November 16 – November 30

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CONTENTS

Foreword (General Observations).………………………………………......3

Americas……………………………………………………………………….5

Arms Control and Disarmament……………………………………………11

China and East Asia………………………………………………………….16

Europe…………………………………………………………………….......20

Global Terrorism…………………………………………………………….22

Middle East & West Asia……………………………………………………24

South Asia (I)…………………………………………………………………31

South Asia (II)………………………………………………………………..35

United Nations…………..................................................................................42

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Area Briefs: 16-30 November 2019

General Observations

Pakistan

• On November 29, the Supreme Court of Pakistan granted a six-month conditional extension to the term of Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, after initially blocking a three-year extension of his tenure.

• On November 21, Prime Minister Imran Khan held a telephonic conversation with US President Donald Trump. Khan apprised President Trump of the current situation in Kashmir, stressing that the US President must continue his efforts for the facilitation of a peaceful solution of the Jammu & Kashmir dispute.

• On November 18, Pakistan conducted a successful training launch of the surface-to-surface short-range ballistic missile Shaheen-I. Shaheen-I is capable of delivering all types of warheads up to a range of 650 kilometres.

International

• On November 20, India successfully test-fired two short-range nuclear capable ballistic missiles Prithvi-II from its Integrated Test Range in the Bay of Bengal off the coast of Odisha.

• Citing India’s Consul-General in New York, Sandeep Chakravorty, the Middle East Eye reported on November 26 that India plans to build Israeli-type settlements for the return of the Hindu population to Kashmir.

• During a trip to Afghanistan on November 28, US President, Donald Trump spent more than two-and-a-half hours on the ground. President Trump said he had reopened peace negotiations with the Taliban, less than three months after calling off talks aimed at ending the 18-year war in Afghanistan. He also held a brief meeting with Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani.

• On November 26, the House Judiciary Committee decided to take over the impeachment probe of President Donald Trump, scheduling a hearing for next week as they push closer to a possible vote on actual charges of high crimes and misdemeanours. Earlier on November 25 a federal judge ruled that top presidential aides must comply with

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congressional subpoenas, labeling as “fiction” the Trump administration’s arguments to the contrary.

• On November 27, President Donald Trump signed into law congressional legislation backing protesters in Hong Kong despite severe objections from Beijing. Earlier on November 20, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), the top legislature of China, condemned the passing of Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 by the US Senate.

• On November 29, Iraqi protesters celebrated the imminent departure of Iraqi Prime Minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi who announced his resignation after the country’s Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani urged lawmakers to reconsider their support for a government shaken by weeks of deadly anti-establishment unrest.

• On November 20, Israel said its warplanes carried out a “very intense” attack against Iranian forces and Syrian army targets in Syria. Earlier on November 18, US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo announced a major reversal of the US’ longstanding policy on Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, rejecting a 1978 State Department legal opinion that deemed the settlements “inconsistent with international law.”

• On November 26, the Russian Military displayed the latest Avangard hypersonic boost-glide vehicle to the US, aiming at keeping the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), viable and effective.

• On November 29, at least two people were killed as a result of a stabbing incident at London Bridge, London. Police shot dead the suspect who was later identified as 28-year old Usman Khan.

• On November 19, North Korea said the US must end its joint exercises with South Korea “once and for all” to facilitate dialogue with Pyongyang.

---Amina Afzal

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AMERICAS

Domestic

• On November 27, leading American politicians expressed their outrage at immigration officials for creating a fake university to entrap and deport hundreds of foreign students.

In a tweet, US presidential candidate, Elizabeth Warren said, “This is cruel and appalling. These students simply dreamed of getting the high-quality higher education America can offer. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deceived and entrapped them just to deport them.” Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, another Democrat, also criticised the ICE scheme in a tweet and said, “Now ICE is setting up fake universities to trap students. Yet we were called radical for opposing it.” She urged lawmakers to oppose such “mass incarceration” schemes. The operation during 2017 and 2019 offered students a chance to enrol at the so-called University of Farmington to maintain their visa status, get a degree and training permits that would allow them to stay in the US. More than 600 students, mostly Indians, enrolled at the university, which was created in January 2016 by ICE officials. It was registered with the Department of Licensing and Regulatory Affairs as an educational institution at Farmington Hills, Michigan. Authorities even set up a website for the university, with details of its history of admission and fees. The web-site showed that the university would charge between $2,500 and $10,000 per year for a graduate degree, which was noticeably low by American standards, attracting hundreds of students.

• On November 26, the House Judiciary Committee decided to take over the impeachment probe of President Donald Trump, scheduling a hearing for next week as they push closer to a possible vote on actual charges of high crimes and misdemeanours.

• On November 25, judge Ketanji Jackson of the US appeals court ruled that Donald Trump’s top aides must comply with subpoenas to appear in the impeachment investigation against the President.

The Judiciary panel scheduled the hearing as the Intelligence Committee released two last transcripts from its depositions, including from a White House budget official who detailed concerns among colleagues as Trump ordered them, through intermediaries, to put a hold on military aid to Ukraine. Trump ordered the hold as he was pressuring Ukraine’s President to investigate Democrats, the issue at the heart of the impeachment probe. Multiple government witnesses testified in impeachment hearings held by the Intelligence panel in November 2019 that Trump directed his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani to take the lead on Ukraine policy and that Giuliani pushed an irregular diplomatic channel. The Intelligence committee is wrapping up the investigative phase of the probe and preparing its report for the next. Committee Chairman Adam Schiff has said the report could be released soon after the house returns from its

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Thanksgiving break. The initial judiciary hearing on December 4, 2019, the day after lawmakers return, will feature legal experts who will examine questions of constitutional grounds as the panel decides whether to write articles of impeachment against Trump and if so, what those articles will be. Judiciary Chairman Jerrold Nadler said that his panels hearing will explore the framework put in place to respond to serious allegations of impeachable misconduct. Democrats are aiming for a final House vote by Christmas, which would set the stage for a likely Senate trial in January 2020.

Earlier, in a case involving former White House counsel Don McGahn, who was subpoenaed in May 2019 by the House Judiciary Committee, judge Jackson ruled that Administration officials cannot claim absolute immunity from testifying based on their closeness to the US leader. While Jackson ruled specifically on McGahn’s case, she said it had broad application to all current and former presidential aides. She wrote in her decision, “Presidents are not kings. No one, not even the head of the Executive branch, is above the law.” She said Congress has the power to subpoena any of the President’s advisers, whether they are involved in domestic policies or sensitive national security issues. She also wrote, “It goes without saying that the law applies to former White House Counsel Don McGahn, just as it does to other current and former senior-level White House officials.” That ruling could open a path for the House Intelligence Committee, which is building a case for impeachment charges against Trump to force testimony from three top witnesses: former national security adviser John Bolton, White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. All are believed to have direct knowledge of Trump’s alleged demand that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky open investigations into Trump’s Democratic rival Joe Biden in exchange for a high-profile summit and much-needed military aid.

• On November 24, Richard Spencer, the chief of the US Navy, criticised Donald Trump after being sacked in a dispute over an elite SEAL commando whose demotion for misconduct was reversed by the President.

Spencer was ousted as Navy Secretary, a civilian position, in a case that has fuelled reports of anger among US military leadership over Trump’s interference in discipline cases. In a letter published by US media, Spencer said, “I no longer share the same understanding with the Commander in Chief who appointed me, in regards to the key principles of good order and discipline. I hereby acknowledge my termination as United States Secretary of the Navy.” The dispute centres on the fate of Navy SEAL Edward Gallagher who was accused of war crimes in a high-profile case but was found guilty of a lesser offense. On November 15, 2019, Trump, the commander-in-chief of the US military, reversed the demotion handed down to Gallagher. Trump said that Gallagher had been “treated very badly” by the Navy, and that Spencer had been asked to resign over the issue and over his alleged failure to address budget overruns. The President said Gallagher would not be expelled from the elite SEAL force and that “Eddie will retire peacefully with all of the honours that he has earned.” Defence Secretary Mark Esper said he had asked for Spencer’s resignation “after losing trust and confidence in him regarding his

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lack of candour over conversations with the White House. Esper said he was “deeply troubled by this conduct.”

• On November 24, Michael Bloomberg confirmed that he is running for president, joining the crowded field of Democrats seeking to take on President Donald Trump.

Billionaire Bloomberg announced on his website, “I am running for president to defeat Donald Trump and rebuild America,” as a $30 million Bloomberg ad campaign hit US airwaves. The announcement ended weeks of speculation that the former New York mayor was preparing for a run at the White House. He had prepared the groundwork for a possible bid for the Democratic nomination in recent weeks by registering as a candidate in primary voting states and filing paperwork with the Federal Election Commission. Bloomberg also said, “We cannot afford four more years of President Trump’s reckless and unethical actions. He represents an existential threat to our country and our values. If he wins another term in office, we may never recover from the damage.” With a personal fortune of $50 billion, Bloomberg’s candidacy will likely shake up the open race, with 17 candidates already vying to be the Democratic nominee to take on Trump in 2020. According to national polls, former vice president Joe Biden leads the race ahead of left-wingers Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, with moderate Pete Buttigieg in fourth place.

• On November 22, former CIA officer, Jerry Chun Shing Lee, who may have devastated US intelligence collection in China by giving up its network of informants to Beijing agents was sentenced to 19 years in prison.

Lee, a naturalised US citizen who worked for the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) from 1997 to 2004, was arrested in January 2018 for illegally possessing classified US defence information, which prosecutors alleged he turned over to Chinese intelligence agents. His indictment said he moved to Hong Kong in 2010 and begun accepting payments from Chinese agents who asked him for sensitive information on the CIA. But in May 2019, Lee pleaded guilty to one charge of conspiracy to deliver national defence information to aid a foreign government, while insisting the government never proved he gave the Chinese any information or accepted $840,000 from the Chinese, as alleged. Timothy Slater, assistant director in the FBI’s Washington field office said, “Lee betrayed his own country for greed and put his former colleagues at risk. The seriousness of his betrayal and crime is demonstrated by today’s sentencing.” The case has driven much speculation about what really lies beneath, because it took the government six years from first investigating Lee to arresting him.

International

• On November 27, President Donald Trump signed into law congressional legislation backing protesters in Hong Kong despite severe objections from Beijing.

