Oct. 2014 civil beat poll full results
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Transcript of Oct. 2014 civil beat poll full results
CIVIL BEAT POLLQUESTIONNAIREOctober 16 - 19, 2014
6) There is also an election for U.S. Senate between Brian Schatz and Cam Cavasso [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting?
1) Aloha, we’re conducting a short survey about the upcoming election in Hawaii--including the race for Governor that includes David Ige, Mufi Hannemann, and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated]. Early voting has already started, and voting will end on November 4th. First, have you already voted early, by mail or at a walk-in voting center, have you note voted yet but are planning to vote early, are you planning to vote on Election Day, are you not sure when you will vote, or are you not likely to vote?
2) Who are you supporting in the race for Governor between Democrat David Ige, Independent candidate Mufi Hannemann, Liberatarian Jeff Davis, and Republican Duke Ainoa [candidate name order rotated]?
3) About how recently did you decide to support him? Within the past two weeks? Within the past month? Or have you supported him for more than a month?
4) If didn't select Ige or Aiona in Q2: If the election for Governor were only between David Ige and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated], with no other candidates, what would you do?
5) No matter which candidate you support for Governor, who do you thik is most likely to win? Your best guess is fine.
10) If Voted in Democratic Primary Only: In the Democratic primary for Governor, did you vote for David Ige, or Neil Abercrombie [candidate name order rotated]?
7CD1a) First Congressional District Only: There is also an election for U.S. Congress in the First Congressional District between Mark Takai and Charles Djou [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting?
7CD1b) First Congressional District Only: About how recently did you decide to support him? Within the past two weeks? Within the past month? Or have you supported him for more than a month?
7CD2) Second Congressional District Only: There isl also an election for U.S. Congress in the Second Congressional District between Tulsi Gabbard and Kawika Crowley [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting?
8) There will also be a number of proposed amendments to Hawaii’s Constitution on the November ballot… One of them would amend Hawaii’s constitution to allow the state to use public funds to help pay for privately run early education programs for children in the years before they start Kindergarten. Would you most likely vote for this amendment, vote against this amendment, or not vote either way on this amendment?
9) Please think back to the Primary elections that took place in August. Did you vote in the Democratic primary, the Republican primary, or neither one?
Demographic Questions
1) Gender
2) Age
3) Ethnicity
4) Political ideology
5) Party I.D.
7) Are you, or a member of your immediate family a member of a labor union?
8) Annual household income
9) County/Congressional District [on file]
6) Have you, or a member of your immediate family such as a spouse, sibling, parent, or child, served in the U.S. Military?
STATEWIDE RESULTS1,221 Likely General Election VotersMargin of Error: +/-‐ 2.8%October 16 -‐19, 201470% Landlines, 30% Cell Phones
GovernorIge 40%Aiona 34%Hannemann 11%Davis 6%Undecided 8%
No matter which candidate you support for Governor, who do you think is most likely to win? Gov_PredictIge 48%Aiona 27%Hannemann 8%Davis 6%No Prediction 12%
Subsample = 311Gov_Two CandidatesIge 27%Aiona 26%Niether 22%Unsure 25%
Who are you supporting in the race for Governor between Democrat David Ige, Independent candidate Mufi Hannemann, Liberatarian Jeff Davis, and Republican Duke Ainoa [candidate name order rotated]?
If didn't select Ige or Aiona: If the election for Governor were only between David Ige and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated], with no other candidates, what would you do?
Senate OverallSchatz 55%Cavasso 29%Unsure 16%
School_FundingFor 34%Against 50%Abstain 7%Unsure 9%
There is also an election for U.S. Senate between Brian Schatz and Cam Cavasso [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting?
There will also be a number of proposed amendments to Hawaii’s Constitution on the November ballot… One of them would amend Hawaii’s constitution to allow the state to use public funds to help pay for privately run early education programs for children in the years before they start Kindergarten. Would you most likely vote for this amendment, vote against this amendment, or not vote either way on this amendment?
