LECTURE L03EXPONENTIAL WORLD

“Everything that can be invented has been invented”

- Purportedly said by Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899

http://wallpoper.com/

1899

Alternating Current Power Plant at World's Fair, Chicago, 1893.

TECHNOLOGY AT THE DAWN OF THE 20TH CENTURY

Now explain to someone technology today

TECHNOLOGY AT THE DAWN OF THE 21ST CENTURY

OUR VIEW ON TECHNOLOGY IS VERY CONTEMPORARY

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic

- Arthur C. Clark’s 3rd Law

CENTURY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

RadioMessages

Airplanes

Ice lollyFord

model T

Talking pictures

Zipper

Stainlesssteel

Tanks

PenicillinFM Radio

Computers

Nuclear fission

Ballistic missile

Transistor

Atom bomb

Solar battery

PC

Integrated circuit

Video game

consoles

GUIs

TVARPANET

Laser

Altair

CD-ROM

Mosaic

DVD

WWW

Internet

VCR

Digital cameras

Satellites

Mircochip

“He was the pre-eminent scientist in a century dominated by science. The

touchstones of the era — the Bomb, the Big Bang, quantum physics and

electronics — all bear his imprint.”

special theory of relativity

model of the atom

discovery of the electron

theory of continental drift

nuclear chain reaction

discovery of the positron, neutron

big bang theoryquantum theory

uncertainty principle

COMPLEXITY OF TECHNOLOGY

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

Product Development

Mainframe

1947

Minicomputer

1965

PC

1981 1995

Internet Smartphone

2007

Waves of technologies

Product Development

Products that are built based on older technologies follow a specific path from initial idea to a mature stable product

The S-curveBased on the notion of the Technical Life Cycle

Improvements in performance varies

throughout the life of the technology

Improvements in performance varies

throughout the life of the technology

Problem is that people in the R&D phase may

not be right in the growth phase

The S-curve

Exponential trends can be composed of

a sequence of S-curves where each

curve is faster

The S-curve

Exponential trends can be composed of

a sequence of S-curves where each

curve is faster

The S-curve

Technology Life Cycle

Describes the commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life"

In the early days The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market

In the later days The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market

Technology Life Cycle

THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION

IBM System/360

360/20 with 24K of memory

Computers in 1964

Transistor, 1947

Vacuum tube, 1904

THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION

THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION

Transistor, 1947

Integrated circuit, 1959

Intel 4004, 1971

Vacuum tube, 1904

THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION

Gordon Moore published an article in 1965 called “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits”

Number of transistors onan integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months

Moore’s Law

Number of transistors onan integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months

Moore’s Law

Technological growthaccelerates

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

The Fifth Paradigm

1977 Apple II $1,298 4000 bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz

2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1GB memory Intel 2.0GHz

30 years of product improvements

iPad 2 as fast as Cray 2 supercomputer, fraction of the size

Readmore:http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4

Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011

30 years of product improvements

Slow growth in the beginning than accelerates

Exponential Growth

IF PRODUCT PERFORMANCE DOUBLES EVERY YEAR

IN 10 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000 FOLD INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE

IN 30 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000,000,000 FOLD INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE

Flickrpicturebyspwelton

SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD

The Legend of theAmbalappuzha Paal Payasam

The total amount of rice required to fill a 64-squared chess board is (2^ (64) - 1), which is equal to 18446744073709551615 grains

460 billion tons

Number of transistors onan integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months

Moore’s Law

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

COMPUTERS WILL BE FASTER

COMPUTERS WILL BE SMALLER

COMPUTERS WILL BE CHEAPER

THINGS THAT ONCE WHERE IMPOSSIBLE BECOME POSSIBLE

From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009

And from 2009 to 2014

ANY NEW TECHNOLOGYTHAT COMES TO THE MARKETIS LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 10 YEARS OLD

Source:http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/id2008012_297369.htm

Bill Buxton’s Long nose of Innovation

The Long Nose of Innovation

Growth ofTechnology

Evolutionary processes – both biology and technology, tend to a c c e l e r a t e

Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from TED.com)

PLANS USUALLY ASUMELINAR GROWTH

DESIGN PRODUCTS WITH TECHNOLOGY OFTHE FUTURE IN MIND

TECHNOLOGICAL PREDICTIONS ARE USUALLY RIGHT, JUST WRONG IN TIME

MOST PRODUCTS FAIL BECAUSE ALL THE ENABLING FACTORS ARE IN PLACE WHEN NEEDED

The Law of Accelerating Returns

Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.

“An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is

exponential, contrary to the common-sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000

years of progress (at today's rate).”

- Ray Kurzweil

Working in an exponential industry with a liner view is deadly

Disruption

Peter Diamandis, Zeitgeist 2012

Finance Healthcare Retail

Transportation Education

?Any industry

Disruptive stress oropportunity

Growth of technology

Our view of the world

DISRUPTIVE STRESS

TECHNOLOGY IS CAUSING PROBLEMSESTABLISHED COMPANIES ARE THREATENEDBUSINESS MODELS BECOME IRRELEVANTLAWS BECOME USELESS

DISRUPTIVE OPPURTINTY

NEVER BEFORE IN HISTORY HAS SOME MUCH OPPORTUNITY BE AVAILABLE TOSO MANY PEOPLE

Is this evolution of technology good?

Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral

Kranzberg’s 1. law of technology

Why did smartwatches appear in 2014when the idea came in the 50s

QUESTION

Adjacent Possible

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