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The legislation, approved unanimously by the US Senate and by all but one lawmaker in the House of Representatives on November 20, 2019, requires the State Department to certify, at least annually, that Hong Kong retains enough autonomy to justify favourable US trading terms that have helped it maintain its position as a world financial centre. The law also threatens sanctions for human rights violations. Congress passed a second bill, which Trump also signed, banning the export to the Hong Kong police of crowd-control munitions, such as teargas, pepper spray, rubber bullets and stun guns. Trump said in a statement, “I signed these bills out of respect for President Xi (Jinping), China, and the people of Hong Kong. They are being enacted in the hope that Leaders and Representatives of China and Hong Kong will be able to amicably settle their differences leading to long term peace and prosperity for all.” China has denounced the legislation as gross interference in its affairs and a violation of international law. After the Senate passed the legislation, Beijing vowed counter-measures to safeguard its sovereignty and security.

• On November 25, US President Donald Trump told his nation that he is once again working on a peace agreement to bring his troops back from Afghanistan.

During a telephonic conversation with Fox News, Trump said, “You know we are pulling way down in Afghanistan. We are working on an agreement now with the Taliban. Let us see what happens.” Traditionally, American presidents use the long Thanksgiving weekend to share good news with their nation. But for President Trump, it is more than a holiday greeting. He committed himself to recalling American troops from across the global during his 2016 election campaign and has withdrawn thousands from Iraq, Syria, and even Afghanistan. This time he wants to bring back all 13,000 American troops that are still in Afghanistan. In September 2019, President Trump came close to achieving this target when he invited Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and senior Taliban leaders to the Camp David presidential near Washington to sign a peace agreement. But the agreement, finalised after almost two years of continuous US-Taliban talks in Doha, Qatar, collapsed when the rebels attacked Afghan and American troops near Kabul and killed dozens, including a US soldier.

• On November 23, Vice President Mike Pence visited Iraq to reassure Iraqi Kurds of US support following President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw troops from northern Syria, which drew criticism that Washington had betrayed its Kurdish allies in Syria.

Pence’s trip included a visit with Nechirvan Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan region in Iraq, and also a phone call with Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi to discuss the unrest and protests over corruption. Pence made two stops during his short trip, which was previously unannounced for security reasons. Traveling on a military cargo plane, he landed first at Al Asad Air Base northwest of Baghdad and held a telephonic conversation with Abdul Mahdi. Talking to reporters, Pence said, “We spoke about the unrest that has been taking place in recent weeks here in Iraq. He assured me that they were working to avoid violence or the kind of oppression we see taking place even as we speak in Iran. He pledged to me that they would work

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to protect and respect peaceful protesters as ... part of the democratic process here in Iraq.” Pence said he reiterated Trumps commitment to an independent and sovereign Iraq. He said, “We continue to be concerned about the malign influence of Iran across Iraq.”

• On November 23, head of a US congressional panel, Congressman Brad Sherman, asked the Trump Administration to persuade India to allow US diplomats to visit and review the situation in occupied Kashmir.

Sherman, who made this request in a letter to the US State Department, heads a House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia. In October 2019, the panel held a hearing on human rights in Asia, which focused almost entirely on the situation in the India-occupied Kashmir. The participants expressed grave concern on gross human rights violations in occupied Kashmir and questioned New Delhi’s decision to revoke the valley’s special status by merging it with India. In his letter to Assistant Secretary Alice Wells, who heads the State Department’s Bureau for South and Central Asian Affairs, Sherman urged her to expedite efforts for sending US diplomats to Kashmir. He wrote, “One reason I am so concerned about the situation in Kashmir is because there is a lack of reliable information coming from the region.” Congressman Sherman noted Indian officials’ claim that they were not allowing US diplomats to visit Kashmir due to the security situation on the ground. But he pointed out that the Indian government allowed “certain, select European Union members of Parliament” to visit Kashmir in October 2019.

• On November 18, US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo announced a major reversal of the US’ longstanding policy on Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, rejecting a 1978 State Department legal opinion that deemed the settlements “inconsistent with international law.”

The announcement, which breaks with international law and consensus, is the latest in a series of hard-line, pro-Israeli moves that are likely to fuel tensions between the Trump Administration and Palestinians and widen the divide between the Trump Administration and traditional US allies in Europe. Citing President Ronald Reagan’s 1981 assessment that the settlements were not “inherently illegal,” Pompeo said, “After carefully studying all sides of the legal debate... the establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not, per se, inconsistent with international law.” Pompeo said the US government is “expressing no view on the legal status of any individual settlement” or “addressing or prejudging the ultimate status of the West Bank.” He said the conclusion was “based on the unique facts, history and circumstances presented by the establishment of civilian settlements in the West Bank.” The European Union criticised the new US position, with diplomats noting President Donald Trump’s desire to woo evangelical voters and saying the move reflects a US contempt for international law. International law holds that an occupying power cannot build civilian settlements on occupied territories. Under international law, the West Bank is seen as occupied territory, a conclusion Israel disputes.

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Latin America

• On November 29, Mexican President, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador warned that he would not allow cross-border armed US operations against drug cartels in the country.

President Obrador said, “We are not going to allow armed people to act in our territory. Armed foreigners cannot intervene in our territory. We will not allow that.” Earlier, On November 26, 2019, US President Donald Trump said he planned to designate the Mexican cartels as terrorist organisations, after earlier saying he would help Mexico tackle the drug gangs. Trump called for a “war” on the drug cartels in early November 2019 when nine women and children from an American Mormon community in northern Mexico were killed in a hail of gunfire. In Mexico, scourged by spiralling drug gang violence, the comments have been taken as amounting to a threat of armed cross-border operations. Obrador said he considered any such operations unlikely, saying there was “great cooperation” between the neighbours. He said, “In the unlikely case that a decision is taken that we consider affects our sovereignty, then we will act within the framework of international law, but I see it as unlikely.”

• On November 24, Bolivia’s interim President, Jeanine Anez signed off on new elections, in a key step towards ending weeks of unrest.

At least 32 people have been killed in violence that erupted after a disputed election on October 20, 2019 with blockades causing severe fuel and food shortages in La Paz and other cities. Congress gave the green light for a new vote without Evo Morales, Bolivia’s first indigenous president who had been seeking a fourth term after ruling the country for nearly 14 years. Morales claimed victory in the latest elections that opposition groups said had been rigged, triggering weeks of violent street protests. He fled to Mexico, where he was granted political asylum, following his November 10, 2019 resignation after losing the support of the military.

---Muhammad Shoaib

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ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT

• On November 27, the twenty-fourth Session of the Conference of the States Parties (CSP-24) to the Chemical Weapons Convention and adopted two decisions to amend for the first time the Annex to the Chemicals to the Convention.

The Director-General of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), H.E. Mr Fernando Arias, stated, “This is the first time in its history that the Chemical Weapons Convention’s Annex on Chemicals has been updated. This is an important development that demonstrates the adaptability of the Convention to changing threats while enhancing the OPCW’s ability to remain vigilant, agile, and fit for purpose.” The Annex on Chemicals includes three Schedules that list toxic chemicals and their precursors. According to the OPCW, the first decision was jointly proposed by Canada, the Netherlands and the US, while the second was proposed by Russia. Both decisions call for technical changes to Schedule 1 of the Annex on Chemicals to the CWC.

In a related development on November 29, 2019, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicated that Pakistan had been re-elected as a member of the OPCW Executive Council for another two-year term (2020-2021). Pakistan’s candidature was endorsed by the Conference of States Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) which was held in The Hague from 25-29 November 2019.

• On November 26, the Russian Military displayed the latest Avangard hypersonic boost-glide vehicle to the US, aiming at keeping the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), viable and effective.

Russia’s Defence Ministry noted, “Under the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, a US inspection group was shown the Avangard missile system with the hypersonic boost-glide vehicle on the territory of Russia on November 24-26, 2019.” The New START limits launcher and warhead numbers fielded by Russia and the US.

Meanwhile, on November 26, 2019, Russian Ministry of Defence also noted that Avangard would enter into service in December 2019. The Ministry noted, “This missile system is set to go on combat alert in December 2019.” The weapon system had entered serial production in 2018. The Avangard is a hypersonic glide vehicle, designed to be carried as a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) by the intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The Avangard is capable of flying at a speed of Mach 20 in the dense layers of the atmosphere, manoeuvring by its flight path and its altitude and breaching any anti-missile defence. The weapon system can deliver both conventional and nuclear warheads.

• On November 25, Turkey began trials of its recently acquired Russian S-400 air defence system, in defiance of US’ calls for not proceeding with the system’s operationalisation.

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Turkey’s news agency, Ihlas Haber Ajansi, released a footage of the tests. The trials were aimed at training Turkish Military with operation of S-400 systems. The footage showed that at least one F-16 fighter jet performs low and high fly-bys over the compound, while S-400 system tracks it. The trial took place at a military facility outside Ankara. Turkey began receiving S-400 systems from Russia in July 2019. These systems are not yet operational. However, Turkey’s procurement of S-400 systems met with consternation by its NATO allies including the US. The NATO and the US maintain that the S-400 systems are not compatible with their defences and poses a threat to Lockheed Martin’s F-35 stealth fighter jets. Therefore, the US has also suspended Ankara from the F-35 stealth fighter jet programme.

Following the trials of S-400 on November 26, 2019, Turkey’s Presidential spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, noted that Turkey would not integrate Russian S-400 missile systems into the NATO security or air defence systems. Kalin noted, “It will remain an independent defence system on its own. Concerns on this issue can be eased.” However, the US expressed concerns over trials of the S-400 systems on November 26, 2019. US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, “Yes, it is concerning.” Pompeo noted that the US wanted Turkey to move away from full operation of the S-400 system. He also indicated that both the US and Turkey were in negotiations to resolve the issue.

• On November 22, US officials stated that NATO warships successfully engaged live and simulated ballistic and cruise missile threats during its Exercise ‘Formidable Shield’ in May 2019.

Speaking to the American Society of Naval Engineers, NATO’s Navy representative Kevin Gillis said the warships communicated through NATO’s Air Command and Control System, allowing multiple assets to share ballistic missile tracking data. During the exercise, a French frigate hit a supersonic target with an Aster 15 missile, while the Royal Canadian Navy tracked and hit another supersonic target with an Evolved Sea Sparrow missile. The exercise also marked the first key test of a new NATO command and control structure, including the first at-sea deployment of Naples, Italy-based Commander Task Group 64, which runs the integrated air and missile defence mission for US Naval Forces Europe-Africa.

