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21
Greenhill Scott L. Bok Chief Executive Officer Credit Suisse 18 th Annual Financial Services Forum February 7, 2017 Greenhill 2016: Sector-Leading Growth and Profitability

Transcript of No Slide Title - Greenhill & Co. › sites › default › files › credit_suisse_18th...2017/02/07...

Page 1: No Slide Title - Greenhill & Co. › sites › default › files › credit_suisse_18th...2017/02/07  · Greenhill Scott L. Bok – Chief Executive Officer Credit Suisse 18th Annual

Greenhill

Scott L. Bok – Chief Executive Officer

Credit Suisse 18th Annual Financial Services Forum

February 7, 2017

Greenhill 2016: Sector-Leading Growth and Profitability

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Greenhill

Forward-Looking Statements

Statements contained in this Presentation that are not based on

current or historical fact are forward-looking in nature. Such forward-

looking statements are based on current plans, estimates and

expectations and are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation

Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are based on known

and unknown risks, assumptions, uncertainties and other factors. For a

further discussion of such factors, you should read the Company’s

Forms 10-K, Forms 10-Q, subsequent Forms 8-K and other periodic

reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The

Company’s actual results, performance, or achievements may differ

materially from any future results, performance, or achievements

expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. The

Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any

forward-looking statements

1

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Greenhill

Summary Investment Thesis

Very strong 2016 performance

– Sector leading revenue growth and profit margin

– EPS more than doubled

– Significant share repurchases on top of large dividend

Long history of market share growth

Long history of profit margin leadership

Long history of strong dividend

– Highest yield in sector (6%+*)

Long history of ~flat share count

Multiple reasons for optimism going forward

– M&A environment favorable, adding talent, possibly lower tax rates

Management / MDs aligned with shareholders with ~20%** economic

ownership

2 * 6.15% as of 2/1/17 ** Includes stock and restricted stock

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Greenhill

Greenhill 29%

Evercore 27%

Credit Suisse* 19%

Houlihan Lokey 15%

Morgan Stanley 13%

PJT* 8%

Moelis* 8%

Jefferies 3%

Lazard 2%

JP Morgan (1%)

UBS (4%)

Citigroup (9%)

Deutsche Bank (15%)

Goldman Sachs (16%)

BofAML (16%)

We Ranked #1 in % Advisory Revenue Increase in 2016

3

The Advisory Fee Pool for Our Full Competitor Group

Was Flat to Slightly Down in 2016 * Based on third quarter year to date data Note: Foreign revenues converted to USD using period average exchange rate Source: Company filings and releases

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Greenhill

Our 2016 Revenue Sources Demonstrate Diversity

Strength in several areas…

– U.S. M&A

– U.K. M&A

– Industrials, Healthcare, TMT

far more than compensated for modest contributions elsewhere

– Australia

– Japan

– Latin America

– Primary and secondary capital advisory

4

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Greenhill

2016 Performance Continues Long History of Market Share Gains

5

0

100

200

300

400

500

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Greenhill Advisory Revenue Lazard Advisory Revenue Goldman Sachs Advisory Revenue

Source: Company filings and releases

3.9x

2.0x

1.3x

Advisory Revenue vs Largest M&A Advisor and Largest Independent

Advisor, since 1999 (earliest available data)

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Greenhill

Repeat Clients Another Continuing Source of Growth

Note: Selected 2015-16 transaction clients for which we have advised on multiple transactions 7

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Greenhill

Greenhill Client Base the Most Diverse by Sector (8 Sectors @ 8%+)

8 Note: Based on 2015-16 announced deal count. Deal count and industry allocations based on target industry, both per Thomson One data as of 1/23/17

13%7%

18% 16%8%

20%

8%

1%

7%

2%

3%

7%9%

29%

12%

9%31%

10%8%

13% 11%

13%

5%9%

15%

9%7%

10%

6%15%

11%

19%

9%

9%9%

10%8%

4%

5%11%

10%

5%2%

4%

4% 4%5%

1%1%

1%1%

2%

4% 3%1% 3%

25%

12%

22% 23% 22% 21%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Greenhill Evercore Lazard Moelis PJT Houlihan Lokey

Pe

rce

nt

of

Co

mp

an

y T

ota

l D

ea

l C

ou

nt Industrials and Materials

Real Estate

Government and Agencies

Telecommunications

Media and Entertainment

High Technology

Healthcare

Financials

Energy and Power

Retail

Consumer Products and Services

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Greenhill

2016 Continues History of Leadership in Profitability

Pre-Tax Margin (Including All GAAP Compensation Costs)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015(1) 2016

GHL 35% 38% 21% 23% 25% 25% 25% 17% 26%

LAZ 2% (12%) 8% 13% 6% 11% 23% 23% 22%

EVR (5%) 7% 9% 7% 11% 18% 19% 11% 19%

MC n.a. 12% 16% (2%) 10% 18% 9% 26% 25%

HLI n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 18% 19% 18% 20%

25%+ GAAP Pre-Tax Margins in 7 of Last 10 Years

9

Note: HLI figures calendarized to 12/31, MC 2016 figures represent YTD 9/30 (1) LAZ adjusted for tax receivable agreement in 2015 Source: Public filings

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Greenhill

69% 68%74%

80% 81%

94%

15%12%

8%

8% 7%

3%

4%7%

7%

7%3%

1%

8%5%

5%

3%5%

1%5%8%

6%3% 5%

1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Greenhill Evercore Lazard Moelis PJT HoulihanLokey

