On the use of bubble diagrams in project risk management...

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Accepted Papers – Final – 26.04.2005 (in Thematic Blocks) Keynote Lectures Keynote lecture: Foundational issues in risk analysis T. Aven, Norway Keynote lecture: Multi-attribute utility theory and FN-criteria T. Bedford, UK Keynote lecture: Methods of probability assessment of ships' accidents on restricted water areas L. Gucma, Poland Keynote lecture: Grey repairable system analysis R. Guo, South Africa & C.E. Love, Canada Thematic Blocks B1 - Methods of Hazard and Risk Analysis Development of a causal model for air transport safety B.J.M. Ale, L.J. Bellamy, R.M. Cooke, L.H.J. Goossens, A.R. Hale, D. Kurowicka & A.L.C. Roelen, Netherlands & E. Smith, England A geostatistic approach to the Functional Analysis Space Technique: a case of study. G. Alfaro Degan, D. Lippiello & M.Pinzari, Italy Analysis of accident scenarios of RoPax vessels P. Antão & C. Guedes Soares, Portugal Application of the Formal Safety Assessment to the reduction of turn around time in the high speed craft terminal of the port of Nice P. Antão & C. Guedes Soares, Portugal & M. Fracchia, Italy & F. Capoulade, France Ways of perfection of hazardous goods’ transportation technology N. Batarlienė, Lithuania Application of the ARAMIS Methodology to Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises A. Bernatik, R. Bris & S. Horehledova, Czech Republic Probabilistic approach to risk analysis of chemical spills at sea M. Bogalecka & K. Kołowrocki, Poland Time redundancy in a transportation logistics system D. Caban & H. Maciejewski, Poland 1

Transcript of On the use of bubble diagrams in project risk management...

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Accepted Papers – Final – 26.04.2005(in Thematic Blocks)

Keynote Lectures

Keynote lecture: Foundational issues in risk analysisT. Aven, Norway

Keynote lecture: Multi-attribute utility theory and FN-criteriaT. Bedford, UK

Keynote lecture: Methods of probability assessment of ships' accidents on restricted water areasL. Gucma, Poland

Keynote lecture: Grey repairable system analysisR. Guo, South Africa & C.E. Love, Canada

Thematic Blocks B1 - Methods of Hazard and Risk Analysis

Development of a causal model for air transport safetyB.J.M. Ale, L.J. Bellamy, R.M. Cooke, L.H.J. Goossens, A.R. Hale, D. Kurowicka & A.L.C. Roelen, Netherlands & E. Smith, England

A geostatistic approach to the Functional Analysis Space Technique: a case of study.G. Alfaro Degan, D. Lippiello & M.Pinzari, Italy

Analysis of accident scenarios of RoPax vesselsP. Antão & C. Guedes Soares, Portugal

Application of the Formal Safety Assessment to the reduction of turn around time in the high speed craft terminal of the port of NiceP. Antão & C. Guedes Soares, Portugal & M. Fracchia, Italy & F. Capoulade, France

Ways of perfection of hazardous goods’ transportation technologyN. Batarlienė, Lithuania

Application of the ARAMIS Methodology to Small and Medium-Sized EnterprisesA. Bernatik, R. Bris & S. Horehledova, Czech Republic

Probabilistic approach to risk analysis of chemical spills at seaM. Bogalecka & K. Kołowrocki, Poland

Time redundancy in a transportation logistics systemD. Caban & H. Maciejewski, Poland

Working towards an integrated approach for analyzing risks in process plantsJ.Cambon, E. Garbolino & F. Guarnieri, France

On the need of exact probabilistic quantification in FT/ET analysisG.G.M. Cojazzi, S. Contini & G. Renda, Italy

New Ways of Applying the Petri Net Formalism in Risk AnalysisM. Diergardt & R. Mock, Switzerland

An innovating application of Bayesian networks: global environmental risk assessment of the cold source system of a nuclear power plantA. Dutfoy, S. Pierlot & G. Deleuze, France

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An integrated model of controllability for the preliminary design phase of high speed craftsA. Faravelli & M. Pedrali, Italy & F. Ghozlan, France & T. Koester, Denmark

A risk-cost model for assessing the impact of automation and mechanical failures in the preliminary design phase of high speed craftsA. Faravelli, M. Pedrali & A. Raffetti, Italy

Risk estimation in systems where many various hazards are present and many various escalations / mitigations are possibleM. Ferjencik, Czech Republic

Rare events: natural hazards and major accident industries L. Fiorentini, V. Rossini, F. Colombo & A. Respighini, Italy

Securing new mobile technologiesA. Fischer & H. Straumann, Switzerland

An assessment of ship impact on the ground during manoeuvring in a port water areaW. Galor, Poland

