Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - February 2016

2016 POLITICAL MONITOR 18.02.2016

VOTING INTENTIONS

Voting Intention

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

39%

35%

10%

3% 7%

6%

All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention

Conservative lead = +4 Conservative lead = +6

CONSERVATIVE

LABOUR

UKIP

GREEN

LIB DEM

OTHER

39%

33%

12%

3% 6%

7%

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 724. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.

3

SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

Satisfaction with leaders and the Government

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied

5


HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?

-3% swing from January 2016

-1.5% swing from January 2016

+1.5% swing from January 2016



-15 Net -21 Net -15 Net -14 Net -26 Net SATISFIED 39% SATISFIED 30% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 20% SATISFIED 34%

DISSATISFIED 54% DISSATISFIED 51% DISSATISFIED 48% DISSATISFIED 34% DISSATISFIED 60%

Satisfaction with Party leaders Feb’09 – Feb’16

Base: c.1,000 British adults each month

6 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS

RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

39% 33%

CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE

30%

20%

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers


7 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB

AS PRIME MINISTER?


CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER

Ne

t sa

tisfa

ctio

n

Number of months from becoming Prime Minister

Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

David Cameron (satisfaction)

Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016

8 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


39%

54%

7%

February 2016 May 2006 –February 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Ma

y-0

6A

ug-0

6N

ov-0

6M

ay-0

7A

ug-0

7D

ec-0

7M

ar-

08

Jun

-08

Se

p-0

8D

ec-0

8M

ar-

09

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9D

ec-0

9M

ar-

10

Jun

-10

Oct-

10

Jan

-11

Ap

r-11

Jul-

11

Oct-

11

Jan

-12

Ap

r-12

Jul-

12

Oct-

12

Jan

-13

Ap

r-13

Jul-

13

Oct-

13

Jan

-14

Ap

r-14

Jul-

14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Jul-

15

Nov-1

5F

eb-1

6


SATISFIED 39%

DISSATISFIED 54%

DON’T KNOW 7%

Net = -15

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)

Base: 319 Conservative supporters18+, 13th – 16th February 2016

9 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?


79%

17%

4%

February 2016 May 2006 – February 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ma

y 0

6

Oct

06

Ma

y 0

7

Se

p 0

7

Fe

b 0

8

Jun

08

Oct-

08

Fe

b-0

9

Jun

-09

Oct-

09

Fe

b-1

0

Jun

-10

Jan

-11

Ma

y-1

1

Se

p-1

1

Jan

-12

Ma

y-1

2

Se

p-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

y-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Jan

-14

Ma

y-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Jan

-15

Ap

r-15

Oct-

15

Fe

b-1

6


SATISFIED 79%

DISSATISFIED 17%

DON’T KNOW 4%

Net = +62

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

30%

51%

19%

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

10 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?


February 2016

SATISFIED 30%

DISSATISFIED 51%

DON’T KNOW 19%

Net = -21


September 2015 – February 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

56% 31%

13%

Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)

11 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 299 Labour supporters 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016.

SATISFIED 56%

DISSATISFIED 31%

DON’T KNOW 13%

Net = +25

February 2016 September 2015 – February 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

20%

34%

46%

Tim Farron (satisfaction)


12 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


February 2016

SATISFIED 20%

DISSATISFIED 34%

DON’T KNOW 46%

Net = -14


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

58% 21%

21%

Tim Farron (satisfaction)

Base: 74 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016

N.B. small base size, indicative only.

13 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?


