IFPRI Water Policy

ResearchIrrigation Component

Claudia Ringler, Ruth Meinzen-Dick, Andrew Bell, Tingju Zhu, Hua Xie, and Ephraim

Nkonya

IFPRI irrigation work program

Completed

• Large- and small-scale irrigation potential across Africa

• Water management adaptations to CC in SSEA

Ongoing • Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA & SA • Assessing options for water-conserving

irrigation in China, India and Vietnam• Assessing role of irrigation in agricultural

productivity• Global modeling of irrigation using IMPACT• Environmental Management Options and

Delivery Mechanisms to Reduce Malaria Transmission in Uganda

Starting up/

Planned

• Experimental games to understand collective action and conjunctive use

• Determinants of adoption for advanced irrigation technologies

• Nutrition & health benefits of smallholder irrigation

• Institutions for water quality management

Combined biophysical and socioeconomic assessment of

i) dam-based irrigation potential, and

ii) (residual) small-scale irrigation potential

Input from hydrologic model, but no hydrologic modeling

Potential additional work:

Large- vs. small-scale irrigation under climate change You, L, C. Ringler, U. Wood-Sichra, R. Robertson, S. Wood, T. Zhu, G. Nelson, Z. Guo, and Y. Sun. 2011.

What is the Irrigation Potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach. Food Policy 36(6): 770-782

Large- vs. small-scale irrigation, Africa

Completed Projects

Assessment of climate change impacts on irrigation water supply

Adaptations for Water Mgmt. in SSEA

Completed Projects

Ringler, C., N. Cenacchi, A. Cavalieri, W. Salas, D. Spielman, T. Zhu, H. Xie, Y. Sun. 2011. Analysis of Climate Change and Technology Policies in South and Southeast Asia. Submitted to USAID

Changes in irrigation supply reliability in 2050 for India, South Asia (excluding India),

and Southeast Asia

Methods:

i) Ex-ante spatial analysis to filter for areas above ‘threshold’ potential:Soils Topography RunoffMarket accessSurface water accessPopulation density

ii) Biophysical modeling using SWAT to estimate water availability, consumption, and crop yield under different scenarios of smallholder irrigation development

iii) Economic modeling using DREAM to estimate development impacts on crop prices

iv) Integration of i, ii, and iii results to determine optimal profitable irrigated crop mix, and the potential application areas of the various irrigation technologies

Investigating 8 technologies for smallholder irrigation:

Diesel pumps Treadle pumps Communal river diversionsSmall reservoirs Inland valley rice In-situ water harvesting Ex-situ water harvesting Rural electrification

Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA & SA

Ongoing Projects

Xie, H., L. You, B. Wielgosz and C. Ringler. What is the potential for smallholder agricultural water management in Sub-Saharan Africa? An integrated hydrologic-economic assessment. Agricultural Water

Management (under review)Xie, H., L. Longuevergne, C. Ringler, and B. Scanlon. Calibration and evaluation of the SWAT model using

GRACE data in modeling continental hydrology of Sub-Saharan Africa. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (under review).

Potential application areas of:

20.5M ha (Diesel pumps)

17.3M ha (Treadle pumps)

1.2M ha (Communal river diversion)

0.3M* ha (Small reservoirs)

*3.2M ha if no capital costs

Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA

Ongoing Projects

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Rwanda

Gabon

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1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

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Potential application area (in 1000 ha) for motor pumps:

Potential additional work:

In-country validation of modeling toolM&E of agricultural productivity improvementsImpacts of climate variability on irrigation potential … and many other options

Smallholder irrigation potential in SSA

Ongoing Projects

Treadle pump pilots in Kenya, Tanzania

Ongoing Projects

Kickstart is one of several firms marketing small-scale, low-cost irrigation technologies across SSA.

This project evaluates Kickstart programs in Kenya and Tanzania.

Kickstart’s main products are human-powered treadle pumps irrigating areas of up to 2 acres.

