1

020359.pptp.1

April 2003ChevronTexaco Overseas Petroleum

Stanford University

Understanding Energy Flow and Policy Issues:

‘Global Distribution Of Oil, Gas and Coal’Dr. Nahum Schneidermann

The Pacific Rim

NO MATH = A GEOLOGIST = A REAL JOB?

Global Population Distribution The World at Night

2

Core Business Technology Capabilities Are Deeper and Broader

• Deepwater E&P

• Heavy oil recovery and upgrading

• Gas-to-liquidsMajor TechnologyPrograms

• Shallow wateroperations

• Next-generation global IT infrastructure

• Gasification

U.S.A. Fossil Fuels Balance

Production Exports Imports Consumption

OIL (1,000 b/d) 7,716 982 11,619 19,335

NATURAL GAS (Tcf) 19.36 0.39 4.03 23.39

COAL (MM-Tons) 1,121 48.7 19.8 1,140.8

Where is the oil coming from?

Jan-'03 %-Total Dec-'01

Saudi Arabia 1820 14 1,611

Canada 1,621 12 1,356

Mexico 1566 12 1,394

Nigeria 798 7 842

Iraq 600 5 795

U.K. 411 3 244

Venezuela 399 3 1,291

Angola 245 2 321

Kuwait 134 1 237

Colombia 120 1 260

Projected World Energy Supplies

19001900 19201920 19401940 19601960 19801980 20002000 20202020 20402040 20602060 20802080 30003000

2020

4040

6060

8080

100100100 BILLION

BARRELS

BillionBarrels

of OilEquivalent

per Year(GBOE)

BillionBarrels

of OilEquivalent

per Year(GBOE) Natural

GasNatural

Gas

HydroelectricHydroelectric

Crude OilCrude Oil

Solar, WindGeothermal

Nuclear Electric

1993

CoalCoal

Decreasing

Decreasing

Fossil FuelsFossil Fuels

New

TechnologiesN

ew Technologies

World Energy DemandWorld Energy Demand

Edwards, AAPG 8/97

Heavy + OilHeavy + Oil

Source: Ausubel, American Scientist, March-April 1996

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150

Year

Methane: H/C = 4

Coal: H/C = 1

Oil: H/C = 2

Methane Economy

Hydrogen

0.1

1

10

100

Hyd

roge

n/ca

rbon

ratio

Decarbonization

Wood H/C = 0.1

3

The Origin of PetroleumThe Origin of Petroleum

OrganicOrganic--richrichSource RockSource Rock

ThermallyThermallyMaturedMatured

Organic MatterOrganic MatterOilOil

001146.fh8

0.5

0.6 % R

1.1 % R

R

0.70.8

OilWindow= Principal Zoneof Oil Formation

Principal Zone of Gas –Condensate Formation

Principal Zone ofGas Formation

After Vassoevich et al 1975

Diagenetic Zone ofGas Formation

Generation Intensity

1.0

1.3

2.0

IncreasingDepthand

Temperature

Vitrinite Reflectance vs.Principle Generation Zones

o

o

o

Oil

Vitrinite Reflectance vs. Principle Generation Zones

Petroleum System ElementsPetroleum System Elements

24803

Source RockSource Rock

Top Seal RockTop Seal Rock

Reservoir RockReservoir Rock

Anticlinal TrapAnticlinal Trap

(Organic Rich)(Organic Rich)

(Impermeable)(Impermeable)

(Porous/Permeable)(Porous/Permeable)PotentialPotentialMigration RouteMigration Route

