Opportunistic Approaches to Tactical Allocation – October ......Opportunistic Approaches to...

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Opportunistic Approaches to Tactical Allocation – October 25, 2011 601 California Street, Suite 620, San Francisco, CA 94108 Phone: 415-217-5800 | Fax: 415-217-5803 | www.mainmgt.com

Transcript of Opportunistic Approaches to Tactical Allocation – October ......Opportunistic Approaches to...

Page 1: Opportunistic Approaches to Tactical Allocation – October ......Opportunistic Approaches to Tactical Allocation – October 25, 2011 601 California Street, Suite 620, San Francisco,

Opportunistic Approaches to Tactical Allocation – October 25, 2011

601 California Street, Suite 620, San Francisco, CA 94108Phone: 415-217-5800 | Fax: 415-217-5803 | www.mainmgt.com

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Main Management: Who We Are

• Independent investment advisory firm founded in 2002

• Seasoned team with average of over 30 years industry experience across many market cycles

• Investment approach based on the active management of passive indexes– Primary focus on sector and sub-sector fundamental analysis– Believe that undervalued sectors will revert to their appropriate valuations– Implementation with Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)

• A pioneer in all-ETF investing

• Shared commitment to results

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Main Management Team: Deeply Experienced, Uniquely Qualified

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Name Title Industry Experience

Background

Kim D. Arthur* CEO and Portfolio Manager 22 Institutional sales & trading, equity product marketing, investment policy

James W. Concidine* Portfolio Manager 39 Family office CIO, private wealth advisory and management, equity sales

J. Richard Fredericks* Portfolio Manager 39 Chosen as “All-American” Research Analyst by Institutional Investor Magazine for 17 consecutive years, investment banking, served as US Ambassador to Switzerland and Liechtenstein

Tom McManus Advisory Board Member 26 Chief Market Strategist at Lazard. Former Chief Investment Officer at Wells Fargo Advisors. Former Managing Director and Chief Investment Strategist at Banc of America Securities, LLC.

Michael E. Fisher Advisory Board Member 40 Retired as a Managing Director in 2007 from Barclays Global Investors. Previously, affiliated with Northern Trust, Bankers Trust, and PIMCO.

Peter Mullin Advisory Board Member 39 Founded nation’s largest independent executive benefits services provider, MullinTBG (sold in 2008 to Prudential), co-founded M Financial Holdings Incorporated

Robert Heller Advisory Board Member 42 Former Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Former President and CEO of VISA USA. Current Director of the Bank of Marin Bancorp.

Carl T. Delfeld Advisory Board Member 30 Former U.S. representative of the Executive Board of Directors at Asian Development Bank, an emerging markets consultant for the U.S. Treasury.

Werner Keller Advisory Board Member 40 Werner has taught courses in portfolio management and investment analysis at UCLA . Independent trustee for Rydex Investments.

* Investment Committee

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Step 1: Developing Strategic Targets

• Analyze global macroeconomic and capital market fundamentals over 6-12 month time horizon, including– Interest rates– Currency rates– Inflation – Economic growth

• Consult with Main Management’s Advisory Board for fresh perspective and unique insights

• Formulate strategic targets for allocations to– US Equity– Non-US equity– Non-correlated investments

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Step 2: Analyzing Market Sectors

• Evaluate the following across the major equity asset classes:

• Perform fundamental research on factors such as P/E, P/B, P/S, supply/demand dynamics, debt ratios, etc.• Identify market sectors that look undervalued relative to

– Their historical mean– The relevant benchmark index

• Uncover a catalyst that should lead to near-term price appreciation (mean reversion)• Rank sectors from most to least attractive

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US Equity International Equity

• Sectors• Sizes• Styles

• Sectors• Sizes• Styles

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Step 3: Identifying the Right ETFs

• Identify the most appropriate ETFs to implement strategic asset allocation and express sector views by evaluating such factors as:– Holdings – Weighting methodologies– Sector and sub-sector exposures– Liquidity profiles– Option availability– Tracking error

