New North Summit 2007
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Transcript of New North Summit 2007
Edward E. Gordon www.imperialcorp.com
New North Summit 2007Edward E. GordonKeynote Address:
“More & Better: Preventing a Workforce Meltdown”
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The Education-to-Employment System is
brokenbroken
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“More & Better:Preventing a Workforce Meltdown”
Agenda
Part I: 2010 IssuesPart II. 2010 Solutions &
Opportunities
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AgendaPart I: 2010 Issues
1. Demographics2. Technology3. “The Unflat World” ― Education Critical Mass4. Help Wanted: Worldwide5. Current Solutions “Shopping the World”
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U.S. Workforce between 2010 & 2025• Baby Boomers − 79 million Americans
born 1946-64 retire• Generation X − 40 million Americans
born 1965-77 − Less job ready than baby boomers
• Generation Y − 70 million Americans born 1977-95 − Less job ready than prior generations
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Change in U.S. Population2000-2020
7 5 7 -10 3
73
54
-100
1020304050607080
Percent
Under14
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 &older
Age GroupSource: U.S. Census Bureau
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Wisconsin UnemploymentOctober 2007
5.2%
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United States Manufacturing 2005
#1 in Value of Manufactured Products (Double China’s)
61% of U.S. Exports
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit
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3. Education Critical Mass
The Unflat World
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PISA Math Scores of 15-year-oldsSelected Countries
460 480 500 520 540 560
Italy
U.S.
Hungary
Canada
Japan
Korea
Finland
Source: OECD, 2006 (PISA 2003 data from 29 nations)
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Wisconsin High SchoolDrop-Outs Age 18-64
317,194 (9.3%)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005
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Wisconsin High SchoolDrop-Outs Age 18-24
78,899 (15.6%)Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005
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Wisconsin State High School Graduation Rates(U.S. average = 73%)
All WI Students 77.3%Asian 74.8%Hispanic 53.6%Black 44.8%White 82.6%Source: EPE Research Center, 2007
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II. Adults
90+ Million American WorkersLack
ReadingWriting
MathSkills to do their jobs properly
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National Adult Literacy Assessments1993/2003 Prose Results Compared
Adult Pop. 2003Categories ’93%/’03% Total 222 Million I. Below Basic 14/14 31MII. Basic 28/29 64M (95M)III. Intermediate 43/44 98M(Moderately Challenging)
IV. Proficient 15/13 29M
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New North CountiesPercent of Adults at Level 1 Literacy
Brown 11% Marquette 19%Calumet 9% Menominee 10%Door 13% Oconto 16%Florence N/A Outagamie 11%Fond du Lac 11% Shawano 15%Green Lake 14% Sheboygan 13%Kewaunee 12% Waupaca 14%Manitowoc 13% Waushara 18%Marinette 15% Winnebago 10%
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National Adult Literacy Assessments1993/2003 College Grads Compared
Prose Proficiency 4-year Graduates & Graduate Degrees
1993 2003 91% 72%
Source: U.S. Department of Education
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WisconsinCollege Graduates(Adults Age 25+)
25%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2006
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Ratio of Science & Engineering Degrees to 24-Year-Old Population
0
2
4
6
8
10
U.K S. Korea Germany Japan Canada U.S.