In a related development on November 19, 2019, NATO arranged the first formal tour for a group of journalists and ambassadors to Romania from 20 NATO member states to the Aegis Ashore land-based defence system at the town of Deveselu. Romanian Defence Minister, Nicolae Ciuca said the tour was an initiative in “transparency” to demonstrate that the facility has “a purely defensive nature.” US Commander John Fitzpatrick said, “The only thing that we have with respect to capabilities is the ability to launch SM-3 Block IB interceptors against ballistic missiles inbound from Iran.” This visit was arranged owing to the ongoing contention between the alliance and Russia since it began operations in early 2016. Russia claims that the facility, along with a similar NATO base in Poland, are meant to undermine Moscow’s nuclear deterrent.

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Fitzpatrick noted, “There is no other capability that this site has right now, and it would take extensive changes, industrial-scale changes, to make any difference.”

• On November 22, Iran’s military completed an air and missile defence exercise in the country’s central region, designated “Guardians of Velayat Sky-98.”

Commander of the Iranian Army’s Air Defence Force, Brigadier General Alireza Sabahi Fard noted, “The massive manoeuvres in central Iran has fulfilled its objectives and managed to eliminate all pre-determined targets.” Fard said that all targets were shot down by domestic air defence systems. According to media reports, Iran tested its Khordad 15, Talash, and Mersad air and missile defence systems during the drills. The Talash and Mersad systems respectively shot down high altitude and simulated cruise missile targets, while the Khordad 15 completed an unspecified test. The Khordad 15 system is capable of tracing targets, including fighter jets and drones, 150 kilometres away and intercepting them at a range of 120 kilometres. The Talash system is capable of intercepting medium to high-altitude targets within 150 kilometres. Mersad is also a medium-altitude surface-to-air missile system with electronic warfare capabilities.

• On November 21, Cornel Feruta, Acting Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called on Iran to return to compliance with its July 2015 nuclear agreement, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

• On November 18, the IAEA announced that Iran breached another commitment in its nuclear agreement by accumulating slightly more than 130 tonnes of heavy water.

In his statement to the Agency’s Board of Governors, Cornel Feruta said Iran should cooperate fully with the Agency in order to resolve outstanding issues. Feruta also indicated that he had reported to the Board on November 7, 2019, that the Agency detected natural uranium particles of anthropogenic origin at a location in Iran not declared to the IAEA. He said, “We have continued our interactions with Iran since then, but have not received any additional information and the matter remains unresolved.” He urged Iran to work with the IAEA to resolve the matter promptly.

In a related development on November 18, 2019, the IAEA noted that Iran accumulated slightly more than 130 tonnes of heavy water, breaching another commitment of the JCPOA. The IAEA stated that Iran informed the Agency on November 16, 2019, that “its stock of heavy water had exceeded 130 metric tonnes.” On November 17, 2019, the IAEA “verified that the Heavy Water Production Plant (HWPP) was in operation and that Iran’s stock of heavy water was 131.5 metric tonnes.”

• On November 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that scientists who lost their lives on August 8, 2019, in a mysterious nuclear explosion in northwestern Russia had been testing an “unparalleled” weapon.

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President Putin said, “We are talking about the most advanced and unparalleled technical ideas and solutions, about weapons designed to ensure Russia’s sovereignty and security for decades to come.” He added, “The very fact of possessing these unique technologies is the most important reliable guarantee of peace on the planet today.” He made these remarks while addressing the victims’ relatives at a televised state awards ceremony in the Kremlin. Putin, however, did not provide details about the weapon. On August 8, 2019, a blast took place at a naval missile test facility in Nyonoksa in Arkhangelsk region in which five scientists lost their lives and led to a brief radiation spike in the region.

• On November 20, India successfully test-fired two short-range nuclear capable ballistic missiles Prithvi-II from its Integrated Test Range in the Bay of Bengal off the coast of Odisha.

The two launches were conducted at night as part of its annual training cycle to test the combat readiness of the Indian Army’s missile forces. Indian government officials noted that night-time trials “met all parameters,” matching the performance of the Prithvi-II’s previous night-time test in June 2019. With a strike-range of 350 kilometres, the Prithvi-II is a single-stage liquid-fuelled surface-to-surface ballistic missile, capable of carrying a 500 to 1,000 kilogramme conventional or nuclear warhead. The missile entered into service in 2003.

• On November 18, Pakistan conducted the successful training launch of its surface to surface short-range ballistic missile Shaheen-I.

According to a statement released by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), “The launch was conducted as part of a training exercise aimed at testing the operational readiness of Army Strategic Forces Command.” The statement also noted that troops displayed a high standard of proficiency in operating the potent weapon system, “ensuring Pakistan’s credible minimum deterrence.” Shaheen-I ballistic missile is capable of delivering all types of warheads up to a range of 650 kilometres.

• On November 18, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced that the US was cancelling one of four sanctions waivers that had allowed foreign companies to work with Iran’s civilian nuclear programme without US penalties.

Mike Pompeo said that the US would no longer waive sanctions related to Iran’s Fordow nuclear plant after Tehran resumed uranium enrichment at the underground site. The waiver would be eliminated on December 15, 2019. The waivers are among the last remaining components of the 2015 nuclear deal the Trump Administration withdrew from in May 2018. In response to the US’ withdrawal from the nuclear agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and reinstatement of sanctions, Iran has taken four steps to reduce its compliance with the JCPOA.

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On November 19, 2019, France and Russia expressed concerns over US’ decision to end a sanctions waiver related to Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility. France’s Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Agnes von der Muhll noted, “We regret the decision of the United States, following Iran’s resumption of enrichment on the Fordow site, to terminate an exemption that would facilitate the conduct of civilian projects on this site.” Von der Muhll noted that France was making efforts to bring both the US and Iran on the negotiating table. Russian Foreign Ministry noted that US’ decision was in violation of its international commitments.

• On November 16, the Director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), Sergei Naryshkin, said that the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) would most likely cease to exist in February 2021.

During a roundtable conference at the Baltic State Technical University, Sergei Naryshkin said, “The Intermediate Range Nuclear Force Treaty’s sad plight is most likely in store for New START, which will expire in February 2021.” He noted that Russia had been taking resolute steps to save the arms control architecture, and US’ actions were undermining the international stability. He stressed, “In the current alarming situation we are obliged to step up efforts to strengthen our country’s defences. ‘If you want peace, prepare for war,’ the saying goes.”

--- Moiz Khan

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CHINA, EAST ASIA & PACIFIC

China

● On November 25, China rejected the US’ criticism of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) accusing Washington of having “evil intentions” of creating a rift between Beijing and Islamabad.

The comments came in response to the November 21, 2019, remarks by US’ Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia, Alice Wells who said that CPEC would increase Pakistan’s debt burden and benefit only China. In response, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Geng Shuang said, “No matter what the US says or does or how it tries to spoil the CPEC development, we will work together with Pakistan to develop CPEC and advance our all-weather strategic cooperative partnership to bring more benefits to Pakistani people and deliver more benefits to the region and beyond.” Geng added, “The US side, in total disregard of facts, has been talking all about the fabricated ‘debt issue’ with the true aim to disrupt CPEC development and sow discord in China-Pakistan relations with malicious calculations.” Rejecting the claims that China was creating a debt trap for Pakistan, Geng assured that more than 80 percent of the CPEC projects were being funded by direct investment or grants from China.

● On November 25, Australian Prime Minister, Scott Morrison said he is disturbed by allegations that the Chinese government attempted getting an agent elected to the Australian Parliament.

An article published in Nine Network newspapers on November 24, 2019, accused the Chinese government of offering 1 million Australian dollars for a Chinese-Australian citizen to contest a federal seat. Morrison said Australia was fully aware of the threats it faces from other countries and hence, it has “strengthened the laws” and “increased the resources (for intelligence agencies).” In response, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang dismissed allegations of espionage in Australia, insisting China doesn’t interfere in internal matters of other countries. Geng said that some Australian politicians and institutions have reached “a state of hysteria” by propagating bizarre stories of “Chinese espionage in Australia” which are based on lies.

● On November 23, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov.

On the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G20) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, Wang met with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and said that mutual efforts between the two countries have led to rapid

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development and enhanced cooperation at local levels. Wang assured that China is willing to work with Russia to plan high-level exchange of visits and further strengthen the China-Russia relations. Moreover, Wang urged the two sides to further strengthen coordination within multilateral frameworks such as BRICS, and safeguard multilateral trading system. Lavrov reciprocated views expressed by Wang and assured Russia’s willingness to improve business ties with China and deepen cooperation in various fields.

● On November 22, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China wants to reach an interim trade deal with the US but it will not shy away from retaliation if necessary.

Commenting on the prospects of an interim deal between the US and China, Xi expressed the desire to work for a phase one agreement on the basis of mutual respect and said, “When necessary we will fight back, but we have been working actively to try not to have a trade war. We did not initiate this trade war and this is not something we want.”

In a related development on November 22, 2019, President Xi met with former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, and expressed hope that Kissinger continues to promote of Sino-US relations. Xi appreciated the efforts Kissinger devoted to advancing the development of Sino-US relations over the decades, and called on the two countries to improve communication on strategic issues. Highlighting the importance of US-China relations, Kissinger urged the two sides to strengthen strategic communication, work to find ways to resolve differences, and increase cooperation in various fields.

● On November 22, China’s Military warned the US to stop what it called provocation over the South China Sea, after the US Navy deployed a littoral combat ship for a freedom of navigation operation in the disputed waters for the first time.

The US’ latest freedom of navigation operation came as China’s first home-grown aircraft carrier, the Type 001A, headed to waters near Hainan Island in the South China Sea, for sea trials. The latest move by the US Navy prompted disapproval from the Chinese Military, with the Southern Theatre Command saying that “The US has kept sending naval vessels to stir up trouble in the South China Sea under the pretext of freedom of navigation.”

● On November 20, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), the top legislature of China, condemned the passing of Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act of 2019 by the US Senate.

The US Senate’s bill on Human Rights in Hong Kong, passed on November 19, 2019, was met with strong opposition from China. According to a statement issued by the NPC committee, the move “grossly interfered in China’s internal affairs.” The statement added that a series of violent crimes in Hong Kong have damaged the social order, over the past five months, which has undermined Hong Kong’s prosperity and challenged the “one country, two systems”

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principle. The statement said that criminals in Hong Kong have increased their violent activities which is “closely related to the US intervention in Hong Kong affairs and China’s internal affairs” because instead of condemning violent crimes in Hong Kong, the US Senate supported violent criminals under the pretense of “human rights” and “democracy,” fully exposing the US Congress’ evil intentions to oppose China and create turmoil in Hong Kong. The statement further added, “The affairs of Hong Kong are China’s internal affairs and must be handled within the framework of the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China and the Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.”