604 Likely General Election Voters in the First Cogressional DistrictMargin of Error: +/-‐ 4.0%October 16 -‐19, 2014
CD1Takai 45%Djou 45%Unsure 9%
517 Likely General Election Voters in the Second Cogressional DistrictMargin of Error: +/-‐ 4.3%October 16 -‐19, 2014
CD2Gabbard 69%Crowley 19%Unsure 12%
First Congressional District Only: There is also an election for U.S. Congress in the First Congressional District between Mark Takai and Charles Djou [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting?
Second Congressional District Only: There isl also an election for U.S. Congress in the Second Congressional District between Tulsi Gabbard and Kawika Crowley [candidate name order rotated]. Which candidate are you supporting?
STATEWIDE DEMOGRAPHICSGenderMale 47%Female 52%Refused 1%
AgeUnder 50 26%50 or older 74%
EthnicityCaucasian 37%Japanese 29%Filipino 8%Hawaiian 10%Chinese 6%Hispanic 1%Other/Mixed 9%Refused 0%
County_CDOahu_1 52%Oahu_2 17%Hawaii 15%Maui 11%Kauai 5%
Political OrientationLiberal 27%Moderate 31%Conservative 28%Unsure 14%
Party IDDemocrat 49%Republican 25%Independent 21%Unsure 5%
Military FamilyYes 58%No 39%Refused 3%
Union FamilyYes 35%No 61%Refused 4%
Household IncomeLess than $50,000 28%$50,000 -‐ $100,000 33%More than $100,000 19%Refused 19%
CD1 DEMOGRAPHICSGenderMale 48%Female 52%
AgeUnder 50 31%50 or older 69%
EthnicityCaucasian 27%Japanese 36%Filipino 11%Hawaiian 7%Chinese 8%Hispanic 2%Other/Mixed 10%
PoliticsLiberal 26%Moderate 31%Conservative 28%Unsure 14%
Party_IDDemocrat 45%Republican 27%Independent 23%Unsure 5%
Military FamilyYes 58%No 39%Refused 3%
Union FamilyYes 35%No 61%Refused 4%
Household IncomeLess than $50,000 27%$50,000 -‐ $100,000 30%$100,000+ 23%Refused 20%
CD2 DEMOGRAPHICSGenderMale 47%Female 53%
AgeUnder 50 21%50 or older 79%
EthnicityCaucasian 47%Japanese 21%Filipino 5%Hawaiian 13%Chinese 4%Hispanic 1%Other/Mixed 9%
County_CDOahu_2 35%Hawaii 31%Maui 23%Kauai 11%
PoliticsLiberal 29%Moderate 31%Conservative 27%Unsure 13%
Party_IDDemocrat 54%Republican 24%Independent 18%Unsure 4%
Military FamilyYes 59%No 39%Refused 2%
Union FamilyYes 35%No 61%Refused 4%
Household IncomeLess than $50,000 30%$50,000 -‐ $100,000 37%$100,000+ 15%Refused 18%
GOVERNOR CROSSTABSGovernor Male FemaleIge 41% 40%Aiona 33% 35%Hannemann 12% 11%Davis 6% 6%Undecided 7% 8%
Governor Under 50 50 or olderIge 37% 44%Aiona 40% 34%Hannemann 10% 11%Davis 5% 4%Undecided 7% 7%
Governor Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/MixedIge 47% 49% 33% 28% 34% 36% 28%Aiona 35% 24% 42% 48% 42% 43% 35%Hannemann 9% 14% 11% 14% 7% 14% 12%Davis 5% 8% 3% 3% 1% 3% 6%Undecided 5% 5% 11% 8% 16% 5% 19%
Governor Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui KauaiIge 38% 39% 49% 40% 46%Aiona 37% 35% 31% 29% 24%Hannemann 11% 12% 10% 15% 9%Davis 5% 6% 8% 4% 13%Undecided 9% 8% 3% 12% 8%
