OPTIMA Optimisation for Sustainable Water Management corridoio.zero Multidisciplinary Laboratory for...

OPTIMAOptimisation for Sustainable

Water Management

corridoio.zeroMultidisciplinary Laboratory for Exchanges

with the Balkans and the Mediterranean Region

4th Management Board MeetingMilano, Italy

December 19-20, 2006

4th Management Board Meeting - Milano, Italy - December 19-20, 2006

Tools overview

Stream ScenariosWRM

WRM Optimization

DMC

RRM LUC

Analysisintra-cases

Explorationand negotiation

Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases

Possible developments

Water Resources Model

Generation of 1 or more hydrological scenarios

S

S

C

RD

DD

E

S

E

d

d

d

c

c

c

S=start nodeD=demand nodeC=control nodeR=reservoirE=end noded=diversion nodec=confluence node


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Baseline

Awareness campaign

Technological

WRM Optimization Scenarios


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Baseline

Awareness campaign

Technological



Instruments as levers to generate variations, evolutions

Contraints as filters to cut off unacceptable solutions

Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Baseline

Awareness campaign

Technological



Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Discrete MultiCriteria

Awareness campaign

Baseline

Technological

1 efficientsolution

1 efficientsolution

1 efficientsolution

Criterion i

Criterion j

Criterion i

Criterion j

Criterion i

Criterion j


A tool to navigate among alternatives

Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


efficientSolution baseline


Application of the same scenarios in different basin

efficientSolution awareness


efficientSolution technol.









...

Case 1

Case 2

Case n

......

Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Which is the effectiveness of an infrastrucutural intensive program in a small coastal basin or in a large inland agricultural one?

Which is the effectiveness of a public awareness campaign in the same situations?

Is it possible to elicit some general rule?

Inter case studies analysis

i.e. Best Practices?


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


...

In case it is possible to define general behaviours of basins, it would be possible to draw lessons and Best Practices to disseminate in the wider mediterranean area for all other cases with similar characteristics, i.e. WP14 results would be starting points for WP15 subjects.

Inter case studies analysis


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


First check:How does

choice of criteria and efficient solutions

Criterion i

Criterion j

the efficient solution changes when different (or further) criteria are considered?


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Criterion i

Criterion j

Starting with 2 criteria



Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Criterion i

Criterion j

Then adding furter ones...



Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Criterion i

Criterion j

The Pareto frontier changes, and the reference point also.



Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Moreover, a further check is necessary:

At the present time many existing criteria are redundant:

This appears from the strong correlation:



Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Supply/Demand ratioReliability of SupplyReservoir performanceDiversion performanceAllocation efficiencyUnallocatedWater ShortfallContent ChangeFlooding daysFlooding extentEconomic efficiencyEcon.efficiency, directBenefit/CostBenefit/Cost, directTotal BenefitTotal CostDirect net benefitsDirect benefitTotal Cost, dir.Water CostWater Cost, direct



Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Supply/Demand ratioReliability of SupplyReservoir performanceDiversion performanceAllocation efficiencyUnallocatedWater ShortfallContent ChangeFlooding daysFlooding extentEconomic efficiencyEcon.efficiency, directCost/BenefitBenefit/Cost, directTotal BenefitTotal CostDirect net benefitsDirect benefitTotal Cost, dir.Water CostWater Cost, direct



Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Criteria available so far are measures of overall behaviourWe need to define criteria able to measure sectoral performances or even node specific onesThis should be in principle realizable through the on-line Knowledge Base Editor.



Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


At least as soon as we learn how to enter it!



Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Comparison and choice of alternatives in the participated activities:-How to compare alternatives:

The use of a Pareto frontier is most likely to be not suitable for non-technical stakeholders

Criterion i

Criterion j


Esploration of the Pareto frontier

Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases




On the other side, a direct visualization of performances is much more comprehensible

Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Also using stakeholder-specific criteria, not just overall ones

…

…

…Alternative i

Criterion2 CriterionN

…Criterion1 Criterion2 CriterionNAlternative j

…

Criterion1



Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases




In collective workshops

Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases




In one-to-one activities

proposed by the case-study partner to

stakeholders

Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases




Through interviews and questionnaires

Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases



In a following phase, shs can negotiate under the supervision of case study/methodological partners until they reach an agreement on a "best compromise".

Criterion i

Criterion j


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases



Criterion i

Criterion j

The "optimal consensual solution“ can be compared with the one identified by technicians using only overall criteria. This may reveal hidden conflicts not shown by basin-scale performances.


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Distribution patterns can be searched, to see if sectoral-specific preferred alternatives or negotiatied solution ones assume common shapes in the hyper-space of criteria.


Criterion i

Criterion j


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Baseline

Awareness campaign

Technological

Possible extension of optimization approach


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases




Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


Awareness campaign

Baseline

Technological

1 efficientsolution

1 efficientsolution

1 efficientsolution

Criterion i

Criterion j

Criterion i

Criterion j

Criterion i

Criterion j


No more separate optimizations...


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases



No more separate optimizations...


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


...but just different regions on the same Pareto frontier


Criterion i

Criterion j


Technological

Baseline

Awareness

Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


WP 14 - Deliverables

D14.1 – Decision Analysis Report (Draft Release by ESS)

D14.2 – Stakeholder Involvement (Proposal of Table of Contents by CZERO)

OPTIMA WP 14

Evaluation: Post Optimal Analysis


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


D14.2 Stakeholder Involvement

1.INTRODUCTION

1.1 Participation in Discrete Multi Criteria phase

1.2 Participation Tools

2.OPTIMISATION SCENARIOS

2.1 Selected Sets of Alternatives (for each CS)

2.2 CS Cross-analysis of Optimisation Scenarios

3.CRITERIA AND OPTIMISATION STRATEGIES

3.1 Selected Criteria (for each CS)

3.2 Constraints (for each CS)

3.3 From Criteria to Objectives

3.4 CS Cross-analysis of Criteria and Objectives


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


D14.2 Stakeholder Involvement

4.DECISION MULTI CRITERIA ANALYSIS

4.1 Choice of Solution Space (for each CS)

4.2 Methods for Exploration of Pareto Fronteer

4.3 Elicitation of Stakeholder Preference Structure(s)

4.4 CS Cross-analysis

5.SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS (to be detailed)

5.1 Sensitivity & Robustness Analysis of solutions (for each CS)

5.2 CS Sensitivity Cross-analysis

5.3 CS Robustness Cross-analysis


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


D14.1-2: open questions

1.Sharing D14.2 approach: it is focused on methodology (participative process in WP14 activities) and not on tools (D16.2 – Guidelines for SH active involvement)

2.Integration and/or moving parts from D14.1 to D14.2 (and vice-versa?)

3.Integration, synergies and cross-references with D15

4.Contributions from CS Partners


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


End

Thank you for the attention!


Analysisintra-cases


Tools overview

Practical tools

D14 Index proposal

Analysisinter-cases


OPTIMA Optimisation for Sustainable Water Management corridoio.zero Multidisciplinary Laboratory for...

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