● On November 18, China’s Minister of National Defence, Wei Fenghe held talks with US Secretary of Defence, Mark Esper. The two sides agreed to increase mutual trust in order to stabilise the China-US relationship.

Chinese Defence Ministry Spokesperson, Wu Qian said the meeting is “positive and constructive”, as both sides came to an agreement that “the China-US military relationship is an important part of bilateral relations, and developing a stable bilateral military relationship would benefit not only China and the United States, but also regional and world peace and stability.” During the meeting, Wei also reiterated China’s firm stance on the issues of Taiwan, South China Sea, and Hong Kong.

North Korea

● On November 30, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) blasted Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as an “imbecile and political dwarf” after Abe suggested the country fired ballistic missiles in their most recent weapons test.

Comments from North Korea’s state media come after the country successfully tested a “super-large” rocket launcher on November 28, 2019. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) announced that North Korea launched two short-range projectiles from what is presumed to be a large-caliber Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) on the country’s east coast. Abe described the test as a ballistic missile launch and said it poses a threat to Japan and the international community. In response, KCNA stated, “It can be said that Abe is the only one idiot in the world and the most stupid man ever known in history as he fails to distinguish a missile from multiple launch rocket system while seeing the photo-accompanied report.” The statement added that “Abe may see what a real ballistic missile is in the not distant future and under his nose … Abe is none other than a perfect imbecile and a political dwarf without parallel in the world.”

● On November 19, North Korea said the US must end its joint exercises with South Korea “once and for all” to facilitate dialogue with Pyongyang.

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Since North Korea has long protested the (US-South Korea) joint drills, which it condemns as preparations for invasion, the United States and South Korea, on November 17, 2019, said they would delay annual joint aerial exercises planned for this month in an act of “goodwill.” According to KCNA news agency, Kim Yong Chol, a senior North Korean official who formerly led talks with the US, said the postponement was irrelevant and demanded that “the US quit the drill or stop it once and for all.” He added that the North had “no intention” to sit down with the US and would not return to nuclear talks “before the complete and irrevocable withdrawal of its hostile policy.”

South Korea

● On November 22, South Korea announced its intention to extend the intelligence-sharing pact, General Security of Military Agreement (GSOMIA), with Japan.

South Korea announced it would “conditionally” suspend the expiry of the intelligence-sharing pact with Japan that it had earlier said it would withdraw from amid a quarrel over history and trade. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, while expressing his gladness with South Korea’s decision, “stressed the importance of cooperation between Japan and South Korea, and Japan, South Korea and the United States.”

● On November 19, South Korean and US’ officials broke off talks aimed at settling the cost burden for Seoul of hosting the US Military.

The talks between the two countries collapsed as each side suggested the other was not prepared to come to a reasonable compromise on sharing the costs for hosting 28,500 US troops. South Korea’s Foreign Ministry said that “Our position is that it should be within the mutually acceptable Special Measures Agreement (SMA) framework that has been agreed upon by South Korea and the US for the past 28 years.” The top US negotiator, James DeHart, said the Americans cut short the talks to “give the Korean side some time to reconsider and I hope to put forward new proposals that would enable both sides to work towards a mutually acceptable agreement in the spirit of our great alliance.”

---Fareeha Shamim

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EUROPE

• On November 29, Charles Michel, the newly appointed European Council President, said that Europe would now become more “assertive” on the world stage.

Former Belgian Prime Minister, Charles Michel replaced Donald Tusk as President of the European Council on November 29, 2019. Michel praised Tusk for maintaining European unity over the past five years. He said that he would have his “own style” and explained that he would be “open for dialogue” and remained “committed to building bridges”. Michel stressed that Europe must project a self-confident image to the rest of the world and do more for European defence and security. He also highlighted the planned transition towards a greener economy as an important priority for the next years.

• On November 29 a man and a woman were killed as a result of a stabbing incident at London Bridge, London. Police shot dead the suspect who was later identified as 28-year old Usman Khan.

The attacker is a British national of Pakistani origin. British authorities described it as an incident of terrorism. At the time of assault, the attacker had strapped a fake bomb to his body. The British authorities confirmed that the attacker had previously been convicted of a terrorism-related offense in January 2012. He was released from prison “on license” in December 2018. Following the incident, British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson said he had “long argued that it is a mistake to allow serious and violent criminals to come out of prison early.”

• On November 29, at least three people were wounded after a stabbing incident at one of the main shopping streets in The Hague, the Netherlands.

According to police they were still searching for a suspect and it was not clear whether the incident was an act of terrorism.

• According to CNN on November 28, European Space Agency (ESA) received a 14.4 billion-euro ($15.9 billion) funding boost from its 22 member states as it seeks to launch new missions.

The Agency, which concluded a two-day ministerial meeting in Seville, Spain on November 28, 2019, agreed on a budget of 12.5 billion euros for the next three years or 14.4 billion euros over five years. The Agency’s budget is still much smaller than NASA’s, which was estimated to be $19.4 billion for 2019.

• On November 28, Italian authorities said they raided the homes of 19 people who allegedly wanted to create an “openly pro-Nazi, xenophobic and anti-Semitic” party.

Police found firearms and propaganda celebrating Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini during the series of raids across the country. The suspects are accused of using social media platforms to

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recruit others and setting up a closed chat group under the name of “Militia”. Authorities say they are closely monitoring “extreme right-wing local militants”.

• According to the BBC on November 27, Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) accused Prime Minister Boris Johnson of being “dangerous and unfit for office” as she launched the SNP’s election manifesto.

The SNP leader said that a vote for her party on December 12, 2019 would be a vote to “escape Brexit and put Scotland’s future in Scotland’s hands.” She also claimed that Boris Johnson’s proposed Brexit deal would be a “nightmare” for Scotland. The SNP won 35 seats in the general election in 2017, making it the third biggest party in the UK Parliament.

• According to Reuters on November 24, Prime Minister Boris Johnson promised 23.5 billion pounds ($30.15 billion) of tax cuts and extra spending.

Faced with a general election on December 12, 2019, the ruling Conservative party made public an election manifesto titled “Get Brexit Done, Unleash Britain’s Potential” that promised more public sector spending and no further extensions to the departure from the European Union. The manifesto also promised to employ another 50,000 nurses. Meanwhile, the opposition Labour Party also published its election manifesto, pledging a “radical” programme to transform the UK including Brexit renegotiation within three months and creating a million new jobs.

• On November 26, French President, Emmanuel Macron said that at least 13 French soldiers were killed after two helicopters full of French troops collided during a counter terrorism operation in Mali.

President Macron expressed “deep sadness” over the incident and sent his condolences to the soldiers’ families. Almost 4500 French troops have been deployed in Mali since 2013 after militants took over country’s northern parts.

• On November 23, British Prince Andrew was ordered to move his private office out of Buckingham Palace over his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, a convicted sex offender who allegedly ran an international sex-trafficking operation.

Queen Elizabeth II authorised Andrew’s eviction from the palace. Prince Andrew is also accused of sexually assaulting a 17-year old girl who was sex-trafficked to Andrew by Epstein. Andrew has come under intense criticism after he, in a BBC Newsnight interview, defended his friendship with Epstein. Responding to criticism, Andrew regretted his “ill-judged” association with Jeffrey Epstein.

---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

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GLOBAL TERRORISM

• On November 27, an anti-terrorism court in Dhaka sentenced seven people to death in connection with the July 1, 2016, terrorist attack on a popular cafe in Dhaka.

Judge Md Majibur Rahman of the Anti-Terrorism Special Tribunal of Dhaka ordered the deaths by hanging. Judge Rahman said, “These people wanted to wreak havoc in the society and wanted to establish a Jihadist state. As their activities threatened public safety, they will be executed by hanging until they are pronounced dead.” However, Mizanur Rahman, another accused, was acquitted as allegations brought against him could not be proved. In July 2018, the Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC) unit of Dhaka Metropolitan Police submitted a charge-sheet against eight suspects from the banned armed group Jamaatul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB). On July 1, 2016, a few gunmen attacked Holey Artisan Bakery in Dhaka’s Gulshan area leaving 22 people killed including 17 foreigners.

• On November 22, Simon Crowther, Legal Advisor at Amnesty International regretted Egypt’s appointed to co-lead the review of the UN’s Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy with Spain.

Simon Crowther noted, “This move puts Egypt - a country with a long and egregious record of human rights abuses - in a perfect position to delete the provisions protecting an individual’s human rights from the UN’s counter-terrorism strategy. This would have catastrophic consequences.” He also accused Egypt of weakening human rights protections across the board at the UN level, including through repeated attempts to dilute and distort the ability of UN Human Rights experts to do their jobs. He indicated that the Amnesty International would issue a report about Egypt’s misuse of counter-terrorism legislation in the coming days.

• On November 20, the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace released the 7th edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), providing a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism over the last 50 years.

The 2019 GTI covers the period from the beginning of 1970 to the end of 2018. The institute collected for the GTI from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland. The GTD contains over 170,000 terrorist incidents. According to the GTI, conflict remains a primary driver of terrorist activity. In 2018, 95% of deaths from terrorism occurred in countries where violent conflict was occurring. The report noted that Afghanistan had the largest deterioration, recording 7,379 deaths from terrorism, an increase of 59% from the prior year, and is now at the bottom of the index. The report noted that South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 93% of all deaths from terrorism between 2002 to 2018.

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• On November 19, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres highlighted measures the UN was taking in strengthening ties with the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in the area of counter-terrorism.

While addressing a high-level meeting involving the SCO, Guterres said, “I am particularly proud of our engagement with SCO on the United Nations Joint Plan of Action for the Implementation of the Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy in Central Asia – the first regional initiative of its kind.” According to the UN, the Joint Plan of Action aims at strengthening the capacities of Central Asian Member States to enhance border security, prevent violent extremism conducive to terrorism, and foster dialogue with religious leaders. To effectively meet these challenges, the Secretary-General noted that increased information sharing on the nexus between terrorism, transnational organised crime and drug trafficking was essential. He said, “I am confident that in joining our efforts, the United Nations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation can make a positive contribution to the lives of people in Eurasia, strengthening regional cooperation at all levels.”