Perc

en

t o

f C

om

pan

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ota

l D

eal C

ou

nt

Over 5bn

2bn - 5bn

1bn - 2bn

500mm - 1bn

<500mm or NA

Our Focus on Larger Transactions is a Source of Our High Profitability

10 Note: Based on 2015-16 announced deal count. Deal count and target size, both per Thomson One data as of 1/23/17

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Greenhill

High Profitability Leads to Strong Cash Flow* to Fund Dividends

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We’ve Paid ~$500mm in Dividends Since 2008, Funded

By Only 62% of Our Cash Flow

* Defined as net income plus non-cash compensation

($ in millions) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net Income $49 $71 $35 $45 $42 $47 $43 $26 $61

Non-Cash Compensation 31 40 54 53 54 56 40 46 46

Total $80 $111 $88 $97 $96 $103 $83 $72 $107

Dividends $50 $54 $57 $58 $57 $56 $56 $59 $62

Dividend Payout 62% 48% 64% 59% 59% 55% 68% 82% 58%

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Greenhill

Cash Flow in Excess of Dividends Funds Significant Share Repurchases

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% Change in Share

Count Since Q2 2004

Advisory Focused Firms

Greenhill 4%

Lazard 33%

Moelis 59%

Evercore 75%

Diversified Large Banks

BofAML 165%

Barclays 164%

Citigroup 441%

Credit Suisse 71%

Deutsche Bank 158%

Goldman Sachs (18%)

JPMorgan 77%

Morgan Stanley 67%

UBS 248%

Large Bank Average 153%

Note: Share count growth based on latest reported average fully diluted shares outstanding as of 2/2/17 (Q2 2004 to Q3 2016 or Q4 2016) (1) Share count growth based on shares outstanding since IPO Source: Company filings and releases

(1)

(1)

(1)

We bought 1.2mm,

shares / share

equivalents in

2016

Our Board has

authorized $75mm

of repurchases for

2017

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Greenhill

In Sum, We Routinely Return Far More Than 100% of Net Income to Shareholders

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$50 $54 $57 $58 $57 $56 $56 $59 $62

$22

$34 $37

$66 $83

$55

$36

$12

$28 $72

$88 $94

$123

$140

$112

$92

$71

$90

$49

$71

$35

$45 $42 $47 $43

$26

$61

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Dividends Share Repurchases Net Income

($ in millions)

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Greenhill

Reasons for Optimism Going Forward: M&A Environment Favorable

Global deal volume declined materially in 2016

– High market volatility, Brexit, etc.

Europe was particularly weak

– Number of $500mm+ deals now 54% below peak

Pro-business government in U.S. should boost activity

– Less regulation + lower taxes = increased profits / greater confidence

European activity should rebound to historical norm over time

– European M&A market ≅ U.S. market pre-crisis

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Greenhill

Announced M&A Data (European Acquiror or Target)

220

291

426

474

274

240 230

289

420

535

727

438

258

381 391 389

318

415

379

332

$575

$902

$1,597

$1,496

$740

$615

$635

$902

$1,210

$1,608

$2,271

$1,346

$706

$988

$922

$1,129

$889

$1,203

$1,300

$1,146

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Number of Transactions >$500M Total M&A Volume in $ Billions

European Deal Activity Has Yet to Recover

Note: Data as of 12/31/16; M&A Volume and number of transactions exclude withdrawn and cancelled deals Source: Thomson One 15

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Greenhill

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As the Most Globally Diversified Firm, We Should Benefit as Deal Activity Strengthens ex-U.S.

46%

73%

35%

65% 63%

76%

30%

16%

51%

14%25%

18%24%

11%15%

21%

12%6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Greenhill Evercore Lazard Moelis PJT Houlihan Lokey

Perc

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ota

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Rest of World

Europe

United States/Canada

Note: Based on 2015-16 announced deal count. Deal count and geographic allocations based on client’s nationality, both per Thomson One data as of 1/23/17

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Greenhill

Reasons for Optimism Going Forward: Adding Talent

2015: Added 5 MD recruits plus acquired Cogent Partners

2016: Added 6 MD recruits

2017: Aiming for increased MD recruiting (sectors, regions, types of

advice)

17

Internal MD Promotions Are An Additional Source

of Long Term Growth

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Greenhill

Reasons for Optimism Going Forward: Tax Cut?

U.S. corporate tax cut would be materially accretive to EPS and cash

flow

Debt would be substantially reduced

– Overseas cash brought home

Paves way for further return of capital to shareholders

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Greenhill

Our Revenue Sources Appear to be Broader Than What Analysts are Observing

Q4 EPS

September 1 Low Estimate 7¢

September 1 Consensus 29¢

Actual Q4 74¢

Q3 EPS

June 1 Low Estimate 16¢

June 1 Consensus 30¢

Actual Q3 41¢

Q2 EPS

March 1 Low Estimate 26¢

March 1 Consensus 41¢

Actual Q2 62¢

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We Have Diverse Recurring Sources of Revenue,

and a Long History of High Profitability Source: Bloomberg

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Greenhill

Greenhill Outlook for 2017

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U.S. M&A Dialogue active; Trump should be a plus

Europe M&A Should rebound to norm at some point; Brexit surprise behind us

Other Regions M&A Expect improvement vs. very light 2016

Restructuring Advisory Should improve from solid 2016

Capital Advisory Expect improvement in primary and secondary

Costs Similar compensation ratio; similar non-compensation $ costs

Taxes Low to mid 30%s; better if tax cut in U.S.