February 2016

SATISFIED 58%

DISSATISFIED 21%

DON’T KNOW 21%

Net = +37


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Se

p-1

5

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ma

r-1

3A

pr-

13

Ma

y-1

3Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3S

ep-1

3O

ct-

13

Nov-1

3D

ec-1

3Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4M

ar-

14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4S

ep-1

4O

ct-

14

Nov-1

4D

ec-1

4Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

2A

pr-

15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Se

p-1

5O

ct-

15

Nov-1

5D

ec-1

5Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)


14 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


33%

48%

19%

February 2016 March 2013 – February 2016

SATISFIED 33%

DISSATISFIED 48%

DON’T KNOW 19%

Net = -15

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Ma

r-1

3A

pr-

13

Ma

y-1

3Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3S

ep-1

3O

ct-

13

Nov-1

3D

ec-1

3Jan

-14

Fe

b-1

4M

ar-

14

Ap

r-14

Ma

y-1

4Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4S

ep-1

4O

ct-

14

Nov-1

4D

ec-1

4Jan

-15

Fe

b-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

2A

pr-

15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Se

p-1

5O

ct-

15

Nov-1

5D

ec-1

5Jan

-16

Fe

b-1

6

Nigel Farage (satisfaction)

Base: 73 UKIP supporters 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016

N.B. small base size, indicative only.

15 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB

AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?


74%

22%

4%

February 2016 March 2013 – February 2016

SATISFIED 74%

DISSATISFIED 22%

DON’T KNOW 4%

Net = +52 Dissatisfied

Satisfied

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM

Economic Optimism Index


17 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL

IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


February 2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ap

r-04

Jan

-05

Oct-

05

Se

p-0

6

Au

g-0

7

Jun

-08

Ma

r-0

9

De

c-0

9

Oct-

10

Jul-

117

Ap

r-12

Jan

-13

Oct-

13

Jul-

14

Ap

r-15

2

Fe

b-1

6

IMPROVE 25%

STAY THE SAME 26%

GET WORSE 44%

DON’T KNOW 5%

EOI = -19

The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index


18 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL

IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?


-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

Jan

19

98

Au

g 1

998

Ma

r 1

99

9

Oct

19

99

Ma

y 2

00

0

De

c 2

000

Jul 20

01

Fe

b 2

002

Se

p 2

002

Ap

r 20

03

No

v 2

003

Jun

20

04

Jan

20

05

Au

g 2

005

Ma

r 2

00

6

Oct

20

06

Ma

y 2

00

7

De

c 2

007

Jul 20

08

Fe

b 2

009

Se

p 2

009

Ap

r 20

10

No

v 2

010

Jun

20

11

Jan

20

12

Au

g 2

012

Ma

r 2

01

3

Oct

20

13

Ma

y 2

01

4

De

c 2

014

Jul 20

15

Fe

b 2

016

-19

EUROPE

61

52 53 50 51

27

39 36

38 36

12 9

11 12 13

Jun-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16

Stay in Get out Don’t know

European referendum

Base: 504 British adults 18+, 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016

20 IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?


Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?

Trend since 1977

21 IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?

26%

60% 63%

52% 49%

53% 51%

41%

61%

51%

65%

29% 27% 36% 35%

32%

39%

49%

27%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Feb

-78

Feb

-79

Feb

-80

Feb

-81

Feb

-82

Feb

-83

Feb

-84

Feb

-85

Feb

-86

Feb

-87

Feb

-88

Feb

-89

Feb

-90

Feb

-91

Feb

-92

Feb

-93

Feb

-94

Feb

-95

Feb

-96

Feb

-97

Feb

-98

Feb

-99

Feb

-00

Feb

-01

Feb

-02

Feb

-03

Feb

-04

Feb

-05

Feb

-06

Feb

-07

Feb

-08

Feb

-09

Feb

-10

Feb

-11

Feb

-12

Feb

-13

Feb

-14

Feb

-15

Feb

-16

Base: 504 British adults 18+, 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

STAY IN GET OUT

EU Referendum question:

Should the UK remain a member of the EU?

Base: 497 British adults 18+, 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016

22 SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE


October 2015

36%

52%

12%

32%

58%

10%

REMAIN LEAVE DON’T KNOW

EUROPEAN UNION?

December 2015

36%

55%

9%

January 2016

36%

54%

10%

February 2016

63%

35%

2%

57%

40%

3%

58%

39%

3%

Have the EU referendum voters decided yet? AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017.


October 2015

DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW

23

HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO [REFERENDUM VOTE AT Q9A/B – REMAIN/LEAVE] THE EUROPEAN UNION

OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?