--- Moiz Khan

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MIDDLE EAST & WEST ASIA

Bahrain

• On November 25, Qatar and Kuwait told the US they would join a US-led naval coalition in the Gulf that was established in response to a series of attacks on oil tankers.

The coalition, based out of Bahrain and known as the International Maritime Security Construct (IMSC), was formed after a series of attacks earlier in 2019 heightened the risk of disruption to Gulf oil exports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. The US blamed the attacks on Iran, which Tehran denied. US Army Colonel John Conklin, chief of staff of the coalition, said, “Qatar and Kuwait have already told us they are going to join, so it is just a matter of time.” He also said they were expected to provide personnel and patrol boats. Conklin gave these remarks during a trip to the Middle East by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley. According to him the US was also in talks with Canada about joining the initiative. So far, the coalition has received a lukewarm response with Albania, Australia, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the UK joining.

Iran

• According to IRNA on November 27, Iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif held talks in Tehran with a Taliban delegation led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, and discussed efforts to bring a negotiated end to Afghanistan’s war.

During the meeting, Zarif expressed Iran’s willingness to support dialogue between all Afghan parties with the participation of the Afghan government.

• On November 25, supporters of Iran’s government gathered in central Tehran for a massive rally to condemn days of rioting that the country blames on its foreign enemies.

On November 15, 2019, Iran raised the price of petrol by up to 200%, triggering nationwide protests in a country whose economy has been battered by US sanctions. Officials say the demonstrations turned violent because of the intervention of “thugs” backed by royalists and Iran’s enemies the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. According to the Amnesty International, over 100 demonstrators were believed to have been killed in Iran when the security apparatus was ordered to stamp out protests against the recent fuel price hike. The UN also voiced alarm over the reports of casualties and cautioned both sides against use of force.

Major General Hossein Salami, head of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also addressed the pro-government rally. He said, “This war is over… You have defeated the power of the arrogance. The enemy has collapsed and today it is disappointed because of the glory of your presence. The coup de grace has been delivered.” While issuing a warning to the

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US and its allies Britain, Israel and Saudi Arabia, Gen Salami said, “Revolutionary people, you have received a strong slap in the face. If you cross our red lines, we will destroy you.” Ahead of the rally, Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the “interference of foreign countries” in the street violence. Spokesman, Abbas Mousavi said, “We recommend they watch the rallies taking place these days in our country so they realise who the real people are in our country.”

Iraq

• On November 29, Iraqi Prime Minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi announced his resignation after the country’s Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani urged lawmakers to reconsider their support for a government shaken by weeks of deadly anti-establishment unrest.

A statement signed by Abdul Mahdi said, “In response to this (the cleric’s) call, and in order to facilitate it as quickly as possible, I will present to parliament a demand (to accept) my resignation from the leadership of the current government.” The statement did not mention when he would resign. Parliament is to convene an emergency session on December 1, 2019, to discuss the crisis. Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani had earlier urged the parliament to consider withdrawing its support for Abdul Mahdi’s government to contain spiralling violence. Iraqi protesters celebrated the imminent departure of Abdul Mahdi, but said they would not stop their demonstrations until the whole of the political class was removed.

• On November 28, Iraqi security forces shot dead at least 28 protesters after demonstrators stormed and torched an Iranian consulate building in the southern Iraqi city of Najaf.

• On November 27, at least sis protesters were killed by security forces who fired live rounds in Baghdad and southern Iraq amid ongoing violence and days of sit-ins.

The demonstrators removed the Iranian flag from the building and replaced it with an Iraqi one. Iranian staff were not harmed and escaped the building from the back door and authorities imposed a curfew in Najaf. The incident marked an escalation in the demonstrations that have raged in Baghdad and across southern Iraq since October 1, 2019. The protesters accuse the government of being corrupt and complain of poor public services and high unemployment. They are also decrying growing Iranian influence in Iraqi state affairs. So far, the authorities have been unyielding in response to the unrest, shooting dead hundreds of demonstrators with live ammunition and tear gas, while floating proposals for political reform that the protesters dismiss as trivial and cosmetic. Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi has so far rejected calls to resign, after meetings with senior politicians that were attended by the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force. In a statement that suggested more violence was to come, the military commander of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), an umbrella group of paramilitary groups whose most powerful factions are close to Iran, suggested the overnight unrest in Najaf was a threat to Shia clergy based in the city. PMF Commander, Abu Mahdi al-

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Muhandis said in a statement that “the paramilitary fighters would use full force against anyone who threatened Iraq’s most senior Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. He also said, “We will cut the hand of anyone trying to get near al-Sistani.” Ayatollah Sistani himself has appeared to back the protesters since the unrest erupted, calling on politicians to meet the popular demands for reform. At least 350 people have been killed and thousands wounded in what has become the largest grassroots protest movement in Iraq’s modern history.

Israel

• On November 21, following his indictment, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lashed out at investigators and vowed to fight on in the face of an attempted coup.

Netanyahu’s main opponent, the centrist Blue and White party, called on him to immediately resign from all his Cabinet posts, citing a Supreme Court ruling that says indicted ministers cannot continue to hold office. Netanyahu also serves as Minister of Health, Labour and Diaspora Affairs, as well as acting Minister of Agriculture. He is not legally required to step down as Prime Minister, but Netanyahu faces heavy pressure to do so, and it is unclear whether an indicted politician could be given the mandate to form a new government. Netanyahu has already failed to form a majority coalition of 61 seats in the 120-seat Knesset after two hard-fought elections in 2019. Netanyahu was indicted on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust stemming from three long-running corruption cases. He has denied any wrongdoing and accused the media, courts and law enforcement of waging a witch hunt against him. The corruption charges will weigh heavily on Netanyahu’s Likud party in future elections, but it is unclear if any senior member has the support or willingness to replace him.

Palestine

• On November 19, the US faced strong international and Palestinian over its decision to no longer consider Israeli settlements illegal, while Israel’s Premier, Benjamin Netanyahu cheered on the “historic” move.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had said that after legal consultation, Washington had concluded the establishment of settlements was “not, per se, inconsistent with international law,” saying he trusted the Israeli courts to decide. The UN and EU stressed the decision would not change the reality that the settlements were illegal, while the Arab League condemned the unilateral move by Pompeo. The Arab League called it an “extremely adverse development”. The Palestinian Authority, which considers the US biased and has rejected the Trump Administration as a mediator if peace talks are ever revived, called for an emergency meeting of the body. The only two Arab states to have signed peace treaties with Israel, Egypt and Jordan also strongly criticised the US policy shift, with Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi

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warning of “dangerous consequences”. Palestinian chief negotiator, Saeb Erekat said they would take a series of measures to oppose it, including calling for a UN Security Council debate.

Saudi Arabia

• On November 28, at least 128 Houthi rebels detained in Saudi Arabia were released and flown to Yemen.

The development came as efforts to end the five-year conflict gain momentum. Prisoners arrived in Sanaa on three International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) planes and were met at the airport by rebel commanders and some family members. In a related development on November 26, 2019, the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen said it has released 200 Houthi rebels to advance a UN-brokered deal aimed at ending the war in the country. Coalition spokesman Col. Turki al-Malki said in a statement that the move was aimed at paving the way for a larger and long-delayed prisoner swap agreed upon in December 2018. Rebel leader Mohammed Ali al-Houthi welcomed the move, calling on the coalition to release all war prisoners. The prisoners released had been captured in various parts of Yemen between 2015 and 2019. Yemeni government officials said the release of prisoners was a trust building measure aimed at encouraging the Houthis to negotiate with the coalition to end the war. The ICRC also noted in its statement that it “sees the release as a positive step and hopes that it will spur further releases and repatriations of conflict-related detainees.” Riyadh and its allies intervened in the Yemen war in March 2015 to back the internationally recognised government, shortly after the Iran-backed Houthi rebels captured Sanaa.

• On November 20, Saudi King Salman bin Abulaziz urged Iran to abandon an expansionist ideology that has “harmed” its own people, following violent street protests in the country.

A wave of demonstrations erupted in the country on November 15, 2019, after an announcement that petrol prices would be raised by as much as 200 % with immediate effect. While addressing the consultative Shura Council, King Salman said, “We hope the Iranian regime chooses the side of wisdom and realises there is no way to overcome the international position that rejects its practices, without abandoning its expansionist and destructive thinking that has harmed its own people.” He also said that the “Kingdom has suffered from the policies and practices of the Iranian regime and its proxies,” reiterating that Riyadh does not seek war but is “ready to defend its people”.

Syria

• On November 26, at least 17 people were killed and 20 others wounded in a car bomb attack in the Turkish-controlled region of northern Syria.

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According to the Turkish Defence Ministry, the attack took place in the Tal Halaf village west of the city of Ras al-Ayn, which is now controlled by the Turkish Military after its October 2019 offensive. The Ministry blamed the attack on the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara accuses of being the Syrian offshoot of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) that has waged an insurgency against Turkey since 1984. The Turkish Defence Ministry said in a statement, “The PKK/YPG terror group continues its car bombings aimed at civilians. The child murderers this time detonated a car bomb in Tal Halaf village west of Ras al-Ayn, killing 17 people and wounding more than 20.” The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed the attack; however, it gave a lower toll, saying 11 people including at least three civilians were killed in the attack. In another development on November 16, 2019, at least 19 people, including 13 civilians, were killed in a car bomb attack in the Turkish-controlled town of Al-Bab in northern Syria.

• On November 25, Director General of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), Fernando Arias defended a report into an alleged chlorine attack in Syria, despite allegations of a cover-up by a whistle-blower.

Wikileaks published an email from a member of the team that investigated the attack in the town of Douma in April 2018, which accused the body of altering the original findings of investigators to make evidence of a chemical attack seem more conclusive. Russia and its allies have seized on the email and an earlier document which both question the conclusion by the OPCW in March 2019 that chlorine was used in Douma. The row added to tensions at the OPCW’s annual meeting in The Hague over a new team that will shortly name culprits for attacks in Syria for the first time. Arias told member countries “it is in the nature of any thorough inquiry for individuals in a team to express subjective views.” He also said, “While some of these diverse views continue to circulate in some public discussion forums, I would like to reiterate that I stand by the independent, professional conclusion of the probe.” Britain, France and the US unleashed missile attacks on suspected chemical weapons facilities run by President Bashar al-Assad’s regime after the chemical weapon attack. Russia and Syria have alleged that the incident was staged to provide a pretext for Western military action.

