October 2019 POLITICAL MONITOR · LABOUR 24% GENERAL ELECTION % Oct ‘19 Johnson as PM (July 19)...
Transcript of October 2019 POLITICAL MONITOR · LABOUR 24% GENERAL ELECTION % Oct ‘19 Johnson as PM (July 19)...
1Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 1
October 2019
POLITICAL MONITOR
2Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 2
October 2019
VOTING
INTENTIONS
3Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Voting Intention: October 2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 791 Margin of
error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a
9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially
important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION
HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +14
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +17
41%
24%
20%
7%
3%
5%
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
LIB DEMS
BREXIT PARTY
GREEN
OTHER
41%
27%
17%
8%
3%
5%
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
LIB DEM
BREXIT PARTY
GREEN
OTHER
4Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in
General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May 1
5
Jul 15
Sep
15
No
v 1
5
Jan
16
Mar
16
May 1
6
Jul 16
Sep
16
No
v 1
6
Jan
17
Mar
17
May 1
7
Jul 17
Sep
17
No
v 1
7
Jan
18
Mar
18
May 1
8
Jul 18
Sep
18
No
v 1
8
Jan
19
Mar
19
May 1
9
Jul 19
Sep
19
Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)
CONSERVATIVE 41%
LABOUR 24%
GENERAL
ELECTION
%
Oct ‘19
Johnson as PM
(July 19)
Oct
19
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan
04
Ap
r 04
Jul 04
Oct
04
Jan
05
Ap
r 05
Jul 05
Oct
05
Jan
06
Ap
r 06
Jul 06
Oct
06
Jan
07
Ap
r 07
Jul 07
Oct
07
Jan
08
Ap
r 08
Jul 08
Oct
08
Jan
09
Ap
r 09
Jul 09
Oct
09
Jan
10
Ap
r 10
Jul 10
Oct
10
Jan
11
Ap
r 11
Jul 11
Oct
11
Jan
12
Ap
r 12
Jul 12
Oct
12
Jan
13
Ap
r 13
Jul 13
Oct
13
Jan
14
Ap
r 14
Jul 14
Oct
14
Jan
15
Ap
r 15
Jul 15
Oct
15
Jan
16
Ap
r 16
Jul 16
Oct
16
Jan
17
Ap
r 17
Jul 17
Oct
17
Jan
18
Ap
r 18
Jul 18
Oct
18
Jan
19
Ap
r 19
Jul 19
Oct
19
Miliband elected
(Sept 10)Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)Johnson as PM
(July 19)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – October ‘19
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in
General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE 41%
LABOUR 24%
UKIP 0%
GREEN 3%
LIB DEM 20%
GENERAL
ELECTION
%
Oct ‘19
THE BREXIT PARTY 7%
6Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 6
October 2019
SATISFACTION
WITH GOVERNMENT
AND PARTY
LEADERS
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Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentJo Swinson
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB.
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ LEADER OF THE BREXIT PARTY?.
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: October 2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+ 25-28 October 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and
% “dissatisfied”
75%
10%
15%
41%
30%
29%
DISSATISFIED
DON’T KNOW
SATISFIED
0% SWING
FROM SEP 2019-3% SWING
FROM SEP 2019
+6% SWING
FROM SEP 2019
NET=-60 NET= -12 NET=-55NET=+2
44%
10%
46%
19%
6%
74
%
Nigel Farage
51%
20%
29%
NET=-22
+10% SWING
FROM SEP 2019
-3.5% SWING
FROM SEP 2019
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ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY BORIS JOHNSON IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Boris Johnson
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
44% Dissatisfied
10% Don’t know
46% Satisfied
Satisfaction
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
NET = +2
October 2019 July 2019 – October 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
SATISFIED 46%
DISSATISFIED 44%
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ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY BORIS JOHNSON IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Boris Johnson
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
9% Dissatisfied
11% Don’t know
80% Satisfied
Satisfaction among Conservative supporters
Base: 369 Conservative party supporters 18+, 25-28 October 2019
NET = +71
October 2019 July 2019 – October 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
SATISFIED 80%
DISSATISFIED 9%
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HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
MAY
CAMERON
BROWN
MAJOR
BLAIR
THATCHER
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
NET S
ATIS
FA
CTIO
N
Johnson
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
JOHNSON
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HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?
Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019)
Boris Johnson’s Government
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT
NET S
ATIS
FA
CTIO
N
MAY’S GOV
BLAIR’S GOV
MAJOR’S GOV
CAMERON’S GOV
THATCHER’S GOV
BROWN’S GOV
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
JOHNSON’S GOV
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Jeremy Corbyn
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2019 September 2015 – October 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep
-15
Dec-
15
Mar-
16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec-
16
Mar-
17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Dec-
17
Mar-
18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Dec-
18
Mar-
19
Jun
-19
Sep
-19
.
SATISFIED 15%
DISSATISFIED 75%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = -60
Satisfaction
75% Dissatisfied
10% Don’t know
15% Satisfied
%
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+ 25-28 October 2019
Oct
-19
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HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019)
Corbyn
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER
NET S
ATIS
FA
CTIO
N
CORBYN
BLAIR
SMITH
KINNOCK
MILLIBAND
FOOT
CAMERON
DUNCAN-SMITH
HAGUE
HOWARD
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
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Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
15%
13%
21%
19%
16%
27%
23%
23%
36%
33%
42%
75%
69%
65%
56%
53%
61%
49%
45%
51%
41%
35%
% DISSATISFIED % SATISFIED
NET
SATISFIED
+7
-8
-15
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Note: Data was collected within a month of each Prime Minister taking office, apart from Margaret Thatcher who became PM in May 1979 but the first Ipsos MORI political monitor did not run
until August 1979. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Blair (Sep 96)
Smith (May 93)
Thatcher (Mar 77)
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.
Satisfaction with Leader of the Opposition
Worst score each received during their time as Leader of the Opposition
Cameron (Sep 07)
Howard (Jun 05)
Kinnock (Dec 88)
Duncan-Smith (Feb 03)
Hague (Jan 00)
Miliband (Nov 14)
Foot (Aug 82)
Corbyn (Oct 19)
-22
-26
-34
-37
-37
-44
-56
-60
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Jeremy Corbyn
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 195 Labour supporters 18+ 25-28 October 2019
October 2019 September 2015 – October 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep
-15
Dec-
15
Mar-
16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec-
16
Mar-
17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Dec-
17
Mar-
18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Dec-
18
Mar-
19
Jun
-19
Sep
-19
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = -3
Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters
49% Dissatisfied
5% Don’t know
46% Satisfied
SATISFIED 46%
DISSATISFIED 49%
%
Oct
-19
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ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JO SWINSON IS DOING HER JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.
Jo Swinson
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
41% Dissatisfied
30% Don’t know
29% Satisfied
NET = -12
Satisfaction
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
October 2019 July 2019 – October 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
SATISFIED 29%
DISSATISFIED 41%
%
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October 2019
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Dec-
07
Ap
r-08
Au
g-0
8
Dec-
08
Ap
r-09
Au
g-0
9
Dec-
09
Ap
r-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May-1
1
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May-1
2
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
May-1
3
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
May-1
4
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-15
Oct
-15
Feb
-16
Jun
-16
Oct
-16
Feb
-17
Jul-
17
Jan
-18
Jun
-18
Dec-
18
Jun
-19
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE
OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2019
EOI = -39
56%
19%
17%
8%
GET WORSE
STAY THE SAME
Don’t know
GET BETTER
Stay the same
Get worse
Improve
%
January 2007 – October 2019
Oct ‘19
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
Oct
-19
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DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE
OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan
1998
Oct
1998
Jul 1999
Ap
r 2000
Jan
2001
Oct
2001
Jul 2002
Ap
r 2003
Jan
2004
Oct
2004
Jul 2005
Ap
r 2006
Jan
2007
Oct
2007
Jul 2008
Ap
r 2009
Jan
2010
Oct
2010
Jul 2011
Ap
r 2012
Jan
2013
Oct
2013
Jul 2014
Ap
r 2015
Jan
2016
Oct
2016
Jul 2017
Ap
r 2018
Jan
2019
Oct
2019
NET OPTIMISM=-39
October ‘19
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October 2019
BREXIT
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Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
DO YOU THINK EACH OF
THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE
A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB
AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S
EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN
UNION?