Mainly targeting poor areas with limited access to diesel or technical support.Nkonya, E., L. Iannotti, B. Sakwa, B. Wielgosz, V. Gandhi, E. Kato, A. Peterman, and M. Jin. Baseline

study of Kickstart treadle pumps in East Africa (2011)

Treadle pump pilots in Kenya, Tanzania

Ongoing Projects

Key preliminary findings:

1. Very low ownership by women2. Main market for irrigated product in local villages3. All irrigation was for high-value (e.g., vegetable)

crops4. Pump owners are not the poorest – were also more

educated and more likely to have phones

Hip pump MMP SMMP Motorized pump

Hose pipe0%

25%

50%

75%

100%FemaleJoint

Water-Saving Irrigation in China/India & Vietnam

Ongoing Projects

Innovative Water-Saving Irrigation and Investment Priorities for Food Security and Water Sustainability in China, India and Vietnam

• Local Focus Group Discussions involving farmers and water managers

• Policy dialogues with national experts and policy makers

• Scenario design – irrigation investment and technology adoption

• Simulation modeling of water balance and irrigation water use under alternative investment and efficiency scenarios

Global irrigation modeling in IMPACT

Ongoing Projects

Sample topics:

• Role of water in the global bio-economy

• Irrigation and food security, alternative scenarios (mostly presentations)

Zhu, T. and C. Ringler. 2012. Climate Change Impacts on Water Availability and Use in the Limpopo River Basin. Water 4(1): 63-84. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w4010063

Irrigation Supply Reliability in the Limpopo River Basin

Env’tal Mgmt. Options to Reduce Malaria Transmission in Uganda

Ongoing Projects

• Literature review of agriculture-environment-health linkages

• Geographically weighted regression analysis of Uganda National Household Survey for 2006 to determine localized agriculture-environment-health linkages

• Statistical analysis of longitudinal data for Uganda to establish intervention potential for extension, for example, through FFS for agriculture-health linkages

Assessing returns to irrigation, Tanzania

Projects starting up

Assessment of Tanzania’s Agricultural Sector Development Program (ASDP), with attention to:

• Quantifying investment returns to a cross-section of irrigation investments in the ASDP,

• Assessing sustainability of these returns and arrangements for cost recovery (via water user associations and fee collection, etc.),

• Identifying the key technical, financial, and institutional determinants of schemes with higher vs. lower investment returns, and

• Evaluating trade-offs of investing in i) strengthening existing schemes, ii) rehabilitating older schemes, and iii) developing new schemes

Irrigation and increased ag. productivity

Projects starting up

A) Agricultural household surveys (Bangladesh and Pakistan) for econometric assessment of:

i) Contribution of irrigation to crop yields/income/ nutritionii) Biophysical and socioeconomic determinants of participation in irrigation

B) SWAT hydrological model to extrapolate survey results to the entire country (Bangladesh and Pakistan)

Experimental Games for Strengthening Collective Action?

Projects starting up

Recent research has suggested that participation in experimental games has impact on behavior following the game

This project aims to evaluate impact of experimental games on collective action in an irrigation context, in India and Colombia

Partnership with Foundation for Ecological Security (India), Universidad de Los Andes (Colombia), and Arizona State University (USA)

Pending evidence of positive impact on collective action from games, this project will apply for funds to scale-up activities

Additional topics of interestProjects under planning

• Assessment of smallholder irrigation on community nutrition and health

• Energy use in irrigation versus mechanization and fertilizer—impacts on productivity and food security

• Institutions and policies for enhanced rural water quality management

• Determinants of adoption of advanced irrigation technologies

Summary and key IFPRI research goals

Current IFPRI work on irrigation is focused on social data collection (focus groups, surveys, experimental games) coupled to mathematical modeling, to address (broadly speaking):

• What are the benefits to particular irrigation schemes (such as smallholder irrigation)

• Who adopts irrigation programs and why (such as advanced irrigation technologies)

• What are the returns to particular investments in irrigation schemes (such as canal lining in Pakistan)