The leaked email by an investigator and quoted by Wikileaks expresses the “gravest concern”, saying the OPCW report “misrepresents the facts” and contains “unintended bias.” The email, written in 2018, says the OPCW report changed the language on the levels of chlorine allegedly found compared to what investigators originally wrote, to make it appear that the presence of the chemical was more conclusive than it was. It also focuses on whether or not the chemical came from barrels found at the scene, and whether those barrels had been dropped from the air which would indicate Assad’s forces or placed manually there which would indicate it was staged by Syrian rebels. Earlier in 2019, the OPCW launched an internal investigation into the leak of another document by a member of the Douma team raising similar concerns.

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Syria agreed to hand over its chemical arsenal in 2013 to avoid US and French air strikes in retaliation for a suspected sarin attack that killed 1,400 people in the Damascus suburb of Ghouta. But the OPCW says there have been further attacks since then. Despite opposition from Syria and its allies, OPCW states voted in 2018 to give the organisation new powers to pin blame on culprits for the use of toxic arms.

• On November 20, Israel said its warplanes carried out a “very intense” attack against Iranian forces and Syrian army targets in Syria.

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, at least 23 people were killed in the attack. In a rare confirmation of their operations in Syria, the Israeli Army said they had carried out dozens of strikes against the Iranian elite Quds Force and the Syrian Military, in response to four rockets reportedly fired at Israel. According to Rami Abdel Rahman, head of the Observatory, 16 non-Syrian fighters were among the killed. Iran has fought alongside Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s forces the country’s civil war, heightening Israeli concerns over the presence of its enemy along its border. Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement, “This is what we did overnight vis-a-vis military targets of the Iranian Quds Force and Syrian military targets in Syria after a barrage of rockets was launched at Israel.” Earlier, on November 19, 2019, four rockets were fired at Israel from Syria. Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system intercepted the rockets. Israel has carried out frequent air and missile strikes against Iranian targets inside Syria since the country descended into civil war in 2011.

Turkey

• On November 25, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Doha and held talks with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani.

During his visit to the Turkish military base in Qatar, Erdogan said he hoped the dispute between the Saudi-led bloc and Qatar would “swiftly” come to an end amid emerging signs of a possible breakthrough in the Gulf crisis. However, he ruled out the closure of a Turkish military camp in Qatar, part of the Riyadh-led bloc’s string of conditions to end the isolation of Doha. Erdogan also said, “Those who tell us to close down this base have yet to grasp the fact that Turkey was Qatar’s friend in difficult times. Throughout our history, we have never let our friends face threats and danger alone, that we cannot do.”

During the visit, Ankara and Doha signed a number of economic and trade accords and agreed on enhanced cooperation in projects linked to the 2022 World Cup which Qatar will host. Erdogan’s visit comes at a critical time amid signs of a possible breakthrough in the crisis between Qatar and its neighbours in what could be pushing Ankara to further bolster its political and economic relations with Doha. Erdogan also attended the 5th meeting of the Qatar-Turkey Higher Strategic Committee at the invitation of Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani. Relations between Turkey and Qatar have been close in recent years. Ankara supported Doha

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after Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt severed ties with Qatar in 2017, accusing it of funding militant groups. Doha denies the charge. Qatar also declared its support for Ankara after it launched an offensive on October 9, 2019, against the Syrian Kurdish militia.

Yemen

• On November 29, Yemen’s Houthi movement claimed it shot down a Saudi Apache helicopter near the border with Saudi Arabia, killing its two pilots.

In a tweet, Houthi’s military spokesman, Yahya Sarea said, “A Saudi Apache helicopter was shot down by a surface-to-air missile... and its two pilots were killed as it was completely burned.” There was no immediate confirmation from the Saudi-led coalition.

• On November 18, Yemen’s internationally recognised government returned to the country for the first time since it was forced out by southern separatists during clashes.

Prime Minister, Maeen Abdulmalik Saeed landed in Aden, fulfilling a key point in the power-sharing deal brokered by Saudi Arabia that ended months of infighting with separatists in Yemen’s south. After he landed in Aden, Saeed said, “The government’s priorities in the next stage are to normalise the situation in Aden first and then consolidate state institutions on the ground ... as a guarantor of stability.” He described the government’s return as foundational for the improvement of civic services, but added that security challenges cannot be overlooked, especially at this stage. Saudi forces and local officials received Saeed and five key ministers from President Abed Rabbuh Mansour Hadi’s government at the air base. The government said in a statement, “Today we are uniting our efforts to defeat the Iranian project in Yemen and restore the state.” In August 2019, the separatists, backed by the UAE, overran Aden and drove out forces loyal to President Hadi, who has been based in Saudi Arabia since 2015. The power-sharing deal, signed earlier in November 2019 in Riyadh, calls for both sides to pull their forces out of Aden. That leaves the city under the coalition’s control, with only a presidential guard for Hadi’s protection if the exiled president were to return. The agreement also asks that the separatists break up their militias and integrate them into Hadi’s forces.

---Muhammad Shoaib

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SOUTH ASIA: I

Pakistan External

• On November 25, Queen Maxima of the Netherlands visited Islamabad in her capacity as the UN Secretary General’s Special Advocate (UNSGSA) for inclusive finance for development.

During her three-day visit, the Dutch Queen met with President Arif Alvi and Prime Minister Imran Khan. She also met with a range of stakeholders from the public and private sectors. Queen Maxima is actively engaged worldwide in promoting access of individuals and enterprises to financial services.

• On November 25, Paul Jones, the US Envoy in Islamabad, said that Pakistan had the sovereign right to make any decision on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Ambassador Jones’ remarks came a few days after Pakistan and China strongly criticised US Assistant Secretary for South Asia, Alice Wells for her comments that China was “providing loans to Pakistan, not grants like the US” adding that “together with non-CPEC Chinese debts payments, China is going to take a growing toll on the Pakistan economy, especially when the bulk of payment starts to come due in the next four to six years.” Wells warned that even if loan payments were deferred, “they are going to hang over Pakistan’s economic development potential, hamstringing Prime Minister Imran Khan’s reform agenda.” Ambassador Jones said that Ms Wells’ comments on CPEC were meant to generate a debate. However, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said the US had “evil intentions” and was trying to “drive a wedge between China and its all-weather ally Pakistan.”

• On November 21, Prime Minister Imran Khan held a telephonic conversation with US President Donald Trump.

According to the Prime Minister’s Office, issues linked to the Afghan peace process and the Kashmir dispute came under discussion. President Trump also discussed with PM Khan the release of two hostages, one American and one Australian, from Afghan Taliban and thanked the Pakistani Premier for his government’s efforts in facilitating their release. The US President also called Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and Amir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani who also played a crucial role in making the release possible. The two hostages remained in Taliban’s captivity for more than three years.

PM Imran Khan also apprised President Trump of the current situation in Kashmir, underscoring that over 8 million people remained under siege for over 100 days now. Khan stressed that the US President must continue his efforts for facilitation of a peaceful solution of the Jammu & Kashmir dispute. President Donald Trump has repeatedly offered to mediate between Pakistan and India to resolve the Kashmir issue. India insists that Kashmir is a

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“bilateral matter” between Pakistan and India with no scope for third party mediation. However, when Pakistan demands bilateral negotiations over Kashmir, India terms it an “integral part” of the country.

• On November 17, Pakistan’s Foreign Office rejected the “unfounded remarks” made by the Indian External Affairs Minister that the “situation is back to normal” in Kashmir.

In a November 15, 2019 interview to Le Monde, a French newspaper, Indian External Affairs Minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said that Pakistan and India relationship has remained “difficult since many years, mainly because Pakistan has developed a large terrorist industry and sends terrorists to India to carry out attacks.” He said that “no country would be willing to talk and negotiate with a neighbour who openly practices terrorism against it.” Pakistan says Indian officials continue to manufacture “facts” with regard to the issue of terrorism and the situation in the Kashmir saying, “If anything, Commander Kulbhushan Jadhav is the face of India’s “export” of terrorism to Pakistan”.

• During his visit to Tehran on November 19, Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa met with Iran’s civilian and military leadership, including President Hassan Rouhani, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri.

During the meeting, President Rouhani said that Tehran-Islamabad “relations in the economic field must reach a higher level than the current one and the two sides should not be satisfied with the current volume of trade and economic relations.” On his part, General Bajwa said no country can affect Pak-Iran relations and assured him that Pakistan would take all measures to expand trade and economic cooperation. Pakistan’s Army Chief also discussed with Iranian officials the border security which has long remained a major cause of concern in the Pakistan-Iran ties.

• On November 18, President Arif Alvi dismissed as “disgraceful” the remarks by a former Indian Army officer, Major General SP Sinha in which he advocated the rape of Kashmiri women.

The President’s reaction comes a day after a clip of Major General Sinha went viral on social media in which he was heard saying; “Death in return for death, rape in return for rape” in order to “avenge the atrocities against Kashmiri Pandits during their exodus from Kashmir in 1990.”

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Pakistan Internal

• On November 29, the Supreme Court of Pakistan granted a six-month conditional extension to the term of Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, after initially blocking a three-year extension of his tenure.

The top court ruled in a brief order that General Bajwa can stay as country’s Army Chief for six more months and directed the government to complete the necessary legislation regarding the extension rules in the constitution. The court said that the necessary legislation must be completed within six months. Prime Minister Imran Khan had given General Bajwa a three-year extension in August 2019. Bajwa was set to retire on November 29, 2019 three-year extension in August 2019. However, the decision was challenged in the court.

• On November 26, at least 2 people were killed in two grenade attacks in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir.

The Indian authorities claimed that suspected Kashmiri fighters carried out two grenade attacks; one at a group of village councillors and government officials in Srinagar and the second outside the University of Kashmir in Srinagar.

• On November 16, the Lahore High Court allowed former Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif to travel abroad for four weeks for medical treatment without any conditions, saying the duration could be extended based on medical reports.

The court ordered the government to remove his name from the Exit Control List (ECL). On November 13, 2019, the government of Pakistan allowed former PM Nawaz Sharif to travel abroad for his medical treatment in view of his “adverse critical medical condition.” However, the government had placed condition that Sharif’s family would submit surety bonds worth 7 billion rupees and give assurance that the former PM would return after “four weeks” and face corruption cases against him.

India

• On November 30, Defence Minister, Rajnath Singh said that Pakistan was indulging in a “proxy” war as it had realised that it could not win a “conventional” one.

