UNDERSTANDING YOUR MARKET FOR REDEVELOPMENTSUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTYMARCH 10, 2017

1987 Somerset County Master Plan Land Use Management Map

OVERVIEW

2014 Somerset County Master Plan County Investment Framework Map

OVERVIEW

OVERVIEWCounty Investment Framework Goals Support ongoing regional and local smart growth,

preservation, economic revitalization, sustainability and resiliency planning initiatives

Achieve tactical alignment of land use, infrastructure and preservation plans, resources, programs, policies and investment decisions

Convey a clear investment message regarding local and regional land use priorities to both public and private sectors

Somerset County Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy

Supporting Priority Investment in Somerset County through Access and Mobility Improvements

Supporting Priority Investment in Somerset County Phases I,II, and III

OVERVIEW

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 1KEY FINDINGS Socio-economic Analysis Improvement to Land Value Analysis Labor and Industry Analysis Business Inventory and Industry Cluster Analysis Real Estate Supply and Demand Analysis Transportation and Utility Infrastructure Analysis Baseline Conditions: Land Use Assessment of Land Use Policies & Workforce Housing Build-out Analysis

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 1SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Household and population growth flat through 2018 Demand for Senior and multi-family housing dominates Median Household Income is among the highest in the NationIMPROVEMENT TO LAND VALUE ANALYSIS: Low ILV Commercial land comprise 18% of all Commercial

acreage and Industrial Land comprise 17% of all Industrial acreage within PGIAs. Low ILV Low ILV Concentrations occur in the following PGIAs: I-287 Industrial Complex, Franklin Meister Ave. /North Branch Station, Branchburg VA Depot, Hillsborough

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 1LABOR AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS Unemployment rates lower than the State, but still higher

than pre-recession levels New jobs will come from replacement openings, rather than

new job creation Growth in the health care and social assistance industry will

grow fastestBUSINESS INVENTORY AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS Over 80% of available and rentable commercial, office and

industrial space falls within PGIAs The highest number of large businesses & facilities are found

in the Regional Center, Green Brook Route 22 Corridor and Hamilton St./Renaissance Area

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 1REAL ESTATE SUPPLY & DEMAND: RESIDENTIAL Demand for new units is expected to exceed the number of new units to

be constructed in the future Demand for smaller, entry-level multi-family and rental housing will grow Delivery of workforce housing is dependent on local land use policies, and

is an economic development imperativeREAL ESTATE SUPPLY & DEMAND: OFFICE Office Vacancy Rate in Somerset County rose to 26.6 % in 2013, exceeding

surrounding areas The existing inventory of office space should more than satisfy new

demand, assuming it can be reconfigured to meet today’s smaller space requirements

A 20% vacancy rate is projected for 2015

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 1REAL ESTATE SUPPLY & DEMAND: INDUSTRY Vacancy rate is lower than in surrounding central and north

Jersey counties Large and growing industrial space inventory with an overall

vacancy rate of 5.7% REAL ESTATE SUPPLY & DEMAND: RETAIL 7.3 million sq. ft. of retail space Countywide The projected combined vacancy rate for retail space is above

10 percent for 2017, and currently exceeds that of nearby counties

As retail space becomes obsolescent, repurposing strategies will be needed

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 1ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE POLICIES & WORKFORCE HOUSING Complex PGIAs with diverse zoning districts may have a

combination of both adequate and inadequate zoning policies PGIA-specific recommendations include increasing FAR and/or

residential densities and mixed-use opportunitiesBUILDOUT ANALYSIS Additional capacity for growth exists in all PGIAs – but at

different levels Redevelopment and re-use represents the greatest potential

for new residential growth Development of vacant land represents the greatest

opportunity for commercial and industrial growth within PGIAs

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 2Market Assessment Based on CoStar data, demographics and employment data Assessment of land use categories and vacancy rates Analysis of office vacancy, job growth, absorption rates Comparison to 5 surrounding counties Evaluate market trends Identify opportunities for targeted development

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 2Office and Retail

Vacancy among the highest in region Projected employment growth lower than all but Union

Co. Currently available vacancies exceed demand through

2035 Points to need for innovative strategies for re-use

Mixed-use and restaurant uses Account for smallest share of space, but lowest vacancy Vacancy rates low throughout the region Region-wide opportunity

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 2Warehousing and Light Industry Accounts for 23.6% of rentable space in Somerset Lacks connections to NJ Turnpike of nearby counties Middlesex dominates regional warehousing market Somerset positioned for small industry and warehousing Somerset has 2nd lowest warehousing vacancy rateManufacturing Accounts for 10.4% of rentable area Comparable to surrounding counties

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 2

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 2

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 3Market Assessment

Source: REIS 2016

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 3Market Assessment

Source: REIS 2016

SUPPORTING PRIORITY INVESTMENT IN SOMERSET COUNTY: PHASE 3

IMPLEMENTATION SUCCESS STORIES Outlined a Consensus Vision for Somerset County’s

Future Resources and Information to Inform Local Decision

Makers Strengthened Linkages Between Master Plan

Elements and Planning Initiatives Municipal Master Plan and Zoning Ordinance

Reviews and Updates Leveraged Additional Grant Resources

QUESTIONS?

For more information, please contact:

Walter C. Lane, AICP/PPDirector of Planning

Somerset County Planning Division(908) 231-7021

lane@co.somerset.nj.us