Risk analysis for insurance of technical systemsD. Gołębiewski & K.T. Kosmowski, Poland

A Methodology for the integrated development of internal and external events in the probabilistic risk analysis for PBMR plantH. van Graan, D. Serbanescu & Y. Combrink, South Africa

Importance measures in cause-consequence diagrams, calculation and applicationsD.J.K. Griffin, UK

Methods for bridge safety assessments with respect to ship collisionsL. Gucma, Poland

Risk assessment of road tunnels based on Bayesian networkM. Holický & L. Šajtar, Czech Republic

The infrastructure of a probabilistic safety assessmentI. Ingemarson & M. Knochenhauer, Sweden

Optimization of a procedure for emergency cooling and pressure relief for reactors with exothermal processesD.W. Jabłoński & U. Hauptmanns, Germany

Challenges in remote control and remote co-operation of offshore oil and gas installations in the North SeaS.O. Johnsen, A. Askildsen & K. Hunnes, Norway

Identification and reduction of risks in remote operations of offshore oil and gas installations.S.O. Johnsen, M.A. Lundteigen, H. Fartum & J. Monsen, Norway

Does deregulation of the railways increase safety in rail transportation?S.O. Johnsen & M. Tungland, Norway

BDD complexity reduction by component fault treesB. Kaiser & A. Zocher, Germany

Uncertainty analysis performed for the review of a large scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysisJ.-U. Klügel, Switzerland & F. Groen, USA

Level 2 PSA approach for Ignalina RBMK-1500 reactor in LithuaniaV. Kopustinskas, E. Urbonavičius, A. Kaliatka, S. Rimkevičius, E. Ušpuras & A. Bagdonas, Lithuania & P. Hellström & G. Johanson, Sweden

Probabilistic risk analysis of electric shock associated with exploitation of low voltage equipment

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W. Korniluk & R.A. Sobolewski, Poland

Time series – the tool for traffic safety analysisR. Krystek & J. Żukowska, Poland

Areas of dangerous approach to the ship defined with the aid of a domainA. Łebkowski, M. Tobiasz, K. Dziedzicki, M. Tomera & R. Śmierzchalski, Poland

Rank reliability assessment of the technical object at early design stage with limited operational data. Case study.M. Młyńczak & T. Nowakowski, Poland

A methodology of risk assessment for operation and maintenance tasksA. Nagasaka, M. Ebisu, T. Aikawa, K. Hayase & K. Takano, Japan

Risk analysis; a tool to support decision making. But, who cares about the decisions?O. Njå & T.E. Nøkland, Norway

Determination of point of maximum likelihood in failure domain using genetic algorithmsA.S. Obadage & N. Harnpornchai, Thailand

Quantified risk assessment for plants producing and storing explosivesI.A. Papazoglou, P. Saravanos, I. Giakoumatos & O.N. Aneziris, Greece

Ships navigational risk assessment in port areasV. Paulauskas, Lithuania

Safety management coping with complexity in air traffic managementE. Perrin & J. Spouge, Norway

An approach to carry out a boiler plant hazard assessmentV. Rouhiainen, M. Reunanen, J. Sarsama & J. Schabel, Finland

Operational risk reduction of turbines by optimization of its start-upsA. M. Rusin & M. J. Lipka, Poland

Risk, probabilility and uncertainty for complex technical systemsD. Serbanescu, South Africa

Incorporating human and organizational factors in risk analysis for offshore installationsS. Sklet, T. Aven, S. Hauge & J.E. Vinnem, Norway

Qualitative analysis of human, technical and operational barrier elements during well interventionsS. Sklet, T. Steiro & O. Tjelta, Norway

The formal safety assessment and influence of human factor in application to chosen ship’s typeM. Smajdor, Poland

Reliability analysis based on cost of failureM.T. Todinov, UK

Risk criteria in EUV.M. Trbojevic, UK

B2 - Analytical Methods for System Safety and Reliability

Reliability analysis of large systems with dependent componentsA. Blokus, Poland

Reliability and availability evaluation of large renewal systemsA. Blokus, Poland

Preliminary reliability and availability estimates of an accelerator for an ADS system

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L. Burgazzi, Italy

Solution of stochastic multi-objective system reliability design problems using genetic algorithmsD.W. Coit & F. Baheranwala, USA

Reliability-adaptive tool change management of transfer linesC. Dietl & U.K. Rakowsky, Germany

Evaluating and improvement of safety instruments in offshore industries using dependability analysisV. Ebrahimipour & K. Suzuki, Japan

Formal hazard analysis using multi-net semantic networksL. Filippidis, Germany

Reasoning about trust in IT infrastructuresJ. Górski, Poland/Italy & M. Zagórski, Poland

