November 2012 - Mesa AZ Market Updates

MARKET UPDATESolutions Real Estate

· Current Real Estate Market Conditions for Single Family Homes· Trends in Pricing· Current Levels of Supply and Demand· Value Metrics

"Report for the week of"November 26, 2012

· Presented by David DionSolutions Real Estatewww.SolutionsRealEstate.com - [email protected]

MESA, AZ

Powered by Altos Research LLC | www.altosresearch.com | Copyright ©2005-2010 Altos Research LLC

Median List Price

Median Lot Size

25.5

Percent Relisted (reset DOM)

1697

2.0

9 %

Median Number of Bathrooms

94

Inventory of Properties Listed

$ 100

Percent Flip (price increased)

6,501 - 8,000 sqft

Median House Size (sq ft)

$ 169,000

27 %

3.0

Market Action Index

Median Number of Bedrooms

Asking Price Per Square Foot

n/a

Percent of Properties with Price Decrease

Buyer's Advantage

±+

±+

==

≠≠

==

Altos Research Value Statistics

Most Expensive Listing

Average Days on Market (DoM)

Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First

This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuringthe current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to thebuyer.

Supply and Demand

Characteristics per Quartile

12 283058

842.0 29

3.0

46

78

3.0 331

105

37

44

0.25 - 0.50acre

33

$ 140,000

36

30

331

3.0

6,501 -8,000 sqft

312.0

1161 6,501 -8,000 sqft

331

$ 80,000

3.0

109

6,501 -8,000 sqft$ 199,950

4.0$ 345,000

17

32

1901

The Market Action Index has beenclimbing lately while days-on-marketare trending down, these point to apositive near-term outlook for themarket.

Monday November 26, 2012

David Dion | Solutions Real Estate | 480-332-5942 | www.

331

1459

2.0

The median list price in MESA, AZ thisweek is $169,000. The 1324properties have been on the marketfor an average of 94 days.

Most expensive 25% of properties

Upper-middle 25% of properties

Lower-middle 25% of properties

Least expensive 25% of properties

Quartile Median Price Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOMSq. Ft.

No change

Strong upward trend Strong downward trend

Slight upward trend Slight downward trend±+

== ≠≠

≠=

MESA, AZCity Overview

Least Expensive Listing

Average List Price

Average Age of Listing

1324

$ 4,600,000

$ 12,900

$ 237,153

24

Trend Key:

The market has shown someevidence of slowing recently. Bothprices and inventory levels arerelatively unchanged in recentweeks. Watch the Market ActionIndex for changes as it can be aleading indicator for price changes.

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Single Family Homes in

Katy Katz, Associate Broker at Solutions Real Estate | www.KatyKatz.com | 602-618-0917


City OverviewMESA, AZ


Median PriceThe market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability ofthis trend.

90-day Average7-day Average

Quartile PricesPrices have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift(up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.

First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom

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Price per Square FootThe value placed on homes continues to increase, despite the fact that prices in general have been basically flat recently.These conditions can arise when inventory is light and more, smaller homes have more influence on overall prices.


Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been relatively steady around these levels in recent weeks.


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Market Action IndexThe MESA market is currently in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30), though not strongly so. The 90-day Market Action Indexstands this week at 25.52 so buyers should expect to find reasonable levels of selection.

Buyers/Sellers Cutoff90-day Average

Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly given the overall Market Action Index, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months ofinventory given the current rate of demand for homes in the quartile. Watch the quartile for changes before the overall marketshifts. Often one end of the market (e.g. the low end) will improve and signal a strengthening market before the whole groupchanges.


Buyers/Sellers Cutoff

Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterizedby analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’sAdvantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.

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Days on MarketThe properties have been on the market for an average of 94 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in thepast 50 or so days.


Days on Market per QuartileIt is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.


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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

25.5


1640

2.0

9 %


103


$ 93


6,501 - 8,000 sqft


$ 152,900

30 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

±+

±+

==

==

==




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


15 23770

662.0 38

2.0

5

100

2.0 31

141

6

9

0.25 - 0.50acre

43

$ 134,900

4

3

31

3.0

6,501 -8,000 sqft

22.0

1152 6,501 -8,000 sqft

31

$ 90,000

3.0

106

8,001 -10,000 sqft$ 173,000

4.5$ 429,000

25

3

1854

Even though the days-on-market istrending higher, so is the MarketAction Index at these inventorylevels, providing a neutral outlook forthe market.



