OECD case study on innovation in energy technologies Fuel ... · research (via internet) in Germany...
Transcript of OECD case study on innovation in energy technologies Fuel ... · research (via internet) in Germany...
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
OECD case study on innovation in energy technologies
Fuel Cell Innovation in Germany
Jürgen Wengel, Elna Schirrmeister
Fraunhofer ISI
International Conference on Innovation inEnergy Technologies
September 29-30, 2003 Washington, DC
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Content 1. Background and framework conditions
2. Organization of fuel cell innovation in Germanyactors / networks / initiatives
3. Policy instruments and options - lead markets?
4. Conclusions and outlook (measuring R&D productivity?)
SourcesOECD secretariat bibliometric analysis
Database* at Fraunhofer ISI of 474 hydrogen related projectsand patents with German participation
Specific recherches on patents, publications and universityresearch (via internet) in Germany plus official statistics
Several projects and continuous monitoring of trendsin fuel cell technologies at Fraunhofer ISI
* with the support of van Giessel/Ros as part of their master thesis „The affect of community dynamics and knowledge on the acceleration of technology development for the transitiontowards a hydrogen based transport system in Germany“ for the study of Science & Innovation Management at Utrecht University
Folie 2
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1. Background and framework conditions
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Characteristics of the German Innovation System
highly differentiated and decentralized (e.g. universities)
no extensive priority setting (e.g. with respect to subsidies)
strength in advanced technology branches: automobile, mechanical engineering, chemical industry
weakness to link up with leading edge technologies: information technology, new materials
fuel cell technology roots in all above fields
decreasing long term orientation
no short term market introduction of fuel cells expected
national orientation of R&D, technology policy dominates
private industry performs more than 60% of research
classical strengths are getting less important lead markets will become more significant
Folie 4
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
German Federal Expenditure on Science, Research and Development in Energy Technologies
Folie 5
630 615
423 405 426 408 408 432399
161192153139152151155
170
123
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1989 1991 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001* 2002*
in m
illio
ns o
f Eur
o
Energy research and energy technology in total
Renewable energy and energy conservation
* budgeted
Source; BMBF fact report research 2002
Fraunhofer
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German Industry´s R&D Expenses 1999 and Their Distribution Over R&D Fields
Applied research 81%
(31.6 bill. €)
Basic research 4% (1.7 bill. €)
External R&D 15% (5.9 bill. €)
1,5bill. €
2,0bill. €
3,0bill. €
8,3bill. €
Automotiveproducts
Industrialengineering
products
Aerospace Energy production and distribution
Selected fields of applied researchFolie 6
Source; Stifterverband Wissenschaftsstatistik 1999
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Contribution of Different Sectors to Applied R&D on Energy Production and Distribution Products
Folie 7
Source; Stifterverband Wissenschaftsstatistik 1999
0,10
0,06
0,86
0,50*
Mechanical engineering
Electrical engineering, optics, etc.
Vehicle construction
Other sectors
* figure estimated
Share in applied R&D in billion €
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Development of Patents and Publications in the Area of Fuel Cells
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
"Triadic"(EU, US, J) patent families
International publications (ETDE)
German patents (DPA)
Source: Draft working paper of OECD secretariat 7/2003 in the framework of OECD/TIP case study on innovation in the energy sector, Fraunhofer ISI analysis of German patent data
Folie 8
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
International Orientation of Hydrogen or Fuel Cell Projects withGerman Participation
Source: Fraunhofer ISI databank on hydrogen related projects (n = 231, multiple participation of countries)
Projects with European partners only
Projects with German partners
only
63%
Projects with international partners
12%
25%15%
10%13%
10%
7% 8%
France Italy Netherlands UK Canada USAFolie 9
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Germany´s Innovation Strategy in the Fuel Cell Area According to Publications and Patents Analyses
USA
„spider“ in international networks
strong industry-public interaction
Japan
industry strongly contributes toscientific knowledge
and differences to ...