Coupling of information-flow aggregation method and dynamical model for a more accurate evaluation of reliabilityK. Hamidi, France/Germany & O. Malassé & J.F. Aubry, France

Probability of failure on demand (PFD)-the formulas of IEC 61508 with focus on the 1oo2D votingP. Hokstad, Norway

An approach for early reliability evaluation of mechatronic systemsP. Jäger & B. Bertsche, Germany

Ferry control area of entry on the intersection with a fairwayL. Kasyk, Poland

A simple method to derive minimal cut sets for a non-coherent fault treeT. Kohda, Japan

Risk-based dynamic reconfiguration of safety monitoring systemsT. Kohda & W. Cui, Japan

Computer aided functional safety assessmentK.T. Kosmowski & M. Śliwiński, Poland

Methodology for functional safety assessmentK.T. Kosmowski & M. Śliwiński, Poland

On account of concurrent rectangular pulse actions in structural designA. Kudzys, Lithuania

Transformed conditional probabilities in cracking redundant bar system designA. Kudzys & R. Kliukas, Lithuania

Reliability improvement of large multi-state series-parallel systemsB. Kwiatuszewska-Sarnecka, Poland

Reliability improvement of large parallel-series systemsB. Kwiatuszewska-Sarnecka, Poland

Weighted voting systems: the decision making time aspectG. Levitin, Israel

Towards safer skies: a probabilistic approach to risk assessment of new aviation safety productsJ.T. Luxhøj & D.W. Coit, USA

An approach for online reliability evaluation and prediction of mechanical transmission componentsM. Maisch, B. Bertsche & R. Hettich, Germany

On limit reliability functions of series – “mn out of kn” systems

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B. Milczek, Poland

Dynamic Bayesian networks for modeling advanced fault tree features in dependability analysisS. Montani, L. Portinale & A. Bobbio, Italy

Analytic solution of seismic probabilistic risk assessmentO. Nusbaumer, Switzerland

General conditions for online estimation and optimization of reliability characteristicsI. Pabst & P.C. Müller, Germany

Reliability evaluation for the pump assembly using an accelerated testS.J. Park, S.D. Park & K.S. Kim, Korea

An introduction to reliability-adaptive systemsU.K. Rakowsky, Germany

On multi-system reliability and operationU.K. Rakowsky, Germany

Some notes on probabilities and non-probabilistic reliability measuresU.K. Rakowsky, Germany

Multistate component criticality analysis in multistate systemsJ. E. Ramirez-Marquez & D.W. Coit, USA

Neural generation of uncertainty reliability functions bounded by belief and plausibility frontiersR. Savić, Germany

Reliability of large parallel-series system in variable operation conditionsJ. Soszyńska, Poland

Reliability of large series-parallel system in variable operation conditionsJ. Soszyńska, Poland

Integration of reliability concepts, diagnosis and control to realize safe systemsD. Söffker, K. Kashi & K. Wolters, Germany

Achieving better on-time-delivery performance with the help of internal dependenciesJ. Takala & P. Nieminen, Finland

Reliability-redundancy allocation for multi-state series-parallel systemsZ. Tian & M.J. Zuo, Canada & H. Huang, China

An approach to affect the probability of failure by changed operation modesK. Wolters & D. Söffker, Germany

B3 - Monte Carlo Methods in System Safety and Reliability

Integration of analytical and Monte Carlo methods for dynamic system safety analysisR. Alzbutas & V. Janilionis, Lithuania

Improved Parameter Estimation for the Process Oriented Simulation (POS) Model for Common Cause FailuresH.-P. Berg, R. Görtz & E. Schimetschka, Germany

A SIL quantification approach to complex systems for guided transportationJ. Beugin, D. Renaux & L. Cauffriez, France

One computation algorithm for multiobjective maintenance optimizationR. Briš, Czech Republic

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Cost-optimization model for the planning of the renewal, inspection, and maintenance of substation facilities in Belgian power transmission systemO. Fouathia, J.C. Maun, P.E. Labeau & D. Wiot, Belgium

Monte Carlo simulation for automotive applications under real conditionsJ. Hauschild & A. Meyna, Germany

Influence of the control strategy choice on the safety level of a distributed control systemA. Mkhida, France/Marocco & P. Barger, J.M. Thiriet & J.F. Aubry, France

A multi-state Monte Carlo simulation model of a railway network systemL. Podofillini, Italy/ Switzerland & E. Zio & M. Marella, Italy

Modeling and simulation of the operational availability and costs of complex systems – a case studyP. Pozsgai & B. Bertsche, Germany

A multistate based generalized path vector approach for multistate two-terminal reliabilityJ. E. Ramirez-Marquez, D.W. Coit & M. Tortorella, USA

