October 9, 2014 -- American Encore - Statewide Dual-Frame Survey Among 600 Arizona LVs - ToPLINE...

the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of American Encore Statewide Dual-Frame Survey of 600 LVs in Arizona – TOPLINE DATA for Release October 2014

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the polling company, inc./WomanTrend on behalf of

American Encore

Statewide Dual-Frame Survey of 600 LVs in Arizona 85% Landline / 15% Cell

TOPLINE DATA For Release

Field Dates: October 6-8, 2014 Margin of Error: ±4%

**PLEASE NOTE: Response categories may not equal 100% due to rounding** SCREENING INTRODUCTION

1. Are you currently registered to vote here in Arizona as a (ROTATED) Republican, Democrat, Independent/Unaffiliated or are you not registered to vote at all here in Arizona?

38% YES, REPUBLICAN (CONTINUED) 32% YES, DEMOCRAT (CONTINUED) 30% YES, INDEPENDENT/UNAFFILIATED (CONTINUED)

2. This year, Arizona has elections for Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General,

Congress and other offices. Which of the following best describes your plans at this time…

84% TOTAL DEFINITELY/PROBABLY WILL VOTE IN THE ELECTION

(NET) 78% I WILL DEFINITELY VOTE IN THE ELECTION 6% I WILL PROBABLY VOTE IN THE ELECTION 13% I ALREADY VOTED THROUGH ABSENTEE OR EARLY VOTING

3% I AM NOT SURE YET OR UNDECIDED WHETHER TO VOTE

3. Into which of the following categories does your age fall?

5% 18-24 10% 25-34 13% 35-44 20% 45-54 21% 55-64 31% 65 AND ABOVE * REFUSED (VOL.)


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4. Would you describe your racial or ethnic background as… (READ LIST)

80% WHITE/CAUCASIAN 12% HISPANIC/LATINO 3% BLACK/AFRICAN-AMERICAN 1% ASIAN 1% NATIVE AMERICAN * MIDDLE EASTERN 2% OTHER, SPECIFIED (VOLUNTEERED) - DON’T KNOW (VOLUNTEERED) 3% REFUSED (VOLUNTEERED)

5. Region1 (RECORDED BY COUNTY FROM SAMPLE)

57% GREATER PHOENIX 23% GREATER TUCSON 15% NORTH 5% SOUTH

6. Gender (RECORDED BY OBSERVATION)

48% MALE 52% FEMALE

1 Greater Phoenix: Maricopa Greater Tucson: Pima, Pinal, Santa Cruz North: Apache, Coconino, Gila, Mohave, Navajo, Yavapai South: Cochise, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Yuma


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KEY ISSUES

7. Thinking about the upcoming elections, what are the two most important issues when you are deciding for whom to vote? (OPEN-ENDED, ACCEPTED UP TO TWO RESPONSES AND ENTERED IN TO PRE-CODED LIST.)

33% THE ECONOMY 25% EDUCATION/SCHOOL CHOICE/CHARTERS/COMMON CORE 17% IMMIGRATION 16% BORDER CONTROL/SECURITY 13% HEALTHCARE/OBAMACARE 10% JOBS AND UNEMPLOYMENT 8% GOVERNMENT SPENDING 7% TAXES 6% NATIONAL SECURITY AND TERRORISM 5% ETHICS 3% ABORTION (PRO-CHOICE) 3% MORAL ISSUES/FAMILY VALUES 2% ABORTION (PRO-LIFE) 2% GUN/2ND AMENDMENT RIGHTS 2% FOREIGN POLICY/AFFAIRS AND MILITARY ENGAGEMENTS 2% DEBT AND DEFICIT 1% ENERGY/GAS PRICES 1% REGULATIONS 1% OBAMA/ANTI-OBAMA 1% WOMEN’S ISSUES * COST OF LIVING * SOCIAL SECURITY * TERM LIMITS * ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS LIKE SOCIAL SECURITY AND

MEDICARE * ELDERLY CARE/SENIOR ISSUES * VETERANS ISSUES * TRADITIONAL MARRIAGE * MONETARY POLICY 5% OTHER (RECORDED VERBATIM) 6% DO NOT KNOW 3% REFUSED


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8. Which one of the following issues is the most important for your next Governor to address? (READ RESPONSES, ROTATED, ACCEPTED ONLY ONE)

28% IMMIGRATION/BORDER SECURITY 27% EDUCATION 17% THE ECONOMY 12% JOBS AND UNEMPLOYMENT 6% HEALTHCARE/OBAMACARE 4% TAXES 3% MORAL ISSUES/FAMILY VALUES 2% DO NOT KNOW (VOL.) 1% REFUSED (VOL.)

