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Nitrogen boundaries global and regional perspectives€¦ · Nitrogen boundaries – global and...
Transcript of Nitrogen boundaries global and regional perspectives€¦ · Nitrogen boundaries – global and...
November 2015
Dr Sarah Cornell
Nitrogen boundaries – global and regional perspectives
Climate and Clean Air Commission, Vienna The Nitrogen Cascade
• Environmental change is global, not just local
– we are all part of the system
• Boundaries are system features
• The system is unavoidably human
• Nitrogen boundaries are unavoidably complex
Foley et al. 2005. Global consequences of land use. Science 309, 570-574 doi: 10.1126/science.1111772
Pastures and rangelands Croplands
Land cover is changing
http://www.unep.org/dewa/ vitalwater/article42.html
Water use is changing
Declining availability
Increasing withdrawals
Ecosystems all around the world are changing
WWF 2006 State of the world’s natural land habitats
Bounford.com and UNEP/GRID-Arendal, www.grida.no/graphicslib 1522.
Ecosystems all around the world are changing
WWF 2006 State of the world’s natural land habitats
Bounford.com and UNEP/GRID-Arendal, www.grida.no/graphicslib 1522.
“…large-scale loss of biodiversity is likely to occur in a 4°C world, with climate change and high CO2 driving a transition of the Earth's ecosystems
into a state unknown in human experience.” World Bank “Turn down the heat” 2012
https://www.vets.ucar.edu/vg/NGCM/movies/ngcm_co2so2.mpg
The chemistry of the atmosphere is changing
Excellent animations of model output and satellite data here: https://www.vets.ucar.edu/vg/categories/chemistry.shtml
Visualization and Enabling Technologies Section, UCAR: https://www.vets.ucar.edu/vg/index.shtml
https://youtu.be/d8sHvhLvfBo IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policy Makers 2015 - www.climatechange2013.org
Earth’s physical climate is changing
Gruber & Galloway 2008. An Earth-system perspective of the global nitrogen cycle. Nature 451, 293-296, doi:10.1038/nature06592.
Biogeochemical cycles are changing
Human perturbation
Atmosphere
Land Ocean
Image: ©
Edw
ard Elgar 2
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‘Planetary Boundaries’ – red alerts on a global dashboard
Rockström and 27 co-authors (2009) ‘A Safe Operating Space for Humanity’: research article in Ecology & Society, discussion article in Nature.
Steffen and 17 co-authors (2015) ’Planetary Boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet’: published in Science www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1259855
Urgent issues – Bend these curves!
• Climate change and ocean acidification (mainly due to CO2 emission)
• Biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation
• Perturbed biogeochemical cycling (release of N and P)
• Land use and land cover change
• Systemic chemical pollution
• Freshwater abstraction
• Altered atmospheric physics and chemistry (aerosol loading, stratospheric ozone)
• Interacting pressures, building up fast
Climate
change
Biodiversityloss
PerturbedN&Pcycles
Chemic
alpollu
on
Wateruse
Landtransform
aon
Oceanacidificaon
Atmosphericaerosols
The planetary boundaries concept builds on knowledge about global processes
that already present global risks
Issue Global assessments Policy structures
Climate change
IPCC AR 1990, 1995, 2001, 2007, 2014; SRES; UNHDR…
IPCC, UNFCCC SBSTA Many international conventions
Ecosystem change
MA 2005; CBD GBO1-3; UNEP GEO1-5; TEEB; FAO…
IPBES and CBD SBSTTA CBD, CITES, other conventions
Biogeochemical change
UNEP GPNM 2013; WMO/IAEA/UNEP GESAMP
INI, GPNM, WHO, FAO, WMO, IPCC, GPRI. Several conventions.
Chemical pollution
UNEP AMAP and other regional
SETAC, SCI, WHO-IFCS, Many conventions.
Nykvist et al. (2013) National responsibility (SEPA/SEI/SRC); Cornell and Downing (2014) Environment, Absolute?
• Global perspective – flagging the need to assess and respond to human perturbations
• Planetary concerns – an ‘Earth system’ view (with a social-ecological resilience slant)
• Precautionary – using scientific insight to set ‘safe operating boundaries’ to avoid disruptive risks
Why has the concept captured international attention?
