New Product ForecastingTips and Tools

Kenneth B. Kahn, Ph.D.Professor & Avrum and Joyce Gray Director

Burton D. Morgan Center for EntrepreneurshipPurdue University

1201 West State StreetWest Lafayette, Indiana 47907-2057765-496-3223; FAX 765-494-9870

kbkahn@purdue.edu

Kenneth B. Kahn Ph.D.

Kenneth B. Kahn Ph.D.

Experience- and Research-Based Prescriptions

There is no silver bullet when it comes to new product forecasting.

New product forecasting success results from data, experience, cross-functional communication, business knowledge, and being connected to the customer.

Participation of analytical business functions like demand planning correlate to a more accurate, satisfying forecast.

New product forecasting requires reconciliation of multiple techniques based on judgment and analytical skills. However, the greater the number of techniques used does not simply increase new product forecast accuracy nor satisfaction.

New product forecasting is an assumptions management process.

Think in terms of ranges, not specific numbers.

Kenneth B. Kahn Ph.D.

Program Agenda

9:00 - 10:20a: New Product Forecasting Issues and Considerations

10:20 - 10:40a: Break

10:40a - 12:00p: Judgmental New Product Forecasting Techniques (Part I)

12:00 - 1:00p: Lunch

1:00 - 2:20p: Judgmental New Product Forecasting Techniques (Part II)

2:20 - 2:40p: Break

2:40 - 4:00p: Quantitative New Product Forecasting Techniques

4:00 - 4:15p: Break

4:15 - 5:00p: New Product Forecasting Best Practices and Next Steps