Base: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote: 897 British adults 18+13th – 16th February 2016

919 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 918 British adults 18+ giving an opinion, 17th – 19th October 2015

January 2016 February 2016

20

24 26

25 27

37 36

37 38

35

32 32 30

26

29

6 5

4 5 5

4 3 3

5 4

Jun-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16

Not confident at all Not very confident Fairly confident Very confident Don’t know

Confidence in Cameron’s ability to get a good EU

deal for Britain


24 PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?


CONFIDENT 38

NOT CONFIDENT 57

CONFIDENT 37

NOT CONFIDENT 60

CONFIDENT 34

NOT CONFIDENT 63

CONFIDENT 31

NOT CONFIDENT 63

CONFIDENT 34

NOT CONFIDENT 62

62%

26%

12%

Predicted outcome

25 THINKING AHEAD TO THE REFERENDUM ON EUROPEAN UNION MEMBERSHIP, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING OUTCOMES DO YOU THINK IS MOST LIKELY?

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016

BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO REMAIN A MEMBER

OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO LEAVE THE

EUROPEAN UNION DON’T KNOW

February 2016

62%

30%

8%

October 2015

28%

8%

52%

12%

Right time for a referendum?

26 DAVID CAMERON IS REPORTED TO BE PLANNING TO HOLD THE REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ON JUNE 23RD THIS YEAR. DO YOU THINK THIS IS TOO EARLY, TOO LATE OR THE RIGHT TIME TO HOLD THE REFERENDUM?


TOO EARLY TOO LATE THE RIGHT TIME DON’T KNOW

February 2016

44%

32%

28%

28%

27%

23%

22%

21%

20%

1%

16%

4%

David Cameron, the Prime Minister

Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London

Theresa May, the Home Secretary

George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer

Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party

Stuart Rose, former chairman of Marks & Spencer and leader of the BritainStronger in Europe campaign

Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party

Lord Nigel Lawson, the former Chancellor and chairman of the Vote Leavecampaign

Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP

Other

None of them

Don’t know

Importance of individuals in deciding how to vote

27 WHO OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, WILL BE IMPORTANT TO YOU IN DECIDING HOW TO VOTE IN THE REFERENDUM ON EUROPEAN UNION MEMBERSHIP? PLEASE CHOOSE ALL THAT APPLY


February 2016

43%

13%

29%

10%

5%

Government ministers should be allowed to campaign for either side now

Government ministers should be allowed to campaign for either sideimmediately after the deal is finalised

Government ministers should be allowed to campaign for either side a fewdays after the deal is finalised, to give David Cameron time to present it

first

Government minsters should not be allowed to campaign against theofficial government position at all

Don’t know

Ministerial campaigning

28 AS YOU MAY KNOW, DAVID CAMERON HAS SAID THAT GOVERNMENT MINISTERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO CAMPAIGN FOR EITHER SIDE IN THE EU REFERENDUM, EVEN IF THEY ARE OPPOSED TO THE OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT POSITION, BUT THAT THEY MAY NOT DO SO UNTIL HIS NEGOTIATIONS TO CHANGE BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU HAVE BEEN FINALISED. WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS IS CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW:


February 2016

CHANCELLOR

Satisfaction with George Osborne

30 CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY GEORGE OSBORNE IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?

Source: Ipsos MORI

SATISFIED DISSATISFIED DON’T KNOW


47

43 44

40

44 42

44 46

9

15 12 13

Apr-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Feb-16

Capability as Chancellor

31 WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE CHANCELLOR, THE CONSERVATIVE’S GEORGE OSBORNE, OR LABOUR’S JOHN MCDONNELL?

Source: Ipsos MORI

GEORGE OSBOURNE

JOHN MCDONNELL (ED BALLS PRE

2016) NEITHER DON’T KNOW


38 41

46

33 30 29

14

18

10

15

10

15

Mar-14 Mar-15 Feb-16

2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - February 2016

News & Politics

Transcript of Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - February 2016