30

1449

2.0

The median list price in MESA, AZ85205 this week is $152,900. The 123properties have been on the marketfor an average of 103 days.






No change



== ≠≠

≠=

MESA, AZ 85205Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


123

$ 900,000

$ 50,000

$ 213,346

29

Trend Key:


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Neighborhood DetailMESA, AZ 85205


Median PriceWe continue to see prices in this zip code hovering around these current levels, even though they bumped up a bit this week.Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices move significantly from here.


Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in allfour quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move fromthese current levels.


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Market Action IndexThe MESA, 85205 market is currently in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30), though not strongly so. The 90-day Market ActionIndex stands this week at 25.47 so buyers should expect to find reasonable levels of selection.


Market Action Index per QuartileThree of the four quartiles of this zip code are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Quartile 2 (the upper-middle price group) is showing stronger demand than the others, as a Seller's market.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

24.4


2369

2.0

9 %


111


$ 132


0.25 - 0.50 acre


$ 314,900

32 %

4.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

±+

==

==

≠≠

==




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


6 24201

1032.0 12

3.0

6

100

3.0 43

102

4

5

0.50 - 1.0acre

15

$ 264,500

7

2

43

4.0

8,001 -10,000 sqft

33.0

1428 6,501 -8,000 sqft

42

$ 115,000

4.0

138

0.25 - 0.50acre$ 382,331

5.0$ 859,000

11

5

2732




42

2172

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


170

$ 4,600,000

$ 29,900

$ 502,745

16

Trend Key:


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Median PriceDespite this week's down tic, price trends in this zip code have generally been moving up lately. We are below the market's highpoint, and we'll investigate the Market Action Index later on to see if we expect this week's blip to become a downward trend.




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Price per Square FootThe market appears to be placing an increasing premium on homes. When list prices and price per square foot consistentlyincrease in tandem, as they're doing now, you can often find short-term investment opportunities. Watch the Market ActionIndex for persistent changes as a leading indicator for these trends to flatten or drop.




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Market Action Index per QuartileThree of the four quartiles of this zip code are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Quartile 1 (the highest price group) is showing stronger demand than the others, a Seller's market, as buyersseem to be placing emphasis on the premium homes.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

22.3


1800

2.0

6 %


97


$ 113


6,501 - 8,000 sqft


$ 206,950

19 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Strong Buyer's

==

≠≠

±+

≠≠

≠≠




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


16 24023

832.0 19

2.0

7

94

2.5 28

132

4

2

0.50 - 1.0acre

26

$ 155,400

0

2

28

4.0

Less than4,500 sqft

12.0

842 Less than4,500 sqft

28

$ 78,500

3.5

80

6,501 -8,000 sqft$ 244,700

5.0$ 622,000

18

1

2084

Inventory is up and Market Action istrending down recently. While days-on-market appears to be trendinglower, the overall conditions areweakening a bit.



28

1396

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


112

$ 2,300,000

$ 55,000

$ 316,750

21

Trend Key:


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Median PriceAgain this week in this zip code we see a downward notch for prices. Pricing has been weak in recent weeks and versus theirabsolute-high level. At this point, we will be looking for a persistent upward shift in the Market Action Index as a leadingindicator for a trough in prices.




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Price per Square FootDespite recently falling prices, the price per square foot has stayed reasonably flat. This implies that there's a portion of themarket being priced at a premium. You can investigate this condition in the quartile details.


Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been climbing lately. Note that rising inventory alone does not signal a weakening market. Look to the MarketAction Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is keeping up with available supply.


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Market Action IndexThe MESA, 85215 market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Indexstands at 22.28. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.


Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels ofdemand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

26.3


1525

2.0

3 %


94


$ 100


6,501 - 8,000 sqft


$ 155,500

34 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

±+

±+

±+

==

==




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


28 31946

1102.0 33

2.5

1

73

2.0 28

75

3

2

6,501 -8,000 sqft

28

$ 139,950

3

3

28

2.0

6,501 -8,000 sqft

42.0

1242 4,501 -6,500 sqft

27

$ 94,850

3.0

118

6,501 -8,000 sqft$ 167,500

3.0$ 217,000

32

2

1712

Even though the days-on-market istrending higher, so is the MarketAction Index at these inventorylevels, providing a neutral outlook forthe market.