Germany
work on all types of fuel cells,AFC and MCFC German specialties
average player in the international network focus on EU
highest number of publications and patents in EU but internationally low
rather low output per population but increasing
strong public research centres
business internal links dominate
Folie 10
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2. Organization of fuel cell innovation in Germany
- actors
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Distribution Among Institutional Sectors of Fuel Cell Publications 1990-2000 in Selected Countries
Source: Draft working paper of OECD secretariat 7/2003 in the framework of OECD/TIP case study on innovation in the energy sector
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
UK
Canada
USA
Japan
Germany
Higher education Government Private non-profit Business enterprises
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German Scientific Research Related to Fuel Cell Technologies
HAW HamburgHTW SaarlandRWTH AachenTH KarlsruheTU BerlinTU ClausthalTU DarmstadtTU DresdenTU Hamburg-HarburgTU MünchenUni Bayreuth
Uni BochumUni Bonn Uni Duisburg-EssenUni FreiburgUni GöttingenUni HannoverUni KielUni MagdeburgUni MainzUni PaderbornUni StuttgartUni Ulm
Around 30 % of German universities pursue fuel cell related research activities (status 7/2003):
Source: Fraunhofer ISI enquiry of universitywebsites and http://www.forschungsportal.net,analysis of SCI/ISI databank
Leading German actors in fuel cell relatedresearch by number of publications between 2000 -2002 contained in SCI:
Research Centre Jülich - Werkstoffe und Verfahren (80)German Aerospace Center, DLR (32)Max-Planck-Institute - Festkörperforschung (20)Technical University Munich (14)Centre for Solar & Hydrogen Research, Ulm (12)Technical University Karlsruhe (12)SIEMENS AG (11)University Ulm (10)Hahn-Meitner-Institute (10)University Stuttgart (9)Fraunhofer Institute Solar Energy Systems (9)Research Centre Jülich - Festkörperphysik (9)Max-Planck-Institute - Kohlenstoffforschung (7)
Folie 13
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Leading German Actors in Fuel Cell Research by Patents (DPA until 2001 in the fuel category)
Number Organisation96 SIEMENS AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (MUENCHEN)48 BALLARD POWER SYSTEMS AG (KIRCHHEIM / TECK-NABERN)45 FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM JUELICH GMBH (JUELICH)29 DAIMLERCHRYSLER AG (STUTTGART)22 EMITEC GESELLSCHAFT FUER EMISSIONSTECHNOLOGIE MBH (LOHMAR)15 OMG-Degussa AG & CO. KG (HANAU)10 BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (MUENCHEN)10 MTU GMBH (FRIEDRICHSHAFEN) 9 ATECS MANNESMANN AG (DUESSELDORF)8 ROBERT BOSCH GMBH (STUTTGART)7 CELANESE VENTURES GMBH (FRANKFURT)7 ELRINGKLINGER AG (DETTINGEN)6 FRAUNHOFER-GESELLSCHAFT E.V. (MUENCHEN)6 MANNESMANN AG (DUESSELDORF)5 BASF AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT (LUDWIGSHAFEN)5 XCELLSIS GMBH (KIRCHHEIM/TECK-NABERN)
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2. Organization of fuel cell innovation in Germany
- actors- networks
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FhG
DLR
Degusssa/OMG
Siemens
FZ-Jülich
DC
Ford
Ballard
Max-Planck
ZSW
Emitec
Co-operation Between Major Players in Fuel Cell Research
Number of joint public projects:more than 10 co-operations6-10 co-operations3-5 co-operations1 or 2 co-operations
Uni. Stuttgart
BMW Linde
Mannesmann
MTU
Research Institutes
Industry
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Fuel Cell Strategies of Passenger Car Manufacturers (Date 2003)
BMW
GM/OpelToyotaMazdaDC
Ballard
UTC Delphi
MitsubishiFord
VW
R&D centres in Germany
Co-operation/dependencies
Own stack development
Stacks delivered
Contractual agreementproject cooperations
Owns one third of Mazda
Hydrogen combustion engine + APU
Co-operation but independentown stack development
DaihatsuVolvo
DLRFZ Jülich LBST
Folie 17
Research centrers
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2. Organization of fuel cell innovation in Germany
- actors- networks- initiatives
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Efforts and Clustering of Fuel Cell Activities in Germany
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Research and demonstrationprojects of federal government (ZIP)
Competence Network Fuel Cells, Northrhine-Westfalia
Research Alliance Fuel Cells, Baden-Wurttemberg
Hydrogen and FuelCellsInitiative, Hassia
HydrogenInitiative, Bavaria
Important actorsindustryresearch centresautomotive groups´ research centres
European Union Framework Programmes on Research
Länder government subsidies for research and demonstration
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Founded 2000, 280 members,about 40 NRW-funded fuel cell
projects (volume of 77 Mio. €,
42 Mio. € public funding).
Strengthening of the industry
and science in NRW in the field of fuel cell technology.
