No Show 2012 - Mitchell Smallman - At Least Your Parents HAVE a Basement
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At Least Your Parents Had A Basement No Show Conference 2012
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How poor is too poor for video games? Gone are the days where a quarter got you the same play as everyone else. Millions of dollars of capital are being sunk into games for phones and tablet devices costing $600 or more, and each generation of console games are costing more and more at launch than inflation can account for. Today's market prompts many questions. Are gamers being expected to earn more than in the past? How can we ensure our development process is profitable without gearing our design the highest earners? Does our current base of developers represent those we are selling our products to effectively? This talk will cover the history of the economic class of your "average" gamer, a comparison of the markets being targeted by the current sections of the industry and the strategies being used, and some analysis of the challenges economic class plays in maintaining an creative development culture. Not all doom and gloom, this talk will also highlight positive strides in the industry in recent years, proven strategies and case studies, (yes, yet another talk with a Kickstarter section!) and as many discussions of people getting it right as discussions of the problems our industry faces.
Transcript of No Show 2012 - Mitchell Smallman - At Least Your Parents HAVE a Basement
At Least Your Parents Had A BasementNo Show Conference 2012
Things To Talk About
History Of Average Gamer
History Of Average Dev
Projections
Solutions
The Gamer
Price Points For Entry
The Gamer
Console Prices (By Hours)
Console games were luxury items, then affordable, and are recently working their way to become expensive again.
There has never been a time period where there has not been a "high end" gaming option, but low end options have often been limited.
The choices have sometimes as far apart as this:
...and this
However, wage inequality is creating an increasing gap. In only 2 of the 30 years of consoles have the lower 5th had greater gains than the median, the difference averaging $987.
Wage increases for the bottom 5th have only matched inflation 4 out of 30 years, the difference averaging to 2.6% less.(US Census Bureau)
So what?
This means that console games are getting further away from the lower class at a much higher rate than even the middle class.
Consoles are not just for the rich yet, but they are certainly not for the poor.
But wait!
What about mobile? Everyone has mobile!
Follow the money.
- Android developers earn 7% of what iPhone devs do. -The iPhone as a business is nearly twice the size of google's entire operation
-But what can WE do as Devs? Let's see who we've been first...
-Business indicates: cheaper phones are second class citizens
The Developer
Price Points For EntryEducation
Price Points for Entry (Adjusted for 2012)
80's: Apple II: $4575 (211 hours)
90's: Average 1992 PC W/Graphics Card: $3065(141 Hours)
Now: Recommended System for New Game Students: $4000+ (185 Hours)
Becoming a dev has typically not been cheap...unless you were a student, right?
-Early MUDs!-Lemmings-Prince Of Persia!-Epic Megagames!-Octodad!
Our education system must be the answer!
Oh. Oh no.
The Next Big Crash
- 1 TRILLION IN STUDENT DEBT
- We must address accreditations vs valuation of work.
- Debt financed education directs money from the lower classes to the world of finance, essentially taxing the poor.
- Better for portfolios than sub prime were because of limited bankruptcy
Not Without VALUE, just low on personal value:
-Even supportive areas, grants tied with university system
-Industry that expect relocations need accreditation for Visas
-Frequent system for INVESTOR value
Projections (Doom and Gloom Version)
-Games move further from the poor as players.-Game development requires the same economic system it always has. -Developers start further in debt with the profitability of the industry used as justification. -Games could become an industry like medicine or law, with heavy accreditations, inflated competition and immense debt.
Projections (Awesome, Lovely and Possible Version)
-Free to play opens up games to the full economic spectrum.
-The game industry gains an understanding of labour value that other industries lack due the rapid pace of change.
-Crowdsourcing could be understand by devs in a way that disrupts an upper class heavy investment system.
-Middleware dev systems eliminate entry barriers to development.
Hurdles
-Whale hunting.-We could still screw up crowdsourcing.-"War on used." This cannot hit the actual hardware. -Luxury development focus.
Solutions
- Understand F2P PLAYERS not just markets- Most community management is FREE- Middleware to schools- Knowledge based free education, purchase validations (Thanks MIT!)- ...finally...
Closing Thought:
This is the first time the average price for the tools to develop a game matches the price of the most popular systems. We have actually bridged the gap, people can make the games they are playing.
We must let the new voices in gaming know what is now within their grasp. and we must welcome them at our doors when they arrive.
