Impacts of QuikSCAT on Tropical Prediction Center Operations
description
Transcript of Impacts of QuikSCAT on Tropical Prediction Center Operations
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Impacts of QuikSCAT on Tropical Prediction Center
Operations
Impacts of QuikSCAT on Tropical Prediction Center
Operations
Richard Knabb, Christopher Hennon, Daniel Brown, James Franklin, Hugh Cobb,
Jamie Rhome, and Robert Molleda
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
Richard Knabb, Christopher Hennon, Daniel Brown, James Franklin, Hugh Cobb,
Jamie Rhome, and Robert Molleda
NOAA/NWS/NCEP/TPC/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
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TPC/NHC Core Operational Products
Hurricane Specialists• Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory• Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory• Tropical Cyclone Discussion• Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities• Special Disturbance Statements• Tropical Cyclone Updates• Tropical Cyclone Position Estimates• Tropical cyclone graphics
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB)• High Seas Forecasts• Offshore Waters Forecasts• Tropical Weather Discussions• Marine Weather Discussions• Tropical surface analysis• Graphical marine products• Dvorak intensity estimates and satellite position fixes• Satellite rainfall forecast guidance• Pan-American temperature and precipitation table
TPC/NHC Core Operational Products
Hurricane Specialists• Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory• Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory• Tropical Cyclone Discussion• Tropical Cyclone Strike Probabilities• Special Disturbance Statements• Tropical Cyclone Updates• Tropical Cyclone Position Estimates• Tropical cyclone graphics
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB)• High Seas Forecasts• Offshore Waters Forecasts• Tropical Weather Discussions• Marine Weather Discussions• Tropical surface analysis• Graphical marine products• Dvorak intensity estimates and satellite position fixes• Satellite rainfall forecast guidance• Pan-American temperature and precipitation table
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TPC/NHC AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY
TPC HURRICANE FORECAST AREA
TPC BACKUP AREA FOR OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER (MOSTLY HIDDEN)TPC BACKUP AREA FOR WFO HONOLULU AND CPHC AREAS (PARTIALLY HIDDEN)
TPC TAFB FORECAST AREATPC TAFB ADDITIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS AREA
TPC BACKUP AREA FOR AVIATION WEATHER CENTER (COMPLETELY HIDDEN)
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TPC Numerical Weather Prediction Overview
4
Typical operational distributionof surface observations
Land, island and marine (ships, buoys)
Huge Gaps in Surface Data inTAFB Areas of ResponsibilityHuge Gaps in Surface Data inTAFB Areas of Responsibility
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QuikSCAT Fills Some Data GapsQuikSCAT Fills Some Data Gaps
However, it has gaps of its own between swaths,which are fairly large in the Tropics
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Ship data still important, esp. in swath gaps
Ship data still important, esp. in swath gaps
NAWIPS Display of QuikSCAT DataNAWIPS Display of QuikSCAT Data
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Surface Analysis without QuikSCATSurface Analysis without QuikSCAT
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Surface Analysis without QuikSCATSurface Analysis without QuikSCAT
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Surface Analysis with QuikSCATSurface Analysis with QuikSCAT
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Surface Analysis with QuikSCATSurface Analysis with QuikSCAT
High Seas ForecastHigh Seas Forecast
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Surface Analysis with QuikSCATSurface Analysis with QuikSCAT
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Gulf of Tehuantepec
Gulf of Papagayo
Rain flag often fails in these
events
Central America Gap WindsCentral America Gap Winds
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Visit the TPC/TAFB Poster on Tehuantepec EventsVisit the TPC/TAFB Poster on Tehuantepec Events
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Windward Passage
MonaPassage
Funneling of Winds in Atlantic PassagesFunneling of Winds in Atlantic Passages
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Intertropical Convergence ZoneIncluding broad/double ITCZ structures
Intertropical Convergence ZoneIncluding broad/double ITCZ structures
18 March 200418 March 2004
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Bad Data
Edge of Swath ProblemsVery common in the Caribbean
Edge of Swath ProblemsVery common in the Caribbean
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Nov-Dec 2003 TAFB ForecasterSurvey Results
Nov-Dec 2003 TAFB ForecasterSurvey Results
• QuikSCAT data used during forecast shift at least 75% of the time