Companies66 %
R&D-Institutes
20 %
Privates3 %
Others11 %
The Fuel Cell Network NRWwww.fuellcells-nrw.de
Source: Landesinitiative Zukunftsenergien NRW
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Fuel Cell Research Alliance Baden-Württemberghttp://www.brennstoffzellen-initiative.de/root/index.php
Fraunhofer-Institute Chemical Technology
Fraunhofer-Institute Solar Energy Systems
University of Ulm
Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research
University of Stuttgart
German AerospaceCentre (DLR)- Institute for Technical Thermodynamics
Max Planck Institute for Solid State Research
Fraunhofer-InstituteInterfacial Engineering and Biotechnology
Karlsruhe
Freiburg
Pfinztal
University of Karlsruhe
Institute of Textile Technology and Process EngineeringDenkendorf
Founded 2000, 14 members
Coordinating research
activities
Strengthening technology
transfer
Source: FABZ secretariat
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Founded 1996,
30 projects with a total financial
amount
of € 70 Mio.(ca. 50 % public
funding).
The Bavarian Hydrogen Initiativewww.wiba.de
Source: wiba secretariat
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Promotional Networks Let by Industry in Germany
The Transport Energy Strategy (TES) is an initiative launched by the vehicle manufacturersBMW, DaimlerChrysler, General Motors Europe (Opel), MAN and Volkswagenand the energy suppliersARAL, BP, RWE, Shell and Total FinaElf,
supported by the Federal Government, with theFederal Ministry of Transport, Building andHousingacting as central coordinator, with the aim ofdeveloping and implementing a strategy for the medium-term, nationwide market introduction of an alternative fuel for transport
Joint undertaking of four companies. Their common goal is to make "compact”, natural-gas-fueled stationary fuel cells for residential needs technicallyand economically competitive.
Fuel Cell Initiative (IBZ)
Transport Energy Strategy (TES)
?Initative on
portable applications
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Initiatives for Vocational Training in Germany in the Context ofthe Innovation Process of Fuel Cells
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• Future investment programme (BMWA-ZIP): 7 projects referring to training on fuel cells, among these: support of competence centers in Ulm (ZSW) and Jülich (Research Center), study about the demand of information and training for craftsmen (HPI, L-B-Systemtechnik, Fraunhofer ISI)
• Elektroausbildungszentrum Aalen e.V. (eaz): Preliminary study: Fuel Cell – Challenge and chances for the craftsmen
• Network for fuel cell training (www.bz-bildung.de)
• BIBB, Forschungsgruppe Praxisnahe Berufsbildung (FPB): Arbeitskreis„Qualifizierungsoffensive Brennstoffzelle“
• IBZ: Initiative of gas and energy supplier (http://www.initiative-brennstoffzelle.de)
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3. Policy instruments and options - lead markets
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Fuel cell technologiesFuel cell technologies
The Innovation Policy Tool Box and Fuel Cell Technology
Technology transfer and networking
R&D projects
Basic research/development Industrial application/diffusion
Supply(Technology
Push)
Demand(Technology
Pull)
Research groups
Industrial working groups
Cooperative research projects (suppliers)
Indirect-specific promotion (supplier)
Cooperative projects (supplier - user)
Studies (state of the art, international comparison, evaluation, etc.)
Public/cooperative procurementAwareness measures
Diffusion policies (taxation, grants, ...)
Pre-normative research
Demonstration projects
Indirect-specific promotion (users)
Risk capital
Folie 26
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Lead Markets for Fuel Cell Applications? - the Example of Cars
General characteristics oflead markets D E
U
US
A
J
Remarks on current situation in automotive
Demand for innovations relativelyindependent of price + + + +
Only in high-end segment
High income per capita + + + + True for all the countries here
High (consumer-) readyness toadopt innovations ++ - + +
Germany often shows early diffusion of newtechnical features in cars
High quality expectations ++ - - +
Beneficial accreditation systems ? ? + ? Systems differ, California takes lead in FC cars
Pressure for innovative change- - ? +
Emissions in urban areas / strong dependanceon oil, but consumptions per car decreasing
Working system of marketdevelopment - - - -
Implementing the infrastructure still missingeverywhere
Favourable tax and politicalframework conditions ? ? - ?