Council on Competitiveness, 2000
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U.S. Aging by Occupations
Occupations Aging WorkforceEngineers & Scientists 52% are over age 50
Government Workers 44% are 45 years +
Skilled Machinists Average age is 50
Construction Workers Average age is 47
Nurses 47% retiring over next 7 years
Manufacturing Managers 50% retiring over next 7 years
Federal Workforce 40% retiring by 2010
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U.S. Jobs Shifts 2000-2020(In Millions)
Job Categories 2000 2010 2020
Professionals/Executives 44 52 60Sales, Technical 42 50 60Tech Support/ Skilled Craft 22 29 43Low End Service 20 25 27Other Low Skill Jobs 24 21 17
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005
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U.S. Labor MarketJobs 2004-2014
Category NewReplace-ment
% of Total Total
All Jobs 18.9M 35.7M 65% 54.6MComputer Tech. 967K 422K 30% 1,389MEngineers 195K 312K 62% 507KSkilled Trades 699K 1.1M 61% 1.8MTeachers 1.7M 1.8M 51% 3.5M
Source: Daniel E. Hecker, U.S. Dept. of Labor, 2005
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U.S. Labor MarketJobs 2004-2014
Category NewReplace-ment
% of Total Total
Nurses 703K 497K 41% 1.2MMDs 136K 76K 36% 212KDentists 20K 26K 57% 46KHealth Techs 592K 446K 45% 1.0M
Source: Daniel E. Hecker, U.S. Dept. of Labor, 2005
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U.S. Workforce
1. Techno-Peasants (50%)2. The Walking Dead (25%)3. Smart People (25%)
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U.S. Techno-Peasant Numbers• 25.4M – Age 18-64 have not completed high
school (or equivalent)• 8.1M – Have dropped out before 9th grade• 28.8M – With a high school diploma or less are
not earning living wages• 8.3M – Age 18-64 with high school diplomas or
less have difficulty speaking English or speak no English at all
• 1.5M – Included in this group are in state & federal prisons
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U.S. Talent Challenge
2010-2020 Jobs vs. Today’s Workforce75% High Pay 25% of WorkersRequire Career Prepared forPrep. Career-Based
Jobs
25% Low-Pay 75% of Workers($10-12 hr.) Prepared forLow-Skill Jobs NothingSource: Edward E. Gordon, 2010
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10 Hardest-To-Fill Jobs in the U.S.1. Sales Representative2. Teacher3. Mechanic4. Technician5. Management/Executive6. Truck Driver7. Driver/Delivery8. Accountant9. Laborer10. Machine OperatorSource: Manpower, 2007
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U.S. Labor MarketTalent Shortages 2010-2020
Category ShortfallAll Jobs 3M-6.1MNurses 340K-1MDoctors 55K-200KHealth Technicians 200K-400KInformation Technology 500K-1MEngineers 50K-250KTeachers 500K-1MScientists 100K-200KSources: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Professional Associations
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Increases in Wages 2007
United States +4.5%
India/China +20%
“In-Shoring”
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Technology Globalization
The 2010 Meltdown
Demographics Education andCareer Skills
EmploymentHigh Wage/High Skill
orLow/Wage/Low Skill
EconomyExpands or Contracts
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Agenda2010 Solutions
1. Business Culture Change2. Career Culture Change3. Mobilizing Community Culture Change4. The 2010 Challenge & Beyond
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Business Culture Change
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Future Workforce Implications
• Slower labor force growth will increase pressure for participation of all labor force segments
• Technological advances may enable more labor force participation of persons with disabilities
• Various accommodations could increase the participation of older people, women with children, persons with disabilities, etc.
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What Business Needs:
A Measurable Definable Processthat is Transferable
Return-on-Investment (ROI)
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How Innovation Happens
Information(Data, Facts)
Memorization Comprehension Applied Thinking
InputsKnowledge
(Insight)Wisdom(Ideas)
Learning InnovationUnder-standing
Activities
Outcomes
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The Sixth Discipline’s“ Winning Formula”
High-Tech Highly Increased IncreasedWorkplace + Educated = People + Profit
Workers Productivity
Fewer complex For the amountmachines do produced & levelmore work of quality
For the amount Lower fixed laborproduced & level costs at comparableof quality world productivity
cost levels
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Career Culture Change
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Human Ability Areas1. Linguistics2. Logical-Mathematical3. Spatial4. Musical5. Bodily Fine-Gross Motor6. Interpersonal7. IntrapersonalSource: Robert J. Sternberg, 1996
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Q. What is a NGO? A. An intermediary agency that
builds a network.
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Career Culture Education Culture
4. The 2010 Challenge and Beyond
Education Prep.and
Lifelong Learning
Career and JobAlternatives
EmploymentHigh Wage/High Skill
orLow/Wage/Low Skill
Business Culture
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The “C” (Culture) FactorCulture X Literacy = Education X Marketplace = GDP
C = A nation’s attitudes & motivation on the importance of personal learning & applying it throughout life.
L = Personal reading practices & formal schooling.E = The “critical mass” of a nation’s knowledge.M = The socioeconomic forces driving business,
government and non-profit activities.GDP = Gross Domestic Product: The wealth of a nation.
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Business Educators
The 2010 Solution
EmploymentHigh Wage/High Skill
EconomyExpands
Labor
NGOIntermediary Agency
Liberal Arts Education& Career Prep.
Incumbent WorkerLifelong Learning
Parents & Students Government
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