Known Oil Source Rocks

ExcellentGoodFair

4

Major Oil Regions

p.4020359.ppt

Proved

Prospect Database

Unproved

Contingent Resources

P1D P1U

P2 P3

P4 P5 P6Discovered Reserve Opportunity

$$

Resource MovementResource Movement

Field Appreciation

020359.ppt

p.70203

59.p

pt

100.00.11.1DENMARK99.90.11.2AZERBAIJAN99.90.11.5SHARJAH99.90.11.5CONGO REP.99.90.21.7COLOMBIA99.90.22.1ECUADOR99.90.22.5SYRIA99.90.22.5GABON99.90.32.9EGYPT99.90.33.0ARGENTINA99.60.33.5AUSTRALIA99.30.43.9OTHER C.I.S.98.90.44.0YEMEN98.50.44.0DUBAI98.10.44.3BRUNEI-MALAYSIA97.70.54.8INDIA97.20.54.8CANADA96.70.54.9U.K.96.20.55.0INDONESIA95.70.55.4KAZAKHSTAN95.20.55.4ANGOLA94.70.65.5OMAN94.10.88.4BRAZIL93.30.99.2ALGERIA92.40.99.4NORWAY 91.51.515.2QATAR90.02.222.0U.S.A.87.82.424.0NIGERIA85.42.424.0CHINA83.02.726.9MEXICO80.32.929.5LIBYA77.44.948.6RUSSIA72.57.877.6VENEZUELA64.79.089.7IRAN55.79.292.2ABU DHABI46.59.494.0KUWAIT37.111.2112.5IRAQ25.925.9259.2SAUDI ARABIA

Distribution of

2001 World

“Proved” Oil Reserves

Countries with over1B BBL Oil Reserves

12 Countrieshold 90 % of theWorld’s ProvedOil Reserves

COUNTRY 2001 WORLD OILRESERVES (1,025.9 B bbl)

PERCENT OFTOTAL

CUMULATIVEPERCENT

020359.ppt

Bill

ion

Bar

rels

0

25

50

75

100

125

DE

NM

AR

KA

ZER

BA

IJA

NC

ON

GO

RE

P.

SH

AR

JAH

CO

LOM

BIA

EC

UA

DO

RG

AB

ON

SYR

IAE

GYP

TA

RG

EN

TIN

AA

US

TRA

LIA

OTH

ER

C.I.

S.

DU

BA

IYE

ME

NBR

UNEI

-MAL

AYSI

AC

AN

AD

AIN

DIA

U. K

.IN

DO

NE

SIA

KA

ZAK

HS

TAN

AN

GO

LAO

MA

NB

RA

ZIL

ALG

ER

IAN

OR

WA

YQ

ATA

RU

.S.A

.N

IGE

RIA

CH

INA

ME

XIC

OLI

BYA

RU

SS

IAV

EN

EZU

ELA

IRA

NA

BU

DH

AB

IK

UW

AIT

IRA

QS

AU

DI A

RA

BIA

259.2

p.80203

59.p

pt

2001Oil Reservesfor Countries(Countries with

>1Bbbl OilReserves)

5

020359.pptp.9

2001 Production Maturity Index(Produced / D.T.D.)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

ABU DHABISHARJAH

IRAQYEMEN

KUWAITSAUDI ARABIA

QATARIRAN

BRAZILVENEZUELA

CONGO REPUBLICLIBYA

ANGOLADUBAI

NIGERIAGABONCHINAINDIAOMAN

DENMARKECUADORALGERIAMEXICO

SYRIANORWAY

AUSTRALIARUSSIA

BRUNEI-MALAYSIAARGENTINA

EGYPTCOLOMBIA

AZERBAIJANKAZAKHSTAN

INDONESIAU.K.

CANADAOTHER C.I.S.

U.S.A.

Maturity Index %020359.ppt

p.10

2001 Daily Oil Production(Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

SHARJAHDUBAI

AZERBAIJANCONGO REP.

GABONDENMARK

YEMENECUADOR

OTHER C.I.S.SYRIA

KAZAKHSTANCOLOMBIA

AUSTRALIAINDIA

QATARANGOLA

EGYPTARGENTINA

ALGERIABRUNEI-

OMANBRAZIL

INDONESIALIBYA

ABU DHABIKUWAIT CANADANIGERIA

U. K.IRAQ

VENEZUELAMEXICO

NORWAYCHINA

IRANU.S.A.

RUSSIASAUDI

M il l io n B ar re ls / D ay

020359.pptp.12

2001 Global Oil(Reserves / Production Ratio)

OIL RESERVES (1,026 Bbbls)

ProductionRate at

24Bbbls / year

2001

43 years

2043

UndiscoveredReserves ?