No trend in taxation predictable, low taxation ofgas in USA not advantageous
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
45% 45%
32%
12%
18%
22%
11% 20%
23%9%
20%4%16%
4%
5%4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Tank
Abgasanlage
Kühlsystem
Getriebe
Fahrzeugelektrik
Elektronik
VM bzw. Stack u.Gaserzeugung
Verbrennungs-motor
BrennstoffzelleMethanoltank
BrennstoffzelleWasserstofftank
Potential change in the component structure of the propulsion
3,000 € 2,000 € 3,000 €
Cooling system
Motor electronics
Electronics
Exhaust system
Transmission
Fuel cellMethanol tank
Combustionengine
Fuel cellHydrogen tank
ICE or stack and gas generation
Folie 28
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Changes in Vocational Training of Automotive Mechanics in the Context of Automotive Application of Fuel Cells
Folie 29
Pla
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für
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Basics of manufacturing technologies, electronics,
materials etc.
Chassis
Brake systemCar body
Lighting, ignition
Power transmission
Electric power supply and starting system
Car electronics
Car system
Otto engine
Diesel engine
not influenced by the technology switch
subjects influenced
omitted subjects
Reference: Rahmenlehrplan zur Verordnung über die Berufausbildung zum/zur Kraftfahrzeugmechaniker/-in, 1989
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
4. Conclusions and outlook
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
ConclusionsScientific (publications) and technological (patents) output on fuel cell technologies is (still) on the rise. In Germany, the growth seems superproportional.
According to patents and scientific publications, Germany is among the key players.
The technological focus in the last decade has been on PEMFC and SOFC but DMFC, AFC and MCFC are recognised options.
International co-operation seems to be very broad in the USA while Germany´s overseas network is almost completely based on DC and GM/Opel activities.
National Innovation Systems in the area of fuel cell technologies differ. In Germany, public research centres play an important role. Industry concentrates on technology and internal linkages. In fuel cell innovation Sectoral Systems interact.
It is not yet clear which and where lead markets will evolve but there are candidates.
Public promotion: extension from technology push towards demand oriented measures to be put on the agenda, yet limited use in Germany. Folie 31
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Questions
What could be the role of Germany in the technological and commercial race towards fuel cell applications within the European Union?Does the current input (subsidies, RTD personal, investments, ...) relate well enough to the output (publications, patents, products, ...) ?
Should and could international co-operation be improved ? How and in which areas (standards, science, particular technological fields, ...) ?
What could be transition paths towards the long-term vision of the hydrogen society ?How could lead markets be developed?
Folie 32
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Considerations on Fuel Cell R&D Productivity Assessment in Germany
• Full picture of R&D expenditures/effort hardly to achieve.
• Distinction of input (publications?) and output (patents?) depending on perspective.
• More relevant would be impact but - apart from consensus about criteria -there is hardly any impact, yet.
Cases in niche markets? Industry survey on efforts to date and assessments.
Effort/input
• personal
• investments
• material
• project funding
• etc.
Output (numbers?)
• papers
• patents
• licenses
• prototypes
• image ...
Impact
• sales
• employment
• wealth
• improved sustainability
• etc.
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Thank you for your attention.
Additional overheads
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Theoretical Background - Innovation System Approach
The potential reachof public policies ...
Framework ConditionsFinancial environment; taxation and incentives; propensity to innovation and entrepreneurship; mobility ...