Governor Liberal Moderate Conservative UnsureIge 69% 48% 16% 26%Aiona 8% 30% 65% 30%Hannemann 12% 11% 11% 13%Davis 6% 4% 5% 6%Undecided 4% 7% 3% 24%
Governor Democrat Republican Independent UnsureIge 66% 15% 24% 19%Aiona 13% 68% 47% 16%Hannemann 13% 9% 14% 2%Davis 3% 3% 10% 16%Undecided 6% 5% 6% 48%
Governor Military Family Not a Military FamilyIge 43% 42%Aiona 35% 32%Hannemann 11% 12%Davis 4% 6%Undecided 7% 7%
Governor Union Family Not a Union FamilyIge 48% 41%Aiona 27% 37%Hannemann 13% 11%Davis 7% 4%Undecided 4% 8%
Governor Less than $50,000 $50,000 -‐ $100,000 $100,000+Ige 45% 46% 46%Aiona 31% 35% 29%Hannemann 12% 11% 13%Davis 8% 3% 4%Undecided 4% 4% 7%
Subsample = 311Governor_TwoCandidates Hannemann Davis UndecidedIge 39% 26% 11%Aiona 32% 36% 9%Neither 23% 29% 15%Unsure 6% 8% 65%
Subsample = 814Governor Ige Abercrombie UnsureIge 53% 62% 16%Aiona 26% 13% 39%Hannemann 10% 15% 8%Davis 6% 3% 10%Undecided 5% 6% 26%
Gov_Decide Ige Aiona Hannemann DavisTwo weeks 22% 17% 36% 30%One month 21% 15% 30% 23%Month plus 56% 66% 31% 32%Unsure 1% 2% 3% 15%
Gov_Predict Ige Aiona Hannemann Davis UndecidedIge 83% 16% 32% 58% 26%Aiona 4% 64% 15% 8% 9%Hannemann 3% 2% 41% 12% 7%Davis 4% 7% 3% 15% 3%No Prediction 6% 11% 9% 7% 56%
If didn't select Ige or Aiona: If the election for Governor were only between David Ige and Duke Aiona [candidate name order rotated], with no other candidates, what would you do?
If Voted in Democratic Primary Only: In the Democratic primary for Governor, did you vote for David Ige, or Neil Abercrombie [candidate name order rotated]?
SENATE CROSSTABSSenate Male FemaleSchatz 53% 58%Cavasso 33% 25%Unsure 14% 17%
Senate Under 50 50 or olderSchatz 48% 58%Cavasso 33% 28%Unsure 20% 14%
Senate Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/MixedSchatz 60% 59% 51% 49% 43% 55% 48%Cavasso 29% 26% 28% 41% 30% 38% 28%Unsure 11% 15% 21% 10% 27% 7% 24%
Senate Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui KauaiSchatz 52% 51% 66% 57% 58%Cavasso 29% 32% 25% 30% 23%Unsure 19% 17% 9% 12% 20%
Senate Liberal Moderate Conservative UnsureSchatz 83% 61% 25% 50%Cavasso 8% 24% 63% 19%Unsure 9% 15% 12% 32%
Senate Democrat Republican Independent UnsureSchatz 79% 26% 39% 46%Cavasso 10% 58% 46% 7%Unsure 11% 16% 15% 47%
Senate Military Family Not a Military FamilySchatz 55% 58%Cavasso 32% 26%Unsure 14% 16%
Senate Union Family Not a Union FamilySchatz 63% 53%Cavasso 26% 31%Unsure 11% 16%
Senate Less than $50,000 $50,000 -‐ $100,000 $100,000+Schatz 58% 57% 63%Cavasso 28% 32% 30%Unsure 14% 12% 7%
SCHOOL FUNDING CROSSTABSSchool_Funding Male FemaleFor 32% 36%Against 56% 46%Abstain 7% 7%Unsure 5% 11%
School_Funding Under 50 50 or olderFor 29% 37%Against 50% 51%Abstain 9% 4%Unsure 11% 7%