020359.pptp.13

2001 Oil R/P Ratio(Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves)

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175

U. K.CANADA

COLOMBIANORWAY

DENMARKU.S.A.

ARGENTINAEGYPT

INDONESIABRUNEI-

SYRIAAZERBAIJAN

ECUADORAUSTRALIA

OMANCONGOBRAZILCHINAINDIA

ANGOLARUSSIA*GABON

MEXICOOTHER C.I.S.*KAZAKHSTAN

ALGERIAYEMEN

NIGERIADUBAILIBYA

QATARIRAN

SHARJAHVENEZUELA

SAUDI ARABIAKUWAIT

IRAQABU DHABI

Years Remaining

6

020359.pptp.14

Year to Which 2001 Production Level is Sustainable(Countries with > 1 B bbl Oil Reserves)

2001 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125 2150 2175

CANADAU. K.

COLOMBIANORWAY

DENMARKARGENTINA

EGYPTU.S.A.

INDONESIAAZERBAIJAN

SYRIABRUNEI-

OMANAUSTRALIAECUADOR

CONGOBRAZIL

INDIACHINA

GABONRUSSIA*ANGOLAMEXICO

OTHER C.I.S.*KAZAKHSTAN

YEMENALGERIANIGERIA

DUBAILIBYA

QATARIRAN

SHARJAHVENEZUELA

SAUDI ARABIAKUWAIT

IRAQABU DHABI

Year

020359.pptp.15

Crude Oil Reserves of the United States(2001) Reserves vs. Production Ratio

.

30

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Billion Barrels Ratio

Reserve Production Ratio25

20

15

10

5

0

30

25

20

15

10

5

01999 2000 2001

020359.pptp.16

OPEC vs. Non-OPEC 2001 Oil Well Producers(Number of Producing Oil Wells)

539,75460,89872,25553,30215,27714,238

8,5356,8883,3862,9912,492

1,6851,567

SAUDI ARABIALIBYAU.A.E.U.K.AUSTRALIAEGYPTALGERIAIRANECUADORKUWAITNORWAYANGOLAQATARGABON

1,5601,4701,4551,4301,3921,3291,2841,1201,041

790742561417375

OPEC (Countries)Non-OPEC (Countries)

U.S.A.C.I.S.CHINACANADAVENEZUELAARGENTINAINDONESIABRAZILINDIAMEXICOCOLOMBIA

2,298OMAN2,374NIGERIA

IRAQBRUNEI - MALAYSIA

2,374NIGERIA2,298OMAN

Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia includes PNZ.

020359.pptp.17

OPEC Countries 2001 Oil Production Comparison(Barrels / Day / Well)

SAUDI ARABIAIRANKUWAITQATARIRAQU.A.E.LIBYANIGERIAALGERIAVENEZUELAINDONESIA

5,0753,3002,5851,6111,3971,390

928877651184142

Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia includes PNZ

7

020359.pptp.18

Non - OPEC Countries 2001 Oil Production Comparison(Barrels / Day / Well)

NORWAYU.K.ANGOLAMEXICOGABONBRUNEI-MALAYSIAEGYPTAUSTRALIAOMANECUADORCOLOMBIAINDIABRAZILC.I.S.ARGENTINACHINACANADAU.S.A.

5,2891,7231,4221,007

872611552512406377224186164

5752454010

Petroleum ProductsPetroleum Products

Gasoline Gasoline -- 19.5 gallons19.5 gallons

One Barrel of Crude Oil Provides:One Barrel of Crude Oil Provides:

Fuel Oil Fuel Oil -- 9.2 gallons9.2 gallons

Jet Fuel Jet Fuel -- 4.1 gallons4.1 gallons

Asphalt Asphalt -- 2.3 gallons2.3 gallons

Kerosene Kerosene -- 0.2 gallons0.2 gallons

Lubricants Lubricants -- 0.5 gallons0.5 gallons

Petrochemicals,Petrochemicals,other products other products -- 6.2 gallons6.2 gallons

