Nürnberg, 19 February 2007 | Othmar Schwank

Biofach – 2007

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 2

CONTENT

1. Climate risks of developing countries

2. Sectoral impacts on agriculture/water- regional examples

3. Organic farming as a response measure?

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 3

1. CLIMATE RISK– IPCC AR4 2007 (Emission scenario based projections)

Surface warming (relative to 1980-99) for A2, A1B und B1 Scenarios.

Year 2000 constant concentration

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 4

1. Climate Risk cont. IPCC (2007)

Warming 1.8-4.0 degrees and Sea Level Rise (0.2-0.6m) for selected Scenarios IPCC/SRES. B1 (2090-99): 600ppm CO2e

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 5

1. IPCC, STERN (2006) and 2oC TARGET

Stern Review 550ppm CO2e

(Quelle: WBCSD)

2oC target assumeshigher damages/ risks then Kemfert, if T > 2oC

To target 550ppm CO2: Emissionshave to stabillize by 2030 and then tofall => 2.4 - 3°C by 2100 (<-> >B1)

To target 450ppm CO2: Emissions haveto stabillize by 2020, and fall by 2050 to < 6GtC

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 6

1. Climate Risk: Precipitation 2090-2099 (IPCC 2007)

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 7

CLIMATE SCIENCE – GLOBAL PROJECTIONS

% CHANGE IN RUNOFF IN 2050 – MAJOR FOOD BOWLS

BECOME DRIER

Source: Milly et al; Nature Nov 2005

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 8

Source: Bradley, Vuille and Vergara, 2006

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 9

GLACIER YANAMAREY( Cordillera Blanca-altitude 4786 m-asl.)

1982 1987

1997 2005

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 10

Source: Byrd Polar Research Center 2005

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 11

FOOD SECURITY IS A MAJOR CONCERN (BENISTON 2002)

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 12

CLIMATE RISK – GLOBAL ECONOMIC IMPACT PROJECTIONS

ACTION VS. NON-ACTION: MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE AND COPING WITH IMPACTS

Source: C. Kemfert 2002, Berlin

in % of GDP

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 13

2. Climate risks <–> global change

Other global change processes are overlaying climate change impacts and tend to increase vulnerability e.g. Land Degradation -> Jakarta Flood

(INFRAS 2007)

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 14

CLIMATE SCIENCE – GLOBAL PROJECTIONS

SUMMING UP CLIMATE RISKS

› Change in precipitation across the globe does increase the risk for heavy rains, drought and flooding.

› Global temperature rise above 2°C, enhances the risk: › dangerous anthropogenic interference› irreversible damage to regional ecosystems, › tropical/temperate glacier loss -> hydrology› accelerated/abrupt changes in the global climate

system

Damages with stabilisation target set at 550 ppm CO2 ->2.5°C may derail sustainable development.

How to better understand dynamics at regional level?

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 15

2 REGIONAL EXAMPLES

- ANDEAN GLACIERS and HYDROLOGY - FOOD SECURITY IS A MAJOR CONCERN- INDIA: RAJASTHAN & ANDHRAPRADESH, SOILS & ORGANIC COTTON

- BRAZIL/AMAZONIA ORGANICPERMACULTURE

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 16

REGIONAL EXAMPLES – INDIA, RAJASTHAN & ANDRA PRADESH

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 17

Rain Fall Mahaboonagar District 1952-2003

y = -4.6207x + 851.14R2 = 0.1374

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

130095

152

9525

395

354

9545

595

556

9565

795

758

9585

995

960

9606

196

162

9626

396

364

9646

596

566

9666

796

768

9686

996

970

9707

197

172

9727

397

374

9747

597

576

9767

797

778

9787

997

980

9808

198

182

9828

398

384

9848

598

586

9868

798

788

9888

998

990

9909

199

192

9929

399

394

9949

599

596

9969

799

798

9989

999

900

0000

100

102

0020

300

304

0040

500

506

0060

700

708

0080

900

910

0101

101

112

0121

301

314

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 18

REGIONAL EXAMPLES – INDIA SDC V&A PROGRAMME, ANDHRA PRADESH

Drought impact AP (WB/TERI)

1700

1050 850 730

4600

2350

1260 1150

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

> 4ac 1 - 4 ac < 1 ac landless

Rs

Rs/mth drought yrRs/mthav. rainfall

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 19

REGIONAL EXAMPLES – INDIA SDC V&A PROGRAMME, ANDHRA PRADESH

Prosopis juliflora bushes, drought affected cotton field Andhra Pradesh

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 20

REGIONAL EXAMPLES – INDIA SDC V&A PROGRAMME, RAJASTHAN

Biomass and Water retention are key, Kundai village, Rajasthan

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 21

DEBT, DROUGHTS, SUICIDES

› Half of India’s 89 million farmer households are in debt.

› 1993-2003: 100’000 farmers committed suicide.

› 1998-2005: Bad seeds, costly pesticides and droughts have triggered debt, then suicide for 4’500 farmers in AP alone.

› Socio-economic data analysis reveal the larger >4ac farmers are more vulnerable to suicide.

› Droughts/flooding destructs financial, social and human capital -> out-migration opens skill and investment capability gap -> food security

REGIONAL EXAMPLES – INDIA SDC V&A PROGRAMME, ANDHRA PRADESH

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 22

3. Organic cotton cultivation reduces vulnerability

Optimized delivery systems, practices, knowledge, technology ,and coping mechanisms at the local, community level

Rural energy,biomass

Sustainable agriculture,

food security

Water resource

management

SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHOODS

Climate change – Adaptation BIOFACH| 17 February 2007 | Ohtmar Schwank | page 23

Organic Permaculture Amazonia (OROVERDE)

Degraded pasture land 2005 Fruit tree plantation 2006