Reliability and functional analysis of discrete transport system with dispatcherT. Walkowiak & J. Mazurkiewicz, Poland

A Monte Carlo simulation approach to the production availability evaluation of an offshore installation with operational loopsE. Zio, P. Baraldi & E. Patelli, Italy

B4 - Bayesian Methods in System Safety and Reliability

Testing interval investigation using Bayesian approachR. Alzbutas, J. Augutis, V. Matuzas & I. Zutautaite, Lithuania

Statistical probability assessment of the technological transportation processA. Baublys, Lithuania

An approach to determine uncertainties of prior information – the transformation factorT. Hitziger & B. Bertsche, Germany

Description and discussion of principles and methods for technology qualificationA. Hjorteland, Norway

On how to use expert judgments in regularity analyses to obtain good predictionsA. Hjorteland & T. Aven, Norway

Real time updating of risk assessments during a drilling operationM. Sandøy & T. Aven, Norway

B5 – Dynamic Reliability

Solving dynamic reliability problems by means of ordinary and fluid stochastic petri netsD. Codetta-Raiteri & A. Bobbio, Italy

Reliability model of the multi-stage operationF. Grabski, Poland

The observational method in geotechnical engineering, a risk-based approachR.B. Jongejan, J.K. Vrijling & S. Van Baars, Netherlands

Reliability and risk evaluation of complex systems in their operation processesK. Kołowrocki, Poland

Extended block diagram method for multi-state system reliability assessment

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A. Lisnianski, Israel

Reliability optimization of a parallel system with redundant dependencesH. Yu, C. Chu, F. Yalaoui & É. Châtelet, France

Dynamic reliability analysis of the k-out-of-n multi-state systemE. Zaitseva, V. Levashenko & K.Matiaško, Slovakia & S. Puuronen, Finland

Software modeling framework for dynamic PRAD. Zhu, A. Mosleh & C. Smidts, USA

B6 – Maintenance Modelling

An improved 3- neighborhood heuristic algorithm for constrained reliability optimizationM. Agarwal & S. Aggarwal, India

Maintenance optimization of the RP10 shutdown safety systemA.H. Aguirre & G.S. Lazaro, PERU

Optimum maintenance of systems under two types of failureF.G Badía & M.D. Berrade, Spain

Multi-attribute approaches for maintenance policies selection problemM. Bertolini, E. Bottani & M. Bevilacqua, Italy

Optimization of the maintenance decision for a pipeline in oil productionB. Castanier, France & M. Rausand, Norway

A stochastic approach to burn-in procedures in accelerated environmentJ. H. Cha & M. H. Na, Korea

The optimal preventive maintenance model with degradation rate reduction for the repairable systemsC.-Y. Cheng, Taiwan

Statistical estimation on imperfectly maintained systemC.-Y. Cheng & C.-F. Liaw, Taiwan

Simultaneous assessment of the efficiency of preventive and corrective maintenance for repairable systems in a competing risk frameworkY. Dijoux, L. Doyen & O. Gaudoin, France

A fuzzy analysis on repairable system via simulationYu Ge Dong & Zheng Ni, China

A fuzzy reliability analysis based on the transformation between discrete fuzzy random variable and discrete random variableYu Ge Dong & Zheng Ni, China

Coherent concurrent task scheduling and resource assignment in dependable system designM. Drabowski & E. Wantuch, Poland

Optimization of the preventive maintenance plan of a series components systemJ.A.C. Duarte, J.C. Taborda, A. Craveiro & T. P. Trigo, Portugal

Minimal repair and lifesaving in heterogeneous populationsM.S. Finkelstein, South Africa

Stochastic System Age ProcessesR. Guo & T. Dunne, South Africa

Model of system availability caused by spare parts inventory levelA. Jodejko, Poland

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A study towards the application of Markovian deterioration processes for bridge maintenance modelling in the NetherlandsM.J. Kallen & J.M. van Noortwijk, Netherlands

Maintenance scheduling by variable dimension evolutionary algorithmsP. Limbourg & H.-D. Kochs, Germany

Calibration of reduced models by multi-objective genetic algorithmsM. Marseguerra, E. Zio & R. Canetta, Italy

Use of metrics with multiobjective GA. Application to the selection of an optimal maintenance strategy in the RCM contextS. Martorell, S. Carlos & A. Sánchez, Spain

Optimization of surveillance requirements at NPP considering time-dependent scheduling of tests and preventive maintenanceS. Martorell, S. Carlos, J.F. Villanueva & A.I. Sanchez, Spain & M. Cepin, Slovenia

Optimising the strategy of track maintenanceC. Meier-Hirmer, F. Sourget & M. Roussignol, France

A bivariate process model for maintenance and inspection planningM.J. Newby & C.T. Barker, UK

