OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION · Cautionary Statement Portions of this presentation contain...

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OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION BAML Global Energy Conference November 17, 2016

Transcript of OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION · Cautionary Statement Portions of this presentation contain...

OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION

BAML Global Energy ConferenceNovember 17, 2016

Cautionary Statement

Portions of this presentation contain forward-looking statements and involve risks and uncertainties that couldmaterially affect expected results of operations, liquidity, cash flows and business prospects. Words such as"estimate," "project," "predict," "will," "would," "should," "could," "may," "might," "anticipate," "plan," "intend,""believe," "expect," "aim," "goal," "target," "objective," "likely" or similar expressions that convey theprospective nature of events or outcomes generally indicate forward-looking statements. Factors that maycause Occidental's results of operations and financial position to differ from expectations include but are notlimited to: global commodity pricing fluctuations; supply and demand considerations for Occidental’sproducts; higher-than-expected costs; the regulatory approval environment; reorganization or restructuring ofOccidental's operations; not successfully completing, or any material delay of, field developments, expansionprojects, capital expenditures, efficiency projects, acquisitions or dispositions; lower-than-expectedproduction from development projects or acquisitions; exploration risks; general economic slowdownsdomestically or internationally; political conditions and events; liability under environmental regulationsincluding remedial actions; litigation; disruption or interruption of production or manufacturing or facilitydamage due to accidents, chemical releases, labor unrest, weather, natural disasters, cyber attacks orinsurgent activity; failure of risk management; changes in law or regulations; or changes in tax rates. Youshould not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of thispresentation. Unless legally required, Occidental does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Material risks that may affectOccidental’s results of operations and financial position appear in Part 1, Item 1A “Risk Factors” ofOccidental's 2015 Form 10-K.

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Overriding Goal is to Maximize Total Shareholder Return• We believe this can be achieved through a combination of:

• Oil and gas production growth of 5% to 8% per year over the long-term;− Executing on our capital program with a focus on growing our U.S. oil production

• Allocating and deploying capital with a focus on achieving well above cost-of-capital returns (ROE and ROCE);

– Return Targets*• Domestic – 15+%• International – 20+%

− Continued improvement in our capital and drilling efficiency− Start-up of long-term projects

• Providing consistent, annual dividend growth;

• Maintaining a strong balance sheet.

Key Messages & Strategy

3*Assumes moderate product prices

Cash Flow Priorities Favor Dividends

1. Base/Maintenance Capital

2. Dividends

3. Growth Capital

4. Acquisitions

5. Share Repurchases

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Subject to Returns and

Market Conditions

• High quality oil and gas assets & other low capital intensity operations Improving free cash flow in other segments provides continued dividend support Significant exposure to a recovery in oil prices provides optionality for

dividend growth and/or acceleration of production growth

• Operational excellence On track to exceed high end of 4% - 6% production growth guidance for FY 2016 On track for 2016 capital budget of ~$3 billion

• Recent WI acquisitions in existing areas strengthen Permian position Operatorship provides opportunity to control pace and cost of drilling Significant value capture through operating & development cost synergies, well

productivity, application of D&C knowledge, and leveraging existing infrastructure Significant optionality and value through future upside and development flexibility

• Superior balance sheet and ample liquidity

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Key Messages & Takeaways

Large Integrated MajorsCompany Market Cap ($B)XOM $358RDS $211CVX $203TOT $120BP $105ENI $51

Characteristics• Low or no growth• Higher returns• Stronger B/S; lower risk• Free cash flow• Consistent dividend growth

Unique Investment Proposition

Independent E&PsCompany Market Cap ($B)COP $57EOG $54APC $34PXD $30DVN $23APA $22

Characteristics• Generally higher growth• Lower returns• Weaker B/S; higher risk• Little or no free cash flow• Little or no dividends• Moved from gassy to oily

Oxy has positive elements of both groups, appealing to investors who seek a combination of moderate growth, above average returns and consistent dividend growth.

Oxy Uniquely

Positioned

$51 billion

6Updated as of 11/10/2016

Oil and Gas Focus Areas

Latin America

• Leading position in the Permian Basin.

• Permian Resources is a growth driver.

• Al Hosn Project, Oman and Qatar.

• Additional potential opportunities for growth with partner countries.

• Highest margin operations in Colombia.

• Additional opportunities for moderate growth with partner.

Quality assets position Oxy to grow

• Oil production• Earnings & Cash Flow

per share• ROCE• Dividend stream

OxyChemHigh FCF, moderate growth business.

Oxy MidstreamIntegrated pipeline ops & marketing designed to maximize realizations.

A Focused Business with High Quality Assets

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MENA

United States

565600 – 605

2015 CoreProduction

Other DomesticDecline

PermianResources

Growth

Al Hosn & OmanBlock 62

2016E CoreProduction

Outlook

2017E CoreProduction

Outlook

• Expect to exceed the higher end of 2016 production guidance of 4% - 6% growth

– Record high production at Al Hosn and Oman– Permian Resources ~13% FY 2016 growth

• Anticipate production growth of 5% - 8% in 2017

>6% Core Assets

Production Growth in 2016

Company-wide Oil & Gas Production from Core Assets (MBOED)

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Production Growth Exceeding Expectations

Note: Core assets exclude Bahrain, Iraq, Yemen, Williston and Piceance Basins

5 – 8% Production

Growth

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Total Spend per BOE Has Declined

~$40.00

~$27.50

2014 2015 2016Target

2016 YTD

Total Spend per BOE = Capital Spending* + G&A + All Operating Costs

Global Oil & Gas Sales Volumes

• Internal performance metric to focus on operational efficiency, especially in consideration of the sharp decline in commodity prices

• Portion of management and employees incentive compensation is directly aligned with this performance metric

• Focuses on efficiency, improved margins, and free cash flow generation

• Designed to help manage reduction in overall spending while rewarding production growth

$28.50

~$62.00

* Excludes cost of acquisitions

• Cash balance of $3.2 billion at 9/30/2016

• Recently issued $1.5 billion in bonds with 10-year coupon at 3.00% and 30-year coupon at 4.10%

• Single ‘A’ credit ratings re-affirmed with stable outlook

• Additional sources of liquidity in 2017 - 2018 of ~$2 billion including:

Anticipated tax refund in 2017 Monetization of non-strategic corporate assets Portfolio management & optimization

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Recent Debt Offering & Sources of Liquidity

Maintenance Sustaining Growth

2016E 2017E

$3.3 - $3.8

<$3.0

11* Estimated capital budget required to keep production stable

Preliminary Capital Outlook($ in bln)

• Total sustaining and maintenance capital of ~$2.2 billion*

• Focused on return based capital for growth projects in Permian Resources

• Shorter cycle capital investments allow for flexibility to respond to any changing price environment

• If oil prices show downside volatility, can quickly adjust capital program below current outlook

Capital Flexibility to Pursue Growth

Core Countries• Oman: YTD record production of 95

MBOED through multiple onshore projects utilizing enhanced oil recovery, including steamfloods.

• Qatar: YTD production of 110 MBOED through multiple shallow-water EOR projects, Dolphin and ISSD record production

• UAE: YTD production of 61 MBOED from the Al Hosn gas project, exceeding performance expectations, including planned turnarounds

– Al Hosn 2017 production to increase to 65 – 70 MBOED

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Middle East Update

Al Hosn Gas development

Al Hosn Gas Project

2017 Impact• Improved production and cost reductions at

Al Hosn and in Oman should increase free cash flow by ~$300+ MM

Achieved record production YTD 2016 in Oman, Qatar and the UAE

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Midstream Update

Shipments from Ingleside export facility

2017 Impact• Free cash flow expected to improve $150 -

$200+ MM due to better marketing economics and ramp up of Ingleside oil storage and export facility

• Ample takeaway capacity and new outlet for Permian oil production

Business Segments• Gas Plants: Natural gas and CO2

gathering, compression and processing systems to control upstream costs

• Pipelines - Domestic: Take-away capacity via common carrier oil pipeline and storage systems, including Centurion pipeline, CO2 source fields and pipeline systems

• Pipelines - Foreign: Stable free cash flow from Dolphin natural gas pipeline

• Power Generation: Lower cost electricity through power and steam generating facilities

• Marketing & Trading: market production at highest realizations;includes Ingleside export facility

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Chemicals Update

Ingleside ethylene cracker near completion

Integrated Value Chain• Chlorine: 60% Internal Use for VCM,

EDC, and Other Derivatives / 40% External Merchant Sales

• Vinyls: Demand driven by construction growth: PVC – sell 75% domestically and 25% exported; VCM – 50% internal use for PVC and 40% exported and 10% sold domestically;

• Caustic Soda: Leveraged to exports, manufacturing activity and chemicals demand: 95% sold externally; 40% exported; market prices now rising

• Natural Gas Inputs: Partial hedge of Oxy’s domestic natural gas production

2017 Impact• Expect free cash flow to increase by ~$400 MM

with lower capital expenditures, start up of ethylene cracker & product margin increases

• $10/ton of Caustic Netback = $30 MM cash flow• US infrastructure backlog a significant upside

Free Cash Flow Improvement

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2017 vs 2016FCF Improvement

MENA ~$300 MMMidstream $150 - $200 MMChemicals ~$400 MMTotal $850 - $900 MM

• Improved market conditions, project start-ups and lower capital should increase free cash flow generation in 2017

EOR Business• YTD ‘16 Production - 144 MBOEPD• 1 million net acres• 1.9 Billion BOE remaining in reserves

and resourcesResources (Unconventional)• YTD ‘16 Production – 125 MBOEPD• 1.4 million net acres• 8,500 identified well locations* Midstream• 12 processing plants• ~2,900 miles of pipeline

– CO2 pipelines– Oil infrastructure and pipelines– Marketing business

Permian Basin Is The Core Domestic Asset

Oxy Acreage

Oil Pipelines

CO2 Pipelines

16* Based on 4Q15 metrics

Infrastructure difficult to duplicate

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Growing the Greater Barilla Draw Area

• Recent acquisition enhances Occidental’s strong position in the Southern Delaware Basin− Part of a multi-year investment plan started in 2012− Area now encompasses ~100,000 net acres & 3,800+

hz locations

• Scale of contiguous position allows for synergies− Vast delineated area of subsurface characterization− Expanded best-in-class operating capabilities− Integrated infrastructure and supply chain leverage− Market access for rapid production growth

• Unconstrained high value growth potential

BEFORE

~63% Working Interest

~100% Working Interest

~26% Working Interest

AFTER

~26% Working Interest• Unique opportunity to increase working

interests and operatorship in Red Bull properties

Proven Economic

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Multi-Bench Development PotentialBarilla Draw Type Log

Debris Flow

Target Formation

Recent Wells

Well #*Effective Lateral

Length (Feet)IP-30

(Boepd)

Avalon Potential

1st Bone Spring Evaluating

2nd Bone Spring Well #1Well #2

4,5144,947

762821

3rd Bone Spring Well #1 7,576 642

Wolfcamp A

Well #1Well #2Well #3Well #4Well #5

4,3967,7004,4074,3007,553

1,5642,2101,3041,8921,240

Wolfcamp DebrisFlow

Well #1Well #2Well #3Well #4

4,5006,5754,7764,681

1,9071,2471,3401,263

Wolfcamp B

Well #1Well #2Well #3Well #4

7,3776,9476,9357,376

1,1711,5131,1241,416

Wolfcamp C Well #1 4,251 937

* Wells include Oxy and acquisition acreageEvaluating

Potential

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

PriorOperator

OxyCurrent

OxyPotential

6 Mon

th Cum

ulative MBO

E

 $‐

 $2

 $4

 $6

 $8

 $10

 $12

PriorOperator

OxyCurrent

OxyPotential

Total W

ell Cost ($M

M)

Well Productivity

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Greater Barilla Draw Advantages

• 150,000+ BOPD Oil Pipeline takeaway

• 300+ MMCFD Gas Pipeline capacity

• 290,000+ BWPD Pipeline SWD Capacity

• 90 MW of Power from 5 Electrical Substations

• 52 consolidated CTB’s

• Integrated Artificial Lift systems

• 5+ Rig Development Potential• Oxy Drilling Dynamics

– Faster Drilling + Reduced Downtime– More Lateral Footage / Rig

• Completion Efficiencies

– Maximizing Stages per Day– Optimized Flow Back– Shared infrastructure

Well Cost* Infrastructure Cost

• Subsurface Expertise– Vertical Delineation History– 3D Seismic + Core– Expansive sub-basin characterization

area• Integrated Stimulation Designs

– Unique designs to fit geo-science and reservoir characteristics

• Optimal Full Section Spacing for value

7,500 ft Lateral7,500 ft Lateral

$7.8 - $8.5

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

PriorOperator

OxyCurrent

OxyPotential

Facilities %

 of D

evelop

men

t Cap

ex*Well cost includes drilling, completion, hook-up, initial flow-back, capitalized *overhead, and artificial lift

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Acquisition Influence on Greater Barilla Draw

Drilling Pace CapabilityNet Acres

Net Production - BOEPD• Oxy’s development capability adds significant

value to the acquired assets

• Previously owned a 26% WI in the acquisition area

• Oxy operating adds over $600MM of Future NPV10* to the Greater Barilla Draw area

*Future NPV10 calculation assumes a modest 3 rig pace with $500K / well cost improvement, $0.50 / boe opex improvement and 10% well productivity improvement from the prior operator.

38,000

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Greater Barilla Draw Development Area Timeline

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+Enter

Systematic acquisition criteria

Leverage non-operated learning early

Add large contiguous operated acreage

Bolt-on’s to create value

Surface acreage for full cycle cost advantage

Appraise Subsurface

characterization progression

Testing of key subsurface concepts

Delineation of multiple benches

Vertical to Hz well transition

Drilling & Completion technology advancement

Improve Pad Drilling

Slim Hole well design

Unique Drilling Fluid implementation

Well-ordered stimulations

Total Time-to-Market reduction

Total activity integrated planning

Water Infrastructure

Optimize Extended lateral

inventory build

Well Spacing studies

Orientation tests

Stimulation advancements

Full section development design

Consolidated CTB’s

Oil & Gas Gathering Infrastructure

Gas processing and assurance

Innovate Acreage

improvements

Supply Chain and logistics transformation

Co-bench development technology

Infrastructure and facilities enhancements

Enhanced Reservoir Recovery

Grow Unconstrained

Growth Potential

Expansive multi-bench subsurface characterization

Low cost multi-bench co-development capability

Oil + Water + Gas infrastructure and assurance

Operating cost synergies

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Greater Barilla Draw Timeline

2013 - Appraise 2014 - Improve 2015 - Optimize2012 - Enter 2016 - Innovate• 1st WC A Hz well at

Lockridge

• Barilla Draw acquisition

• 1st WC B Hz well appraisal

• Operated and non-operated acquisitions

• 1st WC C and 3rd BS Hz appraisal wells

• Acquired core: WC A, WC B, 2nd and 3rd BS

• 5,000’ lateral <15 drilling days

• 1st 10,000’ Hz lateral

• Oxy/Enterprise JV gas plant

• Acreage swap & JVs for extended laterals

• 35,000 net acres acquisition

Existing Oxy 3D Seismic Surveys Proposed 2017 3D Seismic AcquisitionOutside OperatedOxy Operated

Collie Lockridge

Barilla Draw

Motorcycle (~25%)

Red Bull –North

(~63%)

Red Bull -South

Permian Resources Drives Oxy Production Growth

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• Total Permian Resources production growth expected to be ~13% in 2016

• Increased activity expected in 4Q16 in preparation for 2017 growth

– 5 rigs drilling a mix of development and appraisal wells

– Production will start increasing again before year-end

4371

2014 2015 2016E 2017E

Oil NGL Gas

~124110

75

MBOED

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Overall Permian Continues to Grow

2014 2015 2016E 2017E

Oil NGL Gas

~270

MBOED

255222

• Expect to increase to 8 rigs in 4Q16

• Successfully enhancing completion methods across Permian Resources acreage position

• Achieving better than expected results in both Permian businesses which will allow us to invest the savings into additional wells in each respective business

• Expect production growth in 2017 with added rigs in Permian Resources and continued investment in Permian EOR

Access to Multiple Markets Through Midstream Investments

Corpus Christi

Nederland

Mid‐Valley240 kb/d

McCamey

Crane

Midland

Houston

Wink

ColoradoCity

Ho‐Ho Pipeline

Oxy owned

Oxy is a major shipper

Cushing

HOFTCO Terminal

Ingleside Terminal

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• Ample takeaway capacity to reach multiple markets and hubs to drive improved price realizations

• Blending capabilities allow for optimization