Normal Heat Hours and phenology - Agrometeorologia · Normal Heat Hours and phenology ... IM02...

Normal Heat Hours and phenology

Gabriele Cola (1), Roberto Caterisano(2), Paola Cirone (2), Massimiliano Ghironi (3), Beatrice Pesenti Barili (3), Luigi Mariani (1), Osvaldo

Failla (1)(1) Università degli Studi di Milano - DiProVe.

(2) Agenzia Regionale per lo Sviluppo e per i Servi zi in Agricoltura della Calabria

(3) Centro di Agrometeorologia Applicata Regionale della Regione Liguria

XIV Convegno Nazionale di Agrometeorologia - AIAM 2011 - BOLOGNA, 8 Giugno 2011

Biological time expressed by means of

THERMAL UNITS (TU)(Tmed-Cmin)/2

FROM THERMAL TIME TO BIOLOGICAL TIME

FROM THERMAL TIME TO BIOLOGICAL TIME

NORMAL HEAT HOURS (NHH)

Response function

T - developement.

Beta Function (Wang & Engel, 1998)

Temperature Response Model (Weikai & Hunt, 1999)

MIN

OPT1 OPT2

MAX

OLIVE: subtropical fruit tree or shrub of great longevity.

PLACE OF ORIGIN OF THIS SPECIES : between southernTurkey and northern Syria. The olive was spread throughout the Mediterranean Basin by Phoenicians, Greeks and Romans.

IN THE LAST CENTURIES : spread to the whole world areaswith Mediterranean like climates (Koeppen's Cs), in areasbertween 30 and 40°of North and South latitude; howev er olive is cultivated in many other areas with climates that do not fitunder this designation (Denney et al., 1985).

OLIVE TREE - ECOLOGICAL OUTLOOK

F. sans-Cortez et al., 2002

MAIN PHENOLOGICAL STAGES

F. Sanz-Cortéz et al., 2002

00 07

09 11

336865

57

53 55

60

71 79

81 89

92

MAIN PHENOLOGICAL STAGES

OLIVE BBCH

Harvest maturity89

Increasing of specific fruit colouring85

Beginning of fruit colouring81

Fruit size about 50% of final size. Stone starts to lignificate(it shows cutting resistance)75

Fruit size about 30% of final size73

Fruit size about 10% of final size71

End of flowering, fruit set, non-fertilized ovaries fallen69

Full flowering: at least 50% of flowers open65

Beginning of flowering: 10% of flowers open61

The corolla, longer than calyx, starts to change the color from green to white58

Flower cluster totally expanded. Floral buds start to open.Mignolatura55

Flower cluster growing54

Inflorescence buds open. Flower cluster development starts.52

Shoots reach 10% of final size31

External small leaves opening further with their tips inter crossing.9

Foliar buds disclosure2

DESCRIPTIONBBCH

2000/2010 5838.269716.2517caroleaCalabriasidernoRC01

2000/2010 45038.949716.7088caroleaCalabriazagariseCZ02

2000/2010 50838.99216.65caroleaCalabriazagariseCZ01

2000/2010 25039.654216.2167caroleaCalabriamontalto uffugoCS01

2000/20109939.821216.4098caroleaCalabriacerchiaraCS01

2009,201016044.38.3895pignolaLiguriaViarzoSV02

2009,20105044.14768.2632colombaiaLiguriaRanzi, CastellariSV01

2008,200912043.92898.0612taggiascaLiguriaCostaIM02

2008,200919044.06258.013taggiascaLiguriaCornaiIM01

2008,200923544.37649.0945pignolaLiguriaPieve AltaGE02

2008,200915044.33569.3413lavagninaLiguriaCaperanaGE01

2000/20092044.14819.9205variousLiguriaPonzano Basso (villa Pratola)SP01

PERIODMSLCOOYCOOXCvRegionSiteName

MODEL CALIBRATIONDataset: Experimental site of Santo Stefano Magra (SP)

Period: 2000 - 2010

CALIBRATION APPROACH

Fixed cardinal minimum temperature = 6 °CVariable first cardinal optimal temperature = 15 – 25 °CVariable first cardinal optimal temperature = 20 – 35 °CVariable cardinal maximum temperature = 30 – 40 °C

1132 COMBINATIONS

1132 models based on NHH sums thresholds

Starting date: January 1st

MODEL CHOICE BASED ON STATISTICAL INDEXES

(MAE, RRMSE, R2)

