$get$too$aJached$to$our$probes$and$to$use$them$as$a$means$to$beJer$understand$people$and$the$value$that$technology$plays$in$their$experience.$In$other$words,$helping$ask$beJer$ques=ons.$

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PARC$is$a$scien=c$research$lab,$but$were$also$a$consul=ng$organiza=on$that$does$research$and$product$design$on$behalf$of$our$clients,$so$I$tried$to$put$together$a$lightweight,$but$rigorous$method$that$we$could$rapidly$use$to$iterate$on$ideas,$and$with$more$explicit$direc=on$than$either$cultural$probes$or$technology$probes,$while$s=ll$keeping$some$of$the$evoca=ve$and$openHended$quali=es$of$those$methods.$

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Heres$our$version$of$the$probe$process.$Itll$look$familiar$from$various$new$product$development$and$user$centered$design$prac=ces.$Ive$tried$to$emphasize$explicit$hypothesis$genera=on$and$evalua=on$because$when$youre$making$an$unknown$product$in$a$novel$category$for$an$untested$market,$which$is$where$we$work,$one$of$the$only$points$of$stability$is$an$clear$statement$about$what$you$think$the$value$of$the$idea$is,$and$thats$the$hypothesis,$so$that$when$the$probe$process$calls$it$into$ques=on,$that$provides$guidance$about$how$to$iterate$it.$

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I$wont$dwell$on$this$step,$but$I$do$want$to$emphasize$that$you$should$do$as$much$background$research$as$possible.$I$see$so$many$projects$that$replicate$something$else$thats$out$there$and$even$if$you$want$to$enter$a$eld$where$there$are$already$players,$you$need$to$evaluate$their$strengths$and$weaknesses.$Here$are$my$sources.$I$generally$try$to$channel$my$four$yearHold$son,$who$typically$asks$why$about$everything,$and$thats$a$really$great$means$of$root$cause$analysis$to$understand$the$world.$Why$did$Google$create$the$Nexus$Q?$$I$also$want$to$say$its$absolutely$ne$to$work$from$your$own$gut$and$if$you$see$an$undesirable$situa=on$that$you$believe$you$know$how$to$improve$or$an$opportunity$that$you$think$you$can$exploit,$great.$Dont$fall$in$love$with$your$visions,$since$odds$are$that$theyre$wrong$in$some$key$way,$but$your$understanding$of$the$space$has$to$start$somewhere$and$that$can$absolutely$be$your$gut.$

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The$next$step$is$to$clearly$ar=culate$that$hypothesis.$There$are$many$ways$to$do$that.$The$Lean$Business$canvas$is$essen=ally$a$hypothesis$checklist$with$a$lot$of$parts,$and$XP$and$agile$user$stories$are$a$simpler$way$to$ar=culate$a$hypothesis.$You$can$use$whatever$method$you$want.$

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Now,$when$youre$in$this$part$of$the$process,$you$need$to$examine$your$idea$from$as$many$angles$as$you$can.$You$dont$just$want$one$hypothesis$about$the$value$of$a$product,$but$to$extract$as$many$dierent$hypotheses$as$are$in$your$product$idea.$This$is$by$far$the$hardest$part,$since$you$have$to$dig$down$into$your$own$assump=ons$about$what$your$thing$does,$how$it$does$it$and$why$thats$going$to$be$valuable$to$people.$$So$work$through$an$example.$Say$your$company$has$a$line$on$a$new$cheap$hyperspectral$sensor$that$lets$you$sense$the$content$of$liquids,$and$a]er$a$bunch$of$idea=on$and$mee=ng$with$engineers$and$poten=al$investors$you$think$a$great$idea$will$be$to$make$a$system$of$several$objects$and$a$cloud$service$that$all$work$together$to$help$people$compensate$for$undesirable$substances$in$what$they$drink.$Theres$a$sensing$tumbler$and$a$straw$that$dynamically$lters$out$certain$things,$so$if$theyve$had$too$much$sugar,$or$salt$or$caeine$today,$itll$lter$those$things$out.$And$this$is$controlled$by$a$cloud$based$machine$learning$service$that$tracks$all$uid$intake$and$adjusts$the$lter$segngs$in$an=cipa=on$of$where$blood$sugar,$salt$and$caeine$levels$will$be.$And$it$of$course$lters$out$impuri=es.$Your$business$model$is$to$make$all$the$hardware$products$cheap$and$make$money$on$subscrip=ons$to$the$service$and$lter$sales.$OK,$that$may$sound$farfetched,$but$its$not$unthinkable,$and$to$me$it$certainly$sounds$like$something$an$angel$will$pay$for.$

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What$are$the$hypotheses?$

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Also,$your$hypothesis$needs$to$try$and$have$a$50%$chance$of$failure.$Not$compete$success$and$not$total$failure.$This$is$a$diagram$from$Donald$Reinertsen,$a$product$development$theorist.$Hes$saying$from$an$informa=on$theore=c$perspec=ve,$you$get$the$most$amount$of$informa=on$about$your$idea$as$it$approaches$a$50%$chance$of$failure.$Try$to$write$hypotheses$where$you$are$not$sure$going$into$it$whether$its$going$to$be$supported$or$not.$$The$maximum$amount$of$informa/on$is$generated$when$the$probability$of$failure$is$50$percent,$not$when$the$hypotheses$are$always$correct.$Donald$G.$Reinertsen,$Managing$the$Design$Factory$(quoted$in$Lean$SoBware$Development)$$

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There$are$many$ways$to$create$lowHdelity$probes,$but$the$basic$idea$is$to$work$quickly$and$try$to$iden=fy$the$essence$of$what$youre$trying$to$evaluate,$and$make$a$thing$that$you$can$show$people.$

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For$example,$for$the$smart$uid$service$idea,$I$would$rst$do$this:$Id$make$a$fake$smart$mug$by$wri=ng$the$words$Smart$Mug$on$a$water$boJle$that$I$would$give$them,$and$I$would$fake$the$sensing$aspect$of$it$by$asking$them$to$only$drink$out$of$that$boJle$for$5$days,$and$text$me$a$picture$of$their$drink$whenever$they$relled$it.$I$would$then$text$them$back$a$made$up$list$of$contents$and$I$would$track$that$in$a$Google$Doc$spreadsheet$to$create$fake$trend$visuals$in$a$mockup$app.$

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Thank$you.$

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