Modelling the deterioration of the coating on steel structuresR.P. Nicolai, G. Budai, R. Dekker & M. Vreijling, Netherlands

Redundancy optimization for multi-state systems under repair policiesM. Nourelfath & D. Ait-Kadi, Canada

A tool for optimising the maintenance of equipment of electrical networksS. Rusek, R. Goňo & R. Briš, Czech Republic

Adaptive maintenance policy for a deteriorating system with random change of modeB. Saassouh, L. Dieulle & A. Grall, France

Numerical analysis of fire risk at pipeline systems of industrial power facilitiesV.E. Seleznev & V.V. Aleshin, Russia

Automatic fit of parameters under identification of mathematical models to the real failuresV.E. Seleznev, V.V. Aleshin & A.L. Boychenko, Russia

Numerical analysis of nonstationary pollutant spread through the industrial sewer and riversV.E. Seleznev, O.I. Zelenskaya & S.N. Pryalov, Russia

Petri net modeling of production systems in consideration of system properties, maintenance and production processesM. Trost & B. Bertsche, Germany

A multiple criteria model for ship maintenance inspection optimizationJ. Wang, UK & A. Pillay, Norway

Multi-objective evolutionary optimal design of N-version software systemH. Yamachi, H. Yamamoto & Y. Tsujimura, Japan

A block replacement policy for a periodically inspected two-unit parallel standby safety systemR.I. Zequeira & C. Bérenguer, France

B7 – Reliability and Safety Data Collection and Analysis

Comparison of parametric and nonparametric estimations of lifetime distributions from incomplete warranty dataM. Delonga & B. Bertsche, Germany

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Applying the Taylor approach for reliability estimation of drillsC. Dietl, Germany

An analysis of drag forces based on L-momentsP.H.A.J.M. van Gelder, Netherlands & M.D. Pandey, Canada

Evaluation of reliability using shadowed sets and fuzzy lifetime dataO. Hryniewicz, Poland

Fast reliability prediction in the medical equipment industryR.A. Ion, S. Roelsma, P. Sonnemans & A. Brombacher, Netherlands & M.J. Newby, Netherlands/UK

Analysis of the barge repair ability basing on statistical dataR. Iwańkowicz, R. Rutkowski, T. Urbański, T. Graczyk & T. Jastrzębski, Poland

Analysis of reliability model of combined transportation systemT. Nowakowski & M. Zając, Poland

The reliability analysis of continuous operating technical systemP. Pisarski, Poland

Estimation of high consequence low frequency events through empirical Bayes proceduresJ. Quigley, T. Bedford & L. Walls, UK

Component reliability data in argentinean research reactors: collection and processingS.S. Rivera, J.E. Núñez Mc Leod, J.H. Barón, N. Rico & A. Cataldi, Argentina

Collection of reliability and maintenance data - development of an international standardH. A. Sandtorv, R. Østebø & H. Kortner, Norway

Flood forecast using Bayesian approachJ.Simaityte Volskiene, J. Augutis, E. Uspuras & I. Zutautaite, Lithuania

Simplified reliability data collection and analysis in the power systemM. Stojkov, R. Kovacevic & S. Nikolovski, Croatia

A reliability study for the evaluation of File Transfer Protocol requestsP. Tsopelas, Greece

Mapping up and down common cause failure rates and impact weightsJ.K. Vaurio, Finland

Continuous monitoring of warranty costsZ. Vintr & M. Vintr, Czech Republic

B8 – Structural Reliability and Safety

Quantitative analysis of the influence of fuzzy factors on fuzzy reliability of structuresH.Z. Huang, China & M.J. Zuo, X. F. Fan & Z. Tian, Canada

Structural reliability criteria and dynamic positioning of marine vesselsB.J. Leira, A. Sørensen, P.I.B. Berntsen & O.I. Aamo, Norway

Gamma processes for time-dependent reliability of structuresJ.M. van Noortwijk & M.J. Kallen, Netherlands & M.D. Pandey, Canada

Random field of initial deflections and strength of thin platesZ. Sadovský, Slovakia & C. Guedes Soares & A.P. Teixeira, Portugal

Use of Kriging to increase the predictive power of meta-models in structural reliabilityL. Schueremans & D. Van Gemert, Belgium

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Reliability of load bearing steel plates subjected to localised heat loadsA. P. Teixeira & C. Guedes Soares, Portugal

Bayesian bootstrap: use for estimating probabilities of accidental damage to structuresE.R. Vaidogas, Lithuania

B9 – Software Reliability and Security

Power systems performability analysisM. Dumitrescu, I.Voncila, T. Dumitriu, G. Gurguiatu, D. Floricau & A.P. Ulmeanu, Romania