Education and Research System
Professional education and
training
Higher education and research
Public sector research
Industrial System
Large companies
Mature SMEs
New, technology-based firms
IntermediariesResearchinstitutesBrokers
Consumers (final demand)Producers (intermediate demand)
Demand
Banking, venture capital
IPR and information
Innovation and business support
Standards and norms
Infrastructure
PoliticalSystem
Government
Governance
RTD policies
Source: Technopolis 2000, modified and extended by S. Kuhlmann, ISI
Folie 35
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Relative Output of Patents in Relation to Publications on Fuel Cells in Selected Countries 1990 - 1996
Source: Draft working paper of OECD secretariat 7/2003 in the framework of OECD/TIP case study on innovation in the energy sector
France
Belgium
USAGermany
UK
Italy
EU
Canada
Japan
Netherlands
Switzerland
Denmark(0,13 / 0,55)
0,00
0,01
0,02
0,03
0,04
0,05
0,06
0,07
0,08
0,09
0,10
0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 0,30 0,35
"Triadic" patent families per million population
Pu
blic
atio
ns
per
mill
ion
po
pu
latio
n
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Output of Patents in Relation to Publications on Fuel Cellsin Selected Countries 1990 -1996
Source: Draft working paper of OECD secretariat 7/2003 in the framework of OECD/TIP case study on innovation in the energy sector
FranceSwitzerland
Belgium
DenmarkNetherlands
Italy GermanyUK
Canada
Japan
USA
EU
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Number of "triadic" patent families
Nu
mb
er o
f p
ub
licat
ion
s
science oriented
technology oriented
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Co-operation Between Major Players in Fuel Cell Research
11
2
6
10
1
1
6
2
1
1
11
2
2
3
2
4
6
4
7
2
4
5
4
4
3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
BMW
DC
Siemens
Number of joint projects
Linde Messer Griesheim
Air Liquide
Ford DC BMW Shell DLR LBST Siemens
Folie 38
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FhG
DLR
Degusssa/OMG
Siemens
FZ-Jülich
DC
Ford
Ballard
Max-Planck
ZSW
Emitec
Co-operation Between Major Players in Fuel Cell Research
Number of joint public projects:more than 10 co-operations6-10 co-operations3-5 co-operations1 or 2 co-operations
Uni. Stuttgart
BMW Linde
Mannesmann
MTU
Fraunhofer
ISI
InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Fuel cell strategies of automobile manufacturersDate 1999
Daimler-Chrysler
Necars, Produk-tion 2004
GM/Opelbis 2004 serien-
reifes Auto,ZAFIRA
FordMarkteintritt
2004
Volkswagen
Toyota2004, Hybrid-
fahrzeug PRIUS
VolvoPkw Sparte ab1999 bei Ford
RenaultMarkteintritt
2004; Koop. mitDe Nora
Peugeot-Citroen
Einsatzfeld Van,De Nora
Honda2005/6
Nissan
MazdaAnteil von Ford
33 %
FIAT
K
K
BallardPower
SystemsShell
E
K
K
K
BMW/RoverBSZ für Neben-
aggregate
E
E
K
Exxon
SiemensInternationalFuel Cells
Mobil
L = LieferabkommenE = EntwicklungsvertragK = Kooperation
L
L
Folie 40
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PSA
BMW RoverGM/Opel
Toyota Hyundai Renault Mazda EvoBus
DC
De Nora Siemens BallardIFC Delphi
Mitsubishi
FordVolvo
VW
Celanese
HondaMAN
FIAT
Nissan
Cooperation/involvement
own stack development
individual stacks delivered
fixed supply contracts
Fuel cell strategies of automobile manufacturersDate 2001
33% share in Mazda
Cooperation, sharesBallard, Ecostar, Xcellsis
Car production at FordFrench research initiative
Close cooperationbut each ownstack development
Plug Power
Folie 41
Fraunhofer
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Fuel cell strategies of automobile manufacturersDate 2003
PSA
BMW
GM/OpelToyota
Hyundai
Renault Mazda EvoBus
DC
Nuvera BallardUTC Delphi
Mitsubishi
FordVolvo
VW
Celanese
Honda
FIATNissan
Kooperation/Beteiligung
eigene Stackentwicklung
Einzelne Stacks geliefert
Feste Lieferverträge
33 % Anteil an MazdaEnge KooperationPkw Sparte bei FordFranzösische Forschungsinitiative
Enge Kooperationaber jeweils eigene Stackentwicklung
Plug Power
Daihatsu
Irisbus
Quelle: Projekt „Anforderungen an das Handwerk durch die Innovation Brennstoffzelle“
Folie 42
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
Relative Scientific and Technological Specialization Profiles of Japan, USA and EU Towards PEMFC and SOFC (out of a range of 7 types)
Source: Draft working paper of OECD secretariat 7/2003 in the framework of OECD/TIP case study on innovation in the energy sector
SOFCSOFCPEMFC PEMFC0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
Rel
atio
n of
sha
re in
sub
-fie
ld to
sha
re in
all
field
s Japan USA EU Germany
Publications 1990-2000 „Triadic“ patent families 1990-1996
average
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InstituteSystems andInnovation Research
43%
23%
40%
6%
11%
32%
13%
7%
63%
17%
19%
5%
14%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%Fahrzeugindustrie
Maschinenbau
Eisen, NE-Metalle
Chemie
Elektrotechnik
Verbrennungs-motor
BrennstoffzelleMethanoltank
BrennstoffzelleWasserstofftank
Potential changes in supplier structure
Autombile industry
Engineering
Iron, non-ferrous metals
Chemicals
Electrical engineering
Fuel cellMethanol tank
Fuel cellHydrogen tank
Combustionengine
Folie 44