Oil-to-Chemicals In search of the Holy Grail · Oil to Chemicals – Full Chemicals Prepare total...
Transcript of Oil-to-Chemicals In search of the Holy Grail · Oil to Chemicals – Full Chemicals Prepare total...
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Fluor is a registered service mark of Fluor Corporation.
HA20170207-001.pptx
Oil-to-Chemicals In search of the Holy Grail
Jelle Ernst Oude Lenferink GPS conference, Athens, November 2017
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Outline
Company introduction
Introduction
Refinery to chemicals
Oil-to-Chemicals configurations
Reliability impact
Conclusion
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Company introduction - Fluor Corporation
… a passion to build!
Client with an
idea and a
business plan
Operating facility
producing the
right product
in a cost
competitive and
sustainable way
Fluor Turning ideas
into reality
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Integrated Solutions Comprehensive Life-Cycle Services for Client Capital Assets
Construction Management
Contractor Management
Craft Staffing & Training
Equipment, Tools & Fleet Services
Field Mobilization Material Control Modular Construction Project & Program
Management Quality Control Rigging Safety Programs Scaffolding Self-Perform
Construction WorkFace Planning
Conceptual Design Estimating Feasibility Studies Permitting Process Simulation Project Financing Routing Scope Definition Siting Technology/
License Evaluation
Advanced Work Packaging
Cost Control Detailed
Engineering Fabrication Front-end
Engineering Modular
Construction Planning &
Scheduling Process Simulation Safety Planning Systems Integration
Commissioning Engineering Support Initial Production Plant Readiness Precommissioning Systems Checkout Turnover Validation
Asset Management Solutions
Contract Staffing Electrical &
Instrumentation Equipment, Tools, and
Fleet Services Fabric Maintenance Inspection & Integrity Mechanical & Piping Power Services &
Products
Contract Staffing Contracts Management Expediting Fabrication Logistics Low Cost Country
Sourcing Materials Management Purchasing Requirements Planning Sourcing Supplier Quality Warehousing
Engineering Procurement Construction Start-up Diversified
Services Design
Contractor Management
Material Control Modular Construction Purchasing Quality Control Safety Programs Self-Perform
Fabrication Sourcing
Fabrication
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Fluor Corporation
One of the world’s largest engineering, procurement, fabrication, construction and maintenance companies
Designs, builds and maintains capital-efficient facilities for clients on six continents
Delivers integrated solutions for clients in the energy, chemicals, government, life sciences, advanced manufacturing, infrastructure, mining and metals and power market sectors
Serving more than 4,000 clients in over 100 countries
#155 on the 2017 FORTUNE® 500 list with revenue of $19 billion in 2016
More than 60,000 employees executing projects globally
105-year Fluor legacy
Dallas, Texas
Fluor Corporate Headquarters
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Typical Fluor Projects by TIC
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General Downturn in Transportation Fuels
There is a direct link between refinery utilization and gasoline demand
Lower gasoline demand results in reduced crude oil intake and consequently lower refinery revenue
Are there opportunities?
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Europe’s Refining Sites not that Integrated
https://www.fuelseurope.eu/knowledge/refining-in-
europe/fuelling-the-eu/links-with-petrochemicals-
other-industries/
Only one-third of refineries are integrated with petrochemicals sites
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Slido poll
Where is your company in integrating refineries with (petro)-chemicals? Study phase
FEED phase
EPC phase
Not yet looked at
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Where is Added Value
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How the Oil Price affect your Chemical Prices
Table taken from Oil-price shocks and the chemical
industry: Preparing for a volatile environment
McKinsey & Company, May 2015
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Complex Fuels Refinery
Converts crude oil into motor fuels
Bottoms of the barrel upgrade using hydrocrackers/FCC
No downstream integration
Low added value compared to petrochemicals products
CDU
VDU
HCU
VRDS
LPG Plant
FCC
LPG
Naphtha
Naphtha
DieselAtmospheric
Residue
Vacuum Residue
Kerosene
Fuel Oil
UCO
HCO / Slurry
Naphtha
Isom
Reformer
Alkylation Gasoline
Isomerate
LPG
Light SR Gasoline
Butanes
Reformate
Alkylate
Kerosene