c
Handling Britain’s
exit from the
European Union
31%
34%
38%
47%
55%
56%
53%
45%
Dec 2016
Mar 2018
Sept 2019
Oct 2019
GOOD JOB BAD JOB
BORIS JOHNSON
JEREMY CORBYN
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
12%
14%
11%
81%
77%
79%
May 2019
Sep 2019
Oct 2019
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Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
DO YOU THINK EACH OF
THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE
A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB
AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S
EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN
UNION?
c
Handling Britain’s
exit from the
European Union
43%
50%
71%
84%
47%
43%
19%
11%
Dec 2016
Mar 2018
Sept 2019
Oct 2019
GOOD JOB BAD JOB
BORIS JOHNSON
JEREMY CORBYN
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
32%
34%
37%
57%
48%
52%
May 2019
Sep 2019
Oct 2019
Among own party
supporters
Among Conservative party supporters
Among Labour party supporters
23Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT
FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION?
Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union The Government
BAD JOB 76%
GOOD JOB 18%
37%33% 36%
31%
38%
9%
48%53% 52%
58% 54%
85%
0
20
40
60
80
100 Oct ‘19
No
v-1
6
Dec-
16
Mar-
17
Jul-
17
Mar-
18
Mar-
19
Oct
-19
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
24Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
25%
62%
4%
9%
29%
47%
6%
19%
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT AND
THE EUROPEAN UNION HAVE REACHED AN
AGREEMENT ON THE TERMS OF BRITAIN’S
WITHDRAWAL FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION.
FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD,
DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE A GOOD THING
OR BAD THING FOR THE UK AS A WHOLE TO
WITHDRAW FROM THE EU ON THESE TERMS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
May’s Withdrawal
GOOD THING
BAD THING
NEITHER
DON’T KNOW
Agreement
Dec ‘18
Chequers
Plan
July ‘18Public opinion on
the Withdrawal
Agreement
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
*Chequers: And from what you know or have heard, do you
think Theresa May’s plan for Britain’s future relationship with
the European Union (also known as The Chequers plan) would
be a good thing or bad thing for the UK as a whole?
Johnson’s Withdrawal
Oct ‘19
Agreement
38%
44%
4%
13%
25Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
7%
44%
40%
9%
AND HOW MUCH, IF ANYTHING,
WOULD YOU SAY YOU KNOW
ABOUT THE PROPOSED
AGREEMENT ON THE TERMS OF
BRITAIN’S WITHDRAWAL FROM THE
EUROPEAN UNION?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
A GREAT DEAL
NOT VERY MUCH
DON’T KNOW
Public knowledge of
the Withdrawal
Agreement
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+ 25-28 October 2018
A FAIR AMOUNT
NOTHING AT ALL
A GREAT
DEAL/FAIR
AMOUNT
51%
NOT VERY
MUCH/NOTHING
AT ALL
49%
26Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
30%
39%
28%
3%
AS YOU MAY KNOW, BRITAIN WAS
SCHEDULED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION
ON OCTOBER 31ST. IF BRITAIN DOES NOT
LEAVE THE EU ON OCTOBER 31ST, DO YOU
THINK THAT WILL BE A GOOD THING OR A
BAD THING FOR THE COUNTRY, OR WILL IT
MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
GOOD THING
BAD THING
MAKES NO DIFFERENCE
DON’T KNOW
Impact of a Brexit
extension beyond
October 31st
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
27Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Responsibility for delaying Britain leaving the European Union
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 334 who think Brexit delay is a good thing, 389 who think Brexit delay is a bad thing, 25-28 October 2019
AND IF BRITAIN DOES NOT LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION BY 31ST OF OCTOBER, WHICH TWO OR THREE OF THE
FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK WOULD BE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DELAY?