9. Do you (ROTATED) approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job

as U.S. President? (PROBED: And would that be STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT approve/disapprove?)

40% TOTAL APPROVE (NET) 22% STRONGLY APPROVE 18% SOMEWHAT APPROVE 56% TOTAL DISAPPROVE (NET) 8% SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE 48% STRONGLY DISAPPROVE 3% DO NOT KNOW/CANNOT JUDGE (VOL.) 1% REFUSED (VOL.)


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CANDIDATE IMAGES I am going to read you the names of a few people. After I read each name, first please tell me if you have heard of that person and then tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person. If you have no opinion of a person, or have never heard of a particular person, just tell me and we’ll move on. (RANDOMIZED ORDER OF NAMES) (ASKED FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE): And, do you have a STRONGLY (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person, or just a SOMEWHAT (favorable/unfavorable) opinion of that person?)

10. Doug Ducey (DEW-see)

40% TOTAL FAVORABLE (NET) 22% STRONGLY FAVORABLE 18% SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 38% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE (NET) 14% SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 26% STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 14% HEARD OF, NO OPINION 5% NEVER HEARD OF 1% DO NOT KNOW (VOL.) 1% REFUSED (VOL.)

11. Fred DuVal (Du - VAL)

36% TOTAL FAVORABLE (NET) 19% STRONGLY FAVORABLE 18% SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE 30% TOTAL UNFAVORABLE (NET) 14% SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE 16% STRONGLY UNFAVORABLE 22% HEARD OF, NO OPINION 10% NEVER HEARD OF 2% DO NOT KNOW (VOL.) * REFUSED (VOL.)


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12. Barry J. Hess


13. Michele Reagan


14. Terry Goddard



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15. Mark Brnovich (Bur-no-vich)


16. Felecia Rotellini


(ENDED RANDOMIZE)


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BALLOT TESTS

17. If the election for Arizona Governor were tomorrow, would you vote for (ROTATED) Republican Doug Ducey, Democrat Fred DuVal, or Libertarian Barry J. Hess?

(PROBED THOSE WHO SAID DUCEY/DUVAL/HESS: AND WOULD THAT BE DEFINITELY OR PROBABLY FOR [INSERT CANDIDATE]?) (PROBED THOSE WHO SAID UNDECIDED: TOWARD WHICH CANDIDATE DO YOU LEAN?)

46% TOTAL DOUG DUCEY (NET) 34% DEFINITELY DOUG DUCEY 8% PROBABLY DOUG DUCEY 4% LEAN DOUG DUCEY 37% TOTAL FRED DUVAL (NET) 28% DEFINITELY FRED DUVAL 6% PROBABLY FRED DUVAL 3% LEAN FRED DUVAL 5% TOTAL BARRY J. HESS (NET) 2% DEFINITELY BARRY J. HESS 2% PROBABLY BARRY J. HESS 1% LEAN BARRY J. HESS 10% HARD UNDECIDED/DO NOT KNOW (VOL.) * OTHER, SPECIFIED (RECORDED VERBATIM) (VOL.) * WOULD NOT VOTE (VOL.) 1% REFUSED (VOL.)


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18. If the election for Arizona’s Secretary of State were tomorrow, would you vote for (ROTATED) Republican Michele Reagan or Democrat Terry Goddard?

(PROBED THOSE WHO SAY REAGAN/GODDARD: AND WOULD THAT BE DEFINITELY OR PROBABLY FOR [INSERT CANDIDATE]?) (PROBED THOSE WHO SAY UNDECIDED: TOWARD WHICH CANDIDATE DO YOU LEAN?)

47% TOTAL TERRY GODDARD (NET) 33% DEFINITELY TERRY GODDARD 10% PROBABLY TERRY GODDARD 5% LEAN TERRY GODDARD 45% TOTAL MICHELE REAGAN (NET) 31% DEFINITELY MICHELE REAGAN 10% PROBABLY MICHELE REAGAN 4% LEAN MICHELE REAGAN 7% HARD UNDECIDED/DO NOT KNOW (VOL.) * OTHER, SPECIFIED (RECORDED VERBATIM) (VOL.) * WOULD NOT VOTE (VOL.) 25 REFUSED (VOL.)

19. And, if the election for Arizona Attorney General were tomorrow, would you vote for

(ROTATED) Republican Mark Brnovich or Democrat Felecia Rotellini?