Diesel
LCO
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Example - Petrochemical Production vs. Fuels
Source: Saudi Aramco
Traditional refinery-petrochemicals integration using LPG and naphtha
Step-change required to go for 30-50% petchems
Alternative cracker feedstocks
More petchem from refinery units
30-50% Petrochemical Refinery
10-25%High Level of Petrochemicals
5-10%Low to Moderate Level of Petrochemicals
Source: Saudi Aramco
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15
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25
30
35
40
45
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5 10 15 20 25 30Refinery Capacity, MMTPA
Wt%
Yie
ld a
s Petr
ochem
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Oil to Chemicals – Crude to Olefins (CtO)
Depending on crude type additional process units may be required to e.g. remove sulfur and metals
“CDU 1”
“CDU 2”
SC
Aromatics
Complex
C4 Block
Light Hydrocarbon Fraction
Atmospheric
Residue Other C4's
Butadiene
Propylene
Ethylene
Benzene
Toluene
Xylene
Pygas HTHeavy Hydrocarbon Fraction
Residue
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Oil to Chemicals – Full Chemicals
Prepare total crude for downstream petrochem units
HCU – upgrade VGO
VRDS/RFCC – convert VR to SC and Aromatics
feedstock
CDU
VDU
NHT
KHT
DHT
HCU
ARDS/
VRDS
Naphtha
Splitter
SC
RFCC
Aromatics
Complex
Pygas HT
C4 Block
LPG
LPG
LPG
Naphtha
Heavy Naphtha
Light
Naphtha
Naphtha
Diesel
Diesel
Kerosene
Atmospheric
Residue
Vacuum Residue
Kerosene
Diesel
Fuel Oil
Other C4's
Butadiene
Propylene
Ethylene
Benzene
Toluene
Xylene
Raffinate
UCO
LCO
Naphtha
Pygas
HCO
Naphtha
C4's
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Reliability Impact
Individual units have on-stream factors (OSF) Multiple units in a row affect complex’ availability
if one unit fails overall complex capacity is impacted
Mitigate by investing in catch-up capacity for process units and increasing
storage capacity CAPEX impact can easily be 5-10%
CDU
OSF 0.98
VDU
OSF 0.98
NHT
OSF 0.98
HCU
OSF 0.98
SC
OSF 0.98
Naphtha
Naphtha
Atmospheric
Residue
18%
21% 0.98 x 0.98 x 0.98 = 0.94
for 21% of crude
0.98 x 0.98 x 0.98 x 0.98 = 0.92
for 18% of crude
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Find The Fastest Route Through The Maze
Need independent judgement Understanding refinery &
petrochemical interactions Accurate cost information
CDU
VDU
NHT
KHT
DHT
HCU
ARDS
Naphtha
Splitter
SC
RFCC
Aromatics
Complex
Pygas HT
C4 Block
LPG
LPG
LPG
Naphtha
Heavy Naphtha
Light
Naphtha
Naphtha
Diesel
Diesel
Kerosene
Atmospheric
Residue
Vacuum Residue
Kerosene
Diesel
Fuel Oil
Other C4's
1-butene
Butadiene
Propylene
Ethylene
Benzene
Toluene
Xylene
Raffinate
UCO
LCO
Naphtha
Pygas
HCO
Naphtha
C4's
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Comparison Between Configurations (@50 $/bbl)
Crude @ 50 $/bbl Full Conv Ref Ref-Petchem CtO Full Chem
Overall conversion 90% 90% 70% 90%
Overall conversion to chemicals 4% 25% 55% 82%
Relative CAPEX * 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.6
Relative IRR * 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.6
Investment/ton product 1196 1617 1764 2152
Gross Margin (GM) [$/bbl] 19 30 39 47
Ethylene cost [$/ton C2=] - 2262 1358 1253
Crude @ 100 $/bbl Full Conv Ref Ref-Petchem CtO Full Chem
Gross Margin (GM) [$/bbl] 38 53 65 78
Ethylene cost [$/ton C2=] - 1495 1364 1189
GM = ($ Products – $ Crude) / total crude (bbl)
* Based on Fluor in-house data
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10% 20% 30% 40%
Eth
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$/t
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Capital Return [%]
Cost of Ethylene @ 50 $/bbl
Ref-Petchem
CtO
Full Chem
Cost of Ethylene @ 50 $/bbl
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2500
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Eth
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ne
Co
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$/t
on
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Crude Price [$/bbl]
Cost of Ethylene @ 20% Capital Return
Ref-Petchem
CtO
Full Chem
Cost of Ethylene @ 20% Capital Return
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Take away
Refinery cornered by its configuration, limited by demand drop
Reliability of complex impacts profitability, counter by investing in catch up capacity (multiple units, more storage)
Expanding into chemicals increases potential for profitability
More chemicals per barrel of crude makes complex less sensitive for crude price fluctuations
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Contact details
Jelle Ernst Oude Lenferink
Process Engineering Manager
Fluor B.V., Amsterdam
Tel: +31 (0)23 543 2414