• When QuikSCAT led to changes in the wind velocities in analyses and forecasts, the revised winds were higher about 65% of the time
• Primary reasons for QuikSCAT data not being used on a particular forecast cycle are lack of timeliness and/or lack of data over the feature/area of interest
• QuikSCAT data used during forecast shift at least 75% of the time
• When QuikSCAT led to changes in the wind velocities in analyses and forecasts, the revised winds were higher about 65% of the time
• Primary reasons for QuikSCAT data not being used on a particular forecast cycle are lack of timeliness and/or lack of data over the feature/area of interest
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34
21
42
32
40
28
48
22
48
32
46
27
0
20
40
60
80
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Gales/Storms T.S./Hurcn
More than tropical
cyclones
Year
# Even t s
TAFB Warning EventsTAFB Warning Events
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QuikSCAT Impacts on TAFB ProductsQuikSCAT Impacts on TAFB Products
• Important tool for locating weather features
• Important for determining the extent of certain wind speeds around a feature, which can affect warnings
• Data source for verifying forecasts and warnings
• Assist in determining reliability of ship data
• Comparison with model analyses and short-term forecasts
• Forecasters have gained a much better understanding of localized wind events (e.g., terrain gap flows)
• Increased confidence in forecasting these events
• Losing scatterometer data, without a viable replacement, would be severely detrimental to TAFB marine analyses, forecasts, and warnings
• Important tool for locating weather features
• Important for determining the extent of certain wind speeds around a feature, which can affect warnings
• Data source for verifying forecasts and warnings
• Assist in determining reliability of ship data
• Comparison with model analyses and short-term forecasts
• Forecasters have gained a much better understanding of localized wind events (e.g., terrain gap flows)
• Increased confidence in forecasting these events
• Losing scatterometer data, without a viable replacement, would be severely detrimental to TAFB marine analyses, forecasts, and warnings
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Hurricane Karl (2004)Hurricane Karl (2004)
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Hurricane Karl (2004)Hurricane Karl (2004)
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Hurricane Karl (2004)Hurricane Karl (2004)
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Hurricane Karl (2004)Hurricane Karl (2004)
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Hurricane Karl (2004)Hurricane Karl (2004)
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Hurricane Karl (2004)Hurricane Karl (2004)
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Hurricane Karl (2004)Wind radii in N semicircle expanded from 120 to 175 nm
Hurricane Karl (2004)Wind radii in N semicircle expanded from 120 to 175 nm
However, uncertainty is
high since rain contamination a
significant problem in
tropical cyclones
However, uncertainty is
high since rain contamination a
significant problem in
tropical cyclones
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Manual Directional Ambiguity AnalysisManual Directional Ambiguity Analysis
Formation of Tropical
Depression #2
3 Aug 2004
Formation of Tropical
Depression #2
3 Aug 2004
Northerly and northwesterly Northerly and northwesterly ambiguities suggest possible ambiguities suggest possible closed circulationclosed circulation
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Visit the TPC/NHC Poster on Ambiguity AnalysisVisit the TPC/NHC Poster on Ambiguity Analysis
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Normalized Radar Cross Section ImageryNormalized Radar Cross Section Imagery
Concentric Eyewalls of Hurricane
Isabel
11 Sep 2003
Concentric Eyewalls of Hurricane
Isabel
11 Sep 2003
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QuikSCAT Impacts on NHC ProductsQuikSCAT Impacts on NHC Products
• Sometimes useful for estimating 34 kt wind radii
• Not as useful for 50 and 64 kt radii due to rain contamination
• Sometimes useful in estimating the intensity of tropical depressions and weak tropical storms, but not for hurricanes
• Automated solutions not very useful in TC center fixing
• Directional ambiguities sometimes analyzed to help determine if and where a surface circulation exists
• NRCS imagery occasionally useful in TC location fixing and in discerning concentric eyewalls
• Slight positive impact on NWP forecasts of TC track
• QuikSCAT explicitly mentioned during 2004 in 47 Tropical Cyclone Discussions (TCDs) for the Atlantic basin and in 43 TCDs for the eastern North Pacific basin
• Sometimes useful for estimating 34 kt wind radii
• Not as useful for 50 and 64 kt radii due to rain contamination
• Sometimes useful in estimating the intensity of tropical depressions and weak tropical storms, but not for hurricanes
