November 2, 2015 Dear Colleague: Enclosed you will find the CV's … · 416 978-6713 •...

Max Gluskin House, 150 St. George Street, Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Canada • http://www.economics.utoronto.ca

Tel: +1 416 978-8343 • Fax: +1 416 978-6713 • [email protected]

Burhan Kuruscu Associate Professor and Placement Officer

November 2, 2015

Dear Colleague:

Enclosed you will find the CV's and thesis abstracts of our PhD students on the job

market this year. We would appreciate your giving these candidates serious consideration

for any openings you may have in your department. Job market papers and other relevant

information are located in each student's website. Links to all these pages can be found

at:

http://www.economics.utoronto.ca/index.php/index/graduate/jobCandidates

Should you require any further information on these students, please do not hesitate to

give me a call at (416) 978-8343 or email me at [email protected].

Sincerely,

Burhan Kuruscu

Ayesha Ali

Business Address

Department of Economics

University of Toronto

150 St. George Street

Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

Phone: (647) 866-7849

Fax: (416) 978-6713

Email: [email protected]

Web: https://sites.google.com/site/aliayesha01/

Home Address

Unit 710, 88 Erskine Avenue

Toronto, ON M4P 1Y3

Canada

Phone: (647) 866-7849

Citizenship Pakistani, Canadian Permanent Resident

Languages English (fluent), Urdu (native), Arabic (beginner)

Research Interests Development Economics, Energy Economics, Political Economy, International

Economics

Teaching Interests Development Economics, Microeconomics, Energy Economics, International

Economics

Education

2011-present PhD, Economics, University of Toronto (expected 2016)

Dissertation: Essays in Energy and Political Economy in Developing Countries

Committee: Dwayne Benjamin (co-supervisor), Gustavo J. Bobonis (co-

supervisor), Nicholas Li

2007-2009 MA, International Policy Studies, Stanford University

2006- 2007 MA, Economics, University of British Columbia

2003-2006 BComm (Hons.), Economics and Finance, McGill University

Awards

Ranjit Kumar Graduate Fellowship, 2015-16

Ontario Graduate Scholarship, 2014-15

Canadian Society for Labour Market Research Network (CSLRN) Fellowship, 2013-2014

University of Toronto Graduate Fellowship 2011-15

Stanford IPS Commencement Speaker 2009

Fulbright Scholar 2007-09

Sir Edward Beatty Gold Medal in Economics 2006

James McGill Award 2004-05

mailto:[email protected]

Ayesha Ali

2

Research Papers

“Electricity Outages and Employment: Evidence from Energy Prices and Thermal Power Plants in

Pakistan” (job market paper)

“Measuring the Welfare Impact of Electricity Outages on Households” (in progress)

“Do Political Dynasties Hinder Development?” (in progress)

Professional Experience

2011-2015: Teaching Assistant, University of Toronto

ECO 105 Principles of Economics (Head TA for 3 years)

ECO 324 Development Economics

ECO 314 Energy Economics

ECO 206 Intermediate Microeconomics

2012, 2013: Research Assistant, University of Toronto

Assisted Professor Daniel Trefler for “Capabilities, Wealth and Trade”

2009-2011: Consultant, World Bank, Islamabad

Assisted the Finance and Private Sector Division on investment climate research

and entrepreneurship in Pakistan’s IT sector

2010-2011: Research Fellow, Centre for Research in Economics and Business at Lahore

School of Economics, Lahore

Co-wrote paper on the history of geo-political rents and growth in Pakistan

Summer 2008: Visiting Scholar, Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF, Washington DC

Wrote paper on the IMF’s role in trade policy in Bangladesh

Conferences

2015 International Growth Centre Conference on Energy and Growth, London

Computational Skills

Stata, ArcGIS, Matlab

Ayesha Ali

3

References

Dwayne Benjamin

Professor and Chair




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

phone: (416) 978-6130

email: [email protected]

Gustavo J. Bobonis

Associate Professor of Economics




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

phone: (416) 946-5299


Nicholas Li

Assistant Professor of Economics



Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

phone: (416) 978-4178


Avi Cohen

Professor of Economics



Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

phone: (416) 978 -0605


Ayesha Ali

4

Dissertation Abstract

Essays in Energy and Political Economy in Developing Countries

“Electricity Outages and Employment: Evidence from Energy Prices and

Thermal Power Plants in Pakistan” (job market paper) Electricity outages are a common occurrence in many developing countries and can have a substantial

impact on household welfare. I investigate the direct effect of outages on earnings and employment in

Pakistan using household and district level data from 2004 to 2011. I use meteorological satellite data to

construct a district level measure of variability in night lights as a measure of outages. To address the

endogeneity in the occurrence of outages due to correlation with local economic conditions, I use plausibly

exogenous spatial variation in the price of energy used to generate electricity at thermal plants close to a

district as an instrument for outages. I find that outages have a large and negative effect on employment,

days worked, earnings and productivity of adult males. A larger effect on educated workers likely to be

engaged in electricity intensive production suggests labour demand driven reduction in productivity.

Districts with more outages experience a decrease in employment in electricity intensive sectors and

increase in employment in low skill occupations.

Measuring the Welfare Impact of Electricity Outages on Households I develop a model of utility maximization in which electricity outages can have a direct impact on

household income, cause re-allocation of time devoted to home and market activities, induce averting

expenditures, and cause disutility due to loss of service. The framework is based on the concept of the

home production function introduced by Becker (1960), and the constrained utility maximization approach

used in Harrington and Portney (1985) and Deschenes and Greenstone (2011) to measure the welfare

impact of environmental changes. I compare different revealed preference methods that can be used to

estimate the parameters of the model including non-experimental data, field experiments, and contingent

valuation surveys. Since it is not feasible to assign outages randomly, non-experimental approaches such as

using seasonal variation in outages within households or neighbourhoods, and contingent valuation

approach can provide valuable information to estimate the different components of the welfare cost of

outages.

Do political dynasties hinder development? This paper investigates whether politicians belonging to dynasties act in the interest of the voters that elect

them. A political dynasty is defined as a network of family politicians who come to power in an election

based regime. Dynasties are a prevalent form of transmission of political power in many new as well as

established democracies. I use electoral constituency level data on election outcomes, politician spending

on development programs, and politician affiliation with a dynasty over two election cycles in Pakistan

from 2001 to 2012, together with a difference in difference and regression discontinuity design to estimate

the impact of dynasties on development spending and local economic outcomes. Preliminary results show

that dynastic politicians spend more in their constituencies, these constituencies experience faster local

economic growth as measured by brightness in night lights, but there is no significant impact on

development outcomes.

Graham Beattie

Business Address Department of Economics



Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

Phone: (416) 278-4478


Web: https://sites.google.com/site/rgrahambeattie/

Home Address 140 Erskine Ave, Apt PH8

Toronto, ON M4P 1Z2

Canada

Phone: 416-278-4478

Citizenship Canadian

Languages English (Native), French (Intermediate)

Research Interests Environmental Economics

Political Economy

Applied Microeconomics

Teaching Interests Environmental Economics


Microeconomic Theory

Education

2010-present Ph.D, Economics, University of Toronto (expected June 2016)

Dissertation: Media Coverage of Climate Change

Committee: Robert McMillan (supervisor), Matthew Turner, and Yosh

Halberstam

2014 Visiting Research Fellow, Brown University

2008-2009 MA, Economics, University of Toronto

2004-2008 BA (Hon), Economics, McGill University

Awards

SGS Conference Grant, University of Toronto, 2015

Doctoral Completion Award, University of Toronto, 2014-2015

Tom Easterbrook Graduate Scholarship in Communications and the Mass Media, 2013

Award for Excellence in Teaching by Teaching Assistants, University of Toronto, 2013

University of Toronto Fellowship, 2010-2014

Graduate Admission Award, University of Toronto, 2010

First Class Honours, McGill University, 2008

https://sites.google.com/site/rgrahambeattie/

Graham Beattie

2

Research Papers

“Advertising, Media Capture, and Public Opinion: The Case of Climate Change” (job market

paper)

“Advertising Spending and Media Bias: Evidence from News Coverage of Car Safety Recalls”

with Ruben Durante, Brian Knight, and Ananya Sen (in progress)

“Agenda Setting: BBC Policy and Coverage of Climate Change” (in progress)

“Biased Media in an Unbiased Market” (working paper)


2013: Course Instructor, University of Toronto

Advanced Micro Theory (undergraduate)

2010-Present Teaching Assistant, University of Toronto

Graduate (2013-2015): Micro Theory, Political Economy

Undergraduate (2010-present): Micro Theory (intermediate/advanced),

Environmental Economics, Energy and Resource Economics, Political Economy,

Labour Economics, Market Design, Introductory Economics

2009-2013: Research Assistant, University of Toronto and Centre for the Study of Living

Standards

Yosh Halberstam (Toronto), Political Economy

Ettore Damiano (Toronto), Political Economy

Andrew Sharpe (CSLS), Urban and Aboriginal Development

2009-2010 Economic Analyst, Canadian International Development Agency

Conference Presentations

2015 Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Meeting

Canadian Economic Association Annual Meeting

Camp Resources Workshop (North Carolina State University)

Doctoral Workshop in Applied Econometrics (Ryerson University)

Computing Skills Matlab, Stata, Latex

Graham Beattie

3

References

Professor Robert McMillan




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

phone: (416) 978-4190


Professor Matthew Turner


Brown University

Box B

Providence, RI 02912

phone: (401) 863-9331


Professor Yosh Halberstam




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

phone: (416) 978-4537


Graham Beattie

4


Climate Change in the Media

Advertising, Media Capture, and Public Opinion: The Case of Climate Change

(Job Market Paper)

Despite there being an overwhelming scientific consensus, significant disagreement persists among the

general public regarding the causes and consequences of climate change. This paper analyzes the

divergence between the scientific community and the public through the lens of media capture. I develop

a theoretical model in which consumers prefer reading coverage they agree with, advertisers in carbon-

emitting industries want to access climate-skeptical consumers who are more predisposed towards their

products, and newspapers choose coverage to maximize profits. The model predicts that newspapers are

captured by advertisers, as they increase climate-change skepticism in their coverage when they expect

high levels of advertising from carbon-emitting industries, for example, around the launch of a new truck.

To bring the model to the data, I develop an objective measure of the tone of climate change coverage, by

creating an index which uses phrase frequency analysis to compare newspaper text with the UN's IPCC

reports and the Heartland Institute’s skeptical response. The index captures how closely newspaper text

aligns with each report and classifies text that shares more language with the IPCC report as being more

environmental. Using the index, rich panel data on advertising, and also survey data, I find that

advertising from carbon-emitting industries is correlated with skeptical coverage of climate change in US

newspapers during the period 2005-2008. To isolate a causal effect of advertising on coverage, I develop

a Bartik-like instrument, which is the product of time-invariant differences between newspapers and

national advertising trends. Both of these factors are independent of newspaper-specific shocks to

coverage, providing an exogenous shifter for advertising in a specification including a full set of

newspaper and time fixed-effects. The IV analysis shows that advertising allows firms in carbon-emitting

industries to capture media by lowering concern about climate change in coverage. Within-newspaper,

advertising reduces the quantity of coverage and shifts the tone towards skepticism. I also find that

changes in coverage of climate change are correlated with changes in public opinion with exposure to

skeptical coverage making consumers less likely to support environmental policies. This supports the

claim that media capture by firms in carbon-emitting industries increases public skepticism of climate

change. Specifically, during the period 2005-2008, media capture led more than 0.5% of all Americans to

prioritize economic growth over environmental protection.

Agenda Setting: BBC Policy and Newspaper Coverage of Climate Change (in progress)

Media coverage of climate change is often criticized for being too ‘balanced’. Journalistic norms require

that a media outlet cover all sides of a contentious issue, which leads to an over-representation of minority

opinions. Shapiro (2015) points out that, in the case of climate change, the small proportion of scientists

and public intellectuals who espouse a skeptical perspective receive considerable coverage. In July 2014,

the BBC Trust changed their policy to address this issue. They amended their reporting policy to

encourage journalists to emphasize the scientific consensus over skepticism. In this paper, I analyze how

this policy change affected newspaper coverage in Britain using an event-study framework. I find

evidence that it caused a divergence in coverage: left-wing newspapers followed the lead of the BBC and

reduced climate skepticism in their coverage, while right-wing newspapers responded by becoming more

skeptical. This analysis sheds light on the ability of a major media outlet to affect the tone of coverage

across all media.

Graham Beattie

5

Biased Media in an Unbiased Market (working paper)

I propose a model that explores the issue of media bias. In the model, a news event consists of a series of

facts, each one supporting either the left-wing or right-wing side of an issue, such as carbon taxation or

health-care spending. A media outlet learns about an event one fact at a time and then chooses which facts

to relay to consumers. Consumers then use media reports to infer the quality of the outlet by comparing

coverage to their prior beliefs. This creates an incentive for media outlets to present a set of facts that

align with consumer beliefs. However, it is costly for a media outlet to learn additional facts to ensure that

this alignment is perfect. I show that if the ex-ante probability that a given fact supports the left-wing side

of the issue is not one-half, reporting may be biased even if both consumers and media outlets are not.

The expected proportion of left-wing facts in media coverage may differ from the expected proportion of

left-wing facts in the realization of the event, even if the expected proportion in the realization of the

event is known by all parties. This finding complements the literature that discusses demand-driven

(Gentzkow and Shapiro, 2010) and supply-driven (Baron, 2006) media bias by showing that biased media

coverage can arise when neither a media outlet nor its consumers are biased.

Jeff Chan

Business Address




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

Phone: 647-968-9725


Web: https://sites.google.com/site/jeffchaneconomics

Home Address

570 Bay Street

Apartment 910

Toronto, ON M5G 0B2

Canada

Phone: 647-968-9725


Languages English

Research Interests International Trade

Labour Economics

Teaching Interests International Trade

Microeconomics

Econometrics


Education

2016 PhD, Economics, University of Toronto (2010-)

(expected)

Dissertation: Essays in International Trade

Committee: Peter Morrow (supervisor), Daniel Trefler, Kunal Dasgupta

2010 MA, Economics, University of Toronto (2009-2010)

2009 BA, Economics, University of Western Ontario (2005-2009)

Awards

Ontario Graduate Scholarship, 2013

Harry Eastman Graduate Award, 2012

UWO Economics Academic Achievement Award, 2008

Dr. W. Glenn Campbell and Dr. Mark K. Inman Scholarship in Economics, 2008

UWO Continuing Entrance Scholarship, 2005

Jeff Chan

2

Research Papers

Any Port in a Storm: Import Competition and Match Quality Downgrading (2015)

(Job Market Paper)

Does Import Competition Worsen the Gender Gap? Evidence from Matched Employer-Employee

Data (2015)

Soldiers and the Structure of Trade: Evidence from 50 Years of U.S. Military Deployments (2015)

(Revise and Resubmit at Scandinavian Journal of Economics)

Work in Progress

Import Competition and Inventors

The U.S. Civil War and Internal Migration, Occupations, and Productivity in Nineteenth Century

America

Publications

The Long-Run Impact of the Power Loom: Evidence from 19th Century Prussia (2014),

Economics Bulletin, Vol. 34(3): 1776-1791.


2009-current: Teaching Assistant, University of Toronto

$ Courses: International Trade, International Monetary Theory, Intermediate

Microeconomics, Quantitative Methods

$ Conducted tutorials, graded written assignments and exams, conducted office

hours

2011-2015: Research Assistant, University of Toronto

$ Assisted Peter Morrow, Phil Oreopoulos, Bernardo Blum, Michel Serafinelli


2015: Midwest International Trade and Economic Theory Meetings (Columbus)

Canadian Economics Association Conference (Toronto)

Econometric Society World Congress (Montreal)

2014: Canadian Economics Association Conference (Vancouver)

Jeff Chan

3

Seminar Presentations

2015: University of Toronto (International Trade Seminar)

University of Toronto (Summer Workshop for Empirical Microeconomics)

2012: University of Toronto (International Trade Seminar)

References

Professor Peter Morrow




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

phone: (416) 978-4375


Professor Daniel Trefler

Rotman School of Management



Toronto, ON M5S 3E6

phone: (416) 946-7945


Professor Kunal Dasgupta




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

phone: (416) 946-8041


Jeff Chan

4


Any Port in a Storm: Import Competition and Match Quality Downgrading

(Job Market Paper)

This paper provides clear evidence that increased exposure to import competition from low-income countries

results in lower quality matches between workers and firms, using matched employer-employee data from Italy.

I measure match quality as the match (worker-firm) fixed effect from a wage regression that includes a rich set

of time-varying observables, as well as worker and firm fixed effects. In order to account for the potential

endogeneity of industry-level imports, I use imports in non-European countries as an instrumental variable.

Import shocks reduce match quality, shifting the entire distribution of match effects leftward. This occurs

because workers accept worse matches, but not because of workers in good matches leaving their jobs. Back-

of-the-envelope calculations suggest that a one standard deviation increase in import competition decreases

profitability per worker by approximately 10% through lower match quality, for the average firm.

Does Import Competition Worsen the Gender Gap? Evidence from

Matched Employer-Employee Data

Using a matched employer-employee data set for the Italian region of Veneto, I examine whether import

competition improves or worsens the gender gap in labour market outcomes. I find that import competition

lowers women's wages relative to men when controlling for unobserved worker and firm heterogeneity. In

contrast, cross-sectional estimates suggest that the wage gap closes with increased import competition. The

disparity between the fixed effects and cross-sectional estimates can be explained by two mechanisms: 1)

women are disproportionately more likely to switch industries to avoid import competition, into firms that pay

less, and 2) firms that employ women are disproportionately more likely to exit and reduce employment due to

import competition. I further find that women in white-collar occupations drive the widening of the gender gap

in outcomes. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that import competition can explain 48.9% of the

increase in the gender wage gap for white-collar workers.

Soldiers and the Structure of Trade: Evidence from 50 Years of U.S.

Military Deployments

Using data on U.S. troops levels in countries around the world, I show that increased numbers of U.S. troops in

a country is associated with increased exports to and imports from the U.S. I provide additional evidence to

argue that this effect is not driven by favourable U.S. policies that may have coincided with troop increases. I

find that the pro-trade effect of troop increases is concentrated in industries where the country of export (either

the U.S. or the foreign country) has a comparative advantage. The evidence strongly supports the existence of a

pro-trade effect of soldiers abroad. I interpret my results through the lens of a modified Eaton and Kortum

(2002) model where reductions in uncertainty about prices due to increases in troop levels increase trade flows,

but only in industries where a source country has a comparative advantage. The results in this paper

complement abundant anecdotal evidence that suggests that American military personnel bring back goods and

culture from countries they are posted in while also spreading American culture and goods.

David A. Cimon

1

David A. Cimon

Business Address Department of Economics



Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

Phone: (647) 383-6739

Email:[email protected]

Web: sites.google.com/site/dcimon


Languages English, French

Research Interests Financial Economics

Financial Market Microstructure

Corporate Finance

Teaching Interests Financial Economics

Financial Market Microstructure

Corporate Finance

Education

2011-Present PhD, Economics, University of Toronto (expected 2016)

Dissertation: Essays in Financial Market Microstructure

Committee: Andreas Park (supervisor), Jordi Mondria, Liyan Yang

2010-2011 MA, Economics, Carleton University

2006-2010 BSocSci, Economics (magna cum laude), University of Ottawa

Awards

University of Toronto SGS Conference Grant, 2014

University of Toronto Graduate Fellowship, 2011-2015

Carleton University Graduate Scholarship, 2010-2011

University of Ottawa Merit Scholarship, 2009-2010

https://sites.google.com/site/dcimon/

https://sites.google.com/site/dcimon/

David A. Cimon

2

Working Papers

“Broker Routing Decisions in Limit Order Markets” (Job Market Paper)

Presented at: SFS Cavalcade (2015), ERIC Doctoral Consortium (2015) – Second-Best

Doctoral Paper Award, TADC (2015), CEA Annual Conference (2015), Copenhagen

Business School (2014), University of Toronto (2014)

“Exchange Traded Funds and Their Impact on Volatility”

Presented at: CEA Annual Conference (2014), University of Toronto (2013)

Work in Progress

“Crowdfunding and the Transfer of Risk to Consumers”


2010-present: Teaching Assistant, University of Toronto and Carleton University (# of terms)

Investments (7); Microeconomic Theory (6); Monetary Economics (5); Corporate

Finance (5); Behavioural Finance (2); Financial Market Microstructure; Financial

Market Trading; Graduate Macroeconomics; Introductory Economics

2013-present: Research Assistant, University of Toronto

Toronto: Andreas Park and Katya Malinova (2013), Peter Cziraki (2015)

References

Professor Andreas Park (Supervisor)

Department of Management

University of Toronto Mississauga

Joseph L. Rotman School of Management


Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E6

Phone: 416-946-5187


Professor Jordi Mondria



150 St. George Street, Rm 227

Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G7

Phone: 416-978-1494


Professor Liyan Yang

Joseph L. Rotman School of Management



Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E6

Phone: 416-978-3930


David A. Cimon

3


Essays in Financial Market Microstructure

Job Market Paper: Broker Routing Decisions in Limit Order Markets

Many investors do not access equity markets directly; instead they rely on a broker who receives

their order and submits it to a trading venue. Brokers face a conflict of interest when the

commissions they receive from investors differ from the costs imposed by different trading venues.

Investors want their orders to be filled with the highest probability, while brokers choose venues in

order to maximize their own profits. I construct a model of limit order trading in which brokers

serve as an agent for investors who wish to access equity markets. When routing liquidity taking

orders (market orders), brokers preferentially route to venues with lower fees, driving up the

execution probability at these venues and lowering adverse selection costs. However, when routing

liquidity supplying orders (limit orders), if routing decisions are driven primarily by rebates from

the exchanges, investors suffer from lower execution probability and higher costs of adverse

selection. I find that when rebates for making liquidity are sufficiently similar across venues,

routing decisions will be driven by the higher execution probability, while if rebates are sufficiently

different, routing will be driven by rebates.

Exchange Traded Funds and Their Impact on Volatility

In this paper, I present a static model of informed limit order book trading in which market

participants trade in either cash markets or basket securities resembling Exchange Traded Funds

(ETFs). I show that following the introduction of ETFs, underlying assets have an ex-ante increase

in trade price variance with an accompanying posterior decrease in the expected difference between

trading prices and realized asset value. Spreads in underlying asset markets also decrease,

conditional on underlying asset values becoming more certain in the presence of an ETF. Further,

I show excess (positive or negative) covariance in the execution price of underlying assets, as a

result of information generated in the market for the basket securities.

Alfia Karimova

Business Address Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Phone: (647) 709-3962 Fax: (416) 978-6713 Email: [email protected] Web: http://individual.utoronto.ca/alfiakarimova

Home Address 352 Front St. West, Unit 1914 Toronto, ON M5V 0K3 Canada

Citizenship Canadian Languages English, Russian Research Interests Health Economics

Labour Economics Development Economics

Teaching Interests Health Economics

Econometrics Labour Economics

Education


Dissertation: Three Essays in Health Economics Committee: Michael Baker (supervisor), Gustavo J. Bobonis, Shari Eli

2008-2009 MA, Economics, University of Guelph

2003-2008 BComm, Management Economics in Industry and Finance, University of Guelph

Awards

Dorothy J. Powell Graduate Scholarship in International Economics, 2014 The Helleiner Graduate Fellowship, 2014 Royal Bank Graduate Fellowship in Public and Economic Policy, 2014 Doctoral Completion Award, 2013-2015 Canadian Labour Market and Skills Research Network Fellowship, 2012 University of Toronto Graduate Fellowship, 2009-2013 Board of Graduate Studies Research Scholarship, 2008-2009

Alfia Karimova

2

Publications and Research Papers

Learning by Doing: Evidence From Prenatal Ramadan Exposure, (Job Market Paper)

Bug Bites: Dengue Virus During Pregnancy, (In Progress) Cesarean Delivery and Child Health: Investigating a Causal Link Using Tort Law Reforms, (In

Progress), joint with Lisa Stockley

Quantile Regression Analysis of the Rational Addiction Model: Investigating Heterogeneity in Forward-Looking Behavior, Health Economics 19, no. 9 (2010): 1063-1074, joint with Audrey Laporte and Brian Ferguson


2013-2015: Course Instructor, University of Toronto

* Topics in Health Economics, Health Economics


* Health Economics, Gender and Economics, Applied Econometrics for Commerce, Labour Economics, Game Theory, Microeconomic Theory for Commerce, Introductory Economics

* Taught tutorials, graded problems and essays


* Assisted Professor Michael Baker and Professor Audrey Laporte * Cleaned data, estimated models of child health, hospital efficiency, conducted

literature review

2008-2009: Teaching Assistant, University of Guelph

* Introductory Mathematical Economics, Introductory Microeconomics * Taught tutorials, graded problems

Other Professional Activities

Teaching Assistant Training Coordinator, 2015

Student Representative, Economics Graduate Appeals Committee, 2013, 2014

Panel Member, Health Out Loud! Conference, 2014

Conferences and Seminar Presentations

University of Toronto CEPA 2015 and 2014, Annual Meeting of the CEA 2015, Annual CHESG Meeting 2015, Annual Doctoral Workshop in Applied Econometrics 2015

Alfia Karimova

3

References

Professor Michael Baker Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 phone: (416) 978-4138 email: [email protected]

Professor Gustavo J. Bobonis Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 phone: (416) 946-5299 email: [email protected]

Professor Shari Eli Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 phone: (416) 946-7630 email: [email protected]

Alfia Karimova

4


Learning by Doing: Evidence From Prenatal Ramadan Exposure (Job Market Paper)

Previous research has shown that fasting during pregnancy has adverse effects on fetal and adult health of the offspring. This paper examines whether mothers time pregnancy to avoid the Islamic month of fasting, Ramadan, and the mechanisms behind the avoidance behaviour. Using fertility data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey on women in the world's largest Muslim country, I find that approximately 7 percent of pregnancies are timed to avoid Ramadan, and 3 percent of women who use contraceptives do so strategically for this purpose. Mothers learn to avoid exposure to Ramadan from their prior experience of pregnancy during Ramadan, with the effects driven by first and third trimester exposure. My results have two distinct implications. First, they imply a potential need for clarification on earlier studies about the impact of Ramadan exposure during pregnancy, as the studies assume that women do not selectively time conception to avoid Ramadan. Second, my findings suggest a new channel through which family planning programs may improve child health - by allowing mothers to effectively plan pregnancy to avoid predictable variation in the prenatal environment.

Bug Bites: Dengue Virus During Pregnancy

Dengue is one of the most important mosquito-borne viral diseases in the world. Two and a half billion people live in endemic areas where outbreaks occur every 3-5 years, and as many as 390 million people are infected annually. At the same time, there is a scarcity of evidence on the consequences of exposure to dengue during pregnancy on infant health. Understanding the full scope of the burden of the dengue virus, including its effects during the prenatal period, is crucial for assessment of cost-effectiveness of public and private efforts aimed at dengue surveillance, management, and treatment. In this study, I combine data from the Passive Dengue Surveillance System and birth records data for Puerto Rico for the years 1989-2003, to analyze the relationship between incidence of the dengue virus and pregnancy outcomes. I find that exposure to dengue in the first trimester is associated with an increased risk of miscarriage. Consistent with the habitat of mosquitos carrying the virus, I find that the effects are larger in magnitude for less educated mothers, mothers from urban areas, and mothers who reside in densely populated areas.

Mengxiao Liu

Business Address Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Phone: (647) 997-0219 Email: [email protected] Web: www.individual.utoronto.ca/mengxiao_liu

Home Address 152 Saint Patrick St. Toronto, ON M5T 3J9 Canada

Citizenship Chinese Languages English, Mandarin (native), Japanese (basic) Programs Stata, Mathematica, Python, Pajek, Adobe Illustrator, MATLAB Research Interests International Economics

Industrial Organization Organizational Economics Network Economics

Teaching Interests International Trade Microeconomic Theory

Industrial Organization Education

2015 PhD, Economics, University of Toronto (2009-present) Distinction in Microeconomic Comprehensive Exam Dissertation: Three Essays on Global Supply Chains Committee: Daniel Trefler (supervisor), Peter Morrow, Kunal Dasgupta

2009 MA, Economics, University of British Columbia (2008-2009)

2008 BA, Economics, Nanjing University (2004-2008)

Awards

Doctoral Completion Award, 2014-2015 University of Toronto SGS Conference Grant, 2013-2014 Dorothy Powell Graduate Scholarship in International Economics, 2011-2014 University of Toronto Fellowship, 2009-2014 University of British Columbia Tuition Fellowship, 2008-2009 Nanjing University People’s Scholarship, 2004-2007 Nanjing University Kaiyuan Scholarship, 2005-2006

Mengxiao Liu

2

Research Papers

Global Supply Chains without Principals (Job Market Paper)

* Previous Title: “The Missing Option in Firm Boundary Decisions”

* 80th International Atlantic Economic Conference at Boston, 2015 * Canadian Economic Annual Conference, 2015

Contracts, Product Design, and Firm Boundary Decisions (with Daniel Trefler and Nathan

Nunn)

* Previous Title: “Quality and Scope in Production Networks” * Midwest Economic Theory and International Trade Conference, 2014 * Canadian Economic Annual Conference, Montreal, 2013 * RCEF: Cities, Open Economies, and Public Policy, 2012

Work in Progress

Global Sourcing: An Empirical Examination (with Elhanan Helpman and Daniel Trefler) A Network Approach to Global Supply Chains Power of Culture: The Effect of Korean Dramas on Sino-Korean Trade


2013-present: Referee, Journal of International Economics 2012-present: Instructor, University of Toronto

* International Trade for third year undergraduates

2009-present: Teaching Assistant, University of Toronto

* International Trade for third year undergraduates * Microeconomic and Macroeconomic theory for second year undergraduates * Financial Economics for third year undergraduates * Economic Theory for graduate students

2009-present: Research Assistant, University of Toronto

* Professor Daniel Trefler * Compiled U.S. patent database

Mengxiao Liu

3

References

Professor Daniel Trefler Rotman School of Management and Department of Economics University of Toronto 105 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3E6 phone: (416) 946-7945 email: [email protected]

Professor Peter Morrow Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 phone: (416) 978-4375 email: [email protected]

Assistant Professor Kunal Dasgupta Department of Economics 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 phone: (416) 946-8041 email: [email protected]

Mengxiao Liu

4


Global Supply Chains without Principals My job market paper is inspired by one common assumption in studies on global value chains, which is that there is a principal firm who decides whether to integrate or outsource its component supplier(s) or distributors/retailers. The definition of this principal firm is largely customary in previous literature. In some occasions the downstream firms are assumed to be the principals, in other occasions the upstream firms. Once the principal firm is determined, integration decisions become unidirectional, it goes either backward or forward, but never in both directions. The firm boundary decision thus consists of two components, integration versus outsourcing. To test the validity of a principal assumption, I develop a property rights model which allows integration to go both ways, backward and forward. A pair of buyer-seller firms choose from three options, backward integration (buyer owns seller), forward integration (seller owns buyer), and outsourcing. To test the predictions these two theoretical constructions, I compile a relationship database that contains 85,783 buyer-seller relationships between 25,919 firms from 122 countries. I find that integration is bilateral within 774 out of 2,754 industry pairs. A model that allows integration to go both ways is better supported by the data. A model with a principal firm can be supported or rejected by the data depending on whether the buyer firms or the seller firms are assumed to be the principals. This implies that a property rights model with a principal firm is non-falsifiable because it can support any data pattern by switching the principal assumption.

Contracts, Product Design, and Firm Boundary Decisions In this paper I develop a theoretical framework in which heterogeneous firms separately choose their output level and their product quality. In this framework, a firm makes its production decision in three stages: product design and organizational choice; investment; production. As a result, this framework generates predictions about the firm's quality and organizational choice. The main results are that more productive firms choose to produce inputs with higher quality and produce more complicated products. However, the organizational decision is complicated: the most productive firms choose to integrate their suppliers; the least productive firms choose to outsource their suppliers; for firms in between, their organizational decision is ambiguous.

A Network Approach to Global Supply Chains The contractual theories of vertical integration explain firm integration as means to overcome market transaction costs, while research in industrial organizational relates firm integration to market/industry structure. This paper attempts to combine these two perspectives on firm integration behaviour. Using a buyer-seller relationships database, I construct a global supply chain network with contractual measures. I then study the interactions between network characteristics, contractual incompleteness, and firms’ integration behaviour.

Joshua Murphy

Business Address




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

Fax: (416) 978-6713

Home Address

505-50 Prince Arthur Avenue

Toronto, ON M5R 1B5, Canada

Phone: (647) 654-9646

E-mail: [email protected]

Web: www.joshmurphyeconomics.wordpress.com


Research Interests Public Economics

Environmental Economics


Teaching Interests Public Economics

Environmental Economics

Quantitative Methods

Education

2010-present Ph.D., Economics, University of Toronto (expected 2016)

Dissertation: “Three Essays in Environmental Economics”

Committee: Robert McMillan (supervisor), Kory Kroft, and Eduardo Souza-

Rodrigues

2010 M.A., Economics, Queen’s University

Thesis: “Self-enforcing International Environmental Agreements with

Damage Cost Uncertainty” (winner of best M.A. essay)

Supervisors: Devon Garvie and Robin Boadway

2008 B.A. (Honours), Economics (major) and Psychology (minor), Queen’s University

Research Papers

“Air Pollution, Adult Mortality, and Optimal Environmental Regulation” [Job market paper]

“The U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 and the Health Effects of Air Pollution”

“Deforestation in the Amazon: Measuring the Effects of the Priority List”

(with Robert McMillan and Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues)

“The Health Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Severe Air Pollution: Evidence from the U.K.

Clean Air Act of 1956” (with Robert McMillan) [In progress]

Joshua Murphy

2

Awards, Grants, and Honours

Doctoral Completion Award, University of Toronto, 2014 and 2015

Dorothy J. Powell Scholarship, University of Toronto, 2013

Ontario Graduate Scholarship, 2012

Doctoral Fellowship, University of Toronto, 2010-2013

Scarthingmoor Prize for Best M.A. Essay in Economics, Queen’s University, 2009

Dean’s Honour List with Distinction, Queen’s University, 2008

Invited presentations

May 2015: Discussant for “Severe Air Pollution and Labor Productivity” by Teng Li, Haoming

Liu, and Alberto Salvo at the 3rd Northeast workshop on Energy Policy and

Environmental Economics, Yale University


2011-2015: Graduate Help Desk, University of Toronto Mississauga

One-on-one help for students in core economics courses

Advised students on essay writing and empirical projects


Public Economics

Grading and assistance with development of course material

Quantitative methods

Held weekly office hours, tutorials, and exam preparation sessions

Urban Economics

Grading and e-mail communication with students

Applied Econometrics

Grading and weekly office hours

Stata TA

Prepared and delivered a mini-course in Stata to M.A. Economics students

History of Economic Thought

Graded essays


Professor Robert McMillan, 2012-2015

Professor Michael Smart, 2010-2011

Professor Daniel Trefler, 2010

2008-2009: Summer Researcher, Institute for Competitiveness & Prosperity, Toronto

Reviewed alternative methods for regulating greenhouse gases in Canada

Joshua Murphy

3

References Professor Robert McMillan (supervisor)




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

phone: 416-978-4190


Professor Kory Kroft




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

phone: 416-978-4355


Professor Eduardo Souza-Rodrigues




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

phone: 416-978-4349





Joshua Murphy

4


Air Pollution, Adult Mortality, and Optimal Environmental Regulation

(Job Market Paper)

This paper studies the optimal regulation of air quality in practice. I first develop a framework for weighing

regulation-induced changes in air quality and health against regulation costs, with the planner choosing an air

quality target to maximize societal welfare. I apply this framework to derive a structural equation for the

optimal level of power plant emissions of sulfur dioxide and oxides of nitrogen in the United States; existing

constraints on current policy eliminate the need to estimate several structural relationships separately. I show

that, under testable assumptions, estimates of the health benefits of similarly-implemented prior regulation are

sufficient for welfare analysis when monetized and linked with information about abatement costs. To estimate

the health benefits of pollution regulation, I focus on the Clean Air Interstate Rule, which was a first step in

requiring U.S. states contributing to poor air quality in nearby states to act as ‘good neighbors’ by drastically

cutting power plant emissions. Using comprehensive county-level mortality statistics along with this exogenous

variation in air quality, I find a strong positive relationship between the change in a county's mortality rate and

the change in its air pollution induced by the rule. In a complementary analysis of longitudinal mortality data

for large and repeated samples of the U.S. adult population, I confirm that the relationship is driven by

improved health among long-time residents, and not by compositional changes, such as in-migration of

healthier people to areas more strongly affected by the rule. My estimates imply that further cuts to power plant

emissions are necessary to maximize net benefits, and that the annual inefficiency costs of lax existing targets

amount to at least three quarters of a billion dollars.

The U.S. Clean Air Act of 1970 and the Health Effects of Air Pollution

A growing literature seeks to obtain causal estimates of the health effects of total suspended particulates (TSP)

by exploiting cross-county variation in regulatory effort created by the 1970 amendments to the U.S. Clean Air

Act. Relying in part on data thought no longer to exist, this paper assesses the validity of key assumptions that

have been universally adopted but not thoroughly examined in the literature. I find that one of the commonly-

used measurement approaches – a regression-discontinuity estimator – is invalid, while the other – a

difference-in-differences estimator – delivers inflated estimates of the effects of regulation on TSP

concentrations. The literature thus significantly understates the health benefits of reducing particulate

pollution.

Uros Petronijevic

Business Address Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Canada Phone: (647) 242-8116 Email: [email protected] Web: https://sites.google.com/site/upetronijevic/

Home Address 2558 Wickham Road Mississauga, ON L5M 5L3 Canada

Citizenship Canadian Languages English, Serbian Research Interests Public Economics

Economics of Education Labour Economics Applied Econometrics

Teaching Interests Public Economics

Economics of Education Labour Economics Quantitative Methods in Economics Intermediate Microeconomic Theory

Education

2010-present Ph.D., Economics, University of Toronto (expected July, 2016) Dissertation: Incentives and Productivity in the Economics of Education Committee: Robert McMillan (supervisor), Philip Oreopoulos, Aloysius Siow

2009-2010 M.A., Economics, University of Toronto

2005-2009 B.Sc., Financial Economics, University of Toronto

• Graduated with high distinction (CGPA 3.96) Research Papers

The Productivity Effects of School Competition and Education Accountability (Job Market Paper) Incentive Design in Education: An Empirical Analysis (with Hugh Macartney and Robert McMillan)

• Co-author presented at NBER Education Meeting (April, 2015), The Society of Labor Economists Annual Meeting (June 2015), Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics (July, 2015), 11th World Congress of the Econometric Society (August, 2015)


https://sites.google.com/site/upetronijevic/

Uros Petronijevic

2

Education Production and Incentives (with Hugh Macartney and Robert McMillan) • Invited presentation at NBER Public Economics Meetings (November, 2015)

The Consequences of Combining Apparently Unrelated Accountability Regimes (with Hugh Macartney and Robert McMillan)

Publications and Reports

Making College Worth It: A Review of the Returns to Higher Education (with Philip Oreopoulos). Future of Children, 23(1): 41 – 65. 2013.

• Presented at Future of Children Authors’ Conference (April, 2012) • Also available as NBER Working Paper No. 19053


2007-present Teaching Assistant, University of Toronto • Introductory Economics (Summer 2007, 2007-2008, 2009-2010, 2010-

2011, 2012-present) • Intermediate Microeconomic Theory (Summer 2009, 2010, 2011, 2011-

2012) • Quantitative Methods in Economics (Summer 2008, 2008-2009) • Information Technology Statistics (Winter 2011) • Master of Management and Professional Accounting Statistics (Summer

2009)

2013 Course Instructor, University of Toronto • Applied Econometrics • Taught winter 2013 semester of full-year course

2011-2013 Research Assistant, University of Toronto

• Supervisor: Robert McMillan • Duties included data preparation and analysis

2012-2013 Research Assistant, Duke University

• Supervisor: Hugh Macartney • Duties included data preparation and analysis

2008-2009 Facilitated Study Group Leader, University of Toronto

• Introductory Economics • Led discussions with 10 to 20 students about course material

Awards

University of Toronto Doctoral Completion Grant, 2015-2016 Ontario Graduate Scholarship, 2012-2013, 2014-2015 Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Doctoral Fellowship, 2013-2014 Canadian Labour Market and Skills Researcher Network Fellowship, 2012-2013

Uros Petronijevic

3

Edward B. Kernaghan Fellowship, 2012-2013 Maurice Cody Research Fellowship, 2011-2012 Royal Bank Graduate Fellowship in Public and Economic Policy, 2010-2011 Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada Joseph-Armand Bombardier Canada Graduate Scholarship, 2009-2010

Refereeing Experience Journal of Labor Economics References

Professor Robert McMillan Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Canada Phone: (416) 978-4190 Email: [email protected]

Professor Philip Oreopoulos Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Canada Phone: (416) 946-3776 Email: [email protected]

Professor Aloysius Siow Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Canada Phone: (416) 978-4139 Email: [email protected]




Uros Petronijevic

4


The Productivity Effects of School Competition and Education Accountability* (Job Market Paper)

The standard view among economists is that competition causes organizations to become more productive. The idea has been advocated in public education, though it is controversial, not least because public schools do not maximize profits. Existing work has typically found that competition among schools has small positive effects on student test scores, but we know little about the mechanisms by which schools improve; nor do we know how the effects of competition are likely to depend on the incentives created by pre-existing school accountability programs, which now operate widely. This paper is the first to show how modest school-level effects of increased competition can mask substantial differences in productivity gains across teachers, driven by the way competitive incentives interact with those stemming from a prevailing accountability scheme. I analyze how traditional public schools (TPSs) respond to charter school entry in North Carolina – a setting where all TPSs are held accountable under a sophisticated value-added accountability program. Rich school administrative data and a staggered roll-out of charter schools allow me to estimate the productivity effects of charter school competition on both TPSs and teachers while addressing several threats to identification due to endogenous charter school location and student sorting. In line with the prior literature, I find that TPSs improve when facing competition, becoming 0.12 standard deviations more productive when a charter school locates nearby. This school-level improvement is entirely driven by an improvement among the existing teaching staff: the same teacher is 0.13 standard deviations more productive after working in a TPS facing competition. Alongside these modest aggregate effects, I find substantial heterogeneity across teachers, the least-productive teachers prior to competition improving by 0.3 standard deviations while the performance of the most-productive teachers does not change. To shed light on how local conditions determine the nature of the response to competition, I use a simple model to show how the state accountability scheme – a program based on group incentives – creates a free-rider problem in which low-productivity teachers save on costly effort while enjoying success under the accountability program as a result of the efforts of their more productive colleagues. By creating an additional schooling option for students, competition turns school management’s attention toward ensuring adequate individual performance of all teachers, in turn leading to large productivity gains at the bottom of the teacher distribution. The results demonstrate how competitive forces can complement existing accountability programs, helping to counteract incentive design flaws in even the most sophisticated schemes.

Incentive Design in Education: An Empirical Analysis (with Hugh Macartney and Robert McMillan)

While many organizations use incentive schemes to elicit greater effort from their workforce, the mapping between incentives and effort is poorly understood in practice – a fact that hinders incentive design. To help fill this gap, we set out a new semi-parametric method for uncovering the relationship between incentive strength and effort. Focusing on an education context that provides exogenous variation in accountability incentives along with rich administrative data, we use a transparent differencing strategy to isolate the underlying effort response of teachers and schools. This response forms the basis of a counterfactual approach that allows us to recover the full distribution of outcomes under various accountability schemes, including those yet to be enacted. To illustrate the approach, we trace out performance frontiers on a comparable basis * In accordance with the North Carolina Education Research Data Center's Data Agreement, Hugh Macartney (Duke University) is listed as a coauthor on this paper.

Uros Petronijevic

5

for different accountability systems, starting with the most widespread – those setting fixed and value-added targets. Doing so reveals a clear tradeoff: higher average performance comes at the expense of more dispersed scores for a given type of scheme. Further, we show that the frontier associated with fixed targeting falls inside its value-added counterpart, and that a scheme with student-specific bonus payments can reduce the variance of scores compared to a regular value-added scheme. The analysis is relevant to the reform of existing education accountability systems, and has broader applicability to the problem of incentive design in the workplace.

Education Production and Incentives (with Hugh Macartney and Robert McMillan)

The substantial ‘value-added’ literature that seeks to measure the overall impact of teachers on student achievement does not distinguish between teacher effects that are invariant to prevailing incentives and those that are responsive to them. In contrast, we develop a reduced-form approach that, for the first time, allows us to separate out incentive-varying teacher effort from incentive-invariant teacher ability, and further, to explore whether the effects of effort and ability persist differentially. Our approach exploits exogenous variation in the incentive strength of a well-known federal accountability scheme, along with rich administrative data covering all public school students in North Carolina. These in hand, we first separately identify teacher effort and teacher ability to determine their relative magnitudes contemporaneously, finding that a one standard deviation increase in teacher ability is equivalent to 20 percent of a standard deviation increase in student test scores, while an analogous change in teacher effort accounts for between 3 and 5 percent of an increase. We then use prior incentive strength to reject the hypothesis that the persistence of teacher ability and effort is similar: persistence is differential, and in the case of effort, varies by grade. From a policy perspective, our results indicate that incentives matter when measuring teacher value-added. Our analysis also has implications for the cost effectiveness of sharpening incentives relative to altering the distribution of teacher ability across classrooms and schools.

Lisa Stockley

Business Address Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Web: http://individual.utoronto.ca/lisastockley

Home Address

2123-70 Cambridge Ave Toronto, ON M4K 2L5

Phone: (647) 213-1798 (mobile) Email: [email protected]

Citizenship Canadian Research Interests Labour Economics Development Economics Experimental Economics Behavioural Economics Teaching Interests Introductory Economics Labour Economics Development Economics Behavioural Economics Education 2009-present: Ph.D. Candidate, Economics, University of Toronto (Expected 2016)

Dissertation: Essays in Labour and Development Economics Committee: Gustavo J. Bobonis (supervisor), Marco Gonzalez-Navarro,

Tanjim Hossain

2008-2009: MA, Economics, University of Toronto 2003-2007: BA (Honours), Anthropology, University of Guelph Awards and Fellowships

Russell Sage Small Grant in Behavioral Economics, 2014 Mitacs Globalink Research Award, 2014

School of Graduate Studies Travel Grant, 2014 University of Toronto Research Fellowship, 2014 University of Toronto Doctoral Completion Award, 2014 Helliner Graduate Fellowship, 2012 & 2013 Canadian Labour Market and Skills Research Network Fellowship, 2012 University of Toronto Graduate Fellowship, 2009-2013

Lisa Stockley

2

Research Papers

Do Expectations Influence Labour Supply? Evidence from a Framed-field Experiment (Job Market Paper)

• Presented in 2015: Southern Ontario Behavioural Decision Research Annual Conference (Toronto) & Canadian Economics Association Conference (Toronto)

Union Wage Premia and Trade Barriers: Evidence from Mexico • Presented in 2012: Canadian Economics Association Conference (Calgary)

Cesarean Delivery and Child Health: Investigating a Causal Link Using Tort Law Reforms (with Alfia Karimova) (In Progress)

Professional Experience 2013: Course Instructor, University of Toronto

• Introduction to Economics • 1st Year Undergraduate


• Introduction to Economics (Rotman School of Management) • Development Economics (Department of Economics) • Labour Economics (Department of Economics) • Intermediate Microeconomics (Department of Economics)

2012: Department of Economics Award for Excellent in Teaching by a TA 2011-2014: Teaching Assistant Training Facilitator, University of Toronto 2012-2013: Research Assistant for Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA) in rural Brazil

• Harvesting Rainfall: Experimental Evidence from Residential Cistern Deployment in Northeast Brazil

• Research Supervisors: Marco Gonzalez-Navarro (U Toronto), Gustavo J. Bobonis (U Toronto), Simeon Nichter (UC San Diego) & Paul Gertler (UC Berkeley)


• Gustavo J. Bobonis (U Toronto), Norms of Reciprocity and the Market for Votes • Gustavo J. Bobonis (U Toronto), Marco Gonzalez-Navarro (U Toronto), Philip

Oreopolous (U Toronto) & Kjell G. Salvanes (NHH), Astronomics • Olav Sorenson (Yale), Valuing Education using school boundary changes

2006: Project Management, University of Guelph & Mojo Plantation, India

• A cost-benefit analysis of organic and fair-trade certification • Coordinated an interdisciplinary team of 20 students & local professionals • Collaborated with NGO Worldwide Association for Preservation and Restoration

of Ecological Diversity

Lisa Stockley

3

References

Professor Gustavo J. Bobonis Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 phone: (416) 946 - 5299 email: [email protected]

Professor Marco Gonzalez-Navarro Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources University of Toronto 121 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 phone: (416) 978 - 5692 email: [email protected]

Professor Tanjim Hossain Department of Management University of Toronto Mississauga 3359 Mississauga Road Mississauga, ON L5L 1C6 phone: (905) 569 - 4425 email: [email protected]

Professor James E. Pesando Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 phone: (416) 978 - 5519 email: [email protected]

Lisa Stockley

4


Do Expectations Influence Labour Supply? Evidence From A Framed Field Experiment

(Job Market Paper)

It is unclear if canonical models of labour supply can explain behaviour of real workers. A leading behavioural theory suggests that in addition to caring about level of income, workers evaluate income as gains or losses with respect to their ex ante expectations of that income. I test this behavioural theory of labour supply in a real effort, framed field experiment. I manipulate workers’ rational expectations of income and check if expectations influence effort. In contrast to existing laboratory evidence, when I manipulate expectations of income using a lottery-based payment contract, I find no evidence that expectations independently affect effort. When I manipulate expectations of income using unanticipated wage shocks, expectations do influence the labour supply of some individuals but in a way inconsistent with the behavioural model. Instead, individuals respond to differences between their expected and realized wages consistent with a canonical positive wage elasticity of labour supply.

Union Wage Premia and Trade Barriers: Evidence from Mexico

Mexico experienced a dramatic rise in wage inequality following trade liberalization in the 1980s. Many reasons have been put forth to explain this phenomenon, yet little is known about the role labour unions played to affect inequality during this period. I develop a theoretical model that links trade barriers to union premia. For each industry within a sector of employment, the industry-specific and sector-wide tariff rates have equal and opposite effects on union rents. In particular, changes to industry-specific trade barriers that make an industry more profitable allow unions to extract higher rents from firms. Meanwhile, changes in sector-wide trade barriers that make the entire sector of employment more profitable, increase the outside wage for union workers and thus decrease the premium that union workers earn over non-union workers. I test the model’s implications for 46 industries in the Mexican manufacturing sector using U.S. import tariff rates and The National Income and Household Expenditure Surveys of Mexico (ENIGH) for 5 years between 1989 and 1998. I find robust evidence of the model’s predictions of the effect of tariffs on union premia. A one standard deviation decline in the industry-specific U.S. import tariff results in a 4.8 percent increase in the union premium for the workers in that industry. A one standard deviation decline in the sector-wide U.S. import tariff results in a 4.3 percent decline in union premia across all industries within the sector. The magnitude of these effects suggests that changes in union premia as a result of changes in trade barriers throughout the late 1980s and 1990s did not significantly contribute to the rise in inequality in Mexico during this period.

Lei Tang Business Address Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street

Home Address 436 Riverstone Drive Oakville, ON L6H 7M4 Phone: (289) 291 1651

Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Phone: (289) 218 9819 Email: [email protected] Web: http://individual.utoronto.ca/leilei_tang Citizenship Chinese, Permanent Resident of Canada Languages English, Chinese Research Interests Education economics Field experiments Applied econometrics Teaching Interests Microeconomics Education economics Econometrics Education

2008-current PhD, Economics, University of Toronto (expected 2016) (Including one year maternity leave in 2011) Dissertation: Self-Control, Grading Frequency and Academic Performance Committee: Aloysius Siow (supervisor), Robert McMillan, Elizabeth Dhuey

2007-2008 MA-doctoral, Economics, University of Toronto 2003-2007 BA, Economics, McMaster University

Awards

CLSRN awards, 2013-2014, $6,875 SSHRC CGS - Doctoral Joseph-Armand Bombardier Scholarship, 2009-2012, $105,000 OGS, 2008-2009, $15,000 Graduate Admission Award, 2008-2009 SSHRC CGS – Master’s, 2007-2008, $13,833 University of Toronto Fellowship, 2007-2008 The Hurd Medal and R.C. Mcivor Medal, 2007 The Dr. Harry Lyman Hooker Scholarships, 2006 The University (Senate) Scholarship, 2005 Deans’ Honour List, 2004-2006


http://individual.utoronto.ca/leilei_tang

Lei Tang

2


Self-Control, Grading Frequency and Academic Performance (job market paper) Does Grade Incentives for Class Participation Improve Academic performance in Large

Classroom? (in progress) Heterogeneity in Belief Updating among Middle School, High School and University Students Scarth, W. and Tang, L. (2008). “An Evaluation of the Proposed Working Income Tax Benefit.”

Canadian Public Policy, 34(1), pp.25-36. Professional Experience

2010-2015: Principal Investigator

• Field Experiment in 2nd-year University classes in Canada • Lab Experiment in secondary schools, high schools and universities in China

2008-2015 Teaching Assistant, University of Toronto

• Microeconomic Theory for second year undergraduates (conducted tutorials) • Applied Econometrics for third year undergraduates (conducted tutorials) • Quantitative Methods for second year undergraduates • Introductory Economics for first year undergraduates

2006-2007 Research Assistant, McMaster University

• Assisted in testing efficiency-wage theory in Experimental Economics Lab • Evaluated the Working Income Tax Credit program

References Professor Aloysius Siow Professor Robert McMillan Department of Economics Department of Economics University of Toronto University of Toronto 150 St. George Street 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Phone: (416) 978 4139 Phone: (416) 978 4190 Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Professor Elizabeth Dhuey Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources Department of Management University of Toronto 121 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 2E8 Phone: (416) 978 2721 Email: [email protected]

Lei Tang

3


Self-Control, Grading Frequency and Academic Performance (Job Market Paper)

Some individuals with self-control problems are also aware that they lack self-control. They try to mitigate their self-control problems by imposing constraints on their own behavior. These constraints help people overcome self-control problems and improve their work/study performance. The contribution of this study is an eight-month-long field experiment in large classrooms that investigates (1) whether students with self-control problems are self-aware and try to control them by self-committing to a more frequent marking scheme for class participation, and (2) whether the frequent marking for class participation helps students to participate in class questions and improves their academic performance. The field experiments show that the answers to the above questions are positive.

Does Grade Incentives for Class Participation Improve Academic Performance in Large Classroom?

Absenteeism is common in higher education despite the important role of class attendance in academic success. Previous randomized field experiments find that mandatory attendance policy have little or no effect on absenteeism. This study investigates (1) whether providing grade incentives for class participation would help students, especially low-motivation students, to show up and actively participate in class questions, and (2) whether participating in the incentivized class improve exam grades more than the un-incentivized class. An eight-month field experiment in university classrooms shows that the answers to (1) and (2) are mixed and the effects are heterogeneous. Heterogeneity in Belief Updating among Middle School, High School and

University Students

A bandit problem is a dynamic decision-making task that represents a broad class of real world problems in which alternatives to be chosen are of uncertain reward rates or types. This study conducted an experiment on two-armed bandit problems among 460 middle school, high school and university students in China. The study investigates whether subjects use Bayesian rule in belief updating when making decisions under uncertainty. If not, how do they deviate from it? The study also tries to relate the deviations to observable characteristics, namely, education level and gender.

(Bill) Qiao Yang

Business Address



G80-150 St. George Street

Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

Fax: (416) 978-6713


Web: http://billqiaoyang.weebly.com/

Home Address

215-35 Bales Ave

Toronto, ON

M2N 7L7, Canada

Tel:(647)248-9196


Languages English, Mandarin

Research Interests Financial Econometrics and Bayesian Econometrics

Teaching Interests Quantitative Methods, Introductory Econometrics

Financial Econometrics, Bayesian Econometrics

Education

2011-present PhD, Economics, University of Toronto

Dissertation: Bayesian Nonparametric Methods in Financial Econometrics

Committee: John Maheu (co-supervisor), Martin Burda (co-supervisor),

Yuanyuan Wan

2010-2011 MA, Economics, University of Toronto

2006-2010 BA (Honours with Distinction), Applied Economics, Queen’s University

Awards

University of Toronto Doctoral Completion Award, 2015

Conference Travel Grants, Royal Economic Society, 2015

SGS Conference Grants, University of Toronto, 2015

Bayesian Seminar Grants, University of Melbourne, 2015

NSF Conference Grants, Washington University, St.Louis, 2015

Graduate Student Fellowship, University of Toronto, 2011-2015

Dean’s Honours List, Queen’s University, 2006-2009


“Stock Returns and Real Growth: A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach”

(job market paper)

Presented at Midwest Econometrics Group 2015, University of Toronto 2015,

International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics 2015.

(Bill) Qiao Yang

2

“An Infinite Hidden Markov Model for Short-term Interest Rates Application”

(with John Maheu)

Presented at DWAE 2014, NBER-NSF SBIES 2015, CEA 2015, Melbourne Bayesian

Econometrics Workshop 2015, RECA Rimini Bayesian Econometrics Workshop 2015,

CESG (Poster) 2015, University of Toronto.

“Modelling Oil Shocks and Real Economy using an Infinite Hidden Markov Model” (in progress)

(with John Maheu and Yong Song)



Econometrics for 2nd

and 3rd

year undergraduates

Introductory Economics for 1st year undergraduates

Financial Econometrics for graduates

Macro Economics Theory for graduates


Professor Martin Burda : 2013-2015

Professor John Maheu: 2012-2013, 2015

Professor Michelle Alexopoulos: 2010-2012

References

Professor John Maheu

DeGroote School of Business

University McMaster

1280 Main St West

Hamilton, ON, L8S 4M4

phone: (905) 525-9140


Professor Martin Burda




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

phone: (416) 978-4479

email: [email protected] Professor Yuanyuan Wan




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

phone: (416) 978-4964


(Bill) Qiao Yang

3


Bayesian Nonparametric Methods in Financial Econometrics

Stock Returns and Real Growth:

A Bayesian Nonparametric Approach (job market paper)

The study of the dynamic behavior between stock returns and real economic growth has a long history in

finance and macroeconomics. This paper investigates their linkage by proposing a Bayesian nonparametric

approach, an infinite hidden Markov model with vector autoregression (IHMM-VAR). In contrast to finite

Markov switching models, the IHMM-VAR extends Markov switching models with finite dimension into

infinite dimension. This flexible structure allows recurring regimes from the past as well as new states to

capture structural changes. Compared to existing models, the IHMM-VAR provides large improvements in

out-of-sample density forecasts. Secondly, mixed evidence of the predictive power of past stock returns for

real growth rates is found in contrast to the existing literature. Finally, this paper demonstrates both vector

autoregressive dynamics and Markov switching are essential building blocks to fully capture the dynamic

relationship of stock returns and real growth rates.

An Infinite Hidden Markov Model for Short-term Interest Rates

(with John Maheu)

The time-series dynamics of short-term interest rates are important as they are a key input into pricing models

of the term structure of interest rates. In this paper we extend popular discrete time short-rate models to

include Markov switching of infinite dimension. This is a Bayesian nonparametric model that allows for

changes in the unknown conditional distribution over time. Applied to weekly U.S. data we find significant

parameter change over time and strong evidence of non-Gaussian conditional distributions. Our new model

with a hierarchical prior provides significant improvements in density forecasts as well as point forecasts.

We find evidence of recurring regimes as well as structural breaks in the empirical application.

Modelling Oil Shocks and Real Economy

Using an Infinite Hidden Markov Model (in progress)

This paper uses a flexible Bayesian nonparametric approach to characterize the dynamic relationship

between oil price changes and U.S industrial production growths. This paper introduces the infinite hidden

Markov model which extends the popular Markov switching model with finite dimension to infinite

dimension. In contrast to finite Markov switching models, the new model has two advantages. One is that the

unbounded dimension of the transition matrix allows for recurring regimes from the past as well as new states

to capture structural changes. Another advantage is when new data displays new features which require a

new state; this flexible model can automatically introduce one and incorporate it into forecasts. Thus, the

dynamic behavior of oil price changes and real economic growths will be fully explored by this model.

Zhe Yuan

Business Address




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7


Home Address

633 Bay Street, Suite 1212

Toronto, ON M5G 2G4

Canada

Phone: +1 (647) 225-1965

Web: http://individual.utoronto.ca/zheyuan/

Citizenship Chinese and Canadian Permanent Resident

Languages English, Mandarin (native)

Research Interests Industrial Organization


Teaching Interests Industrial Organization

Microeconomics

Econometrics

Education

2016(Expected) PhD, Economics, University of Toronto (2010- )

Dissertation: Essays on Network Competition in the Airline Industry

Committee: Victor Aguirregabiria (supervisor), Andrew Ching

Mara Lederman, Yao Luo

2010 M.A., Economics, University of British Columbia (2009-2010)

2009 B.A., Economics (Honours), Peking University (2005-2009)

B.S., Statistics (Double Major), Peking University (2005-2009)

2008 Summer School, University of California at Berkeley

Awards

CRESSE Fellowship, 2015

Doctoral Completion Award, 2014

Travel Grant, Canadian Economics Association, 2013

University of Toronto Fellowship, 2010-2014

Distinguished Teaching Assistant Award, Peking University, 2009

National Scholarship, Chinese Ministry of Education, 2008

Guanghua Scholarship, Peking University, 2007

President Fund Fellowship, Peking University, 2007

Furong Scholarship, 2005

Zhe Yuan

2


Completed Paper

“Network Competition in the Airline Industry: A Framework for Empirical Policy Analysis,”

(Job Market Paper)

“Entry and Incumbent Response in the Airline Industry”

Work in Process

“Estimation of Discrete Choice Models based on Moment Inequalities: Using Bounds on the

Expected Value of Unobserved Payoffs,” with Victor Aguirregabiria and Yao Luo

“Administered Prices: Implications for the Chinese Cigarette Industry,” with Rongwei Chu and Yao

Luo

Conferences and Seminar Presentations

2012 University of Toronto

2013 Canadian Economics Association 47th Annual Conference, Montréal




2012-2015: Course Instructor, University of Toronto

ECO 380 Markets, Competition, and Strategy

ECO 210 Mathematical Methods for Economic Theory


Intermediate Microeconomics

Econometrics (PhD)

Quantitative Methods in Economics



Assisted Professor Victor Aguirregabiria

Assisted Professor Mara Lederman

http://www.chass.utoronto.ca/~murdockj/eco220/

Zhe Yuan

3

Software Matlab, STATA, LaTeX

Reference

Professor Victor Aguirregabiria




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

Phone: (416) 978-4358


Professor Andrew Ching




Toronto, ON M5S 3E6

Phone: (416) 946-0728


Professor Mara Lederman




Toronto, ON M5S 3E6

Phone: (416) 946-0196


Professor Yao Luo




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

Phone: (416) 946-5288


Zhe Yuan

4


Essays on Network Competition in the Airline Industry

Network Competition in the Airline Industry: A Framework for Empirical Policy Analysis

(Job Market Paper)

This paper studies network competition in the US airline industry. I propose a structural model of oligopoly

competition where the set of endogenous strategic decisions of an airline includes its network structure (i.e.,

the set of city-pairs where the airline operates nonstop flights), capacities (i.e., flight frequency and number

of seats) for every city-pair where they are active, and prices for nonstop and one-stop routes. In this paper,

I propose and implement simple methods for the estimation of the model and for the evaluation of

counterfactual experiments that avoid the computation of an equilibrium. The estimation of the model shows

that ignoring the endogenous network structure in this industry implies a substantial downward bias in the

estimates of marginal revenues and marginal cost of capacity. The estimated model is used to evaluate the

effects of the counterfactual entry of JetBlue into the segment between Atlanta and New York. I find that the

JetBlue entry into this city-pair (segment) would have substantial competition effects in other city-pairs, even

in those that that are not directly connected to Atlanta or New York.

Moment Inequality Estimation of Discrete Choice Models:

Using Bounds on Expected Unobserved Payoffs

with Victor Aguirregabiria (University of Toronto) and Yao Luo (University of Toronto)

We study moment inequality estimation of a general class of Random Utility Models where the unobserved

components enter additively in payoffs but they are completely unrestricted in terms of their correlation

across choice alternatives and individuals, and in the probability distribution. Under mild regularity

conditions, the expectation of the unobserved payoff associated to the optimal choice is a positive and finite

constant. We introduce an incidental parameter K>0 that is an upper bound to the value of this expectation,

and we obtain moment inequalities that include the structural payoff parameters and the constant K. We

provide conditions for point identification and for set identification of the structural parameters. Using an

estimator within the class of Chernozhukov, Hong, and Tamer (2007), we propose a Cross-Validation

method for the choice of the incidental parameter. We implement several Monte Carlo experiments to

illustrate the trade-offs in the choice of K and the performance of our method. In all the experiments, the

cross-validation function is convex in the parameter K: absolute bias declines and variance increases

monotonically with K; for low values of K, the bias-reduction-effect of increasing this parameter is stronger

than variance-increase-effect, and the opposite occurs for high values of K. We show that the estimation

under the restriction that the expectation of the unobserved (optimal) payoff is not zero (i.e., estimation with

K=0 ignoring selection term) implies substantial biases in the estimates of structural parameters.

Furthermore, our cross-validation method implies substantially smaller mean square errors than the

estimation that ignores the selection term.

Zhe Yuan

5

Entry and Incumbent Response in the Airline Industry

This paper studies empirically three different, but not mutually exclusive, hypotheses on entry deterrence that

have been proposed to explain the observed patterns of airline entry-exit decisions in city-pair markets. The

first hypothesis establishes that the dominant status of an airline in an airport can help to deter entry. The

second hypothesis is based on product proliferation: an incumbent airline may want to provide more

differentiated products (schedules) in order to lower the potential profitability of the competitors. The third

hypothesis establishes that a hub-and-spoke network can be an effective mechanism to deter entry in spoke

markets. I propose an approach to empirically distinguish the contribution of these hypotheses to explain

airlines' entry and exit decision in city-pair markets. Our results are based on new measures that result from

the merger of two databases from the US Department of Transportation: DB1B and T100 databases. I

estimate a structural game of entry with incomplete information, and use the estimated model to separate the

contributions of these three hypotheses. I find that the strategic behavior of incumbents benefit them by

reducing the entry probability of potential entrants. I found empirical evidence for all of the three hypotheses.

Shiny Zhang

Business Address




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

Home Address

6102-14 York Street

Toronto, ON M5J 0B1 Canada

Phone: (416) 829-0288 (cell)


Web : http://www.shinyzhang.com


Languages English, Mandarin

Research Interests Financial Economics, Applied Econometrics,

International Macroeconomics and Finance

Education

2011 - Ph.D., Economics, University of Toronto

Dissertation: Essays in Corporate Finance

Committee: Varouj Aivazian (supervisor), Peter Cziraki, Ling Cen

Doctoral Thesis: Three essays in financial economics

2011 M.A., Economics, Queen’s University

Supervisor: Wulin Suo

Major Essay: Factor Copula Models and Their Application in Studying the

Dependence of the Exchange Rate

2009 B.Sc. (Honours), Economics, University of Victoria (UVic)

Supervisor: David Giles

Thesis: An Introduction to Copula Functions and their Application in

Studying the Dependence of the international Equity Markets


Innovation Diversification and Firm Performance: Evidence from Mergers & Acquisitions

(Job Market Paper)

Academic presentations:

2015 Canadian Economics Association (CEA), Annual Meeting

2015 3rd Annual Doctoral Workshop in Applied Econometrics

2014 University of Toronto Department of Economics Seminar Series

The Allocation of Managerial Human Capital, Corporate Financing, and Firm Performance


2014 Canadian Economics Association (CEA), Annual Meeting

2014 Financial Management Association (FMA), Annual Meeting

2014 CIREQ PhD Students’ Conference

2014 Administrative Sciences Association of Canada (ASAC), Annual Meeting

2013 University of Toronto Department of Economics Seminar Series

Shiny Zhang

2

Effects of Extended Unemployment Benefits in Labor Dynamics (with Miquel Faig and Min

Zhang), Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Academic presentation:

2013 Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting

Reaping the Benefits from Global Value Chains (with Kevin Cheng, Sidra Rehman and Dulani

Seneviratne), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Asia and Pacific Regional Economic

Outlook 2015 and IMF 2015 Working Paper No. 15/204


2014 IMF seminar series

Awards

Ontario Graduate Scholarships, 2015-2016

SSHRC Joseph-Armand Bombardier CGS Doctoral Scholarships, 2012-2015

University of Toronto Fellowships, 2014-2015

The American Finance Association (AFA) Student Travel Grant, 2015

The Department of Economics Award for Excellence in Teaching by Teaching Assistants, 2014

Travel Grants from CEA, ASAC, University of Toronto, 2012 & 2014

Young Scholar Event Grants from Institute for New Economic Thinking Conference, 2014


Ontario Graduate Scholarships, 2011-2012


SSHRC CGS Master’s Scholarship, $17,500, 2009-2010

Ken Avio Medal for the best Honours Economics Thesis from UVic, spring 2009

Various President’s Scholarships Faculty Scholarship from UVic, 2007-2008

Teaching Experience

2014 Course Instructor, University of Toronto Mississauga

Financial Economics II (Corporate Finance)

Teaching Evaluations – By Departmental Requirements: 4.55/5

2011 - Teaching Assistant (TA), University of Toronto

Head TA: Undergraduate-level Introductory Economics

Graduate- and Undergraduate-level Financial Economics

Graduate- and Undergraduate-level Econometrics/Financial Econometrics

Graduate- and Undergraduate-level Empirical Financial Economics

Managerial Economics

2009 - 2010 Teaching Assistant, Queen’s University

Canadian Tax Policy

Introductory Microeconomics


2008 - Research Assistant (RA), University of Toronto and University of Victoria

2008 - Chair of Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) Session at 2015 CEA

Shiny Zhang

3

2015 McKinsey Asia-Pacific Insight Program (Three-Day Workshop)

2014 Ph.D. intern & Projects Officer, International Monetary Fund (IMF)

2010 - 2011: University Graduate Development Program, Empire Life Insurance Company

Conferences and Invited Seminar Presentations

2015 University of Toronto, Seminar Series

Canadian Economics Association (CEA), Annual Meeting

2014 International Monetary Fund (IMF), Seminar Series

Canadian Economics Association (CEA), Annual Meeting

Financial Management Association (FMA), Annual Meeting

CIREQ PhD Students’ Conference

Administrative Sciences Association of Canada (ASAC), Annual Meeting

2013 University of Toronto, Seminar Series

Midwest Macroeconomics Meetings

2011 Administrative Sciences Association of Canada (ASAC), Annual Meeting

2009 University of Victoria, Seminar Series

Other Certifications, Membership and Training

2015 Selected into and Completed THE500 – Teaching in Higher Education1

2014 University of Toronto Teaching Fundamentals Certificate

2011 Passed CFA Level II Exam

2011 Associate, Life Management Institute (ALMI)

2011 Project Management for Non-Project Manager

2011 MITACS Foundations of Project Management

2009 Passed Canadian Securities Course Exam

2008- Golden Key International Honour Society

Computational Skills: STATA, LaTex, Eview, R, MatLab, SAS, Cytoscape, Mathematica, VBA

1 Restricted to senior PhD students and post-doctoral fellows

Shiny Zhang

4

References

Varouj A. Aivazian (Co-Supervisor)

Professor of Finance


Department of Economics (St. George)

Department of Economics (Mississauga)



Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

Canada

phone: (905) 828-5302


Peter Cziraki (Co-Supervisor)

Assistant Professor




Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

Canada

phone: (416) 978-3298

email: peter.cziraki@ utoronto.ca

Ling Cen

Assistant Professor


Department of Management (Scarborough)



Toronto, ON M5S 3G7

Canada

phone: (416) 208-2688


Shiny Zhang

5


Innovation Diversification and Firm Performance:

Evidence from Mergers & Acquisitions (Job Market Paper)

This paper constructs a novel measure, the ubiquity index, that reflects both the depth and the breadth of a

firm's expertise in innovation compared to its peers. Using this measure, I show that diversifying innovation

capacity through M&As is costly for firms but beneficial for managers. In particular, I show that expanding

a firm's innovation portfolio through M&As leads to lower abnormal returns, but higher CEO compensation

and lower CEO turnover. This is true both for related diversification (i.e., increasing the firm's depth in fields

with existing innovations) and unrelated diversification (i.e., expanding its innovative breath to more fields)

of innovation. A one-standard-deviation increase in the ubiquity index is associated with a 6.5% decrease in

one-day cumulative abnormal returns, a 2.5% decrease in one-year buy-and-hold abnormal returns, and a

3\% decrease in one-year abnormal accounting returns. Despite this lower M&A performance, CEOs appear

to fare better in acquisitions with innovation diversification. Increases in the ubiquity index through

acquisitions are associated with higher CEO compensation and lower CEO turnover. The main results on

returns hold after using a fixed-effects model in a quasi-natural experiment. Overall, these findings suggest

that innovation diversification through M&As reduces firm value, but benefits managers.

The Allocation of Managerial Human Capital, Corporate Financing, and

Firm Performance

This paper explores how well general versus specific managerial skills are allocated across firms and

industries. In general, a manager with specific skills creates greater job value to the firm that requires these

specific skills than does a manager with only general (i.e., transferable) skills. I provide empirical evidence

that the differentiation between general and specific skills matters. I find that the match between a firm and

its internally promoted executive, who brings firm-specific skills to a firm requiring more specific skills,

increases firm value more than the mismatch does. I also find that the firm-level skill match is more important

to a firm than its industry-level skill match between the firm and its average executives. However, the

industry-level skill match is more important to the firm than the firm-level skill match when considering the

match between the firm and its CEO/CFO. My research suggests that an internal promotion is not necessarily

better than an external hire and a firm should choose to promote internally or hire externally based on its

reliance on specific versus general skills.

Xin Zhao

Business Address Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Phone: (416) 505-4310

Home Address 64 Kendal Avenue Toronto, ON M5R 1L9 Canada Email: [email protected] Web: https://sites.google.com/site/xinzhaoecon/

Citizenship Chinese Languages Mandarin, English Research Interests Microeconomic Theory

Political Economy Teaching Interests Microeconomics

Game Theory Political Economy

Education


Dissertation: Essays on Microeconomic Theory Committee: Martin J. Osborne (supervisor), Xianwen Shi, Colin Stewart

2009-2010 MA, Economics, University of British Columbia

2005-2009 BA (Honors), Economics, University of International Business and Economics

Working Papers

[1] “Information Acquisition in Heterogeneous Committees” (Job market paper)

[2] “Auction Design by an Informed Seller: The Optimality of Reserve Price Signaling” (Under review)

[3] “How to Persuade a Group: Simultaneously or Sequentially?”

[4] “The Power of Transparency: Audits, Government Performance, and the Wellbeing of

Citizens,” with Gustavo J. Bobonis, Luis R. Cámara Fuertes, and Rainer Schwabe (Draft available upon request)

Pre-doctoral Research Published

[1] “FDI and Environmental Regulation: Pollution Haven or a Race to the Top?” with Baomin Dong and Jiong Gong, Journal of Regulatory Economics 41(2): 216−237, 2012.

[2] “International R&D Networks,” with Baomin Dong, Jin Zhang, and Lei Zu, Review of

International Economics 19(2): 325−340, 2011.

Xin Zhao

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[3] “International Environmental Agreement Formation and Trade,” with Baomin Dong, Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting and Economics 16(3): 339−356, 2009.


2010-2016 Teaching Assistant, University of Toronto

• Graduate Microeconomic Theory (1 time): Tutorials, Grading, Office Hours • Undergraduate Microeconomic Theory (7 times): Tutorials, Grading, Office Hours • Undergraduate Game Theory (3 times): Tutorials, Grading, Office Hours • Undergraduate International Trade (2 times): Tutorials, Grading • Undergraduate Econometrics (1 time): Tutorials, Grading

2011-2014 Research Assistant, University of Toronto

• Assisted Professor Gustavo J. Bononis for his paper requested for revision, AER, (2014.05-11)

• Assisted Professors Martin J. Osborne and Colin Stewart for their joint project (2014.03-08)

• Assisted Professor Xianwen Shi (2012.05-09 & 2013.05-09) • Assisted Professor Colin Stewart (2011.05-09)

2014 Referee, Canadian Journal of Economics


2015 Canadian Economic Theory Conference, CEA Annual Conference, Stony Brook Game Theory Conference

2014 14th Annual Trans-Atlantic Doctoral Conference, Midwest Economic Theory Conference (Spring)

2009 International Trade Workshop at Hong Kong Baptist University

Seminar Presentations

2015 UIBE, Brownbag seminar at the University of Hong Kong, Renmin University of China, Fudan University, JXUFE, University of Toronto

2012-2014 Theory Workshop at the University of Toronto Awards

Doctoral Completion Award, University of Toronto, 2014-2016 University Fellowship, University of Toronto, 2010-2014 Economics Student Conference Travel Grant, University of Toronto, 2014 SGS Conference Grant, University of Toronto, 2014 International Partial Tuition Waiver Scholarship, University of British Columbia, 2009 Beijing City-wide Honors Graduate, 2009 First-Class Scholarship, UIBE, 2005-2008 National Second Prize, China Undergraduate Mathematical Contest in Modeling, 2007 Second Prize, Beijing Undergraduate Mathematics Competition, 2006

Xin Zhao

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References

Professor Martin J. Osborne Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Phone: (416) 978-5094 Email: [email protected]

Professor Xianwen Shi Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Phone: (416) 978-5105 Email: [email protected]

Professor Colin Stewart Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Phone: (416) 946-3519 Email: [email protected]

Professor Gustavo J. Bobonis Department of Economics University of Toronto 150 St. George Street Toronto, ON M5S 3G7 Phone: (416) 946-5299 Email: [email protected]

Xin Zhao

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Information Acquisition in Heterogeneous Committees (Job Market Paper)

This paper studies how the composition of a decision-making committee and the voting rule it uses affect the incentives for its members to acquire information (and thus the quality of its collective decision). Keeping the voting rule unchanged, a more polarized committee acquires more information in equilibrium. If a committee designer can choose both the committee members and the voting rule to maximize her expected payoff from the collective decision, she will form a heterogeneous committee that adopts a unanimous rule. In this committee, one member moderately biased toward one decision serves as the decisive voter, and all other members have extreme preferences opposed to that of the decisive voter and serve mainly as information providers. The preference of the decisive member is not perfectly aligned with that of the designer.

Auction Design by an Informed Seller: The Optimality of Reserve Price Signaling

This paper studies mechanism design by a seller privately informed of the quality of an indivisible object. The privacy of the seller's information matters for mechanism design: selecting a mechanism that maximizes the seller's profit when her information is public is not incentive compatible for the seller when her information is private, as a lower-quality seller has an incentive to mimic a higher-quality seller. I show that reserve prices are the least costly device to separate higher-quality sellers from lower-quality ones. In equilibria that maximize the expected profit of every type of the seller among all separating equilibria, the lowest-quality seller adopts her public-information optimal mechanism, and each higher-quality seller adopts a mechanism that differs from her public-information optimal mechanism only in that the reserve prices are higher.

How to Persuade a Group: Simultaneously or Sequentially? How should a privately informed persuader optimally persuade a group of listeners if the listeners can imperfectly verify persuader's information with costs? Should he bring all the listeners together and persuade them simultaneously (public persuasion) or privately communicate with them sequentially (sequential persuasion)? The answer depends on the verification costs of the listeners. Public persuasion outperforms sequential persuasion when it is not very costly for the listeners to verify the persuader's information. The opposite can be true, if verifying the persuader's information is very costly. In sequential persuasion, it is optimal for the persuader to first approach the listener that is harder to persuade. For both persuasion modes, in their persuader-optimal equilibria, the persuader pools extreme private information, while “truthfully reveals” his private information if it is moderate. An equilibrium with a finer partition of the persuader's signal space may not outperform one with a coarser partition from the persuader's perspective.

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