NHHsum

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

01/0

1/00

15/0

1/00

29/0

1/00

12/0

2/00

26/0

2/00

11/0

3/00

25/0

3/00

08/0

4/00

22/0

4/00

06/0

5/00

20/0

5/00

03/0

6/00

17/0

6/00

01/0

7/00

15/0

7/00

29/0

7/00

12/0

8/00

26/0

8/00

09/0

9/00

23/0

9/00

07/1

0/00

21/1

0/00

04/1

1/00

18/1

1/00

02/1

2/00

16/1

2/00

30/1

2/00

date

NH

Hsu

m

BBCH 52 – 954 NHH

BBCH 65 – 1566 NHH

BBCH 75 – 2855 NHH

213273

183771

171269

156665

145358

285575

123855

111154

95452

NHHsumBBCH

SELECTED MODELcardinal minimum temperature = 6 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 18 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 30 °C

cardinal maximum temperature = 36 °C

SP01 dataset – 2000/2009

MODEL VALIDATION - MAE

22.36GE01

16.91GE02

11.00IM01

9.86SV02

9.82IM02

3.77SV01

MODEL VALIDATION – MAE - LIGURIA

15.07BBCH 75

10.43BBCH 73

5.67BBCH 71

10.13BBCH 69

9.00BBCH 65

14.10BBCH 59

14.29BBCH 55

12.00BBCH 54

13.67BBCH 52

MODEL VALIDATIONDatasets: Genova (GE01, GE02), Imperia (IM01, IM02) Savona (SV01)

Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010

BBCH 52

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

GE01 GE02 IM01 IM02 SV01 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

BBCH 54

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

GE01 GE02 IM01 IM01 IM02 IM02 SV01 SV01 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated


Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010

BBCH 55

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

GE01 GE02 IM01 IM02 SV01 SV02 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

BBCH 58

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

GE01 GE01 GE02 GE02 IM01 IM02 SV01 SV01 SV02 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated


Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010

BBCH 65

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

GE01 GE02 IM01 SV01 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

BBCH 69

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

GE01 GE02 IM01 IM01 IM02 IM02 SV01 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated


Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010

BBCH 71

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

GE01 GE01 GE02 GE02 IM01 IM02 SV01 SV02 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

BBCH 73

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

IM01 IM01 IM01 SV01 SV01 SV02 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated


Period: 2008 – 2009 - 2010

BBCH 75

160

180

200

220

240

260

GE01 GE01 GE02 GE02 IM01 IM01 IM01 IM02 IM02 IM02 SV01 SV01 SV02 SV02

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

SV01

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

54 58 69 73 75 52 54 55 58 65 71 73 75

BBCH

DO

Y

measured simulated

MODEL VALIDATION

2009

MAE = 3.4

2010

MAE = 4

GE02

90110

130150170

190210

52 54 55 58 65 69 71 75 58 71 75

BBCH

DO

Y

measured simulated

MODEL VALIDATAION

2008

MAE = 18.42009

MAE = 13

203973

176269

150265

243575

94855

NHHsumBBCH

MODEL THRESHOLDS CALIBRATION FOR

CALABRIA

SELECTED MODELcardinal minimum temperature = 6 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 18 °Ccardinal optimal temperature = 30 °C

cardinal maximum temperature = 36 °C

CALIBRATION - CALABRIA

CZ02 dataset – 2000/2010

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

55 55 55 55 55 65 65 65 65 65 69 69 69 69 73 73 73 73 75 75 75 75

measured simulated

MAE = 5.75

VALIDATION - CALABRIA

BBCH 55

8090

100110120130140150

OCZ1

OCZ1

OCS2

OCS1

ORC1

OCS2

OCS1

OCS1

OCZ1

OCZ1

OCS1

OCS2

ORC1

OCS1

OCS1

OCZ1

ORC1

OCZ1

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

BBCH 65

110

120

130140

150

160

170

OCZ1

OCS1

OCS1

OCS2

OCS1

OCS2

ORC1

OCS2

OCZ1

OCS1

OCZ1

OCS2

OCS1

OCS2

OCZ1

OCS1

OCZ1

site

DO

Y

measured simulated


BBCH 69

120

130

140150

160

170

180

OCZ1

OCS1

OCS2

OCS2

OCS1

OCZ1

OCS2

ORC1

OCZ1

OCS2

OCS1

OCS2

ORC1

OCS2

OCS2

OCS1

OCS2

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

BBCH 73

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

OCZ1

OCS1

OCS2

OCS1

ORC1

OCZ1

OCS1

OCS2

ORC1

OCS2

OCS1

ORC1

ORC1

OCS1

ORC1

OCS2

site

DO

Y

measured simulated


BBCH 75

150160170180190200210220230240

OCZ1

OCS1

OCZ1

OCS1

ORC1

OCS2

OCS1

OCZ1

OCS1

OCZ1

OCS2

ORC1

ORC1

OCZ1

OCS1

OCZ1

OCZ1

OCZ1

site

DO

Y

measured simulated

MODEL VALIDATION - MAE

11.51RC01

9CZ01

17.24CS02

16.18CS01

MODEL VALIDATION – MAE - CALABRIA

21.65BBCH 75

11.25BBCH 73

9.21BBCH 69

11.02BBCH 65

14.46BBCH 55

CONCLUSIONS

SERIE METEO

SERIE FENOLOGICHE

DIFFERENZE VARIETALI

Normal Heat Hours and phenology - Agrometeorologia · Normal Heat Hours and phenology ... IM02...

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