27

1384

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


110

$ 899,500

$ 19,500

$ 175,917

27

Trend Key:


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Median PriceRecently prices in this zip have settled at a plateau even though they dipped this week. Look for a persistent up-shift in theMarket Action Index before we see prices significantly move from these levels.




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Price per Square FootThe market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both beenreasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves fromthese levels.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

24.0


1294

2.0

6 %


96


$ 94


4,501 - 6,500 sqft


$ 118,000

21 %

2.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

==

≠≠

==

≠≠

==




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


25 61768

1182.0 32

2.0

5

98

2.0 52

92

10

6

6,501 -8,000 sqft

30

$ 99,900

8

4

53

2.0

4,501 -6,500 sqft

62.0

940 4,501 -6,500 sqft

52

$ 58,000

3.0

77

4,501 -6,500 sqft$ 134,450

3.0$ 175,000

18

7

1300

Demand measured by the MarketAction Index is increasing and days-on-market is trending downward.Even as more properties comeavailable, these are positive trendsfor the market.



52

1239

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


209

$ 377,250

$ 12,900

$ 120,672

26

Trend Key:


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Median PricePrices in this zip code have been on a downward trend recently and this week, while essentially flat, doesn't break us out ofthat cycle.




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Price per Square FootWe're seeing fairly unusual market conditions as prices have been in a downward trend but price per square foot is actuallyincreasing. (Buyers are paying less and getting less home for their money.) Anomalies like these can be attributed to micro-location variables.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

23.8


1860

2.0

10 %


78


$ 104


6,501 - 8,000 sqft


$ 205,000

27 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

±+

==

==

≠≠

≠≠




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


12 42472

762.0 14

3.0

2

62

2.0 35

93

1

1

8,001 -10,000 sqft

12

$ 185,000

1

5

36

2.0

6,501 -8,000 sqft

22.0

1524 4,501 -6,500 sqft

35

$ 124,950

3.0

81

6,501 -8,000 sqft$ 229,000

4.0$ 284,000

11

4

2055

The Market Action Index has beentrending down recently, but as days-on-market decreases also, there arenot strong signals for the direction ofthe market.



35

1704

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


141

$ 629,000

$ 39,900

$ 210,424

13

Trend Key:


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Median PriceThe market for this zip code continues its bounce again this week. We're a long way from the market's high point so watch theMarket Action Index to predict how long this trend will last.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

36.6


1385

2.0

13 %


101


$ 83


6,501 - 8,000 sqft


$ 135,000

10 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Seller's Advantage

==

==

==

±+

==




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


34 12039

1292.0 34

3.0

2

63

3.0 8

169

1

2

6,501 -8,000 sqft

44

$ 103,950

1

0

8

3.0

6,501 -8,000 sqft

12.0

1152 8,001 -10,000 sqft

8

$ 60,000

3.0

35

8,001 -10,000 sqft$ 165,500

4.0$ 224,900

34

1

1650

Demand measured by the MarketAction Index is increasing and days-on-market is holding steady. Withmore properties coming available,conditions are mildly positive.



7

1356

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


31

$ 315,000

$ 31,000

$ 138,758

38

Trend Key:

In the last few weeks the market hasachieved a relative stasis point interms of sales to inventory.However, inventory is sufficientlylow to keep us in the Seller's Marketzone so watch changes in the MAI. Ifthe market heats up, prices arelikely to resume an upward climb.

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Market Action IndexThe MESA, 85210 market is currently in the Seller's Advantage zone (greater than 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at36.55 which indicates that demand is strong and available supply of homes gets snapped up relatively quickly.


Market Action Index per QuartileThree of the four quartiles of this zip code are in the Seller's Market zone with relatively low amounts of inventory given thecurrent levels of demand. It's not uncommon that the premium segment of the market takes longer to sell than the rest of thegroup.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

29.8


1553

2.0

8 %


108


$ 76


6,501 - 8,000 sqft


$ 112,000

32 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

≠≠

±+

==

==

==




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


39 12575

972.0 41

3.0

0

44

3.0 9

97

2

4

6,501 -8,000 sqft

42

$ 90,000

2

1

10

2.5

6,501 -8,000 sqft

12.0

1234 6,501 -8,000 sqft

9

$ 57,000

3.0

197

6,501 -8,000 sqft$ 145,000

4.0$ 239,900

38

2

1561

Inventory has been lightening latelyand the Market Action Index has beentrending up. Though days-on-marketis increasing, these are mildly positiveindications for the market.