Assessing software reliability in the context of refactoringI.J. Jóźwiak, A.M. Piotrowicz & M.K. Kowalczyk, Poland

Software vulnerability: definition, modeling, and practical evaluationM. Kimura, Japan

Software rejuvenation in maritime applicationsV. Koutras, V. Mennis, N. Nikitakos & A. Platis, Greece

Optimizing the amount of free resources on a computer system using software rejuvenationV. Koutras & A. Platis, Greece

A PKI security reliability assessment methodologyC. Lambrinoudakis, A. Platis & A. Leros, Greece

Genetic algorithm in optimization of fault-tolerant softwareG. Levitin & H. Ben-Haim, Israel

On using soft computing techniques in software reliability engineeringH. Madsen & P. Thyregod, Denmark & B. Burtschy, France & F. Popentiu & G. Albeanu, Romania

An experience in validating train control systems by a grey-box testing approachG. De Nicola, P. di Tommaso, R. Esposito, F. Flammini, P. Marmo & A. Orazzo, Italy

Assessment of the impact of software failures on the reliability of a man-computer systemW. Zamojski & D. Caban, Poland

B10 – Reliability of Network Systems

Probabilistic model checking for dependability properties of stochastic systemsN. Addouche, C. Antoine & J. Montmain, France

An introduction to the assessment of reliability of the heat supply systemsB. Babiarz, Poland

Stochastic and functional analysis of a public mobile network in a safety critical contextA. Bobbio, E. Ciancamerla, M. Minichino & E. Tronci, Italy

Maintenance optimization of a common simple distribution systemR. Briš, S. Rusek & R. Goňo, Czech Republic

An application of game theory to security and reliability analysisI.J. Jóźwiak, W. Laskowski & J. Zych, Poland

A lower bound for the node-pair reliability of network systems with small distances between adjacent nodesJ. Malinowski, Poland

Reliability and credibility evaluation of networked control systemsC. Simon, J.M. Thiriet, P. Barger & J.F. Aubry, France

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B11 – Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis

Uncertainty analysis for the predicted proportion of fuel rods failed during a hypothetical loss of coolant accidentM. Kloos, Germany

Input parameters distribution sensitivity study of RBMK-1500 reactor one group distribution header complete blockage scenarioV. Kopustinskas, R. Urbonas & A. Kaliatka, Lithuania & R. Bolado-Lavín, Netherlands

A statistical approach to control conservatism of robust uncertainty propagation methods; application to accidental thermal hydraulics calculationsE. de Rocquigny, France

Formal safety assessment of container liner supply chainsZ.L. Yang, S. Bonsall & J. Wang, UK & Q.G. Fang, China

B12 - Expert Methods in System Safety and reliability

Experts information estimation and application using Bayesian and fuzzy inferenceR. Alzbutas, Lithuania

The neural methods in expert judgment processing A. Brandowski, W. Frackowiak & H. Nguyen, Poland

Reliability forecast of automotive systems based on soft computing techniquesP. Citti, M. Delogu, V. Fontana & M. Ammaturo, Italy

Identification of hazard zones for operators in ship power plantsA. Podsiadło & W. Tarełko, Poland

B13 – Human and Organizational Factors in Safety and Reliability

A proposal for a model to predict the effects of organizational change on safety: application in a maintenance establishment of SNCFO. Chery, E. Fadier & S. Duriez, France

Partial safety factor for historical masonry arch bridgesM. Curbach & D. Proske, Germany

Automatic design optimisation for reliable systems with human operatorsI. Eusgeld & Ch. Stoica, Germany

Management influences on major hazard prevention: the ARAMIS auditA.R. Hale, F.W. Guldenmund, L.H.J. Goossens & J. Karczewski, Netherlands & N-J. Duijm, Denmark & D. Hourtoulou, J-C. LeCoze, E. Plot & F. Prats, France & B. Kontic, D. Kontic & M. Gerbec, Slovenia

Attitudes to different energy sourcesJ. Harvey, S. Joyce & P. Norman, UK

Bayesian parameter estimation in human reliability analysisX. He, J. Tong & X. Huang, China

Integrating human factors into process hazard analysisS.G. Kariuki & K. Löwe, Germany

Methodological and practical aspects of maintenance planning in hazardous systemsK.T. Kosmowski & J.M. Piesik, Poland

Models of behavior and human errorS. Massaiu, Norway

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Quality and productivity improvement by implementation of total productive maintenance systemJ.M. Piesik, Poland

Accidents, safety and crew interaction in the maritime domainR. Pyne, UK & T. Koester, Denmark

Managing human and organizational factors in the construction and marine industriesM. Shammas, Norway/UK & O.T. Gudmestad, Norway

Safety as an organizational value: improving safety practices and learning from accidentsS. Silva & M.L. Lima, Portugal