Sample ETF Comparison: Technology (as of 09/30/11)

ETF (Ticker) Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK)

iShares S&P Tech – Software (IGV)

Merrill Lynch Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH)

Number of Holdings 82 55 25

Weighting Methodology Market cap-weighted Modified cap-weighted Proprietary weighting

Software & Services Weight* 47% 99.96% 0.00%

Avg. Daily Trading Volume* 17,923,300 139,680 12,505,700

Liquid options? (Y/N) Yes No Yes - limited* Over past 3 months as of 10/17/2011

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Main Management strategies

• Investment strategies designed by Asset Class

• Clients may not want all of their investments in a single strategy

• Advisors may retain macro allocation decisions if they choose

o Active strategy – U.S. Large Cap (ETF Sector Rotation)o Buy Write strategy – Option writing strategy on global ETFso All Asset strategy – 70/30 Global Balanced ETF portfolioo International strategy – Non U.S. equities (country ETFs)o Global Macro Long/Short strategy – ETF global equity pair trades o Currency strategy – Non U.S. currency exposure through ETFs

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Long/Short strategy – VIX and harvesting volatility

• The VIX volatility index can rise significantly during periods of extreme market moves

• Cash secured put writing (SPY) can be an effective method of benefitting from high volatility

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Long/Short Strategy – Sector pair trade example

P/B P/E P/SCurrent Financials valuations (XLF) 0.8 11 1.0

Median Trough valuations 1.0 9 0.5

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P/B P/E P/SCurrent Utilities valuations (XLU) 1.5 15.1 1.2

Median Peak valuations 1.6 14.0 1.2Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc.

Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc.

• Financials looks undervalued relative to historical troughs while Utilities may be stretched, given that they are close to or exceed historical peaks

• Sector pair trade may be long Financials (XLF) and short Utilities (XLU)

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Long/Short Strategy – Sub-sector pair trade example

• Software looks overvalued on a P/B, P/S and Cash Flow basis

• IGV is a good proxy for the Software sub-sector

• May be a candidate to short as part of a pair trade

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Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All rights reserved

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Sector pair trade – Simultaneous long trade

• Semiconductors look undervalued on a P/B, P/S and particularly on a Cash Flow basis

• SMH is a good proxy for the Semiconductor sub-sector

• May be a long candidate matched with a simultaneous short of Software

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Source: Ned Davis Research, Inc. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. All rights reserved

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Long/Short historical performance

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Disclosure

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Main Management, LLC (“Main Management”, or the “firm”) is an investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The firm was founded in 2002 and provides investmentmanagement services primarily to high net worth, family groups, foundations/endowments, and serves as a sub-advisor to third-party investment advisors & broker-dealers.

The information contained herein was prepared using sources that the firm believes are reliable, but the firm does not guarantee its accuracy. The information reflects subjective judgments,assumptions and the firm’s opinion on the date made and may change without notice. The firm is not obligated to update this information. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice ora recommendation to purchase or sell securities. The information is not intended as an offer to provide advisory services in any state or jurisdiction where such offer would not be permitted underapplicable registration requirements. All equity investing entails risk of loss. The firm cannot assure any potential client that it will achieve the investment objectives discussed in these materials. Inaddition, potential clients should not assume that their returns, if any, will be comparable to returns that the firm earned in the past.

In preparing this material, Main Management has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individual investor. Many securities transactions arerisky and are not suitable for all investors. All securities investments carry risk, including a risk of loss of principal.

Recommendations that the firm makes in the future may not equal the performance of the securities mentioned in this information, if any, or even be profitable at all. Securities mentioned herein donot represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for the firm’s clients. Upon request, Main Management will furnish a list of all securities purchased or sold on behalf of clients withinthe last year.

The firm and its clients, affiliates and employees may, from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the securities or derivatives (including options) thereof, of the ETFs mentionedin these materials and may increase or decrease their positions.

No part of this material may be copied in any form, by any means, or redistributed without the firm’s prior written consent