3%
2%
13%
6%
28%
13%
6%
18%
14%
19%
34%
19%
44%
2%
2%
3%
10%
8%
18%
31%
20%
26%
20%
9%
42%
56%
Among allAmong those who think the Brexit
delay is a good thing
Among those who think the Brexit
delay is a bad thing
4%
1%
3%
8%
10%
16%
17%
17%
18%
19%
19%
21%
30%
50%
Don't know
No-one
Other
Brexit campaigners
Judges and the courts
The Conservative Party
The European Union
The speaker
The Labour Party
Remain Campaigners
Other opposition parties
Boris Johnson
Jeremy Corbyn
MPs in Parliament
28Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
8%
25%
32%
15%
20%
SINCE BORIS JOHNSON BECAME
PRIME MINISTER, WHAT EFFECT, IF
ANY, DO YOU THINK HE HAS HAD
ON BRITAIN’S STANDING IN THE
WORLD? DO YOU THINK HE HAS:
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
IMPROVED IT A LOT
MADE IT A LITTLE WORSE
DON’T KNOW
Boris Johnson’s
impact on Britain’s
standing in the world
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+ 25-28 October 2018
IMPROVED IT A LITTLE
MADE IT A LITTLE WORSE
IMPROVED BRITAIN’S
STANDING
33%
MADE BRITAIN’S
STANDING WORSE
35%
MADE NO DIFFERENCE
29Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
Budget (use different pic)
October 2019
THE ECONOMY
30Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
27%
16%
54%
3%
23%
36%
37%
4%
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT 12
MONTHS, DO YOU THINK THE BRITISH
ECONOMY WILL BE BETTER OR
WORSE OFF THAN MOST OF THE
OTHER EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, OR
WILL IT BE ABOUT THE SAME?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
BETTER OFF
WORSE OFF
ABOUT THE SAME
DON’T KNOW
Nov ‘11Oct ‘19Future of the British
economy compared
to Europe
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
31Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Government’s
performance
managing the
economy
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
SINCE THE GOVERNMENT
UNDER BORIS JOHNSON WAS
FORMED IN JULY, DO YOU THINK
THE GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A
GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT
MANAGING THE ECONOMY?
c 36%
47%
56%
42%
51%
40%
55%
46%
37%
47%
30%
41%
GOOD JOB BAD JOB
October 2019
November 2016
May 2016
March 2015
March 2014
October 2011
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
-1
NET
GOOD JOB
+21
-5
+19
+1
-19
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Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
SINCE THE GOVERNMENT UNDER
BORIS JOHNSON WAS FORMED IN
JULY, DO YOU THINK THE
GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD
JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING
TAXATION AND EXPENDITURE?
c
Government’s
performance
handling taxation
and expenditure
32%
35%
37%
32%
60%
56%
54%
47%
GOOD JOB BAD JOB
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
October 2019
March 2015
March 2014
October 2011
NET
GOOD JOB
-15
-17
-21
-28
33Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
60%
50%
60%
52%
71%
62%59%
37% 36%
47%
56%
42%
51%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Ap
r-98
Oct
-98
Ap
r-99
Oct
-99
Ap
r-00
Oct
-00
Ap
r-01
Oct
-01
Ap
r-02
Oct
-02
Ap
r-03
Oct
-03
Ap
r-04
Oct
-04
Ap
r-05
Oct
-05
Ap
r-06
Oct
-06
Ap
r-07
Oct
-07
Ap
r-08
Oct
-08
Ap
r-09
Oct
-09
Ap
r-10
Oct
-10
Ap
r-11
Oct
-11
Ap
r-12
Oct
-12
Ap
r-13
Oct
-13
Ap
r-14
Oct
-14
Ap
r-15
Oct
-15
Ap
r-16
Oct
-16
Ap
r-17
Oct
-17
Ap
r-18
Oct
-18
Ap
r-19
Oct
-19
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
LABOUR GOVERNMENT (1997-2010) CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT (2010-)
% G
OO
D J
OB
April 1998 – October 2019
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
SINCE THE GOVERNMENT UNDER BORIS JOHNSON WAS FORMED IN JULY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD
JOB OR A BAD JOB AT MANAGING THE ECONOMY?
40%
Oct ‘19
Government’s performance managing the economy
34Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
43%
44%
36%34%
45%
52%
43%
31% 32%35%
37%32%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ap
r-98
Oct
-98
Ap
r-99
Oct
-99
Ap
r-00
Oct
-00
Ap
r-01
Oct
-01
Ap
r-02
Oct
-02
Ap
r-03
Oct
-03
Ap
r-04
Oct
-04
Ap
r-05
Oct
-05
Ap
r-06
Oct
-06
Ap
r-07
Oct
-07
Ap
r-08
Oct
-08
Ap
r-09
Oct
-09
Ap
r-10
Oct
-10
Ap
r-11
Oct
-11
Ap
r-12
Oct
-12
Ap
r-13
Oct
-13
Ap
r-14
Oct
-14
Ap
r-15
Oct
-15
Ap
r-16
Oct
-16
Ap
r-17
Oct
-17
Ap
r-18
Oct
-18
Ap
r-19
Oct
-19
Government’s performance handling taxation and expenditure
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
LABOUR GOVERNMENT (1997-2010) CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT (2010-)
% G
OO
D J
OB
April 1998 – October 2019
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
32%
SINCE THE GOVERNMENT UNDER BORIS JOHNSON WAS FORMED IN JULY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A
GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING TAXATION AND EXPENDITURE?