Current approaches – and dilemmas – in quantifying nitrogen boundaries
• Rockström et al. (2009): N = 35 Tg N fixation yr-1
• de Vries, W. et al. (2013): N = 20-130 Tg N fixation yr-1 (depending on concern)
• Steffen et al. (2015): N to avoid eutrophication = 62 Tg N yr-1, N based on P = 73 Tg N yr-1
• Seitzinger et al. (IARU/in review): 250 Tg N fixation yr-1
• Running S (2012) - increases in NPP are possible with less (not more) nutrient and water application
• Dearing et al. (2013) – regional boundaries could be defined taking regional thresholds into account
• Carpenter, S. and Bennett, E. (2011) – several approaches to boundary setting might need to be used together
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Critical N or P
fixation
Critical N or P
concentrations
Critical N or P losses
Back-c
alc
ula
tion
Forw
ard
-calc
ula
tion
Different methodologies can and will be used
De Vries et al. 2013
But methodologies (and boundaries)
also depend on the definition of the system
Rockström et al 2009: ‘Turn off the tap’ of anthropogenic perturbation
De Vries et al 2013: Avoid the worst impacts of anthropogenic perturbation
World Hunger (ourworldindata.org)
Seitzinger (and de Vries et al 2013): Meet global demand for food
The ‘Bretherton Diagram’ (ESSC NASA Advisory Council1988) What is the ‘Earth system’?
Physical dynamics
Biologically mediated dynamics
Integration Predictive power
Assessing global budgets (with models too)
Modelling global dynamics (with data too)
Biogeochemical cycling information – many types, many scales, many uses
(Cornell and Downing/PTB (2014) - Quality infrastructure of global change science)
Timeframes of data acquisition
Spat
ial s
cale
s o
f in
form
atio
n
Many are now calling for a global nutrient assessment. www.nine-esf.org/ENA, www.initrogen.org/sites/default/files/documents/files/ONW.pdf
The Nitrogen ‘Planetary Boundary’ – Steffen et al. 2015
High spatial heterogeneity – N use, impacts, risks
Living processes make prediction difficult – and human decision-making makes prediction unreliable
• All available information is still not enough Complex dynamic systems need plural, responsive sensing.
• Both local and global processes matter Both need to be understood – but methods designed for the local level may fit poorly with methods for tracking systemic change at the global level.
• Ecosystem change is now a human process People need to participate in ecological assessments, and ecosystems need to be explicitly included in societal assessments.
• Human wellbeing depends on ecological integrity Ecological change on today’s scale has consequences for societies. (And most projected ecological equilibria in the context of current ecosystem change are hardly desirable states for human beings.)
Precaution – Provisionality – Participation
Literature:
Rockström et al. (2009) Planetary boundaries: exploring the safe operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. http://www. ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32 (and discussion article in Nature).
Steffen et al. (2015) Planetary Boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet. Science www.sciencemag.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1259855
de Vries, W. et al. (2013) Assessing planetary boundaries related to food security and adverse environmental impacts. COSUST 5: 392–402
Running S (2012) A measurable planetary boundary for the biosphere. Science 337 1458-1459
Dearing et al. (2013) Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems. Global Environmental Change 28 227-238
Carpenter, S. and Bennett, E. (2011) Reconsideration of the planetary boundary for phosphorus. Environmental Research Letters. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014009
Cornell S.E. and Downing A.S. (2014) Environment Absolute? Quality infrastructure of global change science. PTB/Stockholm Resilience Centre.
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Science Policy Decision
landscape Climate Earth system
knowledge, local gaps
Global agreement on targets
and metrics
Big science
Biodiversity Local knowledge, system gaps
Global agreement on targets
and metrics
Concerned coalitions
Biogeochemistry Gaps in local and system knowledge
Partial regional agreements,
emerging issue
Many different players
Chemical pollution Local knowledge, system gaps
Partial agreements, weak metrics
Big business
Science for real world use?
Strong policy interest in ‘safe operating space’ science: UN GSP’s ‘Resilient People, Resilient Planet’ (2012), UN Rio+20, UNEP GEO5 (2012), national assessments (Sweden, Switzerland, South Africa, Germany), EEAC discussions, LCA
researchers, green investors, UN Sustainable Development Goals (planetary boundaries processes are the focus of goals 6, 13 and 15, others are included in targets for goals 3, 11, 12, 13 and 14)
Cornell and Downing (2014) Environment, Absolute? (PTB)