• Automated solutions not very useful in TC center fixing
• Directional ambiguities sometimes analyzed to help determine if and where a surface circulation exists
• NRCS imagery occasionally useful in TC location fixing and in discerning concentric eyewalls
• Slight positive impact on NWP forecasts of TC track
• QuikSCAT explicitly mentioned during 2004 in 47 Tropical Cyclone Discussions (TCDs) for the Atlantic basin and in 43 TCDs for the eastern North Pacific basin
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Looking AheadLooking Ahead• Continued operational availability of scatterometer data is greatly needed in TPC operations
• TPC forecasters have gained substantial experience with scatterometer data and have learned to extract much useful information… hopefully an investment in the future
• More than one instrument is needed due to large gaps between swaths in the Tropics and due to infrequent passes over a feature of interest
• Improvements needed to address challenges of rain contamination and directional ambiguities
• Ideally, if the passive radiometer is to be the future platform for retrieving ocean surface vector winds in operational tropical meteorology, it must be as accurate as the scatterometer
• Highly applied research with both platforms ongoing at TPC
• Continued operational availability of scatterometer data is greatly needed in TPC operations
• TPC forecasters have gained substantial experience with scatterometer data and have learned to extract much useful information… hopefully an investment in the future
• More than one instrument is needed due to large gaps between swaths in the Tropics and due to infrequent passes over a feature of interest
• Improvements needed to address challenges of rain contamination and directional ambiguities
• Ideally, if the passive radiometer is to be the future platform for retrieving ocean surface vector winds in operational tropical meteorology, it must be as accurate as the scatterometer
• Highly applied research with both platforms ongoing at TPC
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Hurricane Specialists (NHC)• Develop, coordinate (domestically and abroad), and issue tropical cyclone warnings, forecasts, and outlooks• Provide "off-season” training to emergency managers, meteorologists, and the media• Conduct applied research and interact with research community• Conduct public awareness programs
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) • Develops, coordinates, and issues marine analyses, forecasts, and warnings• Provides satellite-based position and intensity estimates for tropical cyclones and other disturbances• Conducts public outreach to mariners• Augments operational support staffing to Specialists
Technical Support Branch (TSB) • Provides computer systems support 24x7, applications development, training, and technology infusion• Emergency operational support staffing to other branches
Hurricane Specialists (NHC)• Develop, coordinate (domestically and abroad), and issue tropical cyclone warnings, forecasts, and outlooks• Provide "off-season” training to emergency managers, meteorologists, and the media• Conduct applied research and interact with research community• Conduct public awareness programs
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) • Develops, coordinates, and issues marine analyses, forecasts, and warnings• Provides satellite-based position and intensity estimates for tropical cyclones and other disturbances• Conducts public outreach to mariners• Augments operational support staffing to Specialists
Technical Support Branch (TSB) • Provides computer systems support 24x7, applications development, training, and technology infusion• Emergency operational support staffing to other branches
TPC/NHC Branch ResponsibilitiesTPC/NHC Branch Responsibilities
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77°N°N
3535°W°W
3131°N°N3030°N°N
18.518.5°S°S
140140°W°W
EQEQ
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Surface Analysis in Hurricane SeasonSurface Analysis in Hurricane Season
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Another Mona Passage ExampleAnother Mona Passage Example
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Quikscat from 0050 UTC 25 January. Surface observations from 0400 UTCSSTs in Red
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20 and 34 kt Wind Radii Estimation20 and 34 kt Wind Radii Estimation
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QuikSCAT Impact onModel TC Track Forecasts
QuikSCAT Impact onModel TC Track Forecasts
Impact of Removing AMSU, HIRS, GOES Wind, Quikscat Surface Wind Data on Hurricane Track Forecasts in the Atlantic Basin - 2003 (34 cases)
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
12 24 36 48 72 96 120
Forecast Hour
% Im
pro
ve
me
nt
NOAMSU
NOHIRS
NOGOESW
NOQuikscat
Satellite data ~ 10-15% impact
Jung and Zapotocny
JCSDA work funded by NPOESS IPO
Jung and Zapotocny
JCSDA work funded by NPOESS IPO