Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A....
Transcript of Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A....
![Page 1: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
James ClarkOcean Prediction Center
National Weather Service/NCEP
ECMWFTwelfth Workshop on Meteorological Operational Systems
2 – 6 November 2009
Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean Prediction Center: The Role of Observations & Progress in
Medium Range Forecasting
![Page 2: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
I. NWS Marine Weather Services/Ocean Prediction Center Overview
II. Role of Observations/Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclone Analysis & Forecasting
III. Medium Range Forecasting
A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas
A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat)B. Radar Altimeter
A. Warning Criteria ‘Probabilities’ through use of EnsemblesB. Model Blending C. Use of ECMWF products
![Page 3: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION
![Page 5: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
NOAA/NWS High Seas Forecast Areas
![Page 6: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
NOAA/NWS Offshore Forecast Zones
OPC NHC
AlaskaWFO
HonoluluWFO
![Page 7: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
46 Coastal/Great Lakes Weather Forecast Offices
![Page 8: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
In Situ Observations: Fixed Platforms
![Page 9: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
II. Role of Observations/Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclone Analysis & Forecasting
Satellite Observations
• Forecaster Application
• Diagnose Initial Conditions
• Determine warning criteria
• Placement of synoptic features
![Page 10: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Pre-Scatterometer
‘Landfalling’ Extratropical
Cyclone
![Page 12: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
With Scatterometer
Quikscat returns in 80 – 90 kt range!
![Page 13: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Quikscat + ASCAT = Happy Marine Forecasters!!
![Page 14: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones Detected Using Quikscat
![Page 16: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Quikscat vs GFS winds 25 September 2008 1200 UTC
![Page 17: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
![Page 18: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
15 October 2009 Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclone
![Page 19: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Quikscat vs GFS boundary layer winds for 15 October 2009 HF cyclone
![Page 20: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
1800 UTC 15 October 2009 Atlantic Surface Analysis
![Page 21: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
![Page 22: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Jason Altimeter Pass vs NOAA Wavewatch III
![Page 23: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
![Page 24: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Jason Altimeter/
Meteosat IR
![Page 25: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Jason Altimeter/
NOAA Wavewatch III
![Page 26: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
North Atlantic/North Pacific
![Page 27: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
‘Probability’ of ECMWF EFS members’ winds
![Page 28: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
‘Probability’ of GEFS members’ winds
![Page 29: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
‘Probability’ of ECMWF EFS members’ winds with OPC Day 4 Forecast
![Page 30: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Model Blender Menu from GEMPAK NMAP2
![Page 31: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
GFS
ECMWF
![Page 32: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
50/50 Blend between GFS and ECMWF 500mb Heights
![Page 33: Oceanic Cyclone Analysis and Forecasting at the NCEP/Ocean ... · A. Coastal/Offshore/High Seas. A. Ocean Surface Vector Wind (Quikscat, Ascat) ... MARITIME SAFETY INFORMATION. NOAA/NWS](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022081616/6010b299f68c3e5d6c0d6bd7/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Science Priorities
• Improved numerical weather prediction of marine boundary layer • Improved numerical weather prediction of explosive extratropical cyclogenesis • Improved numerical weather prediction of hazardous mesoscale marine conditions in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream• Improved techniques for use of ensemble products in the forecast process