(PROBED THOSE WHO SAY BRNOVICH/ROTELLINI: AND WOULD THAT BE DEFINITELY OR PROBABLY FOR [INSERT CANDIDATE]?) (PROBED THOSE WHO SAY UNDECIDED: TOWARD WHICH CANDIDATE DO YOU LEAN?)

43% TOTAL FELECIA ROTELLINI (NET) 29% DEFINITELY FELECIA ROTELLINI 11% PROBABLY FELECIA ROTELLINI 3% LEAN FELECIA ROTELLINI 41% TOTAL MARK BRNOVICH (NET) 30% DEFINITELY MARK BRNOVICH 8% PROBABLY MARK BRNOVICH 4% LEAN MARK BRNOVICH

14% HARD UNDECIDED/DO NOT KNOW (VOL.) - OTHER, SPECIFIED (RECORDED VERBATIM) (VOL.) * WOULD NOT VOTE (VOL.) 2% REFUSED (VOL.)


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20. And, in the election for your representative in the U.S. Congress, do you plan to vote for (ROTATED) the Republican candidate or the Democrat candidate?

(PROBED THOSE WHO SAY REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT: And would that be DEFINITELY or PROBABLY VOTE FOR [INSERT CANDIDATE]?) (PROBED THOSE WHO VOLUNTEER “UNDECIDED” OR “DO NOT KNOW”: TOWARD WHICH CANDIDATE DO YOU LEAN?)

44% TOTAL VOTE REPUBLICAN (NET) 34% DEFINITELY REPUBLICAN 8% PROBABLY REPUBLICAN 2% LEAN REPUBLICAN 37% TOTAL VOTE DEMOCRAT (NET) 27% DEFINITELY DEMOCRAT 7% PROBABLY DEMOCRAT 3% LEAN DEMOCRAT 13% HARD UNDECIDED/DO NOT KNOW (VOL.) 2% NEITHER (VOL.) 1% INDEPENDENT/THIRD PARTY/TEA PARTY (VOL.) 3% REFUSED (VOL.)


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ADDITIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS

21. Which of the following best describes you: (READ AND ROTATED)

65% MARRIED 13% SINGLE, NEVER MARRIED 11% WIDOWED 7% DIVORCED * SEPARATED 3% REFUSED (VOL.)

22. Do you have children under the age of 18 currently living in your home?

20% YES 78% NO 3% REFUSED (VOL.)

23. On the issue of abortion, do you consider yourself (ROTATED) pro-life or pro-choice?

44% PRO-LIFE 47% PRO-CHOICE 4% DO NOT KNOW (VOL.) 5% REFUSED (VOL.)

24. How long have you lived in Arizona?

* LESS THAN FIVE YEARS 6% 5-10 YEARS 23% 10-20 YEARS 49% MORE THAN 20 YEARS 19% MY ENTIRE LIFE 2% DON’T KNOW/REFUSED (VOL.)


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25. Thinking for a moment about your social, economic, and political views…Do you

consider yourself to be…? [IF CONSERVATIVE/LIBERAL, ASKED] And would you consider yourself to be VERY (conservative/liberal) or just SOMEWHAT (conservative/liberal)?

45% TOTAL CONSERVATIVE (NET) 24% VERY CONSERVATIVE 20% SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE 25% MODERATE 22% TOTAL LIBERAL (NET) 12% SOMEWHAT LIBERAL 10% VERY LIBERAL 2% LIBERTARIAN 6% DO NOT KNOW/REFUSED (VOL.)

26. In politics today, do you consider yourself to be a… (ROTATED) Republican,

Independent or Democrat? IF REPUBLICAN, ASKED: “Are you a Tea Party Republican, strong Republican or a not-so-strong Republican?” If DEMOCRAT, ASKED: “Are you a Progressive Democrat, strong Democrat or a not-so-strong Democrat?” IF “INDEPENDENT” ASKED: “Which way do you lean, or usually vote, the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

46% TOTAL REPUBLICAN (NET) 8% TEA PARTY REPUBLICAN 22% STRONG REPUBLICAN 10% NOT-SO-STRONG REPUBLICAN 7% INDEPENDENT LEANING REPUBLICAN 14% INDEPENDENT 34% TOTAL DEMOCRAT (NET) 9% INDEPENDENT LEANING DEMOCRAT 5% NOT-SO-STRONG DEMOCRAT 13% STRONG DEMOCRAT 8% PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRAT 1% OTHER (VOL.) 2% DO NOT KNOW (VOL.) 3% REFUSED (VOL.)

October 9, 2014 -- American Encore - Statewide Dual-Frame Survey Among 600 Arizona LVs - ToPLINE...

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