One Barrel =One Barrel =42 gallons42 gallons

American Petroleum Institute, American Petroleum Institute, 19991999

Petrochemical ProductsPetrochemical Products

•• Detergents Detergents -- CosmeticsCosmetics•• Fertilizers Fertilizers -- Weed KillersWeed Killers•• Medicine Medicine -- Antiseptics Antiseptics -- AnestheticsAnesthetics•• Plastics Plastics -- Synthetic FibersSynthetic Fibers•• Synthetic RubberSynthetic Rubber•• Rust PreventativesRust Preventatives•• Liquid Petroleum GasLiquid Petroleum Gas

American Petroleum Institute, American Petroleum Institute, 19991999

More Than 3,000 ProductsMore Than 3,000 Products

020359.pptp.26

North America Oil Production & Consumption ofRefined Products 1990 - 2000

18000

0

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

20000

Consumption of Refined ProductsCrude Oil Production

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19991990 2000

8

020359.pptp.27

Latin America Oil Production & Consumption ofRefined Products 1990 - 2000

9000

0

8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

10000

Consumption of Refined ProductsCrude Oil Production

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19991990 2000

020359.ppt

Western Europe Oil Production & Consumption ofRefined Products 1990 - 2000

14000

0

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

Consumption of Refined ProductsCrude Oil Production

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19991990 2000

020359.ppt

Africa Oil Production & Consumption ofRefined Products 1990 - 2000

7000

0

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

Consumption of Refined ProductsCrude Oil Production

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19991990 2000

020359.ppt

Middle East Oil Production & Consumption ofRefined Products 1990 - 2000

20000

0

18000

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

22000

Consumption of Refined ProductsCrude Oil Production

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19991990 2000

9

020359.pptp.31

Asia & Far East Oil Production & Consumption ofRefined Products 1990 - 2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Consumption of Refined ProductsCrude Oil Production

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 19991990 2000

020359.pptp.20

Major Gas Regions

Regional Gas Price Chart

WTI

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

Jan-99

May-99

Sep-99

Jan-00

May-00

Sep-00

Jan-01

May-01

Sep-01

Jan-02

US$

/mm

btu

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

US$

/bbl

HH Index Troll Zeebrugge Japan LNG CIF Thailand HH Index Troll Zeebrugge

Japan LNG CIF Thailand WTI Mid ($/bbl) WTI Mid ($/bbl)

WTI

Major Gas Pipelines

10

020359.ppt

CUMULATIVEPERCENT

2001 WORLD GASRESERVES (5364.7 Tcf)

PERCENT OF TOTAL

COUNTRY

p.70203

59.p

pt

100.00.210.0MYANMAR (BURMA)99.80.210.6BANGLADESH99.60.210.7SHARJAH99.40.212.1GERMANY99.20.212.2PAPUA NEW GUINEA99.00.212.7THAILAND98.80.316.9YEMEN98.50.422.8INDIA98.10.523.4TRINIDAD97.60.524.0BOLIVIA97.10.525.0PAKISTAN96.60.625.9U.K.96.00.627.5ARGENTINA95.40.629.3OMAN94.80.629.5MEXICO94.20.635.2EGYPT93.60.844.0NORWAY92.80.946.4LIBYA91.90.948.3CHINA91.00.952.2KUWAIT90.11.159.7CANADA89.01.262.5NETHERLANDS87.81.265.0KAZAKHSTAN86.61.688.8BRUNEI-MALAYSIA 85.01.790.0AUSTRALIA83.31.792.5INDONESIA81.62.0109.8IRAQ79.62.3124.0NIGERIA77.32.7147.6VENEZUELA74.63.0159.7ALGERIA71.63.3177.4U.S.A.68.33.6196.1ABU DHABI64.74.1219.0SAUDI ARABIA60.64.3233.4OTHER C.I.S.56.39.5508.5QATAR46.815.1812.0IRAN31.731.71700.0RUSSIA

Distribution of

2001 World

“Proved” Gas Reserves

Countries with over10 Tcf Gas Reserves

17 Countrieshold over

90 % of theWorld’s ProvedGas Reserves

020359.pptp.23

2001 Yearly Gas Production(Countries with > 10 TCF Gas Reserves)

0 5 10 15 20 25

SHARJAHYEMEN

PAPUA N. GUINEABANGLADESH

MYANMAR (BURMA)IRAQ

BOLIVIALIBYAOMAN

NIGERIAKUWAIT

TRINIDADEGYPT

THAILANDGERMANY

ABU DHABIQATAR

PAKISTANCHINA

VENEZUELAINDIA

AUSTRALIAARGENTINA

SAUDI ARABIAMEXICO

IRANBRUNEI-MALAYSIA

NORWAYINDONESIA

NETHERLANDSALGERIA

U. K.CANADA

U.S.A.C.I.S.

