Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

L. Tarrason, J. E. Jonson, M. Gauss, S. Valiyaveetil, P. Wind, I. Isaksen

EMEP/MSC-W

Evaluation of theEvaluation of theglobal EMEP model andglobal EMEP model andcomparisons with thecomparisons with the

OsloCTM2 model OsloCTM2 model

ACCENT Workshop, IIASA, Laxenburg, 04-05 December 2007

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

EMEP at regional scale

Horizontal resolution:Regional 50 x 50 km2(170 x 133 cells, over Europe)

Vertical resolution: 20 σ-layers (up to 100 hPa),10 layers in PBL

Off-line meteorology: 3-h meteorological input from

HIRLAM PSBoundary conditions: Flexible choice (modelled or

climatological for O3)Currently: climatological BCs + Mace-Head ozone assimilation

Emissions: EMEP estimates Vertical distribution by sector

GENEMIS time factorsDefault VOC speciation (Middleton et

al)Land use and land classes: SEI

Chemical transport model development and evaluation for 25 yearsTrademark : support to the design of policy control options

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Schematic structure of EMEP UNIFIED

Flexible choice of grid projection, domain and resolution!

Boundary, lateral and initial conditions

Advection

Dry and Wet Deposition

Emissions

UNI - ACID EMEP acidification10 species + PPM

UNI - AEROEMEP aerosol model

14 species, 4 size modes

UNI - OZONE EMEP photochemistry

69 species, 170 reactions

Aerosol dynamicsMultimono

Meteorological conditions

PPM mass: 2 species

SOA module

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

EMEP at national and local scale

EMEP4SE

EMEP4UK

EMEP4HR

National projects in UK, Croatia and Sweden

EMEP in local scale:

Allow national experts to do their own assessments of the origin of local air pollution with consistent regional boundary conditions from EMEP Unified

Flexibility = Robustness

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Extension of model domain to hemispheric scale, first step towards global model

Polar stereographic, 100x100 km2 resolution

• performance similar to the regional scale EMEP model

• slightly lower correlation with primary species due to coarser resolution (100x100 km2)

• improved performance for ozone in Mediterranean areas and for SIA and wet deposition – due to use of ECMWF met. fields

• general underestimation of free tropospheric ozone levels, need for introduction of convective exchange and improved stratospheric boundary condition

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Ozone daily mean, GAW stations, hemispheric model

RyoriTsukuba

Minamitorishima Yonagunijima

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Global scale model, MSC-W

• Fine resolution grid: Latitude Longitude, 1º x 1º resolution• Meteorological data derived from ECMWF IFS T319 (1

year: 2001)• Same model as regional EMEP model, but different grid

projection and input data• Emissions from AEROCOM, ACCES, EDGAR/Retro, Land

use MM5

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

No model is better than its input data: Global NOx (kg m-2) emissions

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

July NO2 column (1015 molec/cm2) from GOME (top) and the EMEP global model (bottom).

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Ozone EMEP stations

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Similar problems as with the hemispheric model

General underestimation of free tropospheric ozone levels

• need to implement convective exchange

• need to improve stratospheric boundary condition

• (increase the resolution in tropopause region)

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Local/regional pollution in lower troposphere in summer?

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

EMEP as service model

Open access to model code and routine model results Improved internet sites Seminars for the EMEP model Visit the new data sites

at http://www.emep.int

Enhanced flexibility of the model by allowing the use of different nesting techniques to run with different meteorology

Enhanced evaluation of the model, including satellite data, in-situ data from EANET, LIDAR data NRT Data, contribution to GMES Fast Track Services* Use of data assimilation techniques (*not funded by EMEP)

OsloCTM2

• Meteorology: ECMWF IFS data

• Vertical res.: 40 layers, surface – 10 hPa (60 layers, surface – 0.1 hPa)

• Horizontal res.: T42, 1ºx1º

• Advection: S.O.M. scheme

• Chemistry: tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry (incl. het. chem. and on-line J-values)

• Surface emissions: Retro/POET

• BL mixing, convective transp., lightning/aircraft emissions, dry/wet deposition, …

Transport

surface

2 hPa

Bnd.Cond.: OSLO 2-D

NCEP tropopause

20 hPa

Tropospheric chemistry module: 51 components

Stratospheric chemistry module: 64 components

Chemistry

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Modeled versus Observed Daily Maximum surface Ozone (ppbv) for selected European stations in 2001.Observations: blackglobal EMEP: redOsloCTM2: blue

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Syowa Station / Antarctica

Ryori (Japan)

Cape Point (S. Africa)

Modeled versus Observed Daily Max surface Ozone (ppbv) for selected GAW stations in 2001.

Observations: blackglobal EMEP: redOsloCTM2: blue

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Minamitorishima (Japan)

Modeled versus Observed Daily mean CO (ppbv) at different GAW stations in 2001.Observations: blackglobal EMEP: redOsloCTM2: blue

Hohenpeissenberg (Germany)

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Annual scatter plots for different sulfur compounds measured at European EMEP stations. Units: μg(S)m−3

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Annual timeseries of daily SO2 surface mixing ratio (ppbv) over selected European stations.

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Summary and conclusions (1/2)

• Further evaluation of the performance of the hemispheric and global model is needed

– evaluation of the effect of convection on free tropospheric ozone– need to co-operate with Asian experts on monitoring data,

evaluation with regional Asian network, in particular EANET– explore possibilities of enhanced collaboration with the remote

sensing communities

• There is a strong need to revise and validate emission data and land use information, especially over Asia, in co-operation with international experts (TFHTAP, bilateral links)

• Demonstrate usefulness of EMEP (and OsloCTM2) models as links between emissions and remote sensing.

Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no

Megacities: The CityZen project (2008-2011)16 partners from Europe, China, Africa (coord. met.no)

Focus on four emission hot spots:

- Eastern Mediterranean- BeNeLux / Ruhr area- Po Valley- Pearl River Delta

• Detect long-term trends from satellite observations and inverse modelling (U Bremen, CNRS). Study impact of megacity emissions on AQ and climate and vice versa. Future scenarios (IIASA).

• EMEP and OsloCTM2 involved together with other models dealing with local, regional and global scales. Scale-bridging.