The Defence Minister said that the path of “proxy” war chosen by Pakistan would only lead to its defeat. Singh was speaking at the passing out parade of the 137th course at National Defence Academy in Pune. He said that Pakistan had realised through the wars in 1965, 1971 and 1999 that it could not win against India in any conventional or limited war. He maintained that India always had cordial and friendly relations with other countries and that the country never had

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any extra-territorial ambitions. Singh, however, said, “if someone runs terror camps in our soil or are involved in an attack, we know how to give a befitting reply.”

• Citing India’s Consul-General in New York, Sandeep Chakravorty, Middle East Eye reported on November 26 that India plans to build Israeli-type settlements for the return of the Hindu population to Kashmir.

Speaking to Hindu community in New York, Chakravorty asked them to give more time to the government for implementing the plan. On August 5, 2019, Modi government revoked the special status of Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir by removing constitutional provisions Article 370 and 35-A that prevented non-Kashmiris to purchase any property in the territory. The move would now allow non-Kashmiris to purchase properties in Jammu and Kashmir.

---Muhammad Abdul Qadeer

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SOUTH ASIA II

Afghanistan

● On November 28, Vinay Kumar, India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan, said that New Delhi has held serious talks with Washington about peace in the country, and he thinks Afghans should have full ownership of the peace process.

Kumar stressed that the goal of peace efforts in Afghanistan should be to completely cut off terrorism in the region, and the Afghan process should be inclusive. He also said that sustainable peace in Afghanistan provides further opportunities for strengthening cooperation between India and Afghanistan. Regarding the ongoing peace efforts by the US Government, Kumar said that India has talked with the US regarding peace in Afghanistan, and that India supports the US efforts. He also mentioned that so far India has trained 6,000 Afghan officers and contributed 350 projects throughout Afghanistan. Kumar also said that India has committed $3 billion to Afghanistan’s development, from which $2 billion has already been spent.

● On November 28, US President, Donald Trump paid a surprise Thanksgiving visit to Afghanistan.

● On November 27, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley arrived in Kabul and said that the chances of a successful outcome from peace talks to end the Afghan war is higher than before and could happen in the near term.

President Trump spent more than two-and-a-half hours on the ground, serving turkey, and thanking the troops. He also held a brief meeting with Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani. Trump said that the US and the Taliban have been engaged in peace talks and insisted that the insurgent group wants to make a deal after heavy US fire in recent months. Ghani thanked the Americans for making the ultimate sacrifice in Afghanistan and said that Afghan Security Forces are taking the lead now. Ghani also tweeted after the meeting, “Both sides underscored that if the Taliban are sincere in their commitment to reaching a peace deal, they must accept a ceasefire. We also emphasised that for any peace to last, terrorist safe havens outside Afghanistan must be dismantled.” President Trump’s trip came as the US and regional powers have been making efforts to resume the peace process, after Trump abruptly broke off peace talks with the Taliban in September 2019. President Trump recently said that the US was proceeding with a plan to reduce troop levels to about 8,600, and that the US will stay in the country “until they have a deal or total victory.”

● IRNA reported on November 27 that a Taliban delegation visited Tehran and discussed efforts to find a peaceful solution to the Afghan conflict.

The delegation led by Taliban’s head of political office, Mullah Bradar met with Iran’s Foreign Minister, Jawad Zarif. According to the report, Tehran held such a meeting in line with the

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country’s efforts to bring about peace and stability to Afghanistan, and in continuation of negotiations between Iranian and Afghan officials including president and influential figures in that country. In the meeting, Zarif expressed Iran’s readiness to help hold Afghan-Afghan talks with the participation of the government and all influential powers in that country. Zarif also said that Iran is ready to develop economic and cultural cooperation with Afghanistan based on good neighbourly interests, and follows a policy of encouraging all sides in Afghanistan to find a solution through dialogue to ensure security in the neighbouring country after the withdrawal of foreign forces. A Taliban spokesman also confirmed the visit. It was the second time Afghan insurgent’s top delegation visited Tehran since US President Donald Trump cancelled talks with the Taliban in September 2019.

In a related development, Taliban chief negotiator, Abbas Stanekzai met with the EU Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Roland Kobia and German Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Markus Potzel on November 26 and 27, 2019, respectively in Doha. According to Taliban’s Political Office, the representatives discussed the ongoing situation in the country, peaceful solution of Afghanistan issue and the current peace process.

● On November 27, Afghanistan’s Chief Executive and presidential candidate, Abdullah Abdullah said that the Independent Election Commission (IEC) is acting at the behest of “one electoral team”.

Without directly naming President, Ashraf Ghani’s electoral team, Abdullah said that one campaign “spent huge amounts of money during the election, bullied, and used any means available, but the election result was very clear.” Abdullah’s campaign team said that they have 50.9% of the total votes and they are the winner of the presidential elections if the disputed votes are excluded. Abdullah’s team called for the invalidation of 300,000 disputed votes. The team also warned that they will launch widespread protests if the 300,000 votes are not excluded from the clean votes by November 30, 2019. Abdullah also stated that the IEC’ neutrality is in question, and their work is illegitimate. Ghani’s team rejected the allegations and said Abdullah’s team has created a hurdle for vote recount. Owing to the disturbances hindering the recount process, the IEC has already twice postponed the preliminary result of the ballot. An IEC spokesman said that the commission will announce its decision and will find another option if the government does not provide the grounds for implementing the electoral process.

● On November 27, Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defence claimed that its forces killed 17 Taliban insurgents during a 10-day clearing operation in Marjah district of Helmand province.

The district was surrounded by the Taliban over the past four years and all the highways were blocked to military convoys. A military commander said due to the closure of ground routes all the equipment had to be brought in to the security forces by air. In a related incident on November 20, 2019, at least 13 Afghan soldiers were killed and five others wounded in a Taliban

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attack on a military base in Kunduz province. In another incident on November 19, 2019, two US service members were killed in a helicopter crash in Afghanistan.

● On November 24, Tolo News reported that an unofficial meeting was held between the US and Taliban representatives in Doha.

According to the report, the two sides discussed a reduction in violence and the resumption of official talks. The Presidential Palace said Washington is consulting with the Afghan government during these unofficial talks and added, “This time, we are in agreement in the sense that our goals and priorities for peace are completely clear, with issues like a reduction of violence which will result in a ceasefire, and, ultimately, the start of direct negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban.” The unofficial meeting occurred almost a week after a high-level prisoner exchange between the Afghan government and the Taliban.

● On November 23, US President, Donald Trump said that the US is working on an agreement with the Taliban.

Talking to a Fox News anchor, President Trump said, “You know we are pulling way down in Afghanistan. We are working on an agreement with the Taliban. Let us see what happens.” He added, “The last time I was supposed to have an agreement, then they (the Taliban) thought when they came over, they thought it would be good to kill people so they could negotiate from a position of strength. They killed 12 people in order to show their tough guys, and I cancelled the meeting.” Earlier, on November 20, 2019, in a tweet, President Trump commended the release of two professors by the Taliban and said that it will pave the way for a ceasefire and help facilitate peace in Afghanistan. He also talked to Afghan President, Ashraf Ghani and Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Imran Khan and congratulated them for facilitating the prisoner exchange.

● On November 22, US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, Alice Wells said that China has not been a real player in Afghanistan development and is not a provider of any significant grant assistance.

Wells said that Afghanistan’s neighbours Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have done much more to aid the country with regional connectivity initiatives such as cross-border railways, electricity lines and trade exchange. She, however, said, “Right now I would say I see opportunities for the United States and China to be important partners in reinforcing the need for a negotiated political settlement, and you see Ambassador Khalilzad regularly consulting with his Chinese counterpart, among other regional actors.” Wells’ comments came as China has planned to host a peace settlement meeting. The meeting was scheduled for October 2019 but was delayed.

● On November 21, NATO’s Senior Civilian Representative, Nicholas Kay said that there should be no complete withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan until there is a complete peace agreement.

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Kay said that a comprehensive peace agreement would be the product of intra-Afghan negotiations. He added, “The Taliban will not win, it is as simple as that. The Taliban will not win on the battlefield because the ANDSF are increasingly strong and capable, and they are increasingly strong and capable because of the training, advice, assistance and funding they get from NATO.” Meanwhile, NATO General Secretary, Jens Stoltenberg hoped that the Afghan war will end politically and said, “We welcome the release of the two professors at the American University in Kabul that have been held in captivity by Taliban for some time. These are confidence-building measures. Hopefully, they can move us closer to the resumption of the peace talks and therefore also lay the grounds for a political, negotiated solution to the conflict, the crisis in Afghanistan.”

● On November 21, US senators introduced bipartisan legislation mandating the US congress’ oversight of the Afghan peace process.

“Ensuring a Durable Afghanistan Peace Act of 2019” was introduced by Senators Bob Menendez and Senator Todd Young. The legislation is intended to protect Afghan human rights, prevent the chaos of a quick troop withdrawal, and deny access to terrorists seeking a safe haven. The legislature also highlights the necessity of monitoring and verifying Taliban compliance with their commitments under an eventual peace agreement, including assurance that Afghanistan will not be used as a platform for international terrorism, and requires an assessment of the status of human rights, rule of law, freedoms of media and press, and civil society’s operating space in Afghanistan following a peace deal.

● On November 21, the US said that it supports continued Indian involvement in Afghanistan.

Nancy Izzo Jackson, a US State Department official in charge of Afghanistan, said that the US welcomes India’s substantial investment in and assistance to Afghanistan, and will continue to support efforts to achieve an honourable and enduring outcome that preserves America’s investment in Afghanistan’s future. However, India’s involvement in Afghanistan remains a concern for Pakistan. Islamabad has restricted India’s land access to Afghanistan through Pakistan due to New-Delhi’s support for anti-Pakistan elements orchestrating cross border attacks. Pakistan has also been facilitating the Afghan peace process. On November 22, 2019, US President Trump talked to Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Imran Khan and praised his role in the peace process. Khan re-affirmed Pakistan’s commitment to the advancement of the Afghan peace and reconciliation process for a peaceful and stable Afghanistan. Meanwhile, the Indian Ambassador in Washington said that any settlement in Afghanistan needed to ensure that there is no room for any terrorist elements to create a foothold. For a successful and peaceful settlement of Afghan dispute, the challenge remains for the US to find a common ground between Indo-Pak interests in the country.