Tri l l io n Cu b ic Feet / Year

Data Source: Oil & Gas Journal, et. al.

Note: Kuwait and Saudi Arabia production and/or numberof wells, include half of Neutral Zone area.

020359.pptp.24

2001 Gas R/P Ratio(Countries with > 50 TCF Gas Reserves)

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

CANADAU.S.A.

NETHERLANDSOTHER C.I.S.

INDONESIABRUNEI-MALAYSIA

ALGERIAAUSTRALIA

RUSSIASAUDI ARABIA

VENEZUELAKUWAIT

KAZAKHSTANABU DHABI

IRANNIGERIA

QATARIRAQ

Years Remaining

020359.pptp.25

Natural Gas Reserves of the United States(2001) Reserves vs. Production Ratio

200

150

100

50

01990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

20

15

10

5

0

Trillion Cubic Feet Ratio

Reserve Production Ratio

1999 2000 2001

11

Gas

Distribution

Large Industrial

Pipeline

E & P

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Power Gen

Transmission

Power Generation

Natural Gas Value Chain

Distribution020359.ppt

OIL(Billion Barrels)

GAS(Trillion Cubic Feet)

North America

South America

Europe

Africa

Middle East

Far East

53.7

94.3

77.1

76.5

680.8

43.5

266.6

250.3

2168.1

381.9

1971.8

429.4

44.4

41.7

361.3

63.6

328.6

71.6

BOE(Barrels,Oil Equiv. of Gas)

WORLD TOTALS5468.1911.31025.9

p.37

World Oil & Gas Proven ReservesTo January 1, 2001

Coal Reserves Showing Regional Shares(at end of 1998)

Source: BP Amoco

Major Coal Producing & Consuming Countries

Producers 2001 Exports (2000)* Consumers 2001 Imports

(2000)*China 1,459 60 China 1,383 United States 1,121 58 United States 1,060 13 Australia 357 206 India 360 India 339 Russia 284 Russia 300 Germany 265 South Africa 250 77 South Africa 177 Germany 226 Japan 166 160 Poland 179 18 Poland 151 North Korea 105 Australia 144 Indonesia 100 63 North Korea 105 Ukraine 90 Ukraine 94

World 5,266 604 World 5,263 600

(Million Short Tons)

Source: EIA International Energy Annual 2001Includes all ranks of coal.

12

Major Trade Routes, 1998(million tons per annum)

Source: IEA

General globalCoal Resources

Major World Thermal Coal & Coking Coal Exporters

Global Hard Coal Consumptionin 1997 – 3755 Mt

Source: IEA

Generating Electricity from Coal

Coal Supply

Conveyor

Pulveriser/Mill

Ash Systems Water Purification

Boiler

Stack

Electricity

Condenser

Substation /transformer

Steam turbine

Generator

Source: IEA

13

Source: IEA

Electricity Consumption – MWh per capita

Source: WEC

Source: IEA

More Generating Capacity is Fueled by Gas

Natural Gas

Renewables

Petroleum

Source: EIA AEO2003

-500

500

1500

2500

3500

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

billi

on K

Wh

Coal

Nuclear

Projected• Natural gas units

expected to dominate new and replacement capacity additions

• Gas captures additional 13% of the power market by 2025

• Coal will remain the primary fuel for electricity generation

14

Gas –The Shape Of Things To Come

Source: GHK Company

Wood & hay

1997Hydrogen

solids

Petroleum oil Actual gas consumption Actual liquids consumption Actual solids consumption

“City Gas”

Whale oil Natural gas

Oil & hydroelectric

Coal & nuclear

liquids

Oil & natural

gasliquids

Natural gas

gases

Global Energy Systems Transition Percent Of Market

0

20

40

60

80

100

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150