School_Funding Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/MixedFor 39% 29% 41% 45% 24% 26% 28%Against 50% 56% 36% 48% 45% 58% 50%Abstain 3% 9% 13% 1% 6% 11% 11%Unsure 7% 6% 10% 6% 26% 5% 12%
School_Funding Oahu_1 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui KauaiFor 30% 31% 42% 38% 47%Against 51% 53% 51% 45% 39%Abstain 8% 6% 3% 11% 2%Unsure 10% 10% 4% 6% 12%
School_Funding Liberal Moderate Conservative UnsureFor 44% 27% 34% 35%Against 45% 56% 55% 39%Abstain 6% 8% 6% 5%Unsure 5% 9% 5% 21%
School_Funding Democrat Republican Independent UnsureFor 38% 31% 32% 31%Against 50% 53% 54% 26%Abstain 6% 8% 6% 5%Unsure 6% 8% 8% 38%
School_Funding Military Family Not a Military FamilyFor 33% 37%Against 52% 49%Abstain 5% 8%Unsure 9% 7%
School_Funding Union Family Not a Union FamilyFor 36% 35%Against 50% 51%Abstain 6% 6%Unsure 7% 8%
School_Funding Less than $50,000 $50,000 -‐ $100,000 $100,000+For 35% 35% 38%Against 50% 52% 53%Abstain 7% 9% 1%Unsure 8% 4% 8%
CD1 CROSSTABSCD1 Male Female RefusedTakai 45% 47% 0%Djou 49% 42% 0%Unsure 6% 11% 100%
CD1 Under 50 50 or olderTakai 41% 47%Djou 50% 44%Unsure 10% 8%
CD1 Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/MixedTakai 50% 58% 26% 33% 34% 34% 40%Djou 44% 34% 63% 63% 50% 53% 44%Unsure 6% 9% 11% 4% 16% 13% 16%
CD1 Liberal Moderate Conservative UnsureTakai 75% 55% 18% 32%Djou 19% 37% 80% 36%Unsure 6% 8% 3% 31%
CD1 Democrat Republican Independent UnsureTakai 76% 18% 25% 35%Djou 18% 75% 65% 12%Unsure 6% 7% 9% 53%
CD1 Military Family Not a Military FamilyTakai 48% 46%Djou 44% 44%Unsure 8% 10%
CD1 Union Family Not a Union FamilyTakai 49% 46%Djou 42% 45%Unsure 8% 9%
CD1 Less than $50,000 $50,000 -‐ $100,000 $100,000+Takai 47% 51% 52%Djou 41% 44% 47%Unsure 12% 4% 2%
CD1_Decide Takai DjouTwo weeks 20% 17%One month 22% 22%Month plus 57% 60%Unsure 1% 1%
CD2 CROSSTABSCD2 Male FemaleGabbard 68% 70%Crowley 23% 16%Unsure 9% 15%
CD2 Under 50 50 or olderGabbard 70% 71%Crowley 23% 17%Unsure 8% 12%
CD2 Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/MixedGabbard 70% 65% 79% 79% 51% 54% 70%Crowley 20% 23% 8% 17% 18% 28% 12%Unsure 10% 13% 13% 4% 31% 17% 18%
CD2 Oahu_2 Hawaii Maui KauaiGabbard 63% 74% 72% 63%Crowley 19% 17% 19% 25%Unsure 18% 9% 9% 12%
CD2 Liberal Moderate Conservative UnsureGabbard 79% 76% 50% 76%Crowley 10% 15% 37% 7%Unsure 11% 9% 13% 17%
CD2 Democrat Republican Independent UnsureGabbard 85% 41% 60% 56%Crowley 7% 44% 23% 0%Unsure 7% 15% 17% 44%
CD2 Military Family Not a Military FamilyGabbard 70% 71%Crowley 19% 18%Unsure 11% 11%
CD2 Union Family Not a Union FamilyGabbard 77% 68%Crowley 16% 20%Unsure 7% 12%
CD2 Less than $50,000 $50,000 -‐ $100,000 $100,000+Gabbard 76% 70% 78%Crowley 13% 22% 16%Unsure 10% 8% 6%