Oct ‘19
35Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY SAJID JAVID IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR
OF THE EXCHEQUER?
Sajid Javid
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
37%
32%
30%
DISSATISFIED
SATISFIEDDON’T KNOW
NET = 5
66%9%
25%
Among all Among Conservative party supporters
DON’T KNOW
DISSATISFIED
SATISFIED
NET = 57
Satisfaction
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
36Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY SAJID JAVID IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR
OF THE EXCHEQUER?
Satisfaction with the Chancellor of the Exchequer
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar-
76
Mar-
77
Ap
r-78
Jul-
80
Mar-
82
Jun
-83
Mar-
85
Mar-
86
Mar-
87
Mar-
88
Mar-
89
Mar-
90
Mar-
91
Mar-
92
Mar-
93
Dec-
93
Dec-
94
No
v-9
5
Dec-
95
No
v-9
6
Dec-
96
Jul-
97
Feb
-98
Mar-
98
Mar-
99
Feb
-00
Mar-
00
Jul-
00
Sep
-00
No
v-0
0
Mar-
01
Ap
r-02
Ap
r-03
Mar-
04
No
v-0
5
Feb
-06
Dec-
06
Ap
r-07
Mar-
08
Mar-
10
Jun
-10
Mar-
11
Dec-
11
Ap
r-12
Mar-
13
Ap
r-14
Mar-
15
Jul-
15
No
v-1
5
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
No
v-1
6
Mar-
17
No
v-1
7
No
v-1
8
Oct
-19
HEALEY HOWE LAWSON MAJOR LAMONT CLARKE BROWN DARLING OSBORNE HAMMOND
% S
AT
ISFIE
D
March 1976 – October 2019
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
JAVID
37Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE
THE MOST CAPABLE CHANCELLOR,
THE CONSERVATIVE’S SAJID JAVID
OR LABOUR’S JOHN MCDONNELL?
Most capable
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
35%
36%
29%
34%
35%
36%
40%
38%
41%
46%
46%
41%
45%
36%
35%
37%
34%
38%
35%
29%
33%
30%
29%
28%
32%
24%
March 2011
March 2012
June 2012
December 2012
June 2013
August 2013
December 2013
March 2014
March 2015
February 2016
November 2016
November 2017
October 2019
Sajid Javid John McDonnell
Philip Hammond John McDonnell
George Osborne Ed Balls
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
George Osborne John McDonnell
Chancellor of
the Exchequer
October 2019
38Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
I’D LIKE YOU TO THINK ABOUT HOW MUCH THE GOVERNMENT SPENDS ON PUBLIC SERVICES, WHICH IS FUNDED BY TAXATION OR
GOVERNMENT BORROWING. WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING OPTIONS, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO? AND
WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT WILL DO?
Government spending: increase, maintain or reduce?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
.
GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO
INCREASE SPENDING ON PUBLIC SERVICES
GOVERNMENT BORROWING
EVEN IF THAT MEANS HIGHER TAXES OR MORE
KEEP SPENDING ON PUBLIC SERVICES AT
THE CURRENT LEVEL
REDUCE SPENDING ON PUBLIC SERVICES, TO
ALLOW FOR TAX CUTS OR LESS
GOVERNMENT BORROWING
DON’T KNOW
7%
30%
28%
35%
3%
10%
31%
56%
7%
33%
36%
24%
6%
8%
20%
66%
October 2019 October 2018
The Government should do
They will do
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 25-28 October 2019
39Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 39
October 2018Ipsos MORIOctober 2019 Political Monitor
Gideon Skinner
Research Director
Keiran Pedley
Research Director
Glenn Gottfried
Research Manager
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