Mesa Az Market Trends and Updates 1-16-2012

MARKET UPDATESolutions Real Estate

· Current Real Estate Market Conditions for Single Family Homes· Trends in Pricing· Current Levels of Supply and Demand· Value Metrics

· Report for the week ofJanuary 16, 2012

· Presented by David DionSolutions Real Estatewww.SolutionsRealEstate.com - [email protected]

MESA, AZ

Powered by Altos Research LLC | www.altosresearch.com | Copyright ©2005-2010 Altos Research LLC

Median List Price

Median Lot Size

24.3

Percent Relisted (reset DOM)

1714

2.0

12 %

Median Number of Bathrooms

148

Inventory of Properties Listed

$ 80

Percent Flip (price increased)

2.5 - 5.0 acres

Median House Size (sq ft)

$ 139,950

35 %

3.0

Market Action Index

Median Number of Bedrooms

Asking Price Per Square Foot

n/a

Percent of Properties with Price Decrease

Buyer's Advantage

≠

±+

±+

=

≠

Altos Research Value Statistics

Most Expensive Listing

Average Days on Market (DoM)

Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First

This Week Real-Time Market Profile Trend

The Market Action Index answers the question "How's the Market?" by measuringthe current rate of sale versus the amount of the inventory. Index above 30implies a seller's advantage. Below 30, conditions give the advantage to thebuyer.

Supply and Demand

Characteristics per Quartile

11 283164

1222.0 27

3.0

57

117

3.0 360

124

53

45

2.5 - 5.0acres

33

$ 115,000

49

35

360

3.0

not available

342.0

1248 5.0 - 10acres

359

$ 70,000

3.0

230

2.5 - 5.0acres$ 169,900

4.0$ 334,900

18

41

1995

Inventory has been decreasing latelybut the Market Action Index is fallingalso. With days-on-market climbing,these are relatively negativeimplications for the market.

Monday January 16, 2012

David Dion | Solutions Real Estate | 480-332-5942 | www.

359

1512

2.0

The median list price in MESA, AZ thisweek is $139,950. The 1438properties have been on the marketfor an average of 148 days.

Most expensive 25% of properties

Upper-middle 25% of properties

Lower-middle 25% of properties

Least expensive 25% of properties

Quartile Median Price Lot Size Beds Baths Age Inventory New Absorbed DOMSq. Ft.

No change

Strong upward trend Strong downward trend

Slight upward trend Slight downward trend±+

== ≠≠

≠=

MESA, AZCity Overview

Least Expensive Listing

Average List Price

Average Age of Listing

1438

$ 4,600,000

$ 16,000

$ 200,896

23

Trend Key:

The market has shown someevidence of slowing recently. Bothprices and inventory levels arerelatively unchanged in recentweeks. Watch the Market ActionIndex for changes as it can be aleading indicator for price changes.

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Single Family Homes in


City OverviewMESA, AZ


Median PriceThe market seems to have paused around this plateau. The Market Action Index is a good leading indicator for the durability ofthis trend.

90-day Average7-day Average

Quartile PricesPrices have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in all four quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift(up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move from these current levels.

First/Top Second/Upper Third/Lower Fourth/Bottom

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Price per Square FootThe market plateau is seen across the price and value. The price per square foot and median list price have both beenreasonably stagnant. Watch the Market Action Index for persistent changes as a leading indicator before the market moves fromthese levels.


Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been falling in recent weeks. Note that declining inventory alone does not signal a strengthening market. Look tothe Market Action Index and Days on Market trends to gauge whether buyer interest is changing with the available supply.


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Market Action IndexThe MESA market is currently in the Buyer's Advantgae zone (below 30), though not strongly so. The 90-day Market Action Indexstands this week at 24.27 so buyers should expect to find reasonable levels of selection.

Buyers/Sellers Cutoff90-day Average

Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly given the overall Market Action Index, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months ofinventory given the current rate of demand for homes in the quartile. Watch the quartile for changes before the overall marketshifts. Often one end of the market (e.g. the low end) will improve and signal a strengthening market before the whole groupchanges.


Buyers/Sellers Cutoff

Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be characterizedby analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index falls into the Buyer’sAdvantage zone (below 30) for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward correction.

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Days on MarketThe properties have been on the market for an average of 148 days. Half of the listings have come newly on the market in thepast 85 or so days.


Days on Market per QuartileIt is not uncommon for the higher priced homes in an area to take longer to sell than those in the lower quartiles.


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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

25.6


1606

2.0

12 %


207


$ 75


not available


$ 116,500

34 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

±+

±+

±+

=

≠




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


18 23534

1322.0 27

2.0

6

108

3.0 34

248

5

5

not available

41

$ 103,450

5

3

34

3.0

not available

32.0

1160 not available

34

$ 74,950

4.0

341

not available$ 147,450

5.0$ 357,900

26

4

2023

The Market Action index has beentrending down lately, while days-on-market is climbing, providing mostlybearish signs for the market.



34

1424

2.0

The median list price in MESA, AZ85205 this week is $116,500. The 136properties have been on the marketfor an average of 207 days.






No change



== ≠≠

≠=

MESA, AZ 85205Neighborhood Detail


Average List Price


136

$ 1,090,000

$ 35,000

$ 196,771

29

Trend Key:


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Neighborhood DetailMESA, AZ 85205


Median PriceWe continue to see prices in this zip code hovering around these current levels, even though they bumped up a bit this week.Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Index before we see prices move significantly from here.


Quartile PricesIn the quartile market segments, we see prices in this zip code have settled at a price plateau across the board. Prices in allfour quartiles are basically mixed. Look for a persistent shift (up or down) in the Market Action Index before prices move fromthese current levels.


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Inventory of Properties Listed for SaleInventory has been relatively steady around these levels in recent weeks.


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Market Action IndexThe MESA, 85205 market is currently in the Buyer's Advantgae zone (below 30), though not strongly so. The 90-day Market ActionIndex stands this week at 25.56 so buyers should expect to find reasonable levels of selection.


Market Action Index per QuartileThree of the four quartiles of this zip code are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Quartile 3 (the low-middle price group) is showing stronger demand than the others, a Seller's market.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

22.3


2369

2.0

11 %


207


$ 109


2.5 - 5.0 acres


$ 274,379

34 %

4.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Strong Buyer's

±+

±+

=

=

±+




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


8 34047

1722.0 11

3.0

10

224

3.0 56

147

2

4

1.0 - 2.5acres

14

$ 220,000

13

10

56

4.0

not available

33.0

1440 not available

56

$ 105,000

4.0

283

10 - 20 acres$ 333,300

4.0$ 572,500

11

4

2732

Days-on-market has been trending uprecently but the Market Action Indexand inventory levels are basically flatand not providing strong indicationsfor the market.



56

2116

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


224

$ 4,600,000

$ 25,000

$ 364,793

13

Trend Key:


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Median PriceRecently prices in this zip have settled at a plateau even though they dipped this week. Look for a persistent up-shift in theMarket Action Index before we see prices significantly move from these levels.




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Price per Square FootThe value placed on homes seems to be trending up, despite the fact that prices in general have remained basically flat. Theseconditions can arise when inventory is light and a greater number of smaller homes have more influence on overall prices.




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Market Action IndexThe MESA, 85207 market is currently quite strongly in the Buyer's Advantage zone (below 30). The 90-day Market Action Indexstands at 22.33. With several months of inventory available at the current sales rate, buyers should find ample choice.


Market Action Index per QuartileThree of the four quartiles of this zip code are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Quartile 1 (the highest price group) is showing stronger demand than the others, a Seller's market, as buyersseem to be placing emphasis on the premium homes.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

16.7


1430

2.0

37 %


234


$ 100


not available


$ 149,900

59 %

2.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Strong Buyer's

≠

±+

±+

=

=




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


16 33232

1172.0 20

2.0

0

217

2.0 24

84

3

0

not available

26

$ 114,500

0

2

25

3.0

not available

42.0

800 not available

24

$ 75,000

3.0

525


4.0$ 374,950

17

0

1718

Inventory has been lightening latelyand the Market Action Index has beentrending up. Though days-on-marketis increasing, these are mildly positiveindications for the market.



24

1320

1.5







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


97

$ 999,000

$ 60,000

$ 205,388

21

Trend Key:


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Median PriceWe continue to see prices in this zip code bouncing around this plateau. Look for a persistent up-shift in the Market Action Indexbefore we see prices move from these levels.




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Market Action Index per QuartileNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels ofdemand. Watch the quartiles for changes before the overall market shifts.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

20.2


1582

2.0

16 %


144


$ 87


not available


$ 139,900

45 %

2.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Strong Buyer's

±+

≠

±+

=

±+




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


26 41885

1682.0 33

2.0

6

143

2.0 35

141

2

5

not available

27

$ 124,900

1

4

35

2.0

not available

02.0

1264 not available

35

$ 95,000

2.0

123


3.0$ 194,900

29

1

1704

Days-on-market has been trending uprecently but the Market Action Indexand inventory levels are basically flatand not providing strong indicationsfor the market.



34

1484

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


139

$ 950,000

$ 34,900

$ 151,500

26

Trend Key:


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Median PriceAgain this week we see a downward notch for prices in this zip code. Pricing has been weak recently and versus their absolute-high level. At this point, we will be looking for a persistent upward shift in the Market Action Index as a leading indicator for atrough in prices.




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Price per Square FootDespite recently falling prices, the price per square foot has stayed reasonably flat. This implies that there's a portion of themarket being priced at a premium. You can investigate this condition in the quartile details.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

26.2


1374

2.0

10 %


104


$ 68


not available


$ 99,850

32 %

2.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

≠

±+

=

=

≠




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


26 21643

1032.0 20

2.0

3

130

3.0 46

67

11

5

not available

34

$ 84,900

5

4

46

2.0

not available

62.0

1168 not available

46

$ 44,950

3.0

118


2.0$ 153,750

26

4

1460




46

1345

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


184

$ 395,000

$ 24,900

$ 103,398

26

Trend Key:


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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

22.7


1769

2.0

5 %


88


$ 88


not available


$ 175,900

36 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Strong Buyer's

≠

≠

≠

=

=




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


11 22129

782.0 15

3.0

8

93

3.0 39

81

7

8

not available

12

$ 151,000

6

3

39

2.0

not available

72.0

1414 not available

39

$ 99,000

3.0

99


3.0$ 272,200

13

7

1888




38

1691

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


155

$ 414,900

$ 22,770

$ 182,779

14

Trend Key:


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Median PricePrices in this zip code been on a downward trend recently and this week, while essentially flat, doesn't break us out of thatcycle. Watch the Market Action Index for any signs of demand increasing.




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Price per Square FootThe market's light downward trends are shared across both price and value. People are recently placing less value on homes(you can see the recent declines in price per square foot as evidence.) Look for significant changes in the Market Action Index asa precursor to price and value changes, possibly as inflection points for good investment opportunities.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

35.7


1454

2.0

12 %


120


$ 68


not available


$ 97,250

19 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Seller's Advantage

≠

±+

=

=

≠




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


32 21906

1972.0 45

3.0

2

121

3.0 12

85

1

4

not available

57

$ 76,000

2

2

12

2.0

not available

12.0

1041 not available

12

$ 41,500

3.0

76


4.0$ 161,450

35

2

1467




12

1341

1.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


48

$ 275,000

$ 26,900

$ 100,898

45

Trend Key:

In the last few weeks the market hasachieved a relative stasis point interms of sales to inventory.However, inventory is sufficientlylow to keep us in the Seller's Marketzone so watch changes in the MAI. Ifthe market heats up, prices arelikely to resume an upward climb.

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Market Action IndexThe MESA, 85210 market is currently in the Seller's Advantage zone (greater than 30). The 90-day Market Action Index stands at35.73 which indicates that demand is strong and available supply of homes gets snapped up relatively quickly.


Market Action Index per QuartileThree of the four quartiles of this zip code are in the Seller's Market zone with relatively low amounts of inventory given thecurrent levels of demand. Quartile 3 (the lower-middle price group) however, is showing weaker demand than the others.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

26.1


1396

2.0

6 %


102


$ 55


5.0 - 10 acres


$ 75,800

29 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

≠

±+

±+

=

=




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


26 12389

1142.0 43

2.5

3

100

3.0 13

73

5

1

not available

55

$ 69,000

2

0

13

2.0

5.0 - 10acres

22.0

1150 not available

13

$ 46,900

3.0

121


4.0$ 150,100

41

2

1445




13

1360

1.5







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


52

$ 495,000

$ 25,000

$ 106,484

38

Trend Key:


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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

25.2


2234

2.0

13 %


108


$ 77


not available


$ 180,000

33 %

4.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

≠

=

±+

≠

=




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


4 23148

932.0 10

3.0

4

142

4.0 28

96

7

2

not available

11

$ 153,900

2

4

29

3.0

not available

43.0

1536 not available

28

$ 120,000

4.0

101


4.0$ 258,900

6

5

2475

Inventory is tightening and days-on-market is falling. The Market ActionIndex shows demand heating up.These are relatively bullish signs forprices.



28

2234

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


113

$ 435,000

$ 49,900

$ 186,642

8

Trend Key:


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Median PriceThe market for this zip code continues its bounce again this week. We're a long way from the market's high point so watch theMarket Action Index to predict how long this trend will last.




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Price per Square FootIn a market where prices are rising mildly, price per square foot is essentially flat. This often implies that new homes coming onthe market are pricier, and also larger than older homes. As a result the value one can buy stays the same.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

27.1


1771

2.0

8 %


128


$ 73


2.5 - 5.0 acres


$ 128,800

24 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

±+

≠

±+

=

=




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


34 12380

972.0 35

3.0

3

190

3.0 13

76

1

3

not available

36

$ 120,000

3

3

13

3.0

not available

22.0

1368 not available

13

$ 85,000

3.0

151

2.5 - 5.0acres$ 145,000

4.0$ 197,500

34

1

1854

Even though the days-on-market istrending higher, so is the MarketAction Index at these inventorylevels, providing a neutral outlook forthe market.



12

1647

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


51

$ 249,900

$ 24,900

$ 134,958

36

Trend Key:


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Median PriceAgain this week we see a downward notch for prices in this zip code. Pricing has been weak recently and versus their absolute-high level. At this point, we will be looking for a persistent upward shift in the Market Action Index as a leading indicator for atrough in prices.




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Price per Square FootDespite recently falling prices, the price per square foot has stayed reasonably flat. This implies that there's a portion of themarket being priced at a premium. You can investigate this condition in the quartile details.




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Market Action Index per QuartileThe lower end of this zip code are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels ofdemand. The high-end of the market is showing demand strength in the Seller's Market zone, while Quartiles 3 and 4 have aMarket Action Index below 30 (Buyer's Market).




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

22.2


2952

3.0

5 %


157


$ 93


1.0 - 2.5 acres


$ 285,000

43 %

4.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Strong Buyer's

≠

=

=

=

≠




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


10 15924

913.0 25

3.0

1

155

4.0 19

110

3

2

1.0 - 2.5acres

33

$ 194,500

4

2

19

5.5

not available

33.0

1552 not available

19

$ 113,900

5.0

273


5.0$ 665,000

13

2

3664




19

2578

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


76

$ 2,800,000

$ 54,900

$ 411,663

23

Trend Key:


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Median PriceThe market for this zip code continues its bounce again this week. We're a long way from the market's high point so watch theMarket Action Index to predict how long this trend will last.




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Price per Square FootThe price per square foot is increasing a bit recently and overall price trends haven't shown a consistent upwardly push. This canimply that investment conditions are opportunistic. Watch the Remodel Index for a more detailed analysis of the investmentopportunity in the area.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

24.6


1854

2.0

11 %


147


$ 69


not available


$ 119,950

34 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

≠

±+

=

=

≠




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


32 13526

2052.0 35

3.0

2

120

3.0 19

101

2

2

not available

42

$ 107,900

3

0

19

3.0

not available

12.0

1433 not available

18

$ 65,000

4.0

161


4.5$ 334,450

30

1

2034




18

1579

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


74

$ 800,000

$ 16,000

$ 172,718

35

Trend Key:


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Market Action Index per QuartileThree of the four quartiles of this zip code are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Quartile 1 (the highest price group) is showing stronger demand than the others, a Seller's market, as buyersseem to be placing emphasis on the premium homes.




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Median List Price

Median Lot Size

28.3


1538

2.0

7 %


119


$ 62


not available


$ 90,000

24 %

3.0

Market Action Index



n/a


Buyer's Advantage

≠

=

=

=

±+




Bottom/Fourth

Lower/Third

Upper/Second

Top/First



Supply and Demand


30 31763

1182.0 32

3.0

4

180

3.0 22

91

3

3

not available

40

$ 82,200

5

2

23

2.0

not available

52.0

1318 not available

22

$ 57,000

3.0

90


4.0$ 152,450

31

3

1510

Inventory has been tightening anddays-on-market increasing recently.The Market Action Index has beenbasically flat, not providing strongindication for market conditions.



22

1433

2.0







No change



== ≠≠

≠=



Average List Price


89

$ 644,900

$ 23,000

$ 108,489

34

Trend Key:


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Median PriceDespite this week's down tic, price trends in this zip code have been moving up in the last few weeks. We are below themarket's high point, and we'll investigate the Market Action Index later on to see if we expect this week's blip to become adownward trend.




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Price per Square FootThe price per square foot is increasing a bit recently and overall price trends haven't shown a consistent upwardly push. This canimply that investment conditions are opportunistic. Watch the Remodel Index for a more detailed analysis of the investmentopportunity in the area.




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Market Action Index per QuartileThe lower end of this zip code are in the Buyer's Market zone with several months of inventory given the current levels ofdemand. The high-end of the market is showing demand strength in the Seller's Market zone, while Quartiles 3 and 4 have aMarket Action Index below 30 (Buyer's Market).




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Mesa Az Market Trends and Updates 1-16-2012

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Transcript of Mesa Az Market Trends and Updates 1-16-2012