Open house ifpri ligane sene
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Transcript of Open house ifpri ligane sene
IFPRI Open HouseENSA-ISFAR
IFPRI Standard modelA 1-minute explanation
Ligane Massamba J. Sene
31-03-2014
Introduction
• CGE : Policy issues • Equations describing model variables• Often used in developing countries such as those based on
the IFPRI template model• IFPRI standard model features
Activities
Factor markets
Households
Commodity markets
Rest of world
Government Sav. / Invest.
Returns Domestic private savings
Taxes
Costs
Transfers
Private cons. Gov. cons.Invest. demand
ExportsImports
Sales
Foreign savingsForeign transfers
Intermed. demand
Typical model structure
Activities
Factor markets
Commodity markets
Households
Rest of world
Household surveys
National accounts
Supply/use table
Labor force surveys
Trade data
B.o.P.
Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)
+ =
Data requirements
Marketed commodity
Application : Food price shocks & CAADP in Senegal
• Key features of Senegal Economy • Agriculture, the main economic activity in rural areas (60% of
the population live in rural areas)• Erratic agricultural growth and national GDP growth rate
around 3.5% that is below the government target of 7% as specified in the SCA.
• Poverty rate of 46% in 2011• Knowledge gap to fill for optimal agricultural policies (food
prices hikes & poor agriculture performance)• Data requirement (Agricultural SAM for Senegal, ESPS II)
Agricultural commodities and sectors in the model
Food prices : Simulation designs
Food price shocks: Poverty impacts
CAADP impacts in Senegal
• The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) : as part of NEPAD in July 2003 and focus on improving and promoting agriculture across Africa.
• Allocation of 10 per cent of national budget to agriculture• An agricultural growth target of 6 per cent
• The programme focuses on four key areas to improve productivity and growth. Land and water management, Market access, Food supply and hunger and Agricultural Research
Targeted yields: rice 6.68, millet/sorghum 1.05 , maïze 1.5 , peanut 1.2
CAADP impacts in Senegal
CAADP impacts in Senegal
Conclusion
• Policy option in response to food price hikes should be targeted to optimize the impact on poverty reduction
• The simulated low magnitude change in transaction costs, generally due to remoteness and infrastructure quality, have impact on poverty especially in rural area albeit marginally.
• Infrastructure for market access • Additional effort for more poverty reduction
Thank you for your attention