Developing risk management through specific safety psychological trainingM. Specht, C. Denis-Rémis, F.-R. Chevreau, J.-L. Wybo, Luc Guerillot, V. Guinet & W. Rangamie, France

Application of model-based risk analysis in a risk-informed man, technology and organisation modelA.P-J Thunem, B. Axel Gran & A.B. Miberg Skjerve, Norway

Improving integrity of offshore marine operations by incorporating human, management and organisational barriers in risk assessmentV.M. Trbojevic, UK & O.T. Gudmestad, Norway

B14 – Safety and Reliability Management and Decision Making

Evaluation of cost-benefit analyses for analyzing safety and safety measures in investment projectsE.B. Abrahamsen, F. Asche & T. Aven, Norway

On the use of bubble diagrams in project risk management, with application to safetyE.B. Abrahamsen & T. Aven, Norway

Perspectives on risk acceptance criteria and management for offshore installations – application to a development projectT. Aven, J.E. Vinnem & F. Vollen, Norway

A population-based algorithm for the hazardous materials routing problemD. Barbucha, Poland

Multicriterial optimization of semi-Markov processes with discountK.P. Bernaciak, Poland.

Sharing experience on risk management to design future industrial systems : shape-risk, an European co-ordination actionCh. Bolvin & O. Salvi, France

Risk based evaluation of space exploration architecturesW.M. Cirillo, J.F. Letchworth, B.F. Putney, J.R. Fragola, E.Y. Lim & C. Stromgren, USA

Innovations in power network enterprises increasing effectiveness of the processes ensuring continuity and quality of electric energy suppliesG. Dąbrowska-Kauf, Poland

Providing Guidance in a Non Prescriptive EnvironmentR. Denning, UK

Major accident hazard and land-use planning: difficulties in law requirements rendering and real application to existing overexploited areas L. Fiorentini, C. Gasilini, A. Romano & S. M. Scarpellini, Italy

Risk administration of not-implemented safety measuresA.W. Heskestad, M.L. Eknes & H.K. Endresen, Norway

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The Process of Safety Management and Decision MakingP. Kafka, Germany

New developments for socio-economically based risk acceptability criteriaA. Lentz & R. Rackwitz, Germany

Improved railway punctuality by effective maintenance – a case studyB. Nyström & P. Söderholm, Sweden

Human factor in a vessel navigational decision support systemZ. Pietrzykowski, Poland

The safety case and the lessons learnt for the reliability and maintainability case.M. Revie, T. Bedford & L. Walls, UK

A discussion of the IEC standards 61508 and 61511 in a risk management contextW. Røed, J.E. Vinnem & T. Aven, Norway

Safety and reliability management system of hazard goods transportationJ. Szpytko, Poland

Estimating warranty costs in the initial stages of product lifeM. Vintr, Czech Republic

Conception of the national sea safety management and monitoring systemR. Wawruch, Poland

B15 – Decision Support Systems and Software Tools for Safety and Reliability

Multicriteria decision support for vessels routingW. Filipowicz, M. Łącki & J. Szłapczyńska, Poland

Reducing encounters numbers in vessel traffic schemesW. Filipowicz & T. Neumann, Poland

Hazard identification in process plant through CAD, CAE and PDM systemsF. Giannini, M. Monti, S. Ansaldi & P. Bragatto, Italy

Optimal visualization of navigational situation in pilot support systems with use of safety criteria.M. Gucma, Poland

The safety of manoeuvring in confined areas as a function of navigation coordinates systemsS. Gucma, Poland

Information portal of the Gdynia Maritime Administration Office as a tool for managing maritime safety and environment protectionI. Jagniszczak & P. Jędrzejowicz, Poland

Dynamic games methods in navigator decision support system for safety navigationJ. Lisowski, Poland

Power network reliability analysis systemV. Matuzas, D. Tarvydas, R. Krikstolaitis & N. Listopadskis, Lithuania

Modelling a decision-making process of hazard zone identification in ship power plantsA. Podsiadlo & W. Tarelko, Poland

Development of an integrated software for reliability analysis and PSA, SAREXH. Seok, D.K. Kim, H.K. Lim & S.K. Kang, Korea

B16 – Safety Standards and Regulations

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Development of risk criteria in nuclear power plantsM. Cepin, Slovenia

On the use of risk analysis in maritime certification and classificationG. Chantelauve, France

Hydrogen applications to aircrafts and cars – basic safety aspectsG. Klein, B. Zapf & T. Weidl, Germany

Validation of decompression schedules for the polish navyR. Kłos, Poland

Logistic regression as a model for the assessment of decompression risksR. Kłos, Poland

Alternative stability requirements and application of the FSA methodologyL. Kobyliński, Poland

Avionics databus safety criteria and certificationA. Kornecki & J. Zalewski, USA

Alternative procedures for combination of actions in ISO standardsJ. Markova, Czech Republic

Investigation of influence of organic polymer on TML value of the mineral concentratesM. Popek, Poland

New approach to safety contour of electronic navigational chartA. Weintrit, P. Kopacz & K. Kołowrocki, Poland

B17 – Safety and Reliability Education and Training

Co-narrative training as a method of safety educationR. Bye & A. Solem, Norway

Failure forecast in engineering systems by searching for the inner points of system of algebraic equalities and inequalitiesV.E. Seleznev, V.V. Kiselev & O.I. Zelenskaya, Russia

B18 – Accident and Incident Investigation

Analysis of causes of crude oil tankers’ disastersH. Bugłacki & P. Gande-Milewska, Poland

DP incidents on mobile offshore drilling units on the Norwegian Continental ShelfH. Chen & T. Moan, Norway

Critical assessment of the organisational learning system of the fire service in response to fatal accidents to firemenF. Koornneef, A.R. Hale & W. van Dijk, Netherlands

Systematic approach to naval accidents and breakdowns in the Polish NavyZ. Korczewski & R.J. Wróbel, Poland

The system of safe ship steering at seaA. Łebkowski, M. Tobiasz, K. Dziedzicki, M. Tomera & R. Śmierzchalski, Poland

Mathematical modeling of heat and mass transfer during fire in room with complex geometryS.V. Puzach & N.V. Puzach, Russia

Safety practices and procedures used when three major accidents occurred in South AfricaJ.K. Visser, South Africa

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B19 – Occupational Safety

An analysis of accidents caused by improper functioning of machine control systemsM. Dźwiarek, Poland

Using barrier concepts to understand priorities in the prevention of occupational accidents A.R. Hale, B.J.M. Ale, C. Paas, J.T. Quik, M. Mud, L.J. Bellamy, J. Whiston, H. Baksteen, J. Post, P Uijt de Haag & Joy Oh, Netherlands & T. Geyer, UK

Occupational risk in decommissioning/removal projectsS. Haugen, H. Myrheim, D.R. Bayly & J.E. Vinnem, Norway

Optimisation of OSH-related management processes in enterprisesM. Pęciłło, Poland

Risk assessment in textile and wood processing industryP.Tint, K.Reinhold & G.Kiivet, Estonia

B20 Emergency Foreseeing and Planning

Problems associated with evacuation from the ship in case the emergency situationD.H. Łozowicka, Poland

B21 – Consequence Modelling

A method for the estimation of loss of life caused by floodsS.N. Jonkman & J.K. Vrijling, Netherlands

B22 – Risk Perception and Communication

Organizational culture and risk perceptionR. Bye & G.M. Lamvik, Norway

An acceptable risk? Medias portrayal of the process leading to a decision on whether or not to allow year-round petroleum activities in the Barents SeaS. Gøjse & T. Aven, Norway

What does safety culture mean to the shop floor in the nuclear industry?J. Harvey, G. Erdos, H. Bolam & D. Gregory UK

B23 – Fault Identification and Diagnostics

Dynamic safety margin in fault diagnosis and isolationM. Abdel-Geliel & E. Badreddin, Germany

Diagnostic discriminators of crack in large power turbo-set’s rotating shaftS. Banaszek, Poland

Active safety in operation of electric locomotivesM. Cygan, Poland

A feature selection approach based on principal component analysis and synaptic weights for mechanical faults diagnosis.B. Kilundu, Congo & P. Dehombreux, Belgium

Probabilistic design verification of offshore rock supportsG.B. de Vries, Netherlands

B24 – Integrated Safety and Reliability Concepts

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Safety aspects of ammonia as a fuel in fuel-cell-powered vehiclesN.J. Duijm, J.L. Paulsen & F. Markert, Denmark

Deterministic and non-deterministic methods for analyzing and improving equipment performance in offshore industry based on dependabilityV. Ebrahimipour & K. Suzuki, Japan

An improvement of industrial and technological safety based upon the nuclear safety concept of “Defense in Depth”E. Garbolino, F. Guarnieri & J. Cambon, France

Reliability growth through block upgradeD.P. Gaver, P.A. Jacobs & E.A. Seglie, USA & K.D. Glazebrook, UK

Environmental indicators for agricultural management: the problem of integrationK. Hayashi, Japan

Modelling Quality and Reliability RelationsI. Pabst, P.C. Müller & C. Dietl, Germany

An innovative strategy to put integrated maintenance, reliability and quality improvement concepts into actionM. F. Ramalhoto, Portugal & R. Göb, Germany

GDYNIA, 26.04.2005

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