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● On November 20, a Pentagon report claimed that Iran support the Taliban with weapons, training and funding to counter US and Western influence in Afghanistan.

The report said that as compared to groups like Hezbollah, the Afghan Taliban are less receptive to Iranian guidance but still help further Iran’s regional objectives because they combat common enemies. The report added, “Since at least 2007, Iran has provided calibrated support including weapons, training, and funding to the Taliban to counter US and Western influence in Afghanistan, combat Daesh-Khorasan, and increase Tehran’s influence in any post-reconciliation government. Iran balances this support as part of its dual-track strategy for engaging both local groups and the Afghan government in Kabul to achieve its broader security goals. Tehran does not seek to return the Taliban to power but aims to maintain influence with the group as a hedge in the event that the Taliban gains a role in a future Afghan government.” During his meeting with Pakistan Army Chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa on November 19, 2019, Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani criticised US presence in Afghanistan. He said, “We all know that the solution is the cooperation of all groups and different ethnic groups in determining the future of Afghanistan, and it is the people of the country who can decide without the interference of foreign powers.” Iran’s relationship with the Taliban has evolved over the years. Following the Taliban’s rise to power in the 1990s, Iran refused to recognise the group as a legitimate government. In 1998, Iran nearly went to war with Afghanistan after the Taliban captured and killed nine Iranian diplomats. Relations began to thaw after the US invasion of Afghanistan.

● On November 18, Afghan government forces in Nangarhar announced the elimination of Daesh from the province after 243 Daesh fighters with 625 women and children surrendered to the government.

According to the Defence Ministry, those who surrendered were from Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Maldives and Uzbekistan. On November 19, 2019, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani visited Nangarhar and commended Security Forces. Ghani said during his visit, “My request, Mr. Governor, is to speak to the elders as soon as possible in order to deal in an Afghan and Islamic way with the women and children of Daesh fighters and to prepare a plan to transfer them to the other tribes of Waziristan or Khyber Agency. I do not want to hand them over to Pakistan.”

Nepal

● On November 17, Nepal’s Prime Minister, KP Sharma Oli said that India should withdraw its security forces from the Kalapani area.

Oli’s message came against the backdrop of the publication of India’s new political map depicting the Kalapani region as Indian territory. Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had issued

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a press release, stating that the Government of Nepal was clear on the fact that the Kalapani region belonged to Nepal. Addressing a gathering of National Youth Organisation, PM Oli said the government would not allow anybody to encroach on even an inch of Nepal’s territory. He said his government was capable of protecting the country’s border. He added that all forces of the country were united to reclaim the encroached land of the country and they have given a message of unity. India holds territorial disputes with all its neighbours. The new political maps issued by the Modi Administration manifest India’s renewed expansionist objectives.

Sri Lanka

● On November 29, newly elected President of Sri Lanka, Gotabaya Rajapaksa visited India and met with Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi.

Rajapaksa thanked Modi for offering US $50 million to enhance the capabilities of intelligence agencies in Sri Lanka. Modi also announced a line of credit of US $400 million to boost Sri Lanka’s development. Addressing a joint press briefing, Rajapaksa said since the recent Easter Sunday terror incident in April 2019, Sri Lanka had to rethink national security strategies. He added, “Assistance from India in this regard is most appreciated and Prime Minister Modi’s assurances are most encouraging.” He also invited Modi to visit Sri Lanka. Modi said India gives priority to its relations with Sri Lanka under its Neighbourhood First policy. He also said that a strong and prosperous Sri Lanka is not only in the interest of India but in the interest of the entire Indian Ocean region. Sri Lanka holds key geostrategic location on the Indian Ocean, and the country remains to be the victim of great powers’ influence. Rajapaksa while talking to an Indian journalist said that he remained committed to close ties with both China and India, he would renegotiate the Hambantota Port lease agreement with China, terming it a “mistake” and calling on the Chinese company to be open to the move. He also said, “The previous government gave it on a 99-year lease, and even though China is a good friend of ours and we need their assistance for development, I am not afraid to say that was a mistake.” China responded to Rajapaksa’s remarks and deliberated that the cooperation between Sri Lanka and China, including in the project of Hambantota Port, was based on equal-footed consultation and win-win spirit. A spokesperson from the Chinese Embassy in Colombo added that the Hambantota Port was totally owned and controlled by Sri Lanka and any approvals and decisions regarding the port were to be taken by the Sri Lankan side.

● On November 27, Sri Lanka’s new interim government dismissed a statement made by a leading US State Department official who claimed that the controversial Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) agreement would be launched in Sri Lanka soon.

A day earlier, the US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, Alice Wells said, “We have another MCC that we are launching soon in Sri Lanka that will undertake the same kind of nitty-gritty reforms in land registration and motorway harmonisation

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that will, we determine, you help unlock economic development.” The MCC is a US foreign assistance agency which forms partnerships with developing countries. The previous Cabinet of ministers of the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government had given approval to the then Finance Minister Mangala Samaraweera to sign the Compact with MCC. However, the newly appointed SME and Enterprise Development, Industry and Logistics, Minister Wimal Weerawansa affirmed that the MCC Compact would not be signed under the new government headed by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Wells also highlighted that Sri Lanka was one of the victims of China’s One Belt and Road Initiative, having forced to cede its sovereignty over a key asset (Hambantota Port). She emphasised that the United States shares India’s concerns in countries ceding sovereignty over the projects financed under China’s One Belt One Road Initiative.

● On November 20, Gotabaya Rajapaksa assumed duties as the 7th Executive President of Sri Lanka.

The candidate for the Sri Lanka People’s Front commonly known by its Sinhalese name Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), Rajapaksa took 52.25% of the vote in November 16, 2019 presidential election. The rival United National Party (UNP) candidate, Sajith Premadasa got 41.99%. The vote was divided down ethnic lines, with the majority Sinhala Buddhist community overwhelmingly backing Rajapaksa while Tamils favoured Premadasa. Rajapaksa led the Sri Lankan Armed Forces during the end of the country’s decades-long civil war, while his older brother, Mahinda Rajapaksa, was president. On November 22, 2019, Rajapaksa appointed a new 16-member interim cabinet headed by his brother Mahinda, who will now serve as prime minister and finance minister. Sri Lanka’s existing parliamentary term ends in August 2020, and the constitution allows the president to dissolve the legislature in March 2020, and go for an election. Rajapaksa has pledged parliamentary elections at the earliest opportunity.

---Kashif Hussain

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UNITED NATIONS

• On November 27, senior UN officials, Ambassadors and other representatives from the international community in New York held a meeting to commemorate the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People, officially observed each year on November 29.

• On November 22, UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Nickolay Mladenov asserted that Israeli settlement activities were “a flagrant violation under international law,” regardless of any national foreign policy declaration.

In his message for the International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres noted that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains one of the most difficult challenges facing the international community. Guterres stressed that there is no viable alternative to the two-State solution. During the meeting, UN officials called for ensuring humanitarian support and expressed hope that the two-state solution would be realised. The International Day of Solidarity with the Palestinian People was established in 1977 to mark the day in 1947 when the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution partitioning Palestine into an Arab State and a Jewish State.

In a related development on November 22, 2019, UN Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process, Nickolay Mladenov noted that the UN considered Israeli settlement activities as a flagrant violation under international law, and told the UNSC that “the UN position remains unchanged.” Mladenov expressed regret over the US’ November 18, 2019, announcement that the country “no longer views settlements as inconsistent with international law.” US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, said that “calling the establishment of civilian settlements inconsistent with international law hasn’t worked. It hasn’t advanced the cause of peace.” The UN Special Coordinator called the settlements “a major obstacle to the achievement of the two-state solution and a just, lasting and comprehensive peace.” Mladenov said intra-Palestinian division between various factions in Gaza was “a desperate reality;” a lasting peace could not be ensured until “Palestinian leaders cannot continue to avoid the devastating consequences of their internal political division.”

Meanwhile on November 19, 2019, UN spokesperson Stephane Dujarric noted that the longstanding position of the UN regarding Israeli settlements in Occupied Palestinian Territory, that they are in breach of international law, is unchanged. Dujarric made these comments in response to the US. According to the UN Security Council Resolution 2334, Israeli settlements on Palestinian land occupied since 1967, have “no legal validity”, and constitute a “flagrant violation under international law and a major obstacle to the vision of two states living side-by-side in peace and security, within internationally recognised borders.”

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• On November 26, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released its annual Emission Gap Report warning that the world was heading for a 3.2 degrees Celsius global temperature rise over pre-industrial levels, even if countries meet commitments made under the 2015 Paris Agreement.

The report noted that increased greenhouse gas emissions would lead to wider-ranging and more destructive climate impacts. According to the report, emissions need to fall by 7.6% each year over the next decade, if the world desires to limit global temperature rises close to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Failure in limiting the temperature would cause the world to face more frequent and intense climate impacts. However, the report noted that solutions exist and it is possible to reach the 1.5-degree goal by 2030.

• On November 22, UN Special Envoy, Geir Pedersen said the launch of the Syrian Constitutional Committee could be a “door-opener” to finally providing a solution to the country’s brutal conflict.

While briefing the UNSC, Pedersen said, “This launch was a sign of hope for the Syrian people, and a chance for the Syrian parties to begin a direct dialogue that they lead and own, on the future of a broken country.” Negotiations for the Committee were held in Geneva in October 2019 and brought together 150 participants: 50 each nominated by the Government, opposition and civil society. The participants would resume negotiations on November 25, 2019. Pedersen noted, “The Government and opposition will be able in time to establish a relationship, violence will abate, and conditions on the ground will change, and a comprehensive and decisive solution will finally emerge for the benefit of all Syrians.”

• On November 22, US Special Envoy, Martin Griffiths noted that the momentum to reach a political settlement in Yemen “has been building” in the country.

While briefing the UNSC, Griffiths stated that the contesting parties were working together for de-escalation of hostilities and economic crisis in the country, where a Saudi-led coalition backing the Government has been trying to defeat Houthi rebel forces during more than four years of brutal fighting. He highlighted that the momentum had been building up owing to the Riyadh Agreement, signed on November 5, 2019, between the Government and the Southern Transitional Council, and the implementation of the Stockholm Agreement, which among other things, has enabled fuel ships to enter the crucial port city of Hudaydah, averting a worsening humanitarian crisis. However, he did express concern over increasing movement restrictions on the UN Mission to Support the Hudaydah Agreement (UNMHA).

--- Moiz Khan