9

1312

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


37

$ 475,000

$ 40,000

$ 138,278

38

Trend Key:


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Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look tothe Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply.


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Market Action Index per QuartileThree of the four quartiles of this zip code are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Quartile 3 (the low-middle price group) is showing stronger demand than the others, a Seller's market.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

25.0


2269

2.0

18 %


79


$ 91


6,501 - 8,000 sqft


$ 224,900

29 %

4.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

±+

==

==

==

±+




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


5 23495

732.0 10

3.0

2

85

4.0 26

63

1

5

8,001 -10,000 sqft

13

$ 207,495

3

1

26

3.0

6,501 -8,000 sqft

12.0

1590 4,501 -6,500 sqft

25

$ 154,500

4.0

94

6,501 -8,000 sqft$ 239,512

4.0$ 299,900

4

2

2475

Days-on-market has been trending uprecently but the Market Action Indexand inventory levels are basically flatand not providing strong indicationsfor the market.



25

2222

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


102

$ 420,000

$ 98,000

$ 226,987

7

Trend Key:


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Median PriceIn this zip code this week saw relatively little price change from last week. However, we continue to demonstrate a nice uptrend in general over the last several weeks.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

26.3


1749

2.0

17 %


70


$ 98


8,001 - 10,000 sqft


$ 174,950

31 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

==

==

==

==

≠≠




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


33 12380

482.0 34

3.0

4

60

3.0 14

80

2

2

0.25 - 0.50acre

37

$ 162,400

2

0

14

2.5

8,001 -10,000 sqft

03.0

1136 6,501 -8,000 sqft

13

$ 85,850

3.0

92

6,501 -8,000 sqft$ 185,000

4.0$ 245,000

35

0

1846

The Market Action Index has beentrending down lately, while inventoryand days-on-market are climbing. Thetrends imply a weakening market.



13

1456

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


54

$ 435,000

$ 47,000

$ 173,584

34

Trend Key:


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Market Action Index per QuartileThree of the four quartiles of this zip code are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Quartile 2 (the upper-middle price group) is showing stronger demand than the others, as a Seller's market.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

24.1


2385

2.0

17 %


118


$ 113


0.25 - 0.50 acre


$ 261,215

35 %

4.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

≠≠

±+

==

==

±+




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


13 24895

1422.0 18

3.0

1

148

4.0 16

88

2

2

0.50 - 1.0acre

26

$ 240,000

1

2

17

4.0

0.25 - 0.50acre

13.0

1561 8,001 -10,000 sqft

16

$ 161,300

4.0

96

0.25 - 0.50acre$ 288,086

5.0$ 639,450

18

1

2756

Inventory has been tightening anddays-on-market increasing recently.The Market Action Index has beenbasically flat, not providing strongindication for market conditions.



16

2095

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


65

$ 1,599,000

$ 75,000

$ 372,424

19

Trend Key:


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Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look tothe Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply.


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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

24.9


1759

2.0

2 %


99


$ 90


8,001 - 10,000 sqft


$ 162,000

32 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

±+

±+

==

≠≠

==




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


25 32760

892.0 34

3.0

3

77

3.0 16

81

2

0

0.25 - 0.50acre

42

$ 140,000

3

2

16

3.0

8,001 -10,000 sqft

32.0

1277 6,501 -8,000 sqft

15

$ 88,950

3.0

150

8,001 -10,000 sqft$ 189,300

4.0$ 335,000

39

2

1816




15

1590

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


62

$ 568,000

$ 55,000

$ 188,976

36

Trend Key:


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Market Action Index per QuartileThree of the four quartiles of this zip code are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Quartile 1 (the highest price group) is showing stronger demand than the others, a Seller's market, as buyersseem to be placing emphasis on the premium homes.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

26.0


1440

2.0

6 %


71


$ 86


6,501 - 8,000 sqft


$ 125,475

24 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

±+

±+

==

≠≠

==




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


29 62002

862.0 38

3.0

3

62

3.0 27

70

3

2

8,001 -10,000 sqft

39

$ 100,000

3

5

27

2.0

6,501 -8,000 sqft

22.0

1294 6,501 -8,000 sqft

27

$ 69,500

3.0

64

6,501 -8,000 sqft$ 140,000

4.0$ 190,000

39

2

1367




27

1398

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


108

$ 629,000

$ 35,000

$ 136,086

37

Trend Key:


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November 2012 - Mesa AZ Market Updates

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